965 resultados para prediction error


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Using a convenient and fast HPLC procedure we determined serum concentrations of the fungistatic agent 5-fluorocytosine (5-FC) in 375 samples from 60 patients treated with this drug. The mean trough concentration (n = 127) was 64.3 mg/l (range: 11.8-208.0 mg/l), the mean peak concentration (n = 122) was 99.9 mg/l (range: 25.6-263.8 mg/l), the mean nonpeak/nontrough concentration (n = 126) was 80.1 mg/l (range: 10.5-268.0 mg/l). Totally 134 (35.7%) samples were outside the therapeutic range (25-100 mg/l), 108 (28.8%) being too high, 26 (6.9%) being too low. Forty-four (73%) patients showed 5-FC serum concentrations outside the therapeutic range at least once during the treatment course. In a prospective study we performed 65 dosage predictions on 30 patients by use of a 3-point method previously developed for aminoglycoside dosage adaptation. The mean absolute prediction error of the dosage adaptation was +0.7 mg/l (range: -26.0 to +28.0 mg/l). The root mean square prediction error was 10.7 mg/l. The mean predicted concentration (65.3 mg/l) agreed very well with the mean measured concentration (64.6 mg/l). The frequency distribution of 5-FC serum concentrations indicates that 5-FC monitoring is important. The applied pharmacokinetic method allows individual adaptations of 5-FC dosage with a clinically acceptable prediction error.

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The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

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Individual risk preferences have a large influence on decisions, such as financial investments, career and health choices, or gambling. Decision making under risk has been studied both behaviorally and on a neural level. It remains unclear, however, how risk attitudes are encoded and integrated with choice. Here, we investigate how risk preferences are reflected in neural regions known to process risk. We collected functional magnetic resonance images of 56 human subjects during a gambling task (Preuschoff et al., 2006). Subjects were grouped into risk averters and risk seekers according to the risk preferences they revealed in a separate lottery task. We found that during the anticipation of high-risk gambles, risk averters show stronger responses in ventral striatum and anterior insula compared to risk seekers. In addition, risk prediction error signals in anterior insula, inferior frontal gyrus, and anterior cingulate indicate that risk averters do not dissociate properly between gambles that are more or less risky than expected. We suggest this may result in a general overestimation of prospective risk and lead to risk avoidance behavior. This is the first study to show that behavioral risk preferences are reflected in the passive evaluation of risky situations. The results have implications on public policies in the financial and health domain.

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Los objetivos de esta tesis fueron 1) obtener y validar ecuaciones de predicción para determinar in vivo la composición corporal y de la canal de conejos en crecimiento de 25 a 77 días de vida utilizando la técnica de la Impedancia Bioeléctrica (BIA), y 2) evaluar su aplicación para determinar diferencias en la composición corporal y de la canal, así como la retención de nutrientes de animales alimentados con diferentes fuentes y niveles de grasa. El primer estudio se realizó para determinar y después validar, usando datos independientes, las ecuaciones de predicción obtenidas para determinar in vivo la composición corporal de los conejos en crecimiento. Se utilizaron 150 conejos a 5 edades distintas (25, 35, 49, 63 y 77 días de vida), con un rango de pesos entre 231 y 3138 g. Para determinar los valores de resistencia (Rs,) and reactancia (Xc,) se usó un terminal (Model BIA-101, RJL Systems, Detroit, MI USA) con cuatro electrodos. Igualmente se registró la distancia entre electrodos internos (D), la longitud corporal (L) y el peso vivo (PV) de cada animal. En cada edad, los animales fueron molidos y congelados (-20 ºC) para su posterior análisis químico (MS, grasa, proteína, cenizas y EB). El contenido en grasa y energía de los animales se incrementó, mientras que los contenidos en proteína, cenizas y agua de los animales disminuyeron con la edad. Los valores medios de Rs, Xc, impedancia (Z), L y D fueron 83.5 ± 23.1 , 18.2 ± 3.8 , 85.6 ± 22.9 , 30.6 ± 6.9 cm y 10.8 ± 3.1 cm. Se realizó un análisis de regresión lineal múltiple para determinar las ecuaciones de predicción, utilizando los valores de PV, L and Z como variables independientes. Las ecuaciones obtenidas para estimar los contenidos en agua (g), PB (g), grasa (g), cenizas (g) and EB (MJ) tuvieron un coeficiente de determinación de (R2) de 0.99, 0.99, 0.97, 0.98 y 0.99, y los errores medios de predicción relativos (EMPR) fueron: 2.79, 6.15, 24.3, 15.2 y 10.6%, respectivamente. Cuando el contenido en agua se expresó como porcentaje, los valores de R2 y EMPR fueron 0.85 and 2.30%, respectivamente. Al predecir los contenidos en proteína (%MS), grasa (%MS), cenizas (%MS) y energía (kJ/100 g MS), se obtuvieron valores de 0.79, 0.83, 0.71 y 0.86 para R2, y 5.04, 18.9, 12.0 y 3.19% para EMPR. La reactancia estuvo negativamente correlacionada con el contenido en agua, cenizas y PB (r = -0.32, P < 0.0001; r = -0.20, P < 0.05; r = -0.26, P < 0.01) y positivamente correlacionada con la grasa y la energía (r = 0.23 y r = 0.24; P < 0.01). Sin embargo, Rs estuvo positivamente correlacionada con el agua, las cenizas y la PB (r = 0.31, P < 0.001; r = 0.28, P < 0.001; r = 0.37, P < 0.0001) y negativamente con la grasa y la energía (r = -0.36 y r = -0.35; P < 0.0001). Igualmente la edad estuvo negativamente correlacionada con el contenido en agua, cenizas y proteína (r = -0.79; r = -0.68 y r = -0.80; P < 0.0001) y positivamente con la grasa y la energía (r = 0.78 y r = 0.81; P < 0.0001). Se puede concluir que el método BIA es una técnica buena y no invasiva para estimar in vivo la composición corporal de conejos en crecimiento de 25 a 77 días de vida. El objetivo del segundo estudio fue determinar y validar con datos independientes las ecuaciones de predicción obtenidas para estimar in vivo la composición de la canal eviscerada mediante el uso de BIA en un grupo de conejos de 25 a 77 días, así como testar su aplicación para predecir la retención de nutrientes y calcular las eficacias de retención de la energía y del nitrógeno. Se utilizaron 75 conejos agrupados en 5 edades (25, 35, 49, 63 y 77 días de vida) con unos pesos que variaron entre 196 y 3260 g. Para determinar los valores de resistencia (Rs, ) y reactancia (Xc, ) se usó un terminal (Model BIA-101, RJL Systems, Detroit, MI USA) con cuatro electrodos. Igualmente se registró la distancia entre electrodos internos (D), la longitud corporal (L) y el peso vivo (PV) del cada animal. En cada edad, los animales fueron aturdidos y desangrados. Su piel, vísceras y contenido digestivo fueron retirados, y la canal oreada fue pesada y molida para posteriores análisis (MS, grasa, PB, cenizas y EB). Los contenidos en energía y grasa aumentaron mientras que los de agua, cenizas y proteína disminuyeron con la edad. Los valores medios de Rs, Xc, impedancia (Z), L y D fueron 95.9±23.9 , 19.5±4.7 , 98.0±23.8 , 20.6±6.3 cm y 13.7±3.1 cm. Se realizó un análisis de regresión linear múltiple para determinar las ecuaciones de predicción, utilizando los valores de PV, L and Z como variables independientes. Los coeficientes de determinación (R2) de las ecuaciones obtenidas para estimar los contenidos en agua (g), PB (g), grasa (g), cenizas (g) and EB (MJ) fueron: 0.99, 0.99, 0.95, 0.96 y 0.98, mientras que los errores medios de predicción relativos (EMPR) fueron: 4.20, 5.48, 21.9, 9.10 y 6.77%, respectivamente. Cuando el contenido en agua se expresó como porcentaje, los valores de R2 y EMPR fueron 0.79 y 1.62%, respectivamente. Cuando se realizó la predicción de los contenidos en proteína (%MS), grasa (%MS), cenizas (%MS) y energía (kJ/100 g MS), los valores de R2 fueron 0.68, 0.76, 0.66 and 0.82, y los de RMPE: 3.22, 10.5, 5.82 and 2.54%, respectivamente. La reactancia estuvo directamente correlacionada con el contenido en grasa (r = 0.24, P < 0.05), mientras que la resistencia guardó una correlación positiva con los contenidos en agua, cenizas y proteína (r = 0.55, P < 0.001; r = 0.54, P < 0.001; r = 0.40, P < 0.005) y negativa con la grasa y la energía (r = -0.44 y r = -0.55; P < 0.001). Igualmente la edad estuvo negativamente correlacionada con los contenidos en agua, cenizas y PB (r = -0.94; r = -0.85 y r = -0.75; P < 0.0001) y positivamente con la grasa y la energía (r = 0.89 y r = 0.90; P < 0.0001). Se estudió la eficacia global de retención de la energía (ERE) y del nitrógeno (ERN) durante todo el periodo de cebo (35-63 d), Los valores de ERE fueron 20.4±7.29%, 21.0±4.18% and 20.8±2.79% en los periodos 35 a 49, 49 a 63 y 35 a 63 d, respectivamente. ERN fue 46.9±11.7%, 34.5±7.32% y 39.1±3.23% para los mismos periodos. La energía fue retenida en los tejidos para crecimiento con una eficiencia del 52.5% y la eficiencia de retención de la energía como proteína y grasa fue de 33.3 y 69.9% respectivamente. La eficiencia de utilización del nitrógeno para crecimiento fue cercana al 77%. Este trabajo muestra como el método BIA es técnica buena y no invasiva para determinar in vivo la composición de la canal y la retención de nutrientes en conejos en crecimiento de 25 a 77 días de vida. En el tercer estudio, se llevaron a cabo dos experimentos con el fin de investigar los efectos del nivel de inclusión y de la fuente de grasa, sobre los rendimientos productivos, la mortalidad, la retención de nutrientes y la composición corporal total y de la canal eviscerada de conejos en crecimiento de 34 a 63 d de vida. En el Exp. 1 se formularon 3 dietas con un diseño experimental factorial 3 x 2 con el tipo de grasa utilizada: Aceite de Soja (SBO), Lecitinas de Soja (SLO) y Manteca (L) y el nivel de inclusión (1.5 y 4%) como factores principales. El Exp. 2 también fue diseñado con una estructura factorial 3 x 2, pero usando SBO, Aceite de Pescado (FO) y Aceite de Palmiste como fuentes de grasa, incluidas a los mismos niveles que en el Exp. 1. En ambos experimentos 180 animales fueron alojados en jaulas individuales (n=30) y 600 en jaulas colectivas en grupos de 5 animales (n=20). Los animales alimentados con un 4% de grasa añadida tuvieron unos consumos diarios y unos índices de conversión más bajos que aquellos alimentados con las dietas con un 1.5% de grasa. En los animales alojados en colectivo del Exp. 1, el consumo fue un 4.8% más alto en los que consumieron las dietas que contenían manteca que en los animales alimentados con las dietas SBO (P = 0.036). La inclusión de manteca tendió a reducir la mortalidad (P = 0.067) en torno al 60% y al 25% con respecto a las dietas con SBO y SLO, respectivamente. La mortalidad aumentó con el nivel máximo de inclusión de SLO (14% vs. 1%, P < 0.01), sin observarse un efecto negativo sobre la mortalidad con el nivel más alto de inclusión de las demás fuentes de grasa utilizadas. En los animales alojados colectivo del Exp. 2 se encontró una disminución del consumo (11%), peso vivo a 63 d (4.8%) y de la ganancia diaria de peso (7.8%) con la inclusión de aceite de pescado con respecto a otras dietas (P < 0.01). Los dos últimos parámetros se vieron especialmente más reducidos cuando en las dietas se incluyó el nivel más alto de FO (5.6 y 9.5%, respectivamente, (P < 0.01)). Los animales alojados individualmente mostraron unos resultados productivos muy similares. La inclusión de aceite pescado tendió (P = 0.078) a aumentar la mortalidad (13.2%) con respecto al aceite de palmiste (6.45%), siendo intermedia para las dietas que contenían SBO (8.10%). La fuente o el nivel de grasa no afectaron la composición corporal total o de la canal eviscerada de los animales. Un incremento en el nivel de grasa dio lugar a una disminución de la ingesta de nitrógeno digestible (DNi) (1.83 vs. 1.92 g/d; P = 0.068 en Exp. 1 y 1.79 vs. 1.95 g/d; P = 0.014 en Exp. 2). Debido a que el nitrógeno retenido (NR) en la canal fue similar para ambos niveles (0.68 g/d (Exp. 1) y 0.71 g/d (Exp. 2)), la eficacia total de retención del nitrógeno (ERN) aumentó con el nivel máximo de inclusión de grasa, pero de forma significativa únicamente en el Exp. 1 (34.9 vs. 37.8%; P < 0.0001), mientras que en el Exp. 2 se encontró una tendencia (36.2 vs. 38.0% en Exp. 2; P < 0.064). Como consecuencia, la excreción de nitrógeno en heces fue menor en los animales alimentados con el nivel más alto de grasa (0.782 vs. 0.868 g/d; P = 0.0001 en Exp. 1, y 0.745 vs. 0.865 g/d; P < 0.0001 en Exp.2) al igual que el nitrógeno excretado en orina (0.702 vs. 0.822 g/d; P < 0.0001 en Exp. 1 y 0.694 vs. 0.7999 g/d; P = 0.014 en Exp.2). Aunque no hubo diferencias en la eficacia total de retención de la energía (ERE), la energía excretada en heces disminuyó al aumentar el nivel de inclusión de grasa (142 vs. 156 Kcal/d; P = 0.0004 en Exp. 1 y 144 vs. 154 g/d; P = 0.050 en Exp. 2). Sin embargo, la energía excretada como orina y en forma de calor fue mayor en el los animales del Exp. 1 alimentados con el nivel más alto de grasa (216 vs. 204 Kcal/d; P < 0.017). Se puede concluir que la manteca y el aceite de palmiste pueden ser considerados como fuentes alternativas al aceite de soja debido a la reducción de la mortalidad, sin efectos negativos sobre los rendimientos productivos o la retención de nutrientes. La inclusión de aceite de pescado empeoró los rendimientos productivos y la mortalidad durante el periodo de crecimiento. Un aumento en el nivel de grasa mejoró el índice de conversión y la eficacia total de retención de nitrógeno. ABSTRACT The aim of this Thesis is: 1) to obtain and validate prediction equations to determine in vivo whole body and carcass composition using the Bioelectrical Impedance (BIA) method in growing rabbits from 25 to 77 days of age, and 2) to study its application to determine differences on whole body and carcass chemical composition, and nutrient retention of animals fed different fat levels and sources. The first study was conducted to determine and later validate, by using independent data, the prediction equations obtained to assess in vivo the whole body composition of growing rabbits. One hundred and fifty rabbits grouped at 5 different ages (25, 35, 49, 63 and 77 days) and weighing from 231 to 3138 g were used. A four terminal body composition analyser was used to obtain resistance (Rs, ) and reactance (Xc, ) values (Model BIA-101, RJL Systems, Detroit, MI USA). The distance between internal electrodes (D, cm), body length (L, cm) and live BW of each animal were also registered. At each selected age, animals were slaughtered, ground and frozen (-20 ºC) for later chemical analyses (DM, fat, CP, ash and GE). Fat and energy body content increased with the age, while protein, ash, and water decreased. Mean values of Rs, Xc, impedance (Z), L and D were 83.5 ± 23.1 , 18.2 ± 3.8 , 85.6 ± 22.9 , 30.6 ± 6.9 cm and 10.8 ± 3.1 cm. A multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the prediction equations, using BW, L and Z data as independent variables. Equations obtained to estimate water (g), CP (g), fat (g), ash (g) and GE (MJ) content had, respectively, coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.99, 0.99, 0.97, 0.98 and 0.99, and the relative mean prediction error (RMPE) was: 2.79, 6.15, 24.3, 15.2 and 10.6%, respectively. When water was expressed as percentage, the R2 and RMPE were 0.85 and 2.30%, respectively. When prediction of the content of protein (%DM), fat (%DM), ash (%DM) and energy (kJ/100 g DM) was done, values of 0.79, 0.83, 0.71 and 0.86 for R2, and 5.04, 18.9, 12.0 and 3.19% for RMPE, respectively, were obtained. Reactance was negatively correlated with water, ash and CP content (r = -0.32, P < 0.0001; r = -0.20, P < 0.05; r = -0.26, P < 0.01) and positively correlated with fat and GE (r = 0.23 and r = 0.24; P < 0.01). Otherwise, resistance was positively correlated with water, ash and CP (r = 0.31, P < 0.001; r = 0.28, P < 0.001; r = 0.37, P < 0.0001) and negatively correlated with fat and energy (r = -0.36 and r = -0.35; P < 0.0001). Moreover, age was negatively correlated with water, ash and CP content (r = -0.79; r = -0.68 and r = -0.80; P < 0.0001) and positively correlated with fat and energy (r = 0.78 and r = 0.81; P < 0.0001). It could be concluded that BIA is a non-invasive good method to estimate in vivo whole body composition of growing rabbits from 25 to 77 days of age. The aim of the second study was to determine and validate with independent data, the prediction equations obtained to estimate in vivo carcass composition of growing rabbits by using the results of carcass chemical composition and BIA values in a group of rabbits from 25 to 77 days. Also its potential application to predict nutrient retention and overall energy and nitrogen retention efficiencies was analysed. Seventy five rabbits grouped at 5 different ages (25, 35, 49, 63 and 77 days) with weights ranging from 196 to 3260 g were used. A four terminal body composition analyser (Model BIA-101, RJL Systems, Detroit, MI USA) was used to obtain resistance (Rs, ) and reactance (Xc, ) values. The distance between internal electrodes (D, cm), body length (L, cm) and live weight (BW, g) were also registered. At each selected age, all the animals were stunned and bled. The skin, organs and digestive content were removed, and the chilled carcass were weighed and processed for chemical analyses (DM, fat, CP, ash and GE). Energy and fat increased with the age, while CP, ash, and water decreased. Mean values of Rs, Xc, impedance (Z), L and D were 95.9±23.9 , 19.5±4.7 , 98.0±23.8 , 20.6±6.3 cm y 13.7±3.1 cm. A multiple linear regression analysis was done to determine the equations, using BW, L and Z data as parameters. Coefficient of determination (R2) of the equations obtained to estimate water (g), CP (g), fat (g), ash (g) and GE (MJ) content were: 0.99, 0.99, 0.95, 0.96 and 0.98, and relative mean prediction error (RMPE) were: 4.20, 5.48, 21.9, 9.10 and 6.77%, respectively. When water content was expressed as percentage, the R2 and RMPE were 0.79 and 1.62%, respectively. When prediction of protein (%DM), fat (%DM), ash (%DM) and energy (kJ/100 g DM) content was done, R2 values were 0.68, 0.76, 0.66 and 0.82, and RMPE: 3.22, 10.5, 5.82 and 2.54%, respectively. Reactance was positively correlated with fat content (r = 0.24, P < 0.05) while resistance was positively correlated with water, ash and protein carcass content (r = 0.55, P < 0.001; r = 0.54, P < 0.001; r = 0.40, P < 0.005) and negatively correlated with fat and energy (r = -0.44 and r = -0.55; P < 0.001). Moreover, age was negatively correlated with water, ash and CP content (r = -0.97, r = -0.95 and r = -0.89, P < 0.0001) and positively correlated with fat and GE (r = 0.95 and r = 0.97; P < 0.0001). In the whole growing period (35-63 d), overall energy retention efficiency (ERE) and nitrogen retention efficiency (NRE) were studied. The ERE values were 20.4±7.29%, 21.0±4.18% and 20.8±2.79%, from 35 to 49, 49 to 63 and from 35 to 63 d, respectively. NRE was 46.9±11.7%, 34.5±7.32% and 39.1±3.23% for the same periods. Energy was retained in body tissues for growth with an efficiency of approximately 52.5% and efficiency of the energy for protein and fat retention was 33.3 and 69.9%, respectively. Efficiency of utilization of nitrogen for growth was near to 77%. This work shows that BIA it’s a non-invasive and good method to estimate in vivo carcass composition and nutrient retention of growing rabbits from 25 to 77 days of age. In the third study, two experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of the fat addition and source, on performance, mortality, nutrient retention, and the whole body and carcass chemical composition of growing rabbits from 34 to 63 d. In Exp. 1 three diets were arranged in a 3 x 2 factorial structure with the source of fat: Soybean oil (SBO), Soya Lecithin Oil (SLO) and Lard (L) and the dietary fat inclusion level (1.5 and 4%) as the main factors. Exp. 2 had also arranged as a 3 x 2 factorial design, but using SBO, Fish Oil (FO) and Palmkernel Oil (PKO) as fat sources, and included at the same levels than in Exp. 1. In both experiments 180 animals were allocated in individual cages (n=30) and 600 in collectives cages, in groups of 5 animals (n=20). Animals fed with 4% dietary fat level showed lower DFI and FCR than those fed diets with 1.5%. In collective housing of Exp. 1, DFI was a 4.8% higher in animals fed with diets containing lard than SBO (P = 0.036), being intermediate for diet with SLO. Inclusion of lard also tended to reduce mortality (P = 0.067) around 60% and 25% with respect SBO and SLO diets, respectively. Mortality increased with the greatest level of soya lecithin (14% vs. 1%, P < 0.01). In Exp. 2 a decrease of DFI (11%), BW at 63 d (4.8%) and DWG (7.8%) were observed with the inclusion of fish oil with respect the other two diets (P < 0.01). These last two traits impaired with the highest level of fish oil (5.6 and 9.5%, respectively, (P < 0.01)). Animals housed individually showed similar performance results. The inclusion of fish oil also tended to increase (P = 0.078) mortality (13.2%) with respect palmkernel oil (6.45%), being mortality of SBO intermediate (8.10%). Fat source and level did not affect the whole body or carcass chemical composition. An increase of the fat sources addition led to a decrease of the digestible nitrogen intake (DNi) (1.83 vs. 1.92 g/d; P = 0.068 in Exp. 1 and 1.79 vs. 1.95 g/d; P = 0.014 in Exp. 2). As the nitrogen retained (NR) in the carcass was similar for both fat levels (0.68 g/d (Exp. 1) and 0.71 g/d (Exp. 2)), the overall efficiency of N retention (NRE) increased with the highest level of fat, but only reached significant level in Exp. 1 (34.9 vs. 37.8%; P < 0.0001), while in Exp. 2 a tendency was found (36.2 vs. 38.0% in Exp. 2; P < 0.064). Consequently, nitrogen excretion in faeces was lower in animals fed with the highest level of fat (0.782 vs. 0.868 g/d; P = 0.0001 in Exp. 1, and 0.745 vs. 0.865 g/d; P < 0.0001 in Exp.2). The same effect was observed with the nitrogen excreted as urine (0.702 vs. 0.822 g/d; P < 0.0001 in Exp. 1 and 0.694 vs. 0.7999 g/d; P = 0.014 in Exp.2). Although there were not differences in ERE, the energy excreted in faeces decreased as fat level increased (142 vs. 156 Kcal/d; P = 0.0004 in Exp. 1 and 144 vs. 154 g/d; P = 0.050 in Exp. 2). In Exp. 1 the energy excreted as urine and heat production was significantly higher when animals were fed with the highest level of dietary fat (216 vs. 204 Kcal/d; P < 0.017). It can be concluded that lard and palmkernel oil can be considered as alternative sources to soybean oil due to the reduction of the mortality, without negative effects on performances or nutrient retention. Inclusion of fish impaired animals´ productivity and mortality. An increase of the dietary fat level improved FCR and overall protein efficiency retention.

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Este proyecto se incluye en una línea de trabajo que tiene como objetivo final la optimización de la energía consumida por un dispositivo portátil multimedia mediante la aplicación de técnicas de control realimentado, a partir de una modificación dinámica de la frecuencia de trabajo del procesador y de su tensión de alimentación. La modificación de frecuencia y tensión se realiza a partir de la información de realimentación acerca de la potencia consumida por el dispositivo, lo que supone un problema ya que no suele ser posible la monitorización del consumo de potencia en dispositivos de estas características. Este es el motivo por el que se recurre a la estimación del consumo de potencia, utilizando para ello un modelo de predicción. A partir del número de veces que se producen ciertos eventos en el procesador del dispositivo, el modelo de predicción es capaz de obtener una estimación de la potencia consumida por dicho dispositivo. El trabajo llevado a cabo en este proyecto se centra en la implementación de un modelo de estimación de potencia en el kernel de Linux. La razón por la que la estimación se implementa en el sistema operativo es, en primer lugar para lograr un acceso directo a los contadores del procesador. En segundo lugar, para facilitar la modificación de frecuencia y tensión, una vez obtenida la estimación de potencia, ya que esta también se realiza desde el sistema operativo. Otro motivo para implementar la estimación en el sistema operativo, es que la estimación debe ser independiente de las aplicaciones de usuario. Además, el proceso de estimación se realiza de forma periódica, lo que sería difícil de lograr si no se trabajase desde el sistema operativo. Es imprescindible que la estimación se haga de forma periódica ya que al ser dinámica la modificación de frecuencia y tensión que se pretende implementar, se necesita conocer el consumo de potencia del dispositivo en todo momento. Cabe destacar también, que los algoritmos de control se tienen que diseñar sobre un patrón periódico de actuación. El modelo de estimación de potencia funciona de manera específica para el perfil de consumo generado por una única aplicación determinada, que en este caso es un decodificador de vídeo. Sin embargo, es necesario que funcione de la forma más precisa posible para cada una de las frecuencias de trabajo del procesador, y para el mayor número posible de secuencias de vídeo. Esto es debido a que las sucesivas estimaciones de potencia se pretenden utilizar para llevar a cabo la modificación dinámica de frecuencia, por lo que el modelo debe ser capaz de continuar realizando las estimaciones independientemente de la frecuencia con la que esté trabajando el dispositivo. Para valorar la precisión del modelo de estimación se toman medidas de la potencia consumida por el dispositivo a las distintas frecuencias de trabajo durante la ejecución del decodificador de vídeo. Estas medidas se comparan con las estimaciones de potencia obtenidas durante esas mismas ejecuciones, obteniendo de esta forma el error de predicción cometido por el modelo y realizando las modificaciones y ajustes oportunos en el mismo. ABSTRACT. This project is included in a work line which tries to optimize consumption of handheld multimedia devices by the application of feedback control techniques, from a dynamic modification of the processor work frequency and its voltage. The frequency and voltage modification is performed depending on the feedback information about the device power consumption. This is a problem because normally it is not possible to monitor the power consumption on this kind of devices. This is the reason why a power consumption estimation is used instead, which is obtained from a prediction model. Using the number of times some events occur on the device processor, the prediction model is able to obtain a power consumption estimation of this device. The work done in this project focuses on the implementation of a power estimation model in the Linux kernel. The main reason to implement the estimation in the operating system is to achieve a direct access to the processor counters. The second reason is to facilitate the frequency and voltage modification, because this modification is also done from the operating system. Another reason to implement the estimation in the operating system is because the estimation must be done apart of the user applications. Moreover, the estimation process is done periodically, what is difficult to obtain outside the operating system. It is necessary to make the estimation in a periodic way because the frequency and voltage modification is going to be dynamic, so it needs to know the device power consumption at every time. Also, it is important to say that the control algorithms have to be designed over a periodic pattern of action. The power estimation model works specifically for the consumption profile generated by a single application, which in this case is a video decoder. Nevertheless, it is necessary that the model works as accurate as possible for each frequency available on the processor, and for the greatest number of video sequences. This is because the power estimations are going to be used to modify dynamically the frequency, so the model must be able to work independently of the device frequency. To value the estimation model precision, some measurements of the device power consumption are taken at different frequencies during the video decoder execution. These measurements are compared with the power estimations obtained during that execution, getting the prediction error committed by the model, and if it is necessary, making modifications and settings on this model.

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Liquid-liquid extraction has long been known as a unit operation that plays an important role in industry. This process is well known for its complexity and sensitivity to operation conditions. This thesis presents an attempt to explore the dynamics and control of this process using a systematic approach and state of the art control system design techniques. The process was studied first experimentally under carefully selected. operation conditions, which resembles the ranges employed practically under stable and efficient conditions. Data were collected at steady state conditions using adequate sampling techniques for the dispersed and continuous phases as well as during the transients of the column with the aid of a computer-based online data logging system and online concentration analysis. A stagewise single stage backflow model was improved to mimic the dynamic operation of the column. The developed model accounts for the variation in hydrodynamics, mass transfer, and physical properties throughout the length of the column. End effects were treated by addition of stages at the column entrances. Two parameters were incorporated in the model namely; mass transfer weight factor to correct for the assumption of no mass transfer in the. settling zones at each stage and the backmixing coefficients to handle the axial dispersion phenomena encountered in the course of column operation. The parameters were estimated by minimizing the differences between the experimental and the model predicted concentration profiles at steady state conditions using non-linear optimisation technique. The estimated values were then correlated as functions of operating parameters and were incorporated in·the model equations. The model equations comprise a stiff differential~algebraic system. This system was solved using the GEAR ODE solver. The calculated concentration profiles were compared to those experimentally measured. A very good agreement of the two profiles was achieved within a percent relative error of ±2.S%. The developed rigorous dynamic model of the extraction column was used to derive linear time-invariant reduced-order models that relate the input variables (agitator speed, solvent feed flowrate and concentration, feed concentration and flowrate) to the output variables (raffinate concentration and extract concentration) using the asymptotic method of system identification. The reduced-order models were shown to be accurate in capturing the dynamic behaviour of the process with a maximum modelling prediction error of I %. The simplicity and accuracy of the derived reduced-order models allow for control system design and analysis of such complicated processes. The extraction column is a typical multivariable process with agitator speed and solvent feed flowrate considered as manipulative variables; raffinate concentration and extract concentration as controlled variables and the feeds concentration and feed flowrate as disturbance variables. The control system design of the extraction process was tackled as multi-loop decentralised SISO (Single Input Single Output) as well as centralised MIMO (Multi-Input Multi-Output) system using both conventional and model-based control techniques such as IMC (Internal Model Control) and MPC (Model Predictive Control). Control performance of each control scheme was. studied in terms of stability, speed of response, sensitivity to modelling errors (robustness), setpoint tracking capabilities and load rejection. For decentralised control, multiple loops were assigned to pair.each manipulated variable with each controlled variable according to the interaction analysis and other pairing criteria such as relative gain array (RGA), singular value analysis (SVD). Loops namely Rotor speed-Raffinate concentration and Solvent flowrate Extract concentration showed weak interaction. Multivariable MPC has shown more effective performance compared to other conventional techniques since it accounts for loops interaction, time delays, and input-output variables constraints.

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2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62H30, 62P99

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Big data comes in various ways, types, shapes, forms and sizes. Indeed, almost all areas of science, technology, medicine, public health, economics, business, linguistics and social science are bombarded by ever increasing flows of data begging to be analyzed efficiently and effectively. In this paper, we propose a rough idea of a possible taxonomy of big data, along with some of the most commonly used tools for handling each particular category of bigness. The dimensionality p of the input space and the sample size n are usually the main ingredients in the characterization of data bigness. The specific statistical machine learning technique used to handle a particular big data set will depend on which category it falls in within the bigness taxonomy. Large p small n data sets for instance require a different set of tools from the large n small p variety. Among other tools, we discuss Preprocessing, Standardization, Imputation, Projection, Regularization, Penalization, Compression, Reduction, Selection, Kernelization, Hybridization, Parallelization, Aggregation, Randomization, Replication, Sequentialization. Indeed, it is important to emphasize right away that the so-called no free lunch theorem applies here, in the sense that there is no universally superior method that outperforms all other methods on all categories of bigness. It is also important to stress the fact that simplicity in the sense of Ockham’s razor non-plurality principle of parsimony tends to reign supreme when it comes to massive data. We conclude with a comparison of the predictive performance of some of the most commonly used methods on a few data sets.

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In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency's safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

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One of the research programs carried out within the Czech-Ukrainian scientific co-operation is the monitoring of global solar and ultraviolet radiation at the Vernadsky Station (formerly the British Faraday Station), Antarctica. Radiation measurements have been made since 2002. Recently, a special attention is devoted to the measurements of the erythemally effective UVB radiation using a broadband Robertson Berger 501 UV-Biometer (Solar Light Co. Inc., USA). This paper brings some results from modelling the daily sums of erythemally effective UVB radiation intensity in relation to the total ozone content (TOC) in atmosphere and surface intensity of the global solar radiation. Differences between the satellite- and ground-based measurements of the TOC at the Vernadsky Station are taken into consideration. The modelled erythemally effective UVB radiation differed slightly depending on the seasons and sources of the TOC. The model relative prediction error for ground- and satellite-based measurements varied between 9.5% and 9.6% in the period of 2002-2003, while it ranged from 7.4% to 8.8% in the period of 2003-2004.

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Purpose: To develop and optimise some variables that influence fluoxetine orally disintegrating tablets (ODTs) formulation. Methods: Fluoxetine ODTs tablets were prepared using direct compression method. Three-factor, 3- level Box-Behnken design was used to optimize and develop fluoxetine ODT formulation. The design suggested 15 formulations of different lubricant concentration (X1), lubricant mixing time (X2), and compression force (X3) and then their effect was monitored on tablet weight (Y1), thickness (Y2), hardness (Y3), % friability (Y4), and disintegration time (Y5). Results: All powder blends showed acceptable flow properties, ranging from good to excellent. The disintegration time (Y5) was affected directly by lubricant concentration (X1). Lubricant mixing time (X2) had a direct effect on tablet thickness (Y2) and hardness (Y3), while compression force (X3) had a direct impact on tablet hardness (Y3), % friability (Y4) and disintegration time (Y5). Accordingly, Box-Behnken design suggested an optimized formula of 0.86 mg (X1), 15.3 min (X2), and 10.6 KN (X3). Finally, the prediction error percentage responses of Y1, Y2, Y3, Y4, and Y5 were 0.31, 0.52, 2.13, 3.92 and 3.75 %, respectively. Formula 4 and 8 achieved 90 % of drug release within the first 5 min of dissolution test. Conclusion: Fluoxetine ODT formulation has been developed and optimized successfully using Box- Behnken design and has also been manufactured efficiently using direct compression technique.

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In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency’s safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.