961 resultados para seasonal effects
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The Rio de la Plata waters form a low salinity tongue that affects the circulation, stratification and the distributions of nutrients and biological species over a wide extent of the adjacent continental shelf. The plume of coastal waters presents a seasonal meridional displacement reaching lower latitudes (28,S) during austral winter and 32 degrees S during summer. Historical data suggests that the wind causes the alongshore shift, with southwesterly (SW) winds forcing the plume to lower latitudes in winter while summer dominant northeasterly (NE) winds force its southward retreat. To establish the connection between wind and outflow variations on the distribution of the coastal waters, we conducted two quasi-synoptic surveys in the region of Plata influence on the continental shelf and slope of southeastern South America, between Mar del Plata, Argentina and the northern coast of Santa Catarina, Brazil. We observed that: (A) SW winds dominating in winter force the northward spreading of the plume to low latitudes even during low river discharge periods; (B) NE winds displace the plume southward and spread the low salinity waters offshore over the entire width of the continental shelf east of the Plata estuary. The southward retreat of the plume in summer leads to a volume decrease of low salinity waters over the shelf. This volume is compensated by an increase of Tropical waters, which dominate the northern shelf. The subsurface transition between Subantarctic and Subtropical Shelf Waters, the Subtropical Shelf Front, and the subsurface water mass distribution, however, present minor seasonal variations. Along shore winds also influence the dynamics and water mass variations along the continental shelf area. In areas under the influence of river discharge, Subtropical Shelf Waters are kept away from the coastal region. When low salinity waters retreat southward, NE winds induce a coastal upwelling system near Santa Marta Cape. In summer, solar radiation promotes the establishment of a strong thermocline that increases buoyancy and further enhances the offshore displacement of low salinity waters under the action of NE winds. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A non-hierarchical K-means algorithm is used to cluster 47 years (1960–2006) of 10-day HYSPLIT backward trajectories to the Pico Mountain (PM) observatory on a seasonal basis. The resulting cluster centers identify the major transport pathways and collectively comprise a long-term climatology of transport to the observatory. The transport climatology improves our ability to interpret the observations made there and our understanding of pollution source regions to the station and the central North Atlantic region. I determine which pathways dominate transport to the observatory and examine the impacts of these transport patterns on the O3, NOy, NOx, and CO measurements made there during 2001–2006. Transport from the U.S., Canada, and the Atlantic most frequently reaches the station, but Europe, east Africa, and the Pacific can also contribute significantly depending on the season. Transport from Canada was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in spring and winter, and transport from the Pacific was uncorrelated with the NAO. The highest CO and O3 are observed during spring. Summer is also characterized by high CO and O3 and the highest NOy and NOx of any season. Previous studies at the station attributed the summer time high CO and O3 to transport of boreal wildfire emissions (for 2002–2004), and boreal fires continued to affect the station during 2005 and 2006. The particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate anthropogenic and biomass-burning CO tracer values at the station in an attempt to identify the regions responsible for the high CO and O3 observations during spring and biomass-burning impacts in summer.
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Fifteen beef cow-calf producers in southern Iowa were selected based on locality, management level, historical date of grazing initiation and desire to participate in the project. In 1997 and 1998, all producers kept records of production and economic data using the Integrated Resource Management-Standardized Performance Analysis (IRM-SPA) records program. At the initiation of grazing on each farm in 1997 and 1998, Julian date, degree-days, cumulative precipitation, and soil moisture, phosphorus, and potassium concentrations were determined. Also determined were pH, temperature, and load-bearing capacity; and forage mass, sward height, morphology and dry matter concentration. Over the grazing season, forage production, measured both by cumulative mass and sward height, forage in vitro digestible dry matter concentration, and crude protein concentration were determined monthly. In the fall of 1996 the primary species in pastures on farms used in this project were cool-season grasses, which composed 76% of the live forage whereas legumes and weeds composed 8.3 and 15.3%, respectively. The average number of paddocks was 4.1, reflecting a low intensity rotational stocking system on most farms. The average dates of grazing initiation were May 5 and April 29 in 1997 and 1998, respectively, with standard deviations of 14.8 and 14.1 days. Because the average soil moisture of 23% was dry and did not differ between years, it seems that most producers delayed the initiation of grazing to avoid muddy conditions by initiating grazing at a nearly equal soil moisture. However, Julian date, degree-days, soil temperature and morphology index at grazing initiation were negatively related to seasonal forage production, measured as mass or sward height, in 1998. And forage mass and height at grazing initiation were negatively related to seasonal forage production, measured as sward height, in 1997. Moreover, the concentrations of digestible dry matter at the initiation of and during the grazing season and the concentrations of crude protein during the grazing season were lower than desired for optimal animal performance. Because the mean seasonal digestible dry matter concentration was negatively related to initial forage mass in 1997 and mean seasonal crude proteins concentrations were negatively related to the Julian date, degree-days, and morphology indeces in both years, it seems that delaying the initiation of grazing until pasture soils are not muddy, is limiting the quality as well as the quantity of pasture forage. In 1997, forage production and digestibility were positively related to the soil phosphorus concentration. Soil potassium concentration was positively related to forage digestibility in 1997 and forage production and crude protein concentration in 1998. Increasing the number of paddocks increased forage production, measured as sward height, in 1997, and forage digestible dry matter concentration in 1998. Increasing yields or the concentrations of digestible dry matter or crude protein of pasture forage reduced the costs of purchased feed per cow.
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This research first evaluated the effects of urban wildland interface on reproductive biology of the Big Pine Partridge Pea, Chamaecrista keyensis, an understory herb that is endemic to Big Pine Key, Florida. I found that C. keyensis was self-compatible, but depended on bees for seed set. Furthermore, individuals of C. keyensis in urban habitats suffered higher seed predation and therefore set fewer seeds than forest interior plants. ^ I then focused on the effects of fire at different times of the year, summer (wet) and winter (dry), on the population dynamics and population viability of C. keyensis. I found that C. keyensis population recovered faster after winter burns and early summer burns (May–June) than after late summer burns (July–September) due to better survival and seedling recruitment following former fires. Fire intensity had positive effects on reproduction of C. keyensis. In contrast, no significant fire intensity effects were found on survival, growth, and seedling recruitment. This indicated that better survival and seedling recruitment following winter and early summer burns (compared with late summer burns) were due to the reproductive phenology of the plant in relation to fires rather than differences in fire intensity. Deterministic population modeling showed that time since fire significantly affected the finite population growth rates (λ). Particularly, recently burned plots had the largest λ. In addition, effects of timing of fires on λ were most pronounced the year of burn, but not the subsequent years. The elasticity analyses suggested that maximizing survival is an effective way to minimize the reduction in finite population growth rate the year of burn. Early summer fires or dry-season fires may achieve this objective. Finally, stochastic simulations indicated that the C. keyensis population had lower extinction risk and population decline probability if burned in the winter than in the late summer. A fire frequency of approximately 7 years would create the lowest extinction probability for C. keyensis. A fire management regime including a wide range of burning seasons may be essential for the continued existence of C. keyensis and other endemic species of pine rockland on Big Pine Key. ^
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Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.
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This study focuses on weather effects on daily bus ridership in Brisbane, given bus’ dominance in this city. The weather pattern of Brisbane varies by season according to its sub-tropical climate characteristics. Bus is prone to inclement weather condition as it shares the road system with general traffic. Moreover, bus stops generally offer less or sometimes no protection from adverse weather. Hence, adverse weather conditions such as rain are conjectured to directly impact on daily travel behaviour patterns. There has been limited Australian research on the impact of weather on daily transit ridership. This study investigates the relationship between rainy day and daily bus ridership for the period of 2010 to 2012. Overall, rainfall affects negatively with varying impacts on different transit groups. However, this analysis confirmed a positive relationship between consecutive rainy days (rain continuing for 3 or more days). A possible explanation could be that people may switch their transport mode to bus to avoid high traffic congestion and higher accident potentiality on rainy days. Also, Brisbane’s segregated busway (BRT) corridor works favourably towards this mode choice. Our study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour, particularly mode choice behaviour under adverse weather conditions.
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This study examined the short-term effects of temperature on cardiovascular hospital admissions (CHA) in the largest tropical city in Southern Vietnam. We applied Poisson time-series regression models with Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) to examine the temperature-CHA association while adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of the week, holidays, and humidity. The threshold temperature and added effects of heat waves were also evaluated. The exposure-response curve of temperature-CHA reveals a J-shape relationship with a threshold temperature of 29.6 °C. The delayed effects temperature-CHA lasted for a week (0–5 days). The overall risk of CHA increased 12.9% (RR, 1.129; 95%CI, 0.972–1.311) during heatwave events, which were defined as temperature ≥ the 99th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days. The modification roles of gender and age were inconsistent and non-significant in this study. An additional prevention program that reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease in relation to high temperatures should be developed.
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This study focuses on the effects of weather on daily bus ridership in Brisbane, given the dominance of buses in that city. The weather pattern of Brisbane varies by season according to its subtropical climate characteristics. Bus operation is affected by inclement weather conditions, as buses share the road system with general traffic. Moreover, bus stops generally offer little, or sometimes no, protection from adverse weather. Hence, adverse weather conditions such as rain are thought to directly impact on daily travel behaviour patterns. There has been limited Australian research on the impact of weather on daily transit ridership. This study investigates the relationship between rainy days and daily bus ridership for the period 2010 to 2012. Overall, rainfall has a negative effect, with varying impacts on different transit groups. However, this analysis confirmed a positive relationship between consecutive rainy days (rain continuing for 3 or more days). A possible explanation could be that people switch their transport mode to bus to avoid high traffic congestion and higher accident potentiality on rainy days. Also, Brisbane’s segregated busway corridor works favourably towards this mode choice. The findings of our study enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour, particularly mode-choice behaviour, under adverse weather conditions.
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This paper reports an experiment undertaken to examine the impact of burning in spring together with reduced grazing pressure on the dynamics of H. contortus and Aristida spp. In H. contortus pasture in south-eastern Queensland. The overall results indicate that spring burning in combination with reduced grazing pressure had no marked effect on the density of either grass species. This was attributed to 2 factors. Firstly, extreme drought conditions restricted any increase in H. contortus seedling establishment despite the presence of an adequate soil seed bank prior to summer; and secondly, some differences occurred in the response to fire of the diverse taxonomic groupings in the species of Aristida spp. present at the study site. This study concluded that it is necessary to identify appropriate taxonomic units within the Aristida genus and that, where appropriate, burning in spring to manage pasture composition should be conducted under favorable rainfall conditions using seasonal forecasting indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index
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The variation in liveweight gain in grazing beef cattle as influenced by pasture type, season and year effects has important economic implications for mixed crop-livestock systems and the ability to better predict such variation would benefit beef producers by providing a guide for decision making. To identify key determinants of liveweight change of Brahman-cross steers grazing subtropical pastures, measurements of pasture quality and quantity, and diet quality in parallel with liveweight were made over two consecutive grazing seasons (48 and 46 weeks, respectively), on mixed Clitoria ternatea/grass, Stylosanthes seabrana/grass and grass swards (grass being a mixture of Bothriochloa insculpta cv. Bisset, Dichanthium sericeum and Panicum maximum var. trichoglume cv. Petrie). Steers grazing the legume-based pastures had the highest growth rate and gained between 64 and 142 kg more than those grazing the grass pastures in under 12 months. Using an exponential model, green leaf mass, green leaf %, adjusted green leaf % (adjusted for inedible woody legume stems), faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy predictions of diet crude protein and diet dry matter digestibility, accounted for 77, 74, 80, 63 and 60%, respectively, of the variation in daily weight gain when data were pooled across pasture types and grazing seasons. The standard error of the regressions indicated that 95% prediction intervals were large (+/- 0.42-0.64 kg/head.day) suggesting that derived regression relationships have limited practical application for accurately estimating growth rate. In this study, animal factors, especially compensatory growth effects, appeared to have a major influence on growth rate in relation to pasture and diet attributes. It was concluded that predictions of growth rate based only on pasture or diet attributes are unlikely to be accurate or reliable. Nevertheless, key pasture attributes such as green leaf mass and green leaf% provide a robust indication of what proportion of the potential growth rate of the grazing animals can be achieved.
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Stylosanthes humilis swards grown at Brisbane in irrigated boxes were defoliated (about 60 per cent removal of tops) at floral initiation, first flower appearance, or advanced flowering stages ; seed yield was 45, 16, and 14 per cent respectively of seed yield in undefoliated swards. Decreased yields were primarily due to poor seed set of florets, were also associated with reduced inflorescence density and floret number per inflorescence, and occurred despite increases (in some defoliation treatments) in seed size, leaf growth rate, and differentiation of leaves and branches. Total seasonal plant growth was independent of defoliation treatment.
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Alternaria leaf blotch and fruit spot caused by Alternaria spp. cause annual losses to the Australian apple industry. Control options are limited, mainly due to a lack of understanding of the disease cycle. Therefore, this study aimed to determine potential sources of Alternaria spp. inoculum in the orchard and examine their relative contribution throughout the production season. Leaf residue from the orchard floor, canopy leaves, twigs and buds were collected monthly from three apple orchards for two years and examined for the number of spores on their surface. In addition, the effects of climatic factors on spore production dynamics in each plant part were examined. Although all four plant parts tested contributed to the Alternaria inoculum in the orchard, significant higher numbers of spores were obtained from leaf residue than the other plant parts supporting the hypothesis that overwintering of Alternaria spp. occurred mainly in leaf residue and minimally on twigs and buds. The most significant period of spore production on leaf residue occurred from dormancy until bloom and on canopy leaves and twigs during the fruit growth stage. Temperature was the single most significant factor influencing the amount of Alternaria inoculum and rainfall and relative humidity showed strong associations with temperature influencing the spore production dynamics in Australian orchards. The practical implications of this study include the eradication of leaf residue from the orchard floor and sanitation of the canopy after harvest to remove residual spores from the trees.
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The Baltic Sea was studied with respect to selected organic contaminants and their ecotoxicology. The research consisted of analyses of total hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, bile metabolites, hepatic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). The contaminants were measured from various matrices, such as seawater, sediment and biota. The methods of analysis were evaluated and refined to comparability of the results. Polyaromatic hydrocarbons, originating from petroleum, are known to be among the most harmful substances to the marine environment. In Baltic subsurface water, seasonal dependence of the total hydrocarbon concentrations (THCs) was seen. Although concentrations of parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment surface varied between 64 and 5161 ug kg-1 (dw), concentrations above 860 ug kg-1 (dw) were found in all the studied sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. Concentrations commonly considered to substantially increase the risk of liver disease and reproductive impairment in fish, as well as potential effects on growth (above 1000 ug kg-1 dw), were found in all the studied sub-basins of the Baltic Sea except Kattegat. Thus, considerable pollution in sediments was indicated. In bivalves, the sums of 12 PAHs varied on a wet weight basis between 44 and 298 ug kg-1 (ww). The predominant PAHs were high molecular weight and the PAH profiles of M. balthica differed from those found in sediment from the same area. The PAHs were both pyrolytic and petrogenic in origin, and a contribution from diesel engines was found, which indicates pollution of the Baltic Sea, most likely caused by the steadily increasing shipping in the area. The HPLC methods developed for hepatic EROD activity and bile metabolite measurements proved to be fast and suitable for the study of biological effects. A mixed function oxygenase enzyme system in Baltic Sea perch collected from the Gulf of Finland was induced slightly: EROD activity in perch varied from 0.30 14 pmol min-1 mg-1 protein. This range can be considered to be comparable to background values. Recent PAH exposure was also indicated by enhanced levels (213 and 1149 ug kg-1) of the bile metabolite 1-hydroxypyrene. No correlation was indicated between hepatic EROD activity and concentration of 1-hydroxypyrene in bile. PCBs and OCPs were observed in Baltic Sea sediment, bivalves and herring. Sums of seven CBs in surface sediment (0 5 cm) ranged from 0.04 to 6.2 ug kg-1 (dw) and sums of three DDTs from 0.13 to 5.0 ug kg-1 (dw). The highest levels of contaminants were found in the most eastern area of the Gulf of Finland where the highest total carbon and nitrogen content was found and where the lowest percentage proportion of p,p -DDT was found. The highest concentrations of CBs and the lowest concentration of DDTs were found in M. balthica from the Gulf of Finland. The highest levels of DDTs were found in M. balthica from the Hanö Bight, which is the outer part of the Bornholm Basin close to the Swedish mainland. In bivalves, the sums of seven CBs were 72 108 ug kg-1 (lw) and the sums of three DDTs were 66 139 ug kg-1 (lw). Results from temporal trend monitoring showed, that during the period 1985 2002, the concentrations of seven CBs in two-year-old female Baltic herring were clearly decreased, from 9 16 to 2 6 ug kg-1 (ww) in the northern Baltic Sea. At the same time, concentrations of three DDTs declined from 8 15 to 1 5 ug kg-1 (ww). The total concentration of the fat-soluble CBs and DDTs in Baltic herring muscle was shown to be age-dependent; the average concentrations in ten-year-old Baltic herring were three to five-fold higher than in two-year-old herring. In Baltic herring and bivalves, as well as in surface sediments, CB 138 and CB153 were predominant among CBs, whereas among DDTs p,p'-DDD predominated in sediment and p,p'-DDE in bivalves and Baltic herring muscle. Baltic Sea sediments are potential sources of contaminants that may become available for bioaccumulation. Based on ecotoxicological assessment criteria, cause for concern regarding CBs in sediments was indicated for the Gulf of Finland and the northern Baltic Proper, and for the northern Baltic Sea regarding CBs in Baltic herring more than two years old. Statistical classification of selected organic contaminants indicated high-level contamination for p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDE, total DDTs, HCB, CB118 and CB153 in muscle of Baltic herring in age groups two to ten years; in contrast, concentrations of a-HCH and g-HCH were found to be moderate. The concentrations of DDTs and CBs in bivalves is sufficient to cause biological effects, and demonstrates that long-term biological effects are still possible in the case of DDTs in the Hanö Bight.
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Strong statistical evidence was found for differences in tolerance to natural infections of Tobacco streak virus (TSV) in sunflower hybrids. Data from 470 plots involving 23 different sunflower hybrids tested in multiple trials over 5 years in Australia were analysed. Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Logistic Regression model for analysis provided: (i) a rigorous method for investigating the relative effects of hybrid, seasonal rainfall and proximity to inoculum source on the incidence of severe TSV disease; (ii) a natural method for estimating the probability distributions of disease incidence in different hybrids under historical rainfall conditions; and (iii) a method for undertaking all pairwise comparisons of disease incidence between hybrids whilst controlling the familywise error rate without any drastic reduction in statistical power. The tolerance identified in field trials was effective against the main TSV strain associated with disease outbreaks, TSV-parthenium. Glasshouse tests indicate this tolerance to also be effective against the other TSV strain found in central Queensland, TSV-crownbeard. The use of tolerant germplasm is critical to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower in this region. We found strong statistical evidence that rainfall during the early growing months of March and April had a negative effect on the incidence of severe infection with greatly reduced disease incidence in years that had high rainfall during this period.
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In aquatic systems, the ability of both the predator and prey to detect each other may be impaired by turbidity. This could lead to significant changes in the trophic interactions in the food web of lakes. Most fish use their vision for predation and the location of prey can be highly influenced by light level and clarity of the water environment. Turbidity is an optical property of water that causes light to be scattered and absorbed by particles and molecules. Turbidity is highly variable in lakes, due to seasonal changes in suspended sediments, algal blooms and wind-driven suspension of sediments especially in shallow waters. There is evidence that human activity has increased erosion leading to increased turbidity in aquatic systems. Turbidity could also play a significant role in distribution of fish. Turbidity could act as a cover for small fish and reduce predation risk. Diel horizontal migration by fish is common in shallow lakes and is considered as consequences of either optimal foraging behaviour for food or as a trade-off between foraging and predator avoidance. In turbid lakes, diel horizontal migration patterns could differ since turbidity can act as a refuge itself and affect the predator-prey interactions. Laboratory experiments were conducted with perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) and white bream (Abramis björkna (L.)) to clarify the effects of turbidity on their feeding. Additionally to clarify the effects of turbidity on predator preying on different types of prey, pikeperch larvae (Sander lucioperca (L.)), Daphnia pulex (Leydig), Sida crystallina (O.F. Müller), and Chaoborus flavicans (Meigen) were used as prey in different experiments. To clarify the role of turbidity in distribution and diel horizontal migration of perch, roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.)) and white bream, field studies were conducted in shallow turbid lakes. A clear and a turbid shallow lake were compared to investigate distribution of perch and roach in these two lakes in a 15-year study period. Feeding efficiency of perch and white bream was not significantly affected with increasing clay turbidity up to 50 NTU. The perch experiments with pikeperch larvae suggested that clay turbidity could act as a refuge especially at turbidity levels higher than 50 NTU. Perch experiments with different prey types suggested that pikeperch larvae probably use turbidity as a refuge better compared to Daphnia. Increase in turbidity probably has stronger affect on perch predating on plant-attached prey. The main findings of the thesis show that turbidity can play a significant role in distribution of fish. Perch and roach could use turbidity as refuge when macrophytes disappear while small perch may also use high turbidity as refuge when macrophytes are present. Floating-leaved macrophytes are probably good refuges for small fish in clay-turbid lakes and provide a certain level of turbidity and not too complex structure for refuge. The results give light to the predator-prey interactions in turbid environments. Turbidity of water should be taken in to account when studying the diel horizontal migrations and distribution of fish in shallow lakes.