950 resultados para nonstationary birth and death processes


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This work concerns dynamics and bifurcations properties of a new class of continuous-defined one-dimensional maps: Tsoularis-Wallace's functions. This family of functions naturally incorporates a major focus of ecological research: the Allee effect. We provide a necessary condition for the occurrence of this phenomenon of extinction. To establish this result we introduce the notions of Allee's functions, Allee's effect region and Allee's bifurcation curve. Another central point of our investigation is the study of bifurcation structures for this class of functions, in a three-dimensional parameter space. We verified that under some sufficient conditions, Tsoularis-Wallace's functions have particular bifurcation structures: the big bang and the double big bang bifurcations of the so-called "box-within-a-box" type. The double big bang bifurcations are related to the existence of flip codimension-2 points. Moreover, it is verified that these bifurcation cascades converge to different big bang bifurcation curves, where for the corresponding parameter values are associated distinct kinds of boxes. This work contributes to clarify the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous maps and understand their relationship with explosion birth and extinction phenomena.

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We describe the rate of incidence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) in hematologic and patients undergone stem cell transplant (HSCT) at HC-FMUSP, from January 2007 to June 2011, using two denominators 1,000 patient and 1,000 days of neutropenia and the risk factors associated with the severe form of the disease and death. The ELISA method (Ridascreen-Biopharm, Germany) for the detections of toxins A/B was used to identify C. difficile. A multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate potential factors associated with severe CDAD and death within 14 days after the diagnosis of CDAD, using multiple logistic regression. Sixty-six episodes were identified in 64 patients among 439 patients with diarrhea during the study period. CDA rate of incidence varied from 0.78 to 5.45 per 1,000 days of neutropenia and from 0.65 to 5.45 per 1,000 patient-days. The most common underlying disease was acute myeloid leukemia 30/64 (44%), 32/64 (46%) patients were neutropenic, 31/64 (45%) undergone allogeneic HSCT, 61/64 (88%) had previously used antibiotics and 9/64 (13%) have severe CDAD. Most of the patients (89%) received treatment with oral metronidazole and 19/64 (26%) died. The independent risk factors associated with death were the severe form of CDAD, and use of linezolid.

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Introduction: Maternal HIV infection and related co-morbidities may have two outstanding consequences to fetal health: mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and adverse perinatal outcomes. After Brazilian success in reducing MTCT, the attention must now be diverted to the potentially increased risk for preterm birth (PTB) and intrauterine fetal growth restriction (IUGR). Objective: To determine the prevalence of PTB and IUGR in low income, antiretroviral users, publicly assisted, HIV-infected women and to verify its relation to the HIV infection stage. Patients and Methods: Out of 250 deliveries from HIV-infected mothers that delivered at a tertiary public university hospital in the city of Vitória, state of Espírito Santo, Southeastern Brazil, from November 2001 to May 2012, 74 single pregnancies were selected for study, with ultrasound validated gestational age (GA) and data on birth dimensions: fetal weight (FW), birth length (BL), head and abdominal circumferences (HC, AC). The data were extracted from clinical and pathological records, and the outcomes summarized as proportions of preterm birth (PTB, < 37 weeks), low birth weight (LBW, < 2500g) and small (SGA), adequate (AGA) and large (LGA) for GA, defined as having a value below, between or beyond the ±1.28 z/GA score, the usual clinical cut-off to demarcate the 10th and 90th percentiles. Results: PTB was observed in 17.5%, LBW in 20.2% and SGA FW, BL, HC and AC in 16.2%, 19.1%, 13.8%, and 17.4% respectively. The proportions in HIV-only and AIDS cases were: PTB: 5.9 versus 27.5%, LBW: 14.7% versus 25.0%, SGA BW: 17.6% versus 15.0%, BL: 6.0% versus 30.0%, HC: 9.0% versus 17.9%, and AC: 13.3% versus 21.2%; only SGA BL attained a significant difference. Out of 15 cases of LBW, eight (53.3%) were preterm only, four (26.7%) were SGA only, and three (20.0%) were both PTB and SGA cases. A concomitant presence of, at least, two SGA dimensions in the same fetus was frequent. Conclusions: The proportions of preterm birth and low birth weight were higher than the local and Brazilian prevalence and a trend was observed for higher proportions of SGA fetal dimensions than the expected population distribution in this small casuistry of newborn from the HIV-infected, low income, antiretroviral users, and publicly assisted pregnant women. A trend for higher prevalence of PTB, LBW and SGA fetal dimensions was also observed in infants born to mothers with AIDS compared to HIV-infected mothers without AIDS.

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Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Engineering and Technology Sciences, Chemical Engineering.

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Nowadays, participatory processes attending the need for real democracy and transparency in governments and collectives are more needed than ever. Immediate participation through channels like social networks enable people to give their opinion and become pro-active citizens, seeking applications to interact with each other. The application described in this dissertation is a hybrid channel of communication of questions, petitions and participatory processes based on Public Participation Geographic Information System (PPGIS), Participation Geographic Information System (PGIS) and ‘soft’ (subjective data) Geographic Information System (SoftGIS) methodologies. To achieve a new approach to an application, its entire design is focused on the spatial component related with user interests. The spatial component is treated as main feature of the system to develop all others depending on it, enabling new features never seen before in social actions (questions, petitions and participatory processes). Results prove that it is possible to develop a working application mainly using open source software, with the possibility of spatial and subject filtering, visualizing and free download of actions within application. The resulting application empowers society by releasing soft data and defines a new breaking approach, unseen so far.

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El presente proyecto está dirigido a estudiar los mecanismos celulares y moleculares involucrados en la regulación de la población de lactotropas, como resultado del balance entre los procesos de proliferación y muerte celular correlacionados con la secreción de prolactina. Dentro de las vías de transducción de señales involucradas se determinará la activación de las diferentes isoformas de PKC utilizando inhibidores específicos y la participación de la vía MAPK-ERK1/2 en cultivos primarios adenohipofisarios y en la línea tumoral GH3B6. Además, se completará la caracterización morfológica y bioquímica de los diferentes procesos de muerte celular inducidos por bromocriptina en modelos de regresión de prolactinomas. Se incorporan al presente proyecto nuevas líneas de investigación dirigidas a estudiar la participación de receptores estrogénicos nucleares y de membrana sobre la actividad secretoria y proliferativa de células lactotropas. Se fija como objetivo la identificación de los mismos y su translocación intracelular en respuesta a estímulos específicos. Estas investigaciones se realizarán en cultivo primario de adenohipófisis, a nivel de microscopía electrónica y confocal. La participación de las isoformas alfa y beta de receptores estrogénicos intracelulares y de membrana en los efectos del estradiol sobre la proliferación y secreción de PRL se determinará mediante el uso de agonistas y antagonistas específicos en cultivo primario de adenohipófisis y de la línea GH3B6. Un tema de actualidad es el estudio de vías de señalización involucradas en las acciones del estrógeno en interacción con neuropéptidos o factores de crecimiento, estableciendo la interacción entre los receptores de membrana, además de posibles "crosstalk" entre diferentes rutas de transducción de señales. Como aporte a este tópico se propone estudiar los efectos genómicos y no genómicos del estradiol en interacción con TRH o FGF-2, modulando la actividad secretoria y proliferativa de las células lactotropas. Los datos obtenidos podrán contribuir al conocimiento de nuevas estrategias utilizadas para disminuir el crecimiento de tumores, inhibiendo moléculas claves como receptores de estrógenos, factores de crecimiento y algunas involucradas en las vías de señalización.

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El objetivo del presente proyecto es estudiar los procesos físicos y químicos del radical OH con compuestos orgánicos volátiles (COVs), con los cuales sea factible la formación de agregados de van der Waals (vdW) responsables de la curvatura en los gráficos de Arrhenius, empleando técnicas modernas, complementarias entre si y novedosas en el país. El problema será abordado desde tres perspectivas complementarias: 1) estudios cinéticos, 2) estudios mecanísticos y de distribución de productos y 3) estudios de la dinámica de los procesos físicos y químicos. La finalidad es alcanzar una mejor comprensión de los mecanismos que intervienen en el comportamiento químico de especies presentes en la atmósfera y obtener datos cinéticos de alta calidad que puedan alimentar modelos computacionales capaces de describir la composición de la atmósfera, presente y futura. Los objetivos son estudiar: 1) mediante fotólisis láser pulsada con detección por fluorescencia inducida por láser (PLP-LIF), en reactores de flujo, la cinética de reacción del radical OH(v”=0) con COVs que presentan gráficos de Arrhenius curvos con energías de activación negativas, tales como alcoholes insaturados, alquenos halogenados, éteres halogenados, ésteres alifáticos; 2) en una cámara de simulación de condiciones atmosféricas de gran volumen (4500 L), la identidad y el rendimiento de productos de las reacciones mencionadas, a fines de evaluar su impacto atmosférico y dilucidar los mecanismos de reacción; 3) mediante haces moleculares y espectroscopía láser, la estructura y reactividad de complejos de vdW entre alcoholes insaturados o aromáticos (cresoles) y el radical OH, como modelo de los aductos propuestos como responsables de la desviación al comportamiento de Arrhenius de las reacciones mencionadas; 4) mediante PLP-LIF y expansiones supersónicas, las constantes específicas estado a estado (ksts) de relajación/reacción del radical OH(v”=1-4) vibracionalmente excitado con los COVs mencionados. Los resultados experimentales obtenidos serán contrastados con cálculos ab-initio de estructura electrónica, los cuales apoyarán las interpretaciones, permitirán proponer estructuras de estados de transición y aductos colisionales, como así también calcular las frecuencias de vibración de los complejos de vdW para su posterior asignación en los espectros LIF y REMPI. Asimismo, los mecanismos de reacción propuestos y los parámetros cinéticos medidos experimentalmente serán comparados con aquellos obtenidos por cálculos teóricos. The aim of this project is to study the physical and chemical processes of OH radicals with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with which the formation of van der Waals (vdW) clusters, responsible for the observed curvature in the Arrhenius plots, might be feasible. The problem will be addressed as follow : 1) kinetic studies; 2) products distribution and mechanistic studies and 3) dynamical studies of the physical and chemical processes. The purpose is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms that govern the chemical behavior of species present in the atmosphere and to obtain high quality kinetic data to be used as input to computational models. We will study: 1) the reaction kinetics of OH (v”=0) radicals with VOCs such as unsaturated alcohols, halogenated alkenes, halogenated ethers, aliphatic esters, which show curved Arrhenius plots and negative activation energies, by PLP-LIF, in flow systems; 2) in a large volume (4500 L) atmospheric simulation chamber, reaction products yields in order to evaluate their atmospheric impact and reaction mechanisms; 3) using molecular beams and laser spectroscopy, the structure and reactivity of the vdW complexes formed between the unsaturated or aromatic alcohols and the OH radicals as a model of the adducts proposed as responsible for the non-Arrhenius behavior; 4) the specific state-to-state relaxation/reaction rate constants (ksts) of the vibrationally excited OH (v”=1-4) radical with the VOCs by PLP-LIF and supersonic expansions. Ab-initio calculations will be carried out to support the interpretation of the experimental results, to obtain the transition state and collisional adducts structures, as well as to calculate the vibrational frequencies of the vdW complexes to assign to the LIF and REMPI spectra. Also, the proposed reaction mechanisms and the experimentally measured kinetic parameters will be compared with those obtained from theoretical calculations.

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Background:Recent studies have suggested that B-type Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) is an important predictor of ischemia and death in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Increased levels of BNP are seen after episodes of myocardial ischemia and may be related to future adverse events.Objectives:To determine the prognostic value of BNP for major cardiac events and to evaluate its association with ischemic myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS).Methods:This study included retrospectively 125 patients admitted to the chest pain unit between 2002 and 2006, who had their BNP levels measured on admission and underwent CPM for risk stratification. BNP values were compared with the results of the MPS. The chi-square test was used for qualitative variables and the Student t test, for quantitative variables. Survival curves were adjusted using the Kaplan-Meier method and analyzed by using Cox regression. The significance level was 5%.Results:The mean age was 63.9 ± 13.8 years, and the male sex represented 51.2% of the sample. Ischemia was found in 44% of the MPS. The mean BNP level was higher in patients with ischemia compared to patients with non-ischemic MPS (188.3 ± 208.7 versus 131.8 ± 88.6; p = 0.003). A BNP level greater than 80 pg/mL was the strongest predictor of ischemia on MPS (sensitivity = 60%, specificity = 70%, accuracy = 66%, PPV = 61%, NPV = 70%), and could predict medium-term mortality (RR = 7.29, 95% CI: 0.90-58.6; p = 0.045) independently of the presence of ischemia.Conclusions:BNP levels are associated with ischemic MPS findings and adverse prognosis in patients presenting with acute chest pain to the emergency room, thus, providing important prognostic information for an unfavorable clinical outcome.

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AbstractBackground:Patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery are considered at increased risk for post-operative complications.Objective:To assess the incidence and predictors of complications and death, as well as the performance of two models of risk stratification, in vascular surgery.Methods:This study determined the incidence of cardiovascular complications and deaths within 30 days from surgery in adults. Univariate comparison and logistic regression assessed the risk factors associated with the outcomes, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assessed the discriminatory capacity of the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) and vascular study group of New England cardiac risk index (VSG-CRI).Results:141 patients (mean age, 66 years; 65% men) underwent the following surgeries: carotid (15); lower limbs (65); abdominal aorta (56); and others (5). Cardiovascular complications and death occurred within 30 days in 28 (19.9%) and 20 (14.2%) patients, respectively. The risk predictors were: age, obesity, stroke, poor functional capacity, altered scintigraphy, surgery of the aorta, and troponin change. The scores RCRI and VSG-CRI had area under the curve of 0.635 and 0.639 for early cardiovascular complications, and 0.562 and 0.610 for death in 30 days.Conclusion:In this small and selected group of patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery, the incidence of adverse events was elevated. The risk assessment indices RCRI and VSG-CRI did not perform well for complications within 30 days.

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Naturwiss., Diss., 2011