Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

"Global Change" und das Meer als Nahrungsquelle

The potential importance of marine produetion as a protein ressource for a growing human population can hardly be overestimated. Climatic changes in the marine environment may affect marine production in a significant way. Increasing levels of UV-B may decrease primary production and thus diminish the food base for harvestable marine ressources. Direct effects on early stages of fishes may occur. Temperature changes can lead to additional mortality in the early phase of life histories of fishes. In spite of the potentially negative scenario, actual effects of global change on the ressources have not been detected so far. The marine organisms dispose of a significant level of pre-adaptation to changes of environmental factors both on a seasonal and an interannual scale. Effects on marine life may therefore be less dramatic than those on terrestrial systems, which are more directly linked with the exponentially growing human population.

Bassenthwaite Lake: a general assessment of environmental and biological features and their susceptibility to change

Bassenthwaite (Lake) is one of the larger Cumbrian lakes, certainly one of the most distinctive, and of considerable conservation and amenity value. Although its shores lack sizeable settlements, its main inflow receives sewage effluent from a major tourist centre (Keswick) and is subject to episodic floods. These influences, the growing development of leisure activities at the lake (e.g. sailing, time-share units), and recent road-construction, have led to past appraisals of ecological impacts and lake management. The lake has not been the subject of intense and long-term ecological study, but much scattered information exists that is relevant to future management decisions. In the present Report, commissioned by North West Water, such information - published and unpublished - is surveyed. Especial attention is given to evidence bearing on susceptibility to change, affecting the lake environment and its biota or species of conservation interest. Extensive use has been made of the results of a recent (1986-7) seasonal survey by the FBA.

A general assessment of environmental and biological features of Windermere and their susceptibility to change

Bassenthwaite (Lake) is one of the larger Cumbrian lakes, certainly one of the most distinctive, and of considerable conservation and amenity value. Although its shores lack sizeable settlements, its main inflow receives sewage effluent from a major tourist centre (Keswick) and is subject to episodic floods. These influences, the growing development of leisure activities at the lake (e.g. sailing, time-share units), and recent road-construction, have led to past appraisals of ecological impacts and lake management. The lake has not been the subject of intense and long-term ecological study, but much scattered information exists that is relevant to future management decisions. In the present Report, commissioned by North West Water, such information - published and unpublished - is surveyed. Especial attention is given to evidence bearing on susceptibility to change, affecting the lake environment and its biota or species of conservation interest. Extensive use has been made of the results of a recent (1986-7) seasonal survey by the FBA.

Resilient livelihoods and food security in coastal aquatic agricultural systems: Investing in transformational change

Aquatic agricultural systems (AAS) are diverse production and livelihood systems where families cultivate a range of crops, raise livestock, farm or catch fish, gather fruits and other tree crops, and harness natural resources such as timber, reeds, and wildlife. Aquatic agricultural systems occur along freshwater floodplains, coastal deltas, and inshore marine waters, and are characterized by dependence on seasonal changes in productivity, driven by seasonal variation in rainfall, river flow, and/or coastal and marine processes. Despite this natural productivity, the farming, fishing, and herding communities who live in these systems are among the poorest and most vulnerable in their countries and regions. This report provides an overview of the scale and scope of development challenges in coastal aquatic agricultural systems, their significance for poor and vulnerable communities, and the opportunities for partnership and investment that support efforts of these communities to secure resilient livelihoods in the face of multiple risks.

Change in Pacific Northwest coastal ecosystems. Proceedings of the Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystems Regional Study Workshop, August 73-14, 1996, Troutdale, Oregon

Over the past one hundred and fifty years, the landscape and ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest coastal region, already subject to many variable natural forces, have been profoundly affected by human activities. In virtually every coastal watershed from the Strait of Juan de Fuca to Cape Mendocino, settlement, exploitation and development of resou?-ces have altered natural ecosystems. Vast, complex forests that once covered the region have been largely replaced by tree plantations or converted to non-forest conditions. Narrow coastal valleys, once filled with wetlands and braided streams that tempered storm runoff and provided salmon habitat, were drained, filled, or have otherwise been altered to create land for agriculture and other uses. Tideflats and saltmarshes in both large and small estuaries were filled for industrial, commercial, and other urban uses. Many estuaries, including that of the Columbia River, have been channeled, deepened, and jettied to provide for safe, reliable navigation. The prodigious rainfall in the region, once buffered by dense vegetation and complex river and stream habitat, now surges down sirfiplified stream channels laden with increased burdens of sediment and debris. Although these and many other changes have occurred incrementally over time and in widely separated areas, their sum can now be seen to have significantly affected the natural productivity of the region and, as a consequence, changed the economic structure of its human communities. This activity has taken place in a region already shaped by many interacting and dynamic natural forces. Large-scale ocean circulation patterns, which vary over long time periods, determine the strength and location of currents along the coast, and thus affect conditions in the nearshore ocean and estuaries throughout the region. Periodic seasonal differences in the weather and ocean act on shorter time scales; winters are typically wet with storms from the southwest while summers tend to be dry with winds from the northwest. Some phenomena are episodic, such as El Nifio events, which alter weather, marine habitats, and the distribution and survival of marine organisms. Other oceanic and atmospheric changes operate more slowly; over time scales of decades, centuries, and longer. Episodic geologic events also punctuate the region, such as volcanic eruptions that discharge widespread blankets of ash, frequent minor earthquakes, and major subduction zone earthquakes each 300 to 500 years that release accumulated tectonic strain, dropping stretches of ocean shoreline, inundating estuaries and coastal valleys, and triggering landslides that reshape stream profiles. While these many natural processes have altered, sometimes dramatically, the Pacific Northwest coastal region, these same processes have formed productive marine and coastal ecosystems, and many of the species in these systems have adapted to the variable environmental conditions of the region to ensure their long-term survival.

A new growth model for red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) that accommodates seasonal and ontogenic changes in growth rates

The red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) is a popular gamefish found throughout the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and along the eastern seaboard as far north as Massachusetts. Juvenile red drum grow extremely rapidly, especially during the warmer months, but adults grow very little. In fact, the change in growth with age is so abrupt that the standard von Bertalanffy curve has proven inadequate— the predicted lengths of younger fish are generally too large and the predicted lengths of older fish too small (see Beckman et al., 1988; Murphy and Taylor, 1990).

Seasonal variations in the biochemical composition of the clam Tellina angulata from Bombay

Change in the proximate composition and energy value of Tellina angulata from Bombay were studied for a period of 15 months. Irrespective of sex protein as percentage at dry weight ranged from 39.04 to 75.72, carbohydrate 4.83 to 24. 89, lipid 7.41 to 19.81, carbon 21.99 to 39.89 and ash 4.01 to 27.56. Sexwise protein and lipid were maximum in male and carbohydrate in female. Seasonal variation in the proximate composition of the species was well defined.

Assessing seasonal precipitation trends in India using parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques

This paper provides an insight into the long-term trends of the four seasonal and annual precipitations in various climatological regions and sub-regions in India. The trends were useful to investigate whether Indian seasonal rainfall is changing in terms of magnitude or location-wise. Trends were assessed over the period of 1954-2003 using parametric ordinary least square fits and non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The trend significance was tested at the 95% confidence level. Apart from the trends for individual climatological regions in India and the average for the whole of India, trends were also specifically determined for the possible smaller geographical areas in order to understand how different the trends would be from the bigger spatial scales. The smaller geographical regions consist of the whole southwestern continental state of Kerala. It was shown that there are decreasing trends in the spring and monsoon rainfall and increasing trends in the autumn and winter rainfalls. These changes are not always homogeneous over various regions, even in the very short scales implying a careful regional analysis would be necessary for drawing conclusions regarding agro-ecological or other local projects requiring change in rainfall information. Furthermore, the differences between the trend magnitudes and directions from the two different methods are significantly small and fall well within the significance limit for all the cases investigated in Indian regions (except where noted). © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Effects of seasonal succession and water pollution on the protozoan community structure in an eutrophic lake

The purpose of the research is to study the seasonal succession of protozoa community and the effect of water quality on the protozoa community to characterize biochemical processes occurring at a eutrophic Lake Donghu, a large shallow lake in Wuhan City, China. Samples of protozoa communities were obtained monthly at three stations by PFU (polyurethane foam unit) method over a year. Synchronously, water samples also were taken from the stations for the water chemical quality analysis. Six major variables were examined in a principal component analysis (PCA), which indicate the fast changes of water quality in this station I and less within-year variation and a comparatively stable water quality in stations II and III. The community data were analyzed using multivariate techniques, and we show that clusters are rather mixed and poorly separated, suggesting that the community structure is changing gradually, giving a slight merging of clusters form the summer to the autumn and the autumn to the winter. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to infer the relationship between water quality variables and phytoplankton community structure, which changed substantially over the survey period. From the analysis of cluster and CCA, coupled by community pollution value (CPV), it is concluded that the key factors driving the change in protozoa community composition in Lake Donghu was water qualities rather than seasons. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial distributions and seasonal variations of particulate phosphorus in the Jiaozhou Bay in North China

Based oil the measurements of particulate phosphorus (PP) in the Jiaozhou Bay front May 2003 to April 2004, the spatial distribution, seasonal variation and biogeochemical characteristics of PP Were investigated to Understand the fates and roles of phosphorus in the Jiaozhou Bay ecosystem. The Concentration of the total PP ranged from 0. 07 to 2. 09 mu mol/dm(3). The concentration of POP was from 0. 01 to 1. 83 mu mol/dm(3), with all average of with all average of 0. 33 mu mol/dm(3), which accounted for 50. 4% in total PP. In general, file concentrations of IT in surface water show obvious seasonal variations in the Jiaozhou Bay. POP was the highest in spring, which derived front the accumulation of phyto-detritus and was the lowest ill autumn, which was decomposed into seawaters to participate the recycle of phosphorus. PIP was the highest in spring and summer and Was the lowest in autumn and winter. PLP Was Mainly influenced by river input in the inner bay lint POP derived front autochthonous source in the outer bay. Overkill, the concentrations of IT in the inner bay were higher than those in mouth and the Older bay. In the inner bay. the concentrations of IT with the area near the shore were higher than those in the center of the bay. Totally PP showed the decreasing trend with depth especially in spring and winter. The high value of PP emerged in 20 and 10 in Corresponding to summer and autumn, respectively. The changes of POP showed hysteretic effect compared with the changes of Chl a in the investigated year. However, according to the Change of Chl a, the second high value of POP which should be emerged ill October was missing due to the remineralization of POP and participation in the recycle of phosphorus, which lead to the high concentration of orthophosphate in seawaters.

Diurnal, seasonal and annual variation in net ecosystem CO2 exchange of an alpine shrubland on Qinghai-Tibetan plateau

Thus far, grassland ecosystem research has mainly been focused on low-lying grassland areas, whereas research on high-altitude grassland areas, especially on the carbon budget of remote areas like the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau is insufficient. To address this issue, flux of CO2 were measured over an alpine shrubland ecosystem (37 degrees 36'N, 101 degrees 18'E; 325 above sea level [a. s. l.]) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China, for 2 years (2003 and 2004) with the eddy covariance method. The vegetation is dominated by formation Potentilla fruticosa L. The soil is Mol-Cryic Cambisols. To interpret the biotic and abiotic factors that modulate CO2 flux over the course of a year we decomposed net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into its constituent components, and ecosystem respiration (R-eco). Results showed that seasonal trends of annual total biomass and NEE followed closely the change in leaf area index. Integrated NEE were -58.5 and -75.5 g C m(-2), respectively, for the 2003 and 2004 years. Carbon uptake was mainly attributed from June, July, August, and September of the growing season. In July, NEE reached seasonal peaks of similar magnitude (4-5 g C m(-2) day(-1)) each of the 2 years. Also, the integrated night-time NEE reached comparable peak values (1.5-2 g C m(-2) day(-1)) in the 2 years of study. Despite the large difference in time between carbon uptake and release (carbon uptake time < release time), the alpine shrubland was carbon sink. This is probably because the ecosystem respiration at our site was confined significantly by low temperature and small biomass and large day/night temperature difference and usually soil moisture was not limiting factor for carbon uptake. In general, R-eco was an exponential function of soil temperature, but with season-dependent values of Q(10). The temperature-dependent respiration model failed immediately after rain events, when large pulses of R-eco were observed. Thus, for this alpine shrubland in Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, the timing of rain events had more impact than the total amount of precipitation on ecosystem R-eco and NEE.

Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.

Use of Continuous Plankton Recorder information in support of marine management: applications in fisheries, environmental protection, and in the study of ecosystem response to environmental change

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey was conceived from the outset as a programme of applied research designed to assist the fishing industry. Its survival and continuing vigour after 70 years is a testament to its utility, which has been achieved in spite of great changes in our understanding of the marine environment and in our concerns over how to manage it. The CPR has been superseded in several respects by other technologies, such as acoustics and remote sensing, but it continues to provide unrivalled seasonal and geographic information about a wide range of zooplankton and phytoplankton taxa. The value of this coverage increases with time and provides the basis for placing recent observations into the context of long-term, large-scale variability and thus suggesting what the causes are likely to be. Information from the CPR is used extensively in judging environmental impacts and producing quality status reports (QSR); it has shown the distributions of fish stocks, which had not previously been exploited; it has pointed to the extent of ungrazed phytoplankton production in the North Atlantic, which was a vital element in establishing the importance of carbon sequestration by phytoplankton. The CPR continues to be the principal source of large-scale, long-term information about the plankton ecosystem of the North Atlantic. It has recently provided extensive information about the biodiversity of the plankton and about the distribution of introduced species. It serves as a valuable example for the design of future monitoring of the marine environment and it has been essential to the design and implementation of most North Atlantic plankton research.