934 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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This paper focuses on the satirical Australian television show The Chaser’s War on Everything, and uses it to critically explore the potential ramifications of what McNair (2006) has called ‘cultural chaos’. Through an analysis of several examples from this particular program, alongside interviews with its production team and qualitative audience research, this paper argues that this TV show’s engagement with political issues in a creative, entertaining way that departs from the conventions of traditional journalism, allows it to present a perhaps more authentic image of political agents than is often cultivated in the mainstream news media. This paper therefore provides clear evidence that the shift from homogeneity to heterogeneity in the news media presents a significant challenge to those who wish to heavily control public opinion. It also provides further support for an optimistic re-appraisal of entertainment which emphasises its central (not merely periphery) role in political discourse.

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Under current law Australia appears to be a tax haven for certain non-governmental institutions. Millions of ordinary business income may go untaxed and the deductibility for donations is unlimited - both are very generous tax measures in an international context. The basic problems of most Australian nonprofit organisations are not taxation; they are just that: nonprofit. Anybody interested in the non-governmental sector should be willing to face the question: What is an equitable tax treatment? The short-term tactic of ducking the question may not be the best or most beneficial long term strategy.

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Objective: To explore psychosocial issues perceived to impact the mental health and well-being of resident (non-fly-in fly-out) mine workers at a local mine in regional Queensland. Design: A descriptive qualitative study using semistructured interviews. Setting: The research was conducted on-site at an opencut coal mine in regional Queensland. Participants: Ten miners (nine men) currently employed in workshop, production or supervisory roles. Main outcome measures: Self-reported issues affecting psychological well-being. Results: Participants’ occupation and the surrounding context appeared to have both positive and negative influences on their well-being. Overall findings could be grouped into four key themes: (i) the importance of relationships; (ii) the impact of lifestyle; (iii) work characteristics; and (iv) mental health attitudes. While not without strains on mental health, in general, participants reported that their current situation was superior to their previous mining jobs. This was attributed to close relationships among locally recruited workers, respect for management practices and rosters that allowed adequate sleep recovery and family time between shifts. Conclusions: This study is the first to examine mental health and well being in non-fly-in fly-out mining populations. It suggests that while some issues appear inherent in the mining occupation, personal and organisational support can help workers have a more positive workplace experience. Further work looking at more extensive comparisons over various mining contexts will greatly assist in the development of programs and support structures for rural and regional mine workers.

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Recently arrived older refugees in resettlement countries are a particularly vulnerable population who face many risks to their health and well-being, and many challenges in accessing services.This paper reports on a project undertaken in Victoria,Australia to explore the needs of older people from 14 recently arrived refugee communities, and the barriers to their receiving health and aged care. Findings from consultations with community workers and service providers highlight the key issues of isolation, family conflict and mental illness affecting older refugees, and point to ways in which policy-makers and service providers can better respond to these small but deserving communities.

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In this paper, the authors combine Pierre Bourdieu’s concept of hysteresis (the ‘fish out of water’ experience) with the discourse historical approach to critical discourse analysis (CDA) as a theoretical and analytical framework through which they examine specific moments in the schooling experiences of one refugee student and one international student, both enrolled in post-compulsory education in Australian mainstream secondary schools. We examine specific moments – as narrated by these students during interviews – in which these students can be described as ‘fish out of water’. As such, this paper takes up the concerns of researchers who call for an examination of the lived geographies and the everyday lives of individual students in mainstream schools. We find that our students’ habitus, conditioned by their previous schooling experiences in their home countries, did not match their new Australian schools, resulting in frustration with, and alienation from, their mainstream schools. However, we also note that schools, too, need to adapt and adjust their habitus to the new multicultural world, in which there are international and refugee students among their usual cohort of mainstream students.

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Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder is a diagnostic term now indelibly scored on the public psyche. In some quarters, a diagnosis of “ADHD” is regarded with derision. In others it is welcomed with relief. Despite intense multi-disciplinary research, the jury is still out with regards to the “truth” of ADHD. Not surprisingly, the rapid increase in diagnosis over the past fifteen years, coupled with an exponential rise in the prescription of restricted class psychopharmaceuticals has stirred virulent debate. Provoking the most interest, it seems, are questions regarding causality. Typically, these revolve around possible antecedents for “disorderly” behaviour – bad food, bad tv and bad parents. Very seldom is the institution of schooling ever in the line of sight. To investigate this gap, I draw on Foucault to question what might be happening in schools and how this may be contributing to the definition, recognition and classification of particular children as a particular kind of “disorderly”.

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This paper plots the recent changes in the uses of public space in Hanoi, Vietnam. It is argued that the economic and social changes in contemporary Vietnam have paved the way for a dramatic transformation in the ways in which streets, pavements and markets are experienced and imagined by the populace. The efflorescence of individual mobility, street-trading and public crowding around certain popular events has led to the emergence of a distinct public sphere, one which is not immune from state control and censure but which is a flagrant rebuttal of the state's appeal. The immediate struggles over space herald a new discursive arena for the contest over Vietnamese national imagery as represented in cultural heritage and public space, memorials and state-controlled events which the public are rapidly deserting. The paper concludes by suggesting that the everyday cultural practices that have created a bustling streetlife in urban Vietnam will inevitably provide the vitality and spectacle for the destabilisation of state control in a struggle for meanings in public space.

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Background The Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) study is a repeated sample, longitudinal birth cohort in South East Queensland, Australia. We describe the sample characteristics and profile of maternal, household, and antenatal exposures. Variation and data stability over recruitment years were examined. Methods Four months each year from 2006, pregnant women were recruited to EFHL at routine antenatal visits on or after 24 weeks gestation, from three public maternity hospitals. Participating mothers completed a baseline questionnaire on individual, familial, social and community exposure factors. Perinatal data were extracted from hospital birth records. Descriptive statistics and measures of association were calculated comparing the EFHL birth sample with regional and national reference populations. Data stability of antenatal exposure factors was assessed across five recruitment years (2006–2010 inclusive) using the Gamma statistic for ordinal data and chi-squared for nominal data. Results Across five recruitment years 2,879 pregnant women were recruited which resulted in 2904 live births with 29 sets of twins. EFHL has a lower representation of early gestational babies, fewer still births and a lower percentage of low birth weight babies, when compared to regional data. The majority of women (65%) took a multivitamin supplement during pregnancy, 47% consumed alcohol, and 26% reported having smoked cigarettes. There were no differences in rates of a range of antenatal exposures across five years of recruitment, with the exception of increasing maternal pre-pregnancy weight (p=0.0349), decreasing rates of high maternal distress (p=0.0191) and decreasing alcohol consumption (p<0.0001). Conclusions The study sample is broadly representative of births in the region and almost all factors showed data stability over time. This study, with repeated sampling of birth cohorts over multiple years, has the potential to make important contributions to population health through evaluating longitudinal follow-up and within cohort temporal effects.

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This practice-led research project explores how humour can be employed to develop a methodology for examining the socio-political dimensions of contemporary art practice. This research aims to identify and elaborate on how using the evasive strategies and elliptical frameworks associated with ideas of the absurd and nonsense can lead to new ways of understanding the nexus between social, political and cultural practices. This is achieved primarily through an examination of the art practices of Marcel Duchamp, Bruce Nauman, and Martin Kippenberger. These artists contextualise this research because in different ways they all engage with humour as a device to critique conventional notions of how art can be read or understood. Using these strategies the project aims to demonstrate new ways for considering how visual art can use humour to creatively and critically investigate the relationships between art and the social.

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Significant problems confront our child protection out-of-home care system including: high costs; increasing numbers of children and young people entering and remaining in care longer; high frequency of placement movement; and, negative whole-of-life outcomes for children and young people who have exited care. National policy and research agendas recognise the importance of enhancing the evidence base in out-of-home care to inform the development of policy, programs and practice, and improve longitudinal outcomes of children and young people. The authors discuss the concept of placement trajectory as a framework for research and systems analysis in the out-of-home context. While not without limitations, the concept of placement trajectory is particularly useful in understanding the factors influencing placement movement and stability. Increasing the evidence base in this area can serve to enhance improved outcomes across the lifespan for children and young people in the out-of-home care system.

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Governments are challenged by the need to ensure that ageing populations stay active and engaged as they age. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the role of mobility in older people's engagement in out-of-home activities, and to identify the experiences they have within their communities. This research investigates the use of transportation by older people and its implications for their out-of-home activities within suburban environments. The qualitative, mixed-method approach employs data collection methods which include a daily travel diary (including a questionnaire), Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking and semi-structured interviews with older people living in suburban environments in Brisbane, Australia. Results show that older people are mobile throughout the city, and their car provides them with that opportunity to access desired destinations. This ability to drive allows older people to live independently and to assist others who do not drive, particularly where transport alternatives are not as accessible. The ability to transport goods and other people is a significant advantage of the private car over other transport options. People with no access to private transportation who live in low-density environments are disadvantaged when it comes to participation within the community. Further research is needed to better understand the relationship between transportation and participation within the community environment, to assist policy makers and city and transportation planners to develop strategies for age-friendly environments within the community.

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Australia's economic growth and national identity have been widely celebrated as being founded on the nation's natural resources. With the golden era of pastoralism fading into the distance, a renewed love affair with primary industries has been much lauded, particularly by purveyors of neoliberal ideology. The considerable wealth generated by resource extraction has, despite its environmental and social record, proved seductive to the university sector. The mining industry is one of a number of industries and sectors (alongside pharmaceutical, chemical and biotechnological) that is increasingly courting Australian universities. These new public-private alliances are often viewed as the much-needed cash cow to bridge the public funding shortfall in the tertiary sector. However, this trend also raises profound questions about the capacity of public good institutions, as universities were once assumed to be, to maintain institutional independence and academic freedoms.

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This paper examines the use of connectionism (neural networks) in modelling legal reasoning. I discuss how the implementations of neural networks have failed to account for legal theoretical perspectives on adjudication. I criticise the use of neural networks in law, not because connectionism is inherently unsuitable in law, but rather because it has been done so poorly to date. The paper reviews a number of legal theories which provide a grounding for the use of neural networks in law. It then examines some implementations undertaken in law and criticises their legal theoretical naïvete. It then presents a lessons from the implementations which researchers must bear in mind if they wish to build neural networks which are justified by legal theories.