Value of renal cortical thickness as a predictor of renal function impairment in chronic renal disease patients

Objective: To determine the presence of linear relationship between renal cortical thickness, bipolar length, and parenchymal thickness in chronic kidney disease patients presenting with different estimated glomerular filtration rates (GFRs) and to assess the reproducibility of these measurements using ultrasonography. Materials and Methods: Ultrasonography was performed in 54 chronic renal failure patients. The scans were performed by two independent and blinded radiologists. The estimated GFR was calculated using the Cockcroft-Gault equation. Interobserver agreement was calculated and a linear correlation coefficient (r) was determined in order to establish the relationship between the different renal measurements and estimated GFR. Results: The correlation between GFR and measurements of renal cortical thickness, bipolar length, and parenchymal thickness was, respectively, moderate (r = 0.478; p < 0.001), poor (r = 0.380; p = 0.004), and poor (r = 0.277; p = 0.116). The interobserver agreement was considered excellent (0.754) for measurements of cortical thickness and bipolar length (0.833), and satisfactory for parenchymal thickness (0.523). Conclusion: The interobserver reproducibility for renal measurements obtained was good. A moderate correlation was observed between estimated GFR and cortical thickness, but bipolar length and parenchymal thickness were poorly correlated.

Localization of metastasis within the sentinel lymph node biopsies: a predictor of additional axillary spread of breast cancer?

PURPOSE: To explore the relationship between morphological characteristics and histologic localization of metastasis within sentinel lymph nodes (SLN) and axillary spread in women with breast cancer. METHODS: We selected 119 patients with positive SLN submitted to complete axillary lymph node dissection from July 2002 to March 2007. We retrieved the age of patients and the primary tumor size. In the primary tumor, we evaluated histologic and nuclear grade, and peritumoral vascular invasion (PVI). In SLNs we evaluated the size of metastasis, their localization in the lymph node, number of foci, number of involved lymph nodes, and extranodal extension. RESULTS: Fifty-one (42.8%) patients had confirmed additional metastasis in non-sentinel lymph nodes (NLSN). High histologic grade, PVI, intraparenchymatous metastasis, extranodal neoplastic extension and size of metastasis were associated with positive NLSN. SLN metastasis affecting the capsule were associated to low risk incidence of additional metastasis. After multivariate analysis, PVI and metastasis size in the SLN remained as the most important risk factors for additional metastasis. CONCLUSIONS:The risk of additional involvement of NSLN is higher in patients with PVI and it increases progressively according the histologic localization in the lymph node, from capsule, where the afferent lymphatic channel arrives, to the opposite side of capsule promoting the extranodal extension. Size of metastasis greater than 6.0 mm presents higher risk of additional lymph node metastasis.

Insiders´ views as a predictor of stock performance : can insider trading be used to predict stock performance on the United States stock market?

This thesis studies the possibility of using information on insiders’ transactions to forecast future stock returns after the implementation of Sarbanes Oxley Act in July 2003. Insider transactions between July 2003 and August 2009 are analysed with regression tests to identify the relationships between insiders’ transactions and future stock returns. This analysis is complemented with rudimentary bootstrapping procedures to verify the robustness of the findings. The underlying assumption of the thesis is that insiders constantly receive pieces of information that indicate future performance of the company. They may not be allowed to trade on large and tangible pieces of information but they can trade on accumulation of smaller, intangible pieces of information. Based on the analysis in the thesis insiders’ profits were found not to differ from the returns from broad stock index. However, their individual transactions were found to be linked to future stock returns. The initial model was found to be unstable but some of the predictive power could be sacrificed to achieve greater stability. Even after sacrificing some predictive power the relationship was significant enough to allow external investors to achieve abnormal profits after transaction costs and taxes. The thesis does not go into great detail about timing of transactions. Delay in publishing insiders’ transactions is not taken into account in the calculations and the closed windows are not studied in detail. The potential effects of these phenomena are looked into and they do not cause great changes in the findings. Additionally the remuneration policy of an insider or a company is not taken into account even though it most likely affects the trading patterns of insiders. Even with the limitations the findings offer promising opportunities for investors to improve their investment processes by incorporating additional information from insiders’ transaction into their decisions. The findings also raise questions on how insider trading should be regulated. Insiders achieve greater returns than other investors based on superior information. On the other hand, more efficient information transfer could warrant more lenient regulation. The fact that insiders’ returns are dominated by the large investment stake they maintain all the time in their own companies also speaks for more leniency. As Sarbanes Oxley Act considerably modified the insider trading landscape, this analysis provides information that has not been available before. The thesis also constitutes a thorough analysis of insider trading phenomenon which has previously been somewhat separated into several studies.

Using the best linear predictor (BLP) in the selection between and among half-sib progenies of the CMS-39 maize population

Data of corn ear production (kg/ha) of 196 half-sib progenies (HSP) of the maize population CMS-39 obtained from experiments carried out in four environments were used to adapt and assess the BLP method (best linear predictor) in comparison with to the selection among and within half-sib progenies (SAWHSP). The 196 HSP of the CMS-39 population developed by the National Center for Maize and Sorghum Research (CNPMS-EMBRAPA) were related through their pedigree with the recombined progenies of the previous selection cycle. The two methodologies used for the selection of the twenty best half-sib progenies, BLP and SAWHSP, led to similar expected genetic gains. There was a tendency in the BLP methodology to select a greater number of related progenies because of the previous generation (pedigree) than the other method. This implies that greater care with the effective size of the population must be taken with this method. The SAWHSP methodology was efficient in isolating the additive genetic variance component from the phenotypic component. The pedigree system, although unnecessary for the routine use of the SAWHSP methodology, allowed the prediction of an increase in the inbreeding of the population in the long term SAWHSP selection when recombination is simultaneous to creation of new progenies.

c-Myc protein expression is not an independent prognostic predictor in cervical squamous cell carcinoma

The c-myc protein is known to regulate the cell cycle, and its down-regulation can lead to cell death by apoptosis. The role of c-myc protein as an independent prognostic determinant in cervical cancer is controversial. In the present study, a cohort of 220 Brazilian women (mean age 53.4 years) with FIGO stage I, II and III (21, 28 and 51%, respectively) cervical squamous cell carcinomas was analyzed for c-myc protein expression using immunohistochemistry. The disease-free survival and relapse-rate were analyzed using univariate (Kaplan-Meier) survival analysis for 116 women who completed the standard FIGO treatment and were followed up for 5 years. Positive c-myc staining was detected in 40% of carcinomas, 29% being grade 1, 9% grade 2, and 2% grade 3. The distribution of positive c-myc according to FIGO stage was 19% (17 women) in stage I, 33% (29) in stage II, and 48% (43) in stage III of disease. During the 60-month follow-up, disease-free survival in univariate (Kaplan-Meier) survival analysis (116 women) was lower for women with c-myc-positive tumors, i.e., 60.5, 47.5 and 36.6% at 12, 36, and 60 months, respectively (not significant). The present data suggest that immunohistochemical demonstration of c-myc does not possess any prognostic value independent of FIGO stage, and as such is unlikely to be a useful prognostic marker in cervical squamous cell carcinoma.

Gross proteinuria is a strong risk predictor for cardiovascular mortality in Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients

Increased proteinuria is recognized as a risk predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in diabetic patients; however, no study has evaluated these relationships in Brazilian patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of gross proteinuria for all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and for cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort study of 471 type 2 diabetic individuals followed for up to 7 years. Several clinical, laboratory and electrocardiographic variables were obtained at baseline. The relative risks for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and for cardiovascular and cardiac events associated with the presence of overt proteinuria (>0.5 g/24 h) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and by multivariate Cox regression model. During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 121 patients (25.7%) died, 44 from cardiovascular and 30 from cardiac causes, and 106 fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Gross proteinuria was an independent risk predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and of cardiovascular morbidity with adjusted relative risks ranging from 1.96 to 4.38 for the different endpoints. This increased risk remained significant after exclusion of patients with prior cardiovascular disease at baseline from the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, gross proteinuria was a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and also of cardiovascular morbidity in a Brazilian cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. Intervention studies are necessary to determine whether the reduction of proteinuria can decrease morbidity and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.

Systematic head and neck physical examination as a predictor of obstructive sleep apnea in class III obese patients

Our aim was to determine if anatomical abnormalities of the upper airway (UA) and facial skeleton of class III severely obese patients are related to the presence and severity of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). Forty-five patients (69% females, mean age 46.5 ± 10.8 years) with a body mass index (BMI) over 40 kg/m² underwent UA and facial skeletal examinations as well as polysomnography. Mean BMI was 49 ± 7 kg/m² and mean neck circumference was 43.4 ± 5.1 cm. Polysomnographic findings showed that 22% had a normal apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and 78% had an AHI over 5. The presence of OSAS was associated with younger age (P = 0.02), larger neck circumference (P = 0.004), presence of a voluminous lateral wall (P = 0.0002), posteriorized soft palate (P = 0.0053), thick soft palate (P = 0.0014), long uvula (P = 0.04), thick uvula (P = 0.0052), and inferior turbinate hypertrophy (P = 0.04). A larger neck circumference (P = 0.02), presence of a voluminous lateral wall (P = 0.04), posteriorized soft palate (P = 0.03), and thick soft palate (P = 0.04) were all associated with OSAS severity. The prevalence of OSAS in this group was high. A larger neck circumference and soft tissue abnormalities of the UA were markers for both the presence and severity of OSAS. Conversely, no abnormalities in the facial skeleton were associated with OSAS in patients with morbid obesity.

Glomerular damage as a predictor of renal allograft loss

Interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IF/TA) are the most common cause of renal graft failure. Chronic transplant glomerulopathy (CTG) is present in approximately 1.5-3.0% of all renal grafts. We retrospectively studied the contribution of CTG and recurrent post-transplant glomerulopathies (RGN) to graft loss. We analyzed 123 patients with chronic renal allograft dysfunction and divided them into three groups: CTG (N = 37), RGN (N = 21), and IF/TA (N = 65). Demographic data were analyzed and the variables related to graft function identified by statistical methods. CTG had a significantly lower allograft survival than IF/TA. In a multivariate analysis, protective factors for allograft outcomes were: use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.12, P = 0.001), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF; HR = 0.17, P = 0.026), hepatitis C virus (HR = 7.29, P = 0.003), delayed graft function (HR = 5.32, P = 0.016), serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dL at the 1st year post-transplant (HR = 0.20, P = 0.011), and proteinuria ≥0.5 g/24 h at the 1st year post-transplant (HR = 0.14, P = 0.004). The presence of glomerular damage is a risk factor for allograft loss (HR = 4.55, P = 0.015). The presence of some degree of chronic glomerular damage in addition to the diagnosis of IF/TA was the most important risk factor associated with allograft loss since it could indicate chronic active antibody-mediated rejection. ACEI and MMF were associated with better outcomes, indicating that they might improve graft survival.

Plasma von Willebrand factor as a predictor of survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension associated with congenital heart disease

Biomarkers have been identified for pulmonary arterial hypertension, but are less well defined for specific etiologies such as congenital heart disease-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension (CHDPAH). We measured plasma levels of eight microvascular dysfunction markers in CHDPAH, and tested for associations with survival. A cohort of 46 inoperable CHDPAH patients (age 15.0 to 60.2 years, median 33.5 years, female:male 29:17) was prospectively followed for 0.7 to 4.0 years (median 3.6 years). Plasma levels of von Willebrand factor antigen (VWF:Ag), tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) and its inhibitor (PAI-1), P-selectin, reactive C-protein, tumor necrosis factor alpha, and interleukin-6 and -10 were measured at baseline, and at 30, 90, and 180 days in all subjects. Levels of six of the eight proteins were significantly increased in patients versus controls (13 to 106% increase, P < 0.003). Interleukin-10 level was 2.06 times normal (P = 0.0003; Th2 cytokine response). Increased levels of four proteins (t-PA, PAI-1, P-selectin, and interleukin-6) correlated with disease severity indices (P < 0.05). Seven patients died during follow-up. An average VWF:Ag (mean of four determinations) above the level corresponding to the 95th percentile of controls (139 U/dL) was independently associated with a high risk of death (hazard ratio = 6.56, 95%CI = 1.46 to 29.4, P = 0.014). Thus, in CHDPAH, microvascular dysfunction appears to involve Th2 inflammatory response. Of the biomarkers studied, plasma vWF:Ag was independently associated with survival.

Percent body fat is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk factors than body mass index

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the predictive values of percent body fat (PBF) and body mass index (BMI) for cardiovascular risk factors, especially when PBF and BMI are conflicting. BMI was calculated by the standard formula and PBF was determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis. A total of 3859 ambulatory adult Han Chinese subjects (2173 males and 1686 females, age range: 18-85 years) without a history of cardiovascular diseases were recruited from February to September 2009. Based on BMI and PBF, they were classified into group 1 (normal BMI and PBF, N = 1961), group 2 (normal BMI, but abnormal PBF, N = 381), group 3 (abnormal BMI, but normal PBF, N = 681), and group 4 (abnormal BMI and PBF, N = 836). When age, gender, lifestyle, and family history of obesity were adjusted, PBF, but not BMI, was correlated with blood glucose and lipid levels. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for cardiovascular risk factors in groups 2 and 4 were 1.88 (1.45-2.45) and 2.06 (1.26-3.35) times those in group 1, respectively, but remained unchanged in group 3 (OR = 1.32, 95%CI = 0.92-1.89). Logistic regression models also demonstrated that PBF, rather than BMI, was independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors. In conclusion, PBF, and not BMI, is independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors, indicating that PBF is a better predictor.

A biochemical predictor of performance during mesophilic anaerobic fermentation of starch wastewater

The aim of this study was to determine the potential of biochemical parameters, such as enzyme activity and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) levels, as monitors of process performance in the Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) reactor utilizing a starch wastewater. The acid and alkaline phosphatase activity and the ATP content of the UASB sludge were measured in response to changes in flow rate and nutrient loading. Conventional parameters of process performance, such as gas production, acetic acid production, COD, phosphorus, nitrogen and suspended solids loadings and % COD removal were also monitored. The response of both biochemical and conventional parameters to changing process conditions was then compared. Alkaline phosphatase activity exhibited the highest activity over the entire study perioda A high suspended solids loading was observed to upset the system in terms of gas production, acetic acid production and % COD removala The initial rate of increase in alkaline phosphatase activity following an increase in loading was four times as great during process upset than under conditions of good performance. The change in enzyme actiVity was also more sensitive to process upset than changes in acetic acid production. The change in ATP content of the sludge with time suggested that enzyme actiVity was changing independently of the actual viable biomass present. The bacterial composition of the anaerobic sludge granules was similar to that of other sludge bed systems, at the light and scanning electron microscope level. Isolated serum bottle cultures produced several acids involved in anaerobic carbohydrate metabolism. The overall performance of the UASB system indicated that higher loadings of soluble nutrients could have been tolerated by the system.

The effect of synchronized group activities on pain threshold as a predictor of cooperation

Recent research suggests that participating in vigorous synchronized physical activity may result in elevated levels of endorphins, which may in turn affect social bonding (Cohen et. al., 2009). The present research aimed to examine whether or not the change in pain tolerance would be able to predict participants’ willingness to cooperate after statistically controlling for the groups’ condition. Participants were asked to run on a treadmill for 30 minutes under one of two conditions (control vs. synchronized). Prior to and after the run participants underwent a pain tolerance test. Once completed, a second activity was introduced to the participants; a cooperative game. A public goods game was used to measure an individual’s willingness to cooperate. The results showed the synchronized condition was able to predict that participants cooperated more during the public goods game (p = .009), however the change in pain threshold was unable to significantly predict cooperation (p = .32).

Quadratic Predictor based Differential Encoding and Decoding of Speech Signals

Modeling nonlinear systems using Volterra series is a century old method but practical realizations were hampered by inadequate hardware to handle the increased computational complexity stemming from its use. But interest is renewed recently, in designing and implementing filters which can model much of the polynomial nonlinearities inherent in practical systems. The key advantage in resorting to Volterra power series for this purpose is that nonlinear filters so designed can be made to work in parallel with the existing LTI systems, yielding improved performance. This paper describes the inclusion of a quadratic predictor (with nonlinearity order 2) with a linear predictor in an analog source coding system. Analog coding schemes generally ignore the source generation mechanisms but focuses on high fidelity reconstruction at the receiver. The widely used method of differential pnlse code modulation (DPCM) for speech transmission uses a linear predictor to estimate the next possible value of the input speech signal. But this linear system do not account for the inherent nonlinearities in speech signals arising out of multiple reflections in the vocal tract. So a quadratic predictor is designed and implemented in parallel with the linear predictor to yield improved mean square error performance. The augmented speech coder is tested on speech signals transmitted over an additive white gaussian noise (AWGN) channel.