Genetic Algorithm Search for Predictive Patterns in Multidimensional Time Series

Based on an algorithm for pattern matching in character strings, we implement a pattern matching machine that searches for occurrences of patterns in multidimensional time series. Before the search process takes place, time series are encoded in user-designed alphabets. The patterns, on the other hand, are formulated as regular expressions that are composed of letters from these alphabets and operators. Furthermore, we develop a genetic algorithm to breed patterns that maximize a user-defined fitness function. In an application to financial data, we show that patterns bred to predict high exchange rates volatility in training samples retain statistically significant predictive power in validation samples.

Measuring inconsistency in network intrusion rules

In this preliminary case study, we investigate how inconsistency in a network intrusion detection rule set can be measured. To achieve this, we first examine the structure of these rules which incorporate regular expression (Regex) pattern matching. We then identify primitive elements in these rules in order to translate the rules into their (equivalent) logical forms and to establish connections between them. Additional rules from background knowledge are also introduced to make the correlations among rules more explicit. Finally, we measure the degree of inconsistency in formulae of such a rule set (using the Scoring function, Shapley inconsistency values and Blame measure for prioritized knowledge) and compare the informativeness of these measures. We conclude that such measures are useful for the network intrusion domain assuming that incorporating domain knowledge for correlation of rules is feasible.

Measuring Inconsistency in a Network Intrusion Detection Rule Set Based on Snort

In this preliminary study, we investigate how inconsistency in a network intrusion detection rule set can be measured. To achieve this, we first examine the structure of these rules which are based on Snort and incorporate regular expression (Regex) pattern matching. We then identify primitive elements in these rules in order to translate the rules into their (equivalent) logical forms and to establish connections between them. Additional rules from background knowledge are also introduced to make the correlations among rules more explicit. We measure the degree of inconsistency in formulae of such a rule set (using the Scoring function, Shapley inconsistency values and Blame measure for prioritized knowledge) and compare the informativeness of these measures. Finally, we propose a new measure of inconsistency for prioritized knowledge which incorporates the normalized number of atoms in a language involved in inconsistency to provide a deeper inspection of inconsistent formulae. We conclude that such measures are useful for the network intrusion domain assuming that introducing expert knowledge for correlation of rules is feasible.

The geographical structure of British bird distributions:diversity, spatial turnover and scale

1. Using data on the spatial distribution of the British avifauna, we address three basic questions about the spatial structure of assemblages: (i) Is there a relationship between species richness (alpha diversity) and spatial turnover of species (beta diversity)? (ii) Do high richness locations have fewer species in common with neighbouring areas than low richness locations?, and (iii) Are any such relationships contingent on spatial scale (resolution or quadrat area), and do they reflect the operation of a particular kind of species-area relationship (SAR)?

2. For all measures of spatial turnover, we found a negative relationship with species richness. This held across all scales, with the exception of turnover measured as beta (sim).

3. Higher richness areas were found to have more species in common with neighbouring areas.

4. The logarithmic SAR fitted better than the power SAR overall, and fitted significantly better in areas with low richness and high turnover.

5. Spatial patterns of both turnover and richness vary with scale. The finest scale richness pattern (10 km) and the coarse scale richness pattern (90 km) are statistically unrelated. The same is true of the turnover patterns.

6. With coarsening scale, locations of the most species-rich quadrats move north. This observed sensitivity of richness 'hotspot' location to spatial scale has implications for conservation biology, e.g. the location of a reserve selected on the basis of maximum richness may change considerably with reserve size or scale of analysis.

7. Average turnover measured using indices declined with coarsening scale, but the average number of species gained or lost between neighbouring quadrats was essentially scale invariant at 10-13 species, despite mean richness rising from 80 to 146 species (across an 81-fold area increase). We show that this kind of scale invariance is consistent with the logarithmic SAR.

Pre-Processing Power Traces with a Phase-Sensitive Detector

As cryptographic implementations are increasingly subsumed as functional blocks within larger systems on chip, it becomes more difficult to identify the power consumption signatures of cryptographic operations amongst other unrelated processing activities. In addition, at higher clock frequencies, the current decay between successive processing rounds is only partial, making it more difficult to apply existing pattern matching techniques in side-channel analysis. We show however, through the use of a phase-sensitive detector, that power traces can be pre-processed to generate a filtered output which exhibits an enhanced round pattern, enabling the identification of locations on a device where encryption operations are occurring and also assisting with the re-alignment of power traces for side-channel attacks.

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Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática e de Computadores

A Compiler for the dependently typed language Beluga

Les structures avec des lieurs sont très communes en informatique. Les langages de programmation et les systèmes logiques sont des exemples de structures avec des lieurs. La manipulation de lieurs est délicate, de sorte que l’écriture de programmes qui ma- nipulent ces structures tirerait profit d’un soutien spécifique pour les lieurs. L’environ- nement de programmation Beluga est un exemple d’un tel système. Nous développons et présentons ici un compilateur pour ce système. Parmi les programmes pour lesquels Beluga est spécialement bien adapté, plusieurs peuvent bénéficier d’un compilateur. Par exemple, les programmes pour valider les types (les "type-checkers"), les compilateurs et les interpréteurs tirent profit du soutien spécifique des lieurs et des types dépendants présents dans le langage. Ils nécessitent tous également une exécution efficace, que l’on propose d’obtenir par le biais d’un compilateur. Le but de ce travail est de présenter un nouveau compilateur pour Beluga, qui emploie une représentation interne polyvalente et permet de partager du code entre plusieurs back-ends. Une contribution notable est la compilation du filtrage de Beluga, qui est particulièrement puissante dans ce langage.

Génération de résumés par abstraction

Cette thèse présente le résultat de plusieurs années de recherche dans le domaine de la génération automatique de résumés. Trois contributions majeures, présentées sous la forme d'articles publiés ou soumis pour publication, en forment le coeur. Elles retracent un cheminement qui part des méthodes par extraction en résumé jusqu'aux méthodes par abstraction. L'expérience HexTac, sujet du premier article, a d'abord été menée pour évaluer le niveau de performance des êtres humains dans la rédaction de résumés par extraction de phrases. Les résultats montrent un écart important entre la performance humaine sous la contrainte d'extraire des phrases du texte source par rapport à la rédaction de résumés sans contrainte. Cette limite à la rédaction de résumés par extraction de phrases, observée empiriquement, démontre l'intérêt de développer d'autres approches automatiques pour le résumé. Nous avons ensuite développé un premier système selon l'approche Fully Abstractive Summarization, qui se situe dans la catégorie des approches semi-extractives, comme la compression de phrases et la fusion de phrases. Le développement et l'évaluation du système, décrits dans le second article, ont permis de constater le grand défi de générer un résumé facile à lire sans faire de l'extraction de phrases. Dans cette approche, le niveau de compréhension du contenu du texte source demeure insuffisant pour guider le processus de sélection du contenu pour le résumé, comme dans les approches par extraction de phrases. Enfin, l'approche par abstraction basée sur des connaissances nommée K-BABS est proposée dans un troisième article. Un repérage des éléments d'information pertinents est effectué, menant directement à la génération de phrases pour le résumé. Cette approche a été implémentée dans le système ABSUM, qui produit des résumés très courts mais riches en contenu. Ils ont été évalués selon les standards d'aujourd'hui et cette évaluation montre que des résumés hybrides formés à la fois de la sortie d'ABSUM et de phrases extraites ont un contenu informatif significativement plus élevé qu'un système provenant de l'état de l'art en extraction de phrases.

Video Object Tracking And Analysis For Computer Assisted Surgery

Pedicle screw insertion technique has made revolution in the surgical treatment of spinal fractures and spinal disorders. Although X- ray fluoroscopy based navigation is popular, there is risk of prolonged exposure to X- ray radiation. Systems that have lower radiation risk are generally quite expensive. The position and orientation of the drill is clinically very important in pedicle screw fixation. In this paper, the position and orientation of the marker on the drill is determined using pattern recognition based methods, using geometric features, obtained from the input video sequence taken from CCD camera. A search is then performed on the video frames after preprocessing, to obtain the exact position and orientation of the drill. An animated graphics, showing the instantaneous position and orientation of the drill is then overlaid on the processed video for real time drill control and navigation

Evaluation Of A Novel Method Of Real Time Computer Assisted Spine Surgery

In this paper the effectiveness of a novel method of computer assisted pedicle screw insertion was studied using testing of hypothesis procedure with a sample size of 48. Pattern recognition based on geometric features of markers on the drill has been performed on real time optical video obtained from orthogonally placed CCD cameras. The study reveals the exactness of the calculated position of the drill using navigation based on CT image of the vertebra and real time optical video of the drill. The significance value is 0.424 at 95% confidence level which indicates good precision with a standard mean error of only 0.00724. The virtual vision method is less hazardous to both patient and the surgeon

Calibration of uncertain flood inundation models using remotely sensed water levels

A traditional method of validating the performance of a flood model when remotely sensed data of the flood extent are available is to compare the predicted flood extent to that observed. The performance measure employed often uses areal pattern-matching to assess the degree to which the two extents overlap. Recently, remote sensing of flood extents using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and airborne scanning laser altimetry (LIDAR) has made more straightforward the synoptic measurement of water surface elevations along flood waterlines, and this has emphasised the possibility of using alternative performance measures based on height. This paper considers the advantages that can accrue from using a performance measure based on waterline elevations rather than one based on areal patterns of wet and dry pixels. The two measures were compared for their ability to estimate flood inundation uncertainty maps from a set of model runs carried out to span the acceptable model parameter range in a GLUE-based analysis. A 1 in 5-year flood on the Thames in 1992 was used as a test event. As is typical for UK floods, only a single SAR image of observed flood extent was available for model calibration and validation. A simple implementation of a two-dimensional flood model (LISFLOOD-FP) was used to generate model flood extents for comparison with that observed. The performance measure based on height differences of corresponding points along the observed and modelled waterlines was found to be significantly more sensitive to the channel friction parameter than the measure based on areal patterns of flood extent. The former was able to restrict the parameter range of acceptable model runs and hence reduce the number of runs necessary to generate an inundation uncertainty map. A result of this was that there was less uncertainty in the final flood risk map. The uncertainty analysis included the effects of uncertainties in the observed flood extent as well as in model parameters. The height-based measure was found to be more sensitive when increased heighting accuracy was achieved by requiring that observed waterline heights varied slowly along the reach. The technique allows for the decomposition of the reach into sections, with different effective channel friction parameters used in different sections, which in this case resulted in lower r.m.s. height differences between observed and modelled waterlines than those achieved by runs using a single friction parameter for the whole reach. However, a validation of the modelled inundation uncertainty using the calibration event showed a significant difference between the uncertainty map and the observed flood extent. While this was true for both measures, the difference was especially significant for the height-based one. This is likely to be due to the conceptually simple flood inundation model and the coarse application resolution employed in this case. The increased sensitivity of the height-based measure may lead to an increased onus being placed on the model developer in the production of a valid model

Proposing a hybrid-intelligent framework to secure e-government web applications

One of the essential needs to implement a successful e-Government web application is security. Web application firewalls (WAF) are the most important tool to secure web applications against the increasing number of web application attacks nowadays. WAFs work in different modes depending on the web traffic filtering approach used, such as positive security mode, negative security mode, session-based mode, or mixed modes. The proposed WAF, which is called (HiWAF), is a web application firewall that works in three modes: positive, negative and session based security modes. The new approach that distinguishes this WAF among other WAFs is that it utilizes the concepts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) instead of regular expressions or other traditional pattern matching techniques as its filtering engine. Both artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic concepts will be used to implement a hybrid intelligent web application firewall that works in three security modes.

Small-world effects in lattice stochastic diffusion search

Stochastic Diffusion Search is an efficient probabilistic bestfit search technique, capable of transformation invariant pattern matching. Although inherently parallel in operation it is difficult to implement efficiently in hardware as it requires full inter-agent connectivity. This paper describes a lattice implementation, which, while qualitatively retaining the properties of the original algorithm, restricts connectivity, enabling simpler implementation on parallel hardware. Diffusion times are examined for different network topologies, ranging from ordered lattices, over small-world networks to random graphs.

The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk.

The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.