Is there a price puzzle in Brazil? An application of Bias-Corrected Bootstrap

Using data from the United States, Japan, Germany , United Kingdom and France, Sims (1992) found that positive innovations to shortterm interest rates led to sharp, persistent increases in the price level. The result was conÖrmed by other authors and, as a consequence of its non-expectable nature, was given the name "price puzzle" by Eichenbaum (1992). In this paper I investigate the existence of a price puzzle in Brazil using the same type of estimation and benchmark identiÖcation scheme employed by Christiano et al. (2000). In a methodological improvement over these studies, I qualify the results with the construction of bias-corrected bootstrap conÖdence intervals. Even though the data does show the existence of a statistically signiÖcant price puzzle in Brazil, it lasts for only one quarter and is quantitatively immaterial

Is there a price puzzle in Brazil? an application of bias- corrected bootstrap

Using data from the United States, Japan, Germany , United Kingdom and France, Sims (1992) found that positive innovations to shortterm interest rates led to sharp, persistent increases in the price leveI. The result was confirmed by other authors and, as a consequence of its non-expectable nature, was given the name "price puzzle" by Eichenbaum (1992). In this paper I investigate the existence of a price puzzle in Brazil using the same type of estimation and benchmark identification scheme employed by Christiano et aI. (2000). In a methodological improvement over these studies, I qualify the results with the construction of bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. Even though the data does show the existence of a statistically significant price puzzle in Brazil, it lasts for .only one quarter and is quantitatively immaterial.

Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval-censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval-censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can befitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum. The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.

Integrable aspects of the scaling q-state Potts models I: bound states and bootstrap closure

We discuss the q-state Potts models for q less than or equal to 4, in the scaling regimes close to their critical or tricritical points. Starting from the kink S-matrix elements proposed by Chim and Zamolodchikov, the bootstrap is closed for the scaling regions of all critical points, and for the tricritical points when 4 > q greater than or equal to 2. We also note a curious appearance of the extended last line of Freudenthal's magic square in connection with the Potts models. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of population profiles of two strains of the fly Megaselia scalaris (Diptera: Phoridae) by bootstrap simulation

A partir de perfis populacionais experimentais de linhagens do díptero forídeo Megaselia scalaris, foi determinado o número mínimo de perfis amostrais que devem ser repetidos, via processo de simulação bootstrap, para se ter uma estimativa confiável do perfil médio populacional e apresentar estimativas do erro-padrão como medida da precisão das simulações realizadas. Os dados originais são provenientes de populações experimentais fundadas com as linhagens SR e R4, com três réplicas cada, e que foram mantidas por 33 semanas pela técnica da transferência seriada em câmara de temperatura constante (25 ± 1,0ºC). A variável usada foi tamanho populacional e o modelo adotado para cada perfíl foi o de um processo estocástico estacionário. Por meio das simulações, os perfis de três populações experimentais foram amplificados, determinando-se, dessa forma, o tamanho mínimo de amostra. Fixado o tamanho de amostra, simulações bootstrap foram realizadas para construção de intervalos de confiança e comparação dos perfis médios populacionais das duas linhagens. Os resultados mostram que com o tamanho de amostra igual a 50 inicia-se o processo de estabilização dos valores médios.

Orthogonal projections and bootstrap resampling procedures in the study of infraspecific variation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bootstrap confidence regions for canonical variates: Application to studies of evolutionary differentiation

Theory recently developed to construct confidence regions based on the parametric bootstrap is applied to add inferential information to graphical displays of sample centroids in canonical variate analysis. Problems of morphometric differentiation among subspecies and species are addressed using numerical resampling procedures.

Métodos de bootstrap e aplicações em problemas biológicos

Pós-graduação em Matemática Universitária - IGCE

Intraspecific scaling of arterial blood pressure in the Burmese python

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Autonomic control of heart rate during orthostasis and the importance of orthostatic-tachycardia in the snake Python molurus

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Precision of distances and ordering of microsatellite markers in consensus linkage maps of chromosomes 1, 3 and 4 from two reciprocal chicken populations using bootstrap sampling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Acetaminophen as an Oral Toxicant for Nile Monitor Lizards (Varanus niloticus) and Burmese Pythons (Python molurus bivittatus)

Context. Invasive species are a growing global problem. Biological invasions can result in numerous harmful impacts on local ecologies, and non-native herpetofauna are frequently ignored. Nile monitor lizards (Varanus niloticus) and Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus, recently reassessed as Python bivittatus bivittatus), have become established in southern Florida. Both are large, semi-aquatic predators that pose serious threats to a variety of threatened and endangered species, as well as to the unique ecology of the area. Aims. Acetaminophen (CAS#103-90-2), a lethal oral toxicant for the invasive brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on Guam, was investigated as a possible toxicant in juvenile Burmese pythons and Nile monitors. Methods. Dead neonatal mouse (DNM) baits containing 0, 10, 20, or 40 mg acetaminophen were force-fed to Nile monitors, whereas DNM containing doses of 0, 20, 40, or 80 mg were freely consumed by Burmese pythons. Subjects were frequently observed post-treatment for general condition and position, with special attention paid to activity (if any), behaviour, respiration, bleeding, emesis, ataxia, and mortality. Key results. In Nile monitors, acetaminophen doses of 10, 20, or 40 mg resulted in 0, 50 and 100% mortality, respectively. In Burmese pythons, doses of 20, 40, or 80 mg resulted in 14.3, 85.7 and 100% mortality, respectively. No mortality was observed in control individuals of either species. A negative correlation between dosage (mg kg–1) and time-to-death was observed in both species. Dosages ranging from 522 to 2438 mg kg–1 and 263 to 703 mg kg–1 were uniformly lethal to monitors and pythons, respectively. Neither species exhibited signs of pain or discomfort following acetaminophen treatment. Conclusions. Acetaminophen is an effective toxicant in juvenile Nile monitors and Burmese pythons. Further investigation into acetaminophen toxicity in adults of these species is merited. Implications. Although further investigation into adult lethal dosages and strategies to optimize bait deployment while minimizing secondary hazards is required, acetaminophen may have a role to play in the control of these invasive species in Florida.

Bootstrap confidence intervals for industrial recurrent event data

Industrial recurrent event data where an event of interest can be observed more than once in a single sample unit are presented in several areas, such as engineering, manufacturing and industrial reliability. Such type of data provide information about the number of events, time to their occurrence and also their costs. Nelson (1995) presents a methodology to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for the cost and the number of cumulative recurrent events. Although this is a standard procedure, it can not perform well in some situations, in particular when the sample size available is small. In this context, computer-intensive methods such as bootstrap can be used to construct confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a technique based on the bootstrap method to have interval estimates for the cost and the number of cumulative events. One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is the possibility for its application in several areas and its easy computational implementation. In addition, it can be a better alternative than asymptotic-based methods to calculate confidence intervals, according to some Monte Carlo simulations. An example from the engineering area illustrates the methodology.