Movable concrete median barrier: risk analysis of deflection into opposing traffic.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research, Development, and Technology, Washington, D.C.

Automotive manufacturers' cost/revenue, financial and risk analysis: projected impact of automobile manufacturing on the plastics industry. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Design risk analysis. Volume I: final report. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Safety and Traffic Operations Research and Development, McLean, Va.

Design risk analysis. Volume II: users guide. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Safety and Traffic Operations Research and Development, McLean, Va.

National Weather Service : closure of regional office not supported by risk analysis : report to Congressional requesters /

"B-277460"--P. 1.

Automotive manufacturer risk analysis: meeting the automotive fuel economy standard. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Project time risk analysis through simulation

An inherent weakness in the management of large scale projects is the failure to achieve the scheduled completion date. When projects are planned with the objective of time achievement, the initial planning plays a vital role in the successful achievement of project deadlines. Cost and quality are additional priorities when such projects are being executed. This article proposes a methodology for achieving time duration of a project through risk analysis with the application of a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodology is demonstrated using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline construction project.

Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

Planning for project control through risk analysis:a case of petroleum pipeline laying

Projects that are exposed to uncertain environments can be effectively controlled with the application of risk analysis during the planning stage. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, a multiattribute decision-making technique, can be used to analyse and assess project risks which are objective or subjective in nature. Among other advantages, the process logically integrates the various elements in the planning process. The results from risk analysis and activity analysis are then used to develop a logical contingency allowance for the project through the application of probability theory. The contingency allowance is created in two parts: (a) a technical contingency, and (b) a management contingency. This provides a basis for decision making in a changing project environment. Effective control of the project is made possible by the limitation of the changes within the monetary contingency allowance for the work package concerned, and the utilization of the contingency through proper appropriation. The whole methodology is applied to a pipeline-laying project in India, and its effectiveness in project control is demonstrated.

Emerging of human factor in risk analysis of home care service

Risk management in healthcare represents a group of various complex actions, implemented to improve the quality of healthcare services and guarantee the patients safety. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it can be controlled with different risk assessment methods derived from industrial applications and among these the Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is a largely used methodology. The main purpose of this work is the analysis of failure modes of the Home Care (HC) service provided by local healthcare unit of Naples (ASL NA1) to focus attention on human and non human factors according to the organization framework selected by WHO. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

Flood risk analysis of the White Oak Creek watershed in Oak Ridge, Tennessee using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 software

The purpose of this study was to determine the flooding potential of contaminated areas within the White Oak Creek watershed in the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. The watershed was analyzed with an integrated surface and subsurface numerical model based on MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software. The model was calibrated and validated using five decades of historical data. A series of simulations were conducted to determine the watershed response to 25 year, 100 year and 500 year precipitation forecasts; flooding maps were generated for those events. Predicted flood events were compared to Log Pearson III flood flow frequency values for validation. This investigation also provides an improved understanding of the water fluxes between the surface and subsurface subdomains as they affect flood frequencies. In sum, this study presents crucial information to further assess the environmental risks of potential mobilization of contaminants of concern during extreme precipitation events.