Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

Novel concepts for a planetary surface exploration rover

Purpose - This paper aims to address some of the needs of present and upcoming rover designs, and introduces novel concepts incorporated in a planetary surface exploration rover design that is currently under development. Design/methodology/approach - The Multitasking Rover (MTR) is a highly re-configurable system that aims to demonstrate functionality that will cover many of the current and future needs such as rough-terrain mobility, modularity and upgradeability. It comprises a surface mobility platform which is highly re-configurable, which offers centre of mass re-allocation and rough terrain stability, and also a set of science/tool packs - individual subsystems encapsulated in packs which the rover picks up, transports and deploys. Findings - Early testing of the suspension system suggests exceptional performance characteristics. Originality/value - Principles employed in the design of the MTR can be used in future rover systems to reduce associated mission costs and at the same time provide multiples the functionality.

On spectral invariance of single scattering albedo for water droplets and ice crystals at weakly absorbing wavelengths

The single scattering albedo w_0l in atmospheric radiative transfer is the ratio of the scattering coefficient to the extinction coefficient. For cloud water droplets both the scattering and absorption coefficients, thus the single scattering albedo, are functions of wavelength l and droplet size r. This note shows that for water droplets at weakly absorbing wavelengths, the ratio w_0l(r)/w_0l(r0) of two single scattering albedo spectra is a linear function of w_0l(r). The slope and intercept of the linear function are wavelength independent and sum to unity. This relationship allows for a representation of any single scattering albedo spectrum w_0l(r) via one known spectrum w_0l(r0). We provide a simple physical explanation of the discovered relationship. Similar linear relationships were found for the single scattering albedo spectra of non-spherical ice crystals.

Comparison of MODIS broadband albedo over an agricultural site with ground measurements and values derived from Earth observation data at a range of spatial scales

Land surface albedo is dependent on atmospheric state and hence is difficult to validate. Over the UK persistent cloud cover and land cover heterogeneity at moderate (km-scale) spatial resolution can also complicate comparison of field-measured albedo with that derived from instruments such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). A practical method of comparing moderate resolution satellite-derived albedo with ground-based measurements over an agricultural site in the UK is presented. Point measurements of albedo made on the ground are scaled up to the MODIS resolution (1 km) through reflectance data obtained at a range of spatial scales. The point measurements of albedo agreed in magnitude with MODIS values over the test site to within a few per cent, despite problems such as persistent cloud cover and the difficulties of comparing measurements made during different years. Albedo values derived from airborne and field-measured data were generally lower than the corresponding satellite-derived values. This is thought to be due to assumptions made regarding the ratio of direct to diffuse illumination used when calculating albedo from reflectance. Measurements of albedo calculated for specific times fitted closely to the trajectories of temporal albedo derived from both Systeme pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) Vegetation (VGT) and MODIS instruments.

Constraints on wave drag parameterization schemes for simulating the quasi-biennial oscillation. Part II: combined effects of gravity waves and equatorial planetary waves

This study examines the effect of combining equatorial planetary wave drag and gravity wave drag in a one-dimensional zonal mean model of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Several different combinations of planetary wave and gravity wave drag schemes are considered in the investigations, with the aim being to assess which aspects of the different schemes affect the nature of the modeled QBO. Results show that it is possible to generate a realistic-looking QBO with various combinations of drag from the two types of waves, but there are some constraints on the wave input spectra and amplitudes. For example, if the phase speeds of the gravity waves in the input spectrum are large relative to those of the equatorial planetary waves, critical level absorption of the equatorial planetary waves may occur. The resulting mean-wind oscillation, in that case, is driven almost exclusively by the gravity wave drag, with only a small contribution from the planetary waves at low levels. With an appropriate choice of wave input parameters, it is possible to obtain a QBO with a realistic period and to which both types of waves contribute. This is the regime in which the terrestrial QBO appears to reside. There may also be constraints on the initial strength of the wind shear, and these are similar to the constraints that apply when gravity wave drag is used without any planetary wave drag. In recent years, it has been observed that, in order to simulate the QBO accurately, general circulation models require parameterized gravity wave drag, in addition to the drag from resolved planetary-scale waves, and that even if the planetary wave amplitudes are incorrect, the gravity wave drag can be adjusted to compensate. This study provides a basis for knowing that such a compensation is possible.

Planetary-wave-induced transport in the stratosphere

In the stratosphere, chemical tracers are drawn systematically from the equator to the pole. This observed Brewer–Dobson circulation is driven by wave drag, which in the stratosphere arises mainly from the breaking and dissipation of planetary-scale Rossby waves. While the overall sense of the circulation follows from fundamental physical principles, a quantitative theoretical understanding of the connection between wave drag and Lagrangian transport is limited to linear, small-amplitude waves. However, planetary waves in the stratosphere generally grow to a large amplitude and break in a strongly nonlinear fashion. This paper addresses the connection between stratospheric wave drag and Lagrangian transport in the presence of strong nonlinearity, using a mechanistic three-dimensional primitive equations model together with offline particle advection. Attention is deliberately focused on a weak forcing regime, such that sudden warmings do not occur and a quasi-steady state is reached, in order to examine this question in the cleanest possible context. Wave drag is directly linked to the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) circulation, which is often used as a surrogate for mean Lagrangian motion. The results show that the correspondence between the TEM and mean Lagrangian velocities is quantitatively excellent in regions of linear, nonbreaking waves (i.e., outside the surf zone), where streamlines are not closed. Within the surf zone, where streamlines are closed and meridional particle displacements are large, the agreement between the vertical components of the two velocity fields is still remarkably good, especially wherever particle paths are coherent so that diabatic dispersion is minimized. However, in this region the meridional mean Lagrangian velocity bears little relation to the meridional TEM velocity, and reflects more the kinematics of mixing within and across the edges of the surf zone. The results from the mechanistic model are compared with those from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model to test the robustness of the conclusions.

Nonlinear symmetric stability of planetary atmospheres

The energy–Casimir method is applied to the problem of symmetric stability in the context of a compressible, hydrostatic planetary atmosphere with a general equation of state. Formal stability criteria for symmetric disturbances to a zonally symmetric baroclinic flow are obtained. In the special case of a perfect gas the results of Stevens (1983) are recovered. Finite-amplitude stability conditions are also obtained that provide an upper bound on a certain positive-definite measure of disturbance amplitude.

A survey for planetary transits in the field of NGC 7789

We present results from 30 nights of observations of the open cluster NGC 7789 with the Wide Field Camera on the Isaac Newton Telescope, La Palma. From ~900 epochs, we obtained light curves and Sloan r'-i' colours for ~33000 stars, with ~2400 stars having better than 1 per cent precision. We expected to detect ~2 transiting hot Jupiter planets if 1 per cent of stars host such a companion and a typical hot Jupiter radius is ~1.2R_J. We find 24 transit candidates, 14 of which we can assign a period. We rule out the transiting planet model for 21 of these candidates using various robust arguments. For two candidates, we are unable to decide on their nature, although it seems most likely that they are eclipsing binaries as well. We have one candidate exhibiting a single eclipse, for which we derive a radius of 1.81+0.09-0.00R_J. Three candidates remain that require follow-up observations in order to determine their nature.

Assessing the benefits of crop albedo bio-geoengineering

It has been proposed that growing crop varieties with higher canopy albedo would lower summer-time temperatures over North America and Eurasia and provide a partial mitigation of global warming ('bio-geoengineering') (Ridgwell et al 2009 Curr. Biol. 19 1–5). Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere–vegetation model (HadCM3) with prescribed agricultural regions, to investigate to what extent the regional effectiveness of crop albedo bio-geoengineering might be influenced by a progressively warming climate as well as assessing the impacts on regional hydrological cycling and primary productivity. Consistent with previous analysis, we find that the averted warming due to increasing crop canopy albedo by 0.04 is regionally and seasonally specific, with the largest cooling of ~1 °C for Europe in summer whereas in the low latitude monsoonal SE Asian regions of high density cropland, the greatest cooling is experienced in winter. In this study we identify potentially important positive impacts of increasing crop canopy albedo on soil moisture and primary productivity in European cropland regions, due to seasonal increases in precipitation. We also find that the background climate state has an important influence on the predicted regional effectiveness of bio-geoengineering on societally-relevant timescales (ca 100 years). The degree of natural climate variability and its dependence on greenhouse forcing that are evident in our simulations highlights the difficulties faced in the detection and verification of climate mitigation in geoengineering schemes. However, despite the small global impact, regionally focused schemes such as crop albedo bio-geoengineering have detection advantages.

Structure of the planetary boundary layer over southeast England: modeling and measurements

The Weather Research and Forecasting model was applied to analyze variations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure over Southeast England including central and suburban London. The parameterizations and predictive skills of two nonlocal mixing PBL schemes, YSU and ACM2, and two local mixing PBL schemes, MYJ and MYNN2, were evaluated over a variety of stability conditions, with model predictions at a 3 km grid spacing. The PBL height predictions, which are critical for scaling turbulence and diffusion in meteorological and air quality models, show significant intra-scheme variance (> 20%), and the reasons are presented. ACM2 diagnoses the PBL height thermodynamically using the bulk Richardson number method, which leads to a good agreement with the lidar data for both unstable and stable conditions. The modeled vertical profiles in the PBL, such as wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and heat flux, exhibit large spreads across the PBL schemes. The TKE predicted by MYJ were found to be too small and show much less diurnal variation as compared with observations over London. MYNN2 produces better TKE predictions at low levels than MYJ, but its turbulent length scale increases with height in the upper part of the strongly convective PBL, where it should decrease. The local PBL schemes considerably underestimate the entrainment heat fluxes for convective cases. The nonlocal PBL schemes exhibit stronger mixing in the mean wind fields under convective conditions than the local PBL schemes and agree better with large-eddy simulation (LES) studies.

Global analysis of radiative forcing from fire-induced shortwave albedo change

Land surface albedo, a key parameter to derive Earth's surface energy balance, is used in the parameterization of numerical weather prediction, climate monitoring and climate change impact assessments. Changes in albedo due to fire have not been fully investigated on a continental and global scale. The main goal of this study, therefore, is to quantify the changes in instantaneous shortwave albedo produced by biomass burning activities and their associated radiative forcing. The study relies on the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD64A1 burned-area product to create an annual composite of areas affected by fire and the MCD43C2 bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) albedo snow-free product to compute a bihemispherical reflectance time series. The approximate day of burning is used to calculate the instantaneous change in shortwave albedo. Using the corresponding National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monthly mean downward solar radiation flux at the surface, the global radiative forcing associated with fire was computed. The analysis reveals a mean decrease in shortwave albedo of −0.014 (1σ = 0.017), causing a mean positive radiative forcing of 3.99 Wm−2 (1σ = 4.89) over the 2002–20012 time period in areas affected by fire. The greatest drop in mean shortwave albedo change occurs in 2002, which corresponds to the highest total area burned (378 Mha) observed in the same year and produces the highest mean radiative forcing (4.5 Wm−2). Africa is the main contributor in terms of burned area, but forests globally give the highest radiative forcing per unit area and thus give detectable changes in shortwave albedo. The global mean radiative forcing for the whole period studied (~0.0275 Wm−2) shows that the contribution of fires to the Earth system is not insignificant.