Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.

Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.

Rainforest Aerosols as Biogenic Nuclei of Clouds and Precipitation in the Amazon

The Amazon is one of the few continental regions where atmospheric aerosol particles and their effects on climate are not dominated by anthropogenic sources. During the wet season, the ambient conditions approach those of the pristine pre-industrial era. We show that the fine submicrometer particles accounting for most cloud condensation nuclei are predominantly composed of secondary organic material formed by oxidation of gaseous biogenic precursors. Supermicrometer particles, which are relevant as ice nuclei, consist mostly of primary biological material directly released from rainforest biota. The Amazon Basin appears to be a biogeochemical reactor, in which the biosphere and atmospheric photochemistry produce nuclei for clouds and precipitation sustaining the hydrological cycle. The prevailing regime of aerosol-cloud interactions in this natural environment is distinctly different from polluted regions.

How do neighbouring populations affect local population change over time?

This study covers a period when society changed from a pre-industrial agricultural society to a post-industrial service-producing society. Parallel with this social transformation, major population changes took place. In this study, we analyse how local population changes are affected by neighbouring populations. To do so we use the last 200 years of local population change that redistributed population in Sweden. We use literature to identify several different processes and spatial dependencies in the redistribution between a parish and its surrounding parishes. The analysis is based on a unique unchanged historical parish division, and we use an index of local spatial correlation to describe different kinds of spatial dependencies that have influenced the redistribution of the population. To control inherent time dependencies, we introduce a non-separable spatial temporal correlation model into the analysis of population redistribution. Hereby, several different spatial dependencies can be observed simultaneously over time. The main conclusions are that while local population changes have been highly dependent on the neighbouring populations in the 19th century, this spatial dependence have become insignificant already when two parishes is separated by 5 kilometres in the late 20th century. Another conclusion is that the time dependency in the population change is higher when the population redistribution is weak, as it currently is and as it was during the 19th century until the start of industrial revolution.

Estado capaz (desenvolvimentista) e democracia em países pré-industriais

This paper distinguishes three types of countries (rich, middle-income, and pre-industrial) and discusses the problems of state capability and the quality of democracy in the later, which include the poor countries. A consolidate democracy supposes that the country has realized its capitalist revolution and counts with a relatively capable state. The challenge of pre-industrial countries is to build their nation and a reasonably capable state, and to make their national and industrial revolution. The democratic state will be its main instrument to achieve the five political objectives that modern societies defined historically: security, individual liberty, economic well-being, social justice, and protection of the environment. Given the demand of the people and the pressure of rich countries since the 1980s, this state will have to be democratic, but, historically, all industrial revolutions were the outcome of a developmental strategy, and none of them were accomplished in the realm of democracy. This is the main contradiction and the main challenge faced by populist leaders who try to develop their countries, having as adversaries the local liberal oligarchy and the rich countries or the West. They must build a capable state, but their poorly organized societies do not help. They must give priority to economic growth, but the people ask for more social services. Thus, to govern these countries is extremely difficult.

Variabilidade espacial e sazonal da concentração de elementos-traço em sedimentos do sistema estuarino de Santos-Cubatão (SP)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Uma modelagem de sequestro e armazenamento de dióxido de carbono atmosférico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Influência do aparelho fotoativador na resistência ao desgaste de compósitos restauradores

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The illuminist discourse of the digital divide: a critic to the Post-Fordist Informatic Mundaneum from Knoxville, Tennessee

This article discusses the project of the Information Society and the discourses that undergo it, as part of a political and ideological conception universalized by those countries that created and dominate computer technology, which is in turn is aligned with the Post-Fordist industrial capitalist order and its emphasis on economic accumulation and consumerism. We explain how information technology creates routines and legitimate social orders, taking for analyzes the case of the Clinton-Gore policy in the United States, when the discourse of the computer society was associated with the development and social welfare. This association is revealed in the speech made by Clinton in the city of Knoxville in year 1996. There we see the beginnings of the concern about the Digital Divide as a new form of "social disease" that prevents the passage to a better world, focused on productivity, accumulation and consumption in information-dense societies. This generates a clash between the industrial-graph-centric world and the oral-pre-industrial communities, as a result of attempting to transplant the institutional forms of the developed West. We explain the pillars of the new computerized order, and how they replaced previous epic narratives creating techno-deterministic or techno-phobic discourses in prejudice of more critical approaches. We identify the effects such deterministic discourses that connote the association between the Information Society, welfare and development, questioning the urgency of deploying this system at global level without profound critical discussion, clear goals focused on the benefit of the human beings, and the open participation of the users of the system.

O papel do designer contemporâneo a partir das contribuições europeias na formação do profissional

This article presents a reflection on the profession of designer from the historical period for the pre-industrial revolution approaching the figure of the industrial designer in France and emphasizes the special attention given to it in England as the focus of the Industrial Revolution. Deals with some of the changes that the designer profession suffered along the way, that these changes occur in parallel to social, economic, technological. This study also reflects on the role of the professional in contemporary society and the challenges facing the profession.

Marinetti ultimo mitografo

La ricognizione delle opere composte da Filippo Tommaso Marinetti tra il 1909 e il 1912 è sostenuta da una tesi paradossale: il futurismo di Marinetti non sarebbe un'espressione della modernità, bensì una reazione anti-moderna, che dietro a una superficiale ed entusiastica adesione ad alcune parole d'ordine della seconda rivoluzione industriale nasconderebbe un pessimismo di fondo nei confronti dell'uomo e della storia. In questo senso il futurismo diventa un emblema del ritardo culturale e del gattopardismo italiano, e anticipa l’analoga operazione svolta in politica da Mussolini: dietro un’adesione formale ad alcune istanze della modernità, la preservazione dello Status Quo. Marinetti è descritto come un corpo estraneo rispetto alla cultura scientifica del Novecento: un futurista senza futuro (rarissime in Marinetti sono le proiezioni fantascientifiche). Questo aspetto è particolarmente evidente nelle opere prodotte del triennio 1908-1911, che non solo sono molto diverse dalle opere futuriste successive, ma per alcuni aspetti rappresentano una vera e propria antitesi di ciò che diventerà il futurismo letterario a partire dal 1912, con la pubblicazione del Manifesto tecnico della letteratura futurista e l'invenzione delle parole in libertà. Nelle opere precedenti, a un sostanziale disinteresse per il progressismo tecnologico corrispondeva un'attenzione ossessiva per la corporeità e un ricorso continuo all'allegoria, con effetti particolarmente grotteschi (soprattutto nel romanzo Mafarka le futuriste) nei quali si rilevano tracce di una concezione del mondo di sapore ancora medioevo-rinascimentale. Questa componente regressiva del futurismo marinettiano viene platealmente abbandonata a partire dal 1912, con Zang Tumb Tumb, salvo riaffiorare ciclicamente, come una corrente sotterranea, in altre fasi della sua carriera: nel 1922, ad esempio, con la pubblicazione de Gli indomabili (un’altra opera allegorica, ricca di reminiscenze letterarie). Quella del 1912 è una vera e propria frattura, che nel primo capitolo è indagata sia da un punto di vista storico (attraverso la documentazione epistolare e giornalistica vengono portate alla luce le tensioni che portarono gran parte dei poeti futuristi ad abbandonare il movimento proprio in quell'anno) che da un punto di vista linguistico: sono sottolineate le differenze sostanziali tra la produzione parolibera e quella precedente, e si arrischia anche una spiegazione psicologica della brusca svolta impressa da Marinetti al suo movimento. Nel secondo capitolo viene proposta un'analisi formale e contenutistica della ‘funzione grottesca’ nelle opere di Marinetti. Nel terzo capitolo un'analisi comparata delle incarnazioni della macchine ritratte nelle opere di Marinetti ci svela che quasi sempre in questo autore la macchina è associata al pensiero della morte e a una pulsione masochistica (dominante, quest'ultima, ne Gli indomabili); il che porta ad arrischiare l'ipotesi che l'esperienza futurista, e in particolare il futurismo parolibero posteriore al 1912, sia la rielaborazione di un trauma. Esso può essere interpretato metaforicamente come lo choc del giovane Marinetti, balzato in pochi anni dalle sabbie d'Alessandria d'Egitto alle brume industriali di Milano, ma anche come una reale esperienza traumatica (l'incidente automobilistico del 1908, “mitologizzato” nel primo manifesto, ma che in realtà fu vissuto dall'autore come esperienza realmente perturbante).

Stable isotope investigations of atmospheric nitrous oxide

ZusammenfassungDie Analyse von Isotopenverhältnissen ist von wachsender Bedeutung bei der Untersuchung von Quellen, Senken und chemischen Reaktionswegen atmosphärischer Spurengase. Distickstoffoxid (N2O) hat vier isotopisch einfach substituierte Spezies: 14N15N16O, 15N14N16O, 14N217O und 14N218O. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden massenspektrometrische Methoden entwickelt, die eine komplette Charakterisierung der Variationen im Vorkommen dieser Spezies ermöglichen. Es wird die bisher umfassendste Darstellung dieser Variationen in Troposphäre und Stratosphäre gegeben und mit Bezug auf eine Reihe von Laborexperimenten detailliert interpretiert.Die Laborexperimente machen einen großen Anteil dieser Doktorarbeit aus und konzentrieren sich auf die Isotopenfraktionierung in den stratosphärischen N2O-Senken, d. h. Photolyse und Reaktion mit elektronisch angeregten Sauerstoffatomen, O(1D). Diese Prozesse sind von dominantem Einfluß auf die Isotopenzusammensetzung von atmosphärischem N2O. Potentiell wichtige Parameter wie Temperatur- und Druckvariationen, aber auch Veränderungen der Wellenlänge im Fall der Photolyse wurden berücksichtigt. Photolyse bei stratosphärisch relevanten Wellenlängen > 190 nm zeigte immer Anreicherungen von 15N in beiden Stickstoffatomen des verbleibenden N2O wie auch in 17O und 18O. Die Anreicherungen waren am mittelständigen N-Atom signifikant höher als am endständigen N (mit mittleren Werten für 18O) und stiegen zu größeren Wellenlängen und niedrigeren Temperaturen hin an. Erstmalig wurden für 18O und 15N am endständigen N-Atom Isotopenabreicherungen bei 185 nm-Photolyse festgestellt. Im Gegensatz zur Photolyse waren die Isotopenanreicherungen bei der zweiten wichtigen N2O-Senke, Reaktion mit O(1D) vergleichsweise gering. Jedoch war das positionsabhängige Fraktionierungsmuster dem der Photolyse direkt entgegengesetzt und zeigte größere Anreicherungen am endständigen N-Atom. Demgemäß führen beiden Senkenprozesse zu charakteristischen Isotopensignaturen in stratosphärischem N2O. Weitere N2O-Photolyseexperimente zeigten, daß 15N216O in der Atmosphäre höchstwahrscheinlich mit der statistisch zu erwartenden Häufigkeit vorkommt.Kleine stratosphärische Proben erforderten die Anpassung der massenspektrometrischen Methoden an Permanentflußtechniken, die auch für Messungen an Firnluftproben von zwei antarktischen Stationen verwendet wurden. Das 'Firnluftarchiv' erlaubte es, den gegenwärtigen Trend und die präindustriellen Werte der troposphärischen N2O-Isotopensignatur zu bestimmen. Ein daraus konstruiertes globales N2O-Isotopenbudget ist im Einklang mit den besten Schätzungen der Gesamt-N2O-Emissionen aus Böden und Ozeanen.17O-Messungen bestätigten die Sauerstoffisotopenanomalie in atmosphärischem N2O, zeigten aber auch, daß N2O-Photolyse die Sauerstoffisotope gemäß einem massenabhängigen Fraktionierungsgesetz anreichert. Eine troposphärische Ursache für einen Teil des Exzeß-17O wurde vorgeschlagen, basierend auf der Reaktion von NH2 mit NO2, wodurch die Sauerstoffisotopenanomalie von O3 über NO2 an N2O übertragen wird.

Studio dell’evoluzione dei segni del paesaggio rurale tradizionale: una proposta di metodo parametrico ed applicazione alla scala dell’azienda agricola

Il presupposto della ricerca consiste nel riconosciuto valore storico-testimoniale e identitario e in un significativo potenziale d’indicazione pianificatoria e progettuale che detengono in sé i segni del paesaggio rurale tradizionale. Allo stato attuale, sebbene tali valori vengano ampiamente affermati sia nell’ambiente normativo-amministrativo che in quello scientifico, è tuttora riscontrabile una carenza di appropriati metodi e tecniche idonei a creare opportuni quadri conoscitivi per il riconoscimento, la catalogazione e il monitoraggio dei paesaggi rurali tradizionali a supporto di politiche, di piani e di progetti che interessano il territorio extraurbano. La ricerca si prefigge l’obiettivo generale della messa a punto di un set articolato ed originale di strumenti analitici e interpretativi di carattere quantitativo idonei per lo studio delle trasformazioni fisiche dei segni del paesaggio rurale tradizionale e per la valutazione del loro grado di integrità e rilevanza alla scala dell’azienda agricola. Tale obiettivo primario si è tradotto in obiettivi specifici, il cui conseguimento implica il ricorso ad un caso studio territoriale. A tal proposito è stato individuato un campione di 11 aziende agricole assunte quali aree studio, per una superficie complessiva pari all’incirca 200 ha, localizzate nel territorio dell’alta pianura imolese (Emilia-Romagna). L’analisi e l’interpretazione quantitativa delle trasformazioni fisiche avvenute a carico dei sopraccitati segni sono state condotte a decorrere da prima dell’industrializzazione all’attualità e per numerosi istanti temporali. Lo studio si presenta sia come contributo di metodo concernente la lettura diacronica dei caratteri tradizionali spaziali e compositivi del territorio rurale, sia come contributo conoscitivo relativo alle dinamiche evolutive dei paesaggi tradizionali rurali dell’area indagata.

Simultaneous stable isotope analysis of methane and nitrous oxide on ice core samples

Methane and nitrous oxide are important greenhouse gases which show a strong increase in atmospheric mixing ratios since pre-industrial time as well as large variations during past climate changes. The understanding of their biogeochemical cycles can be improved using stable isotope analysis. However, high-precision isotope measurements on air trapped in ice cores are challenging because of the high susceptibility to contamination and fractionation. Here, we present a dry extraction system for combined CH4 and N2O stable isotope analysis from ice core air, using an ice grating device. The system allows simultaneous analysis of δD(CH4) or δ13C(CH4), together with δ15N(N2O), δ18O(N2O) and δ15N(NO+ fragment) on a single ice core sample, using two isotope mass spectrometry systems. The optimum quantity of ice for analysis is about 600 g with typical "Holocene" mixing ratios for CH4 and N2O. In this case, the reproducibility (1σ ) is 2.1‰ for δD(CH4), 0.18‰ for δ13C(CH4), 0.51‰ for δ15N(N2O), 0.69‰ for δ18O(N2O) and 1.12‰ for δ15N(NO+ fragment). For smaller amounts of ice the standard deviation increases, particularly for N2O isotopologues. For both gases, small-scale intercalibrations using air and/or ice samples have been carried out in collaboration with other institutes that are currently involved in isotope measurements of ice core air. Significant differences are shown between the calibration scales, but those offsets are consistent and can therefore be corrected for.