Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries

This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances: total trade balance, oil trade balance and non-oil trade balance. We employ three second-generation heterogeneous linear panel models and one recently developed non-linear panel estimation technique that allows for cross-sectional dependence. With respect to 28 major oil exporting countries, an increase in oil prices leads to an improved real oil trade balance, although it is detrimental to non-oil and total trade balances. This finding might be due to the expenditure effect arising from increases in proceeds from oil exports. A decrease in oil prices is found to be beneficial for both total and oil trade balances in these oil exporting countries. Forty major oil importers seem to be increasingly shielded from positive oil shocks over the 1970s and 1980s; however, they must worry about oil price declines. A decline in oil prices has a negative impact on both total and real oil trade balances resulting from increased oil imports in emerging economies. Hence, a decline in oil prices is beneficial to oil exporters due to the quantity effect outweighing the price effect, while for oil importers a stable oil price is more desirable than a price decline. These results are important to take into account if we are to gain a full understanding on the magnitude of the trade and macroeconomic effects of oil price changes and what the policy responses should be.

Alguns gestores de fundos de ações são melhores do que outros? Uma análise cross-sectional das características dos gestores e do desempenho dos fundos

A área de fundos de investimento tem crescido no Brasil nos últimos 7 anos. Movimento semelhante tem sido observado no percentual destinado a fundos de ações. Parte deste movimento pode ser creditado à entrada de atores sem familiaridade com o universo financeiro, mas que vislumbram neste segmento uma oportunidade para investir seu dinheiro. O desconhecimento do funcionamento do universo financeiro leva o novo investidor a eleger critérios para seleção de onde alocar os seus recursos, já que se espera que um gestor profissional faça as melhores escolhas. Segundo Chevalier & Ellison (1999), a imprensa financeira produz um grande volume e variedade de informação sobre as pessoas que gerenciam esses fundos, mas pouco se fala de seus antecedentes educacionais. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar se o desempenho dos fundos de ações esta relacionado com as características dos gestores desses fundos. Em particular, se estudou a relação entre o desempenho dos fundos e a formação dos gestores, a qualidade das escolas em que cursaram, bem como o fato de possuírem pós-graduação Lato Sensu ou Stricto Sensu, além da idade e seu “tempo de experiência” no mercado financeiro. Utilizamos como base os dados coletados pelo sistema QUANTUN AXIS (Quantun Avaliação de Fundos de Investimento), tendo como referência o período de setembro/2007 a 2008. Consultamos currículos dos 81 gestores da amostra por meio de buscas aos sites das empresas administradoras, consulta por telefone aos gestores, e currículos via difusores de informação como o Bloomberg. Foram então realizadas as análises Cross-Section. Para tal, foi utilizada uma corrente de investigação que analisou o impacto dos antecedentes educacionais dos gestores de fundos sobre os resultados dos mesmos nos EUA, destacando os trabalhos de Golec (1996), Chevalier & Ellison (1999) e Gottesman & Morey (2006). O resultado deste trabalho sugere que existe diferença na análise cross-sectional entre o desempenho dos fundos de ações no Brasil e a qualidade do curso de graduação do gestor. Futuras pesquisas poderiam, utilizando a mesma amostra de gestores, acompanhar a evolução dos dados do currículo em comparação ao desempenho dos fundos administrados em uma perspectiva temporal utilizando dados de painel.

Medical students' personal choice for mode of delivery in Santa Catarina, Brazil: a cross-sectional, quantitative study

Background: The increase in overall rates of cesarean sections (CS) in Brazil causes concern and it appears that multiple factors are involved in this fact. In 2009, undergraduate students in the first and final years of medical school at the University of Santa Catarina answered questionnaires regarding their choice of mode of delivery. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether the education process affects decision-making regarding the waay of childbirth preferred by medical students.Methods: A cross-sectional, quantitative study was conducted based on data obtained from questionnaires applied to medical students. The questions addressed four different scenarios in childbirth, as follows: under an uneventful pregnancy; the mode of delivery for a pregnant woman under their care; the best choice as a healthcare manager and lastly, choosing the birth of their own child. For each circumstance, there was an open question to explain their choice.Results: A total of 189 students answered the questionnaires. For any uneventful pregnancy and for a pregnant woman under their care, 8.46% of the students would opt for CS. As a healthcare manager, only 2.64% of the students would recommend CS. For these three scenarios, the answers of the students in the first year did not differ from those given by students in the sixth year. In the case of the student's own or a partner's pregnancy, 41.4% of those in the sixth year and 16.8% of those in the first year would choose a CS. A positive association was found between being a sixth year student and a personal preference for CS according to logistic regression (OR = 2.91; 95%CI: 1.03-8.30). Pain associated with vaginal delivery was usually the reason for choosing a CS.Conclusions: A higher number of sixth year students preferred a CS for their own pregnancy (or their partner's) compared to first year students. Pain associated with vaginal delivery was the most common reason given for haven chosen a CS. The students' preference for childbirth changed over time during their graduation in favor of cesarean sections. This finding deserves considerable attention when structuring medical education in Obstetrics.

Nonlinear parameter estimation in laminar forced convection within a circular sector tube

In this article we examine an inverse heat convection problem of estimating unknown parameters of a parameterized variable boundary heat flux. The physical problem is a hydrodynamically developed, thermally developing, three-dimensional steady state laminar flow of a Newtonian fluid inside a circular sector duct, insulated in the flat walls and subject to unknown wall heat flux at the curved wall. Results are presented for polynomial and sinusoidal trial functions, and the unknown parameters as well as surface heat fluxes are determined. Depending on the nature of the flow, on the position of experimental points the inverse problem sometimes could not be solved. Therefore, an identification condition is defined to specify a condition under which the inverse problem can be solved. Once the parameters have been computed it is possible to obtain the statistical significance of the inverse problem solution. Therefore, approximate confidence bounds based on standard statistical linear procedure, for the estimated parameters, are analyzed and presented.

Poverty dynamics in Costa Rica with panel data from cross-sections

Includes bibliography

Modified technique to increase nostril cross-sectional area after using rib and septal cartilage graft over alar nasal cartilages

PURPOSE: Describe a modified technique to increase nostril cross-sectional area using rib and septal cartilage graft over alar nasal cartilages. METHODS: A modified surgical technique was used to obtain, carve and insert cartilage grafts over alar nasal cartilages. This study used standardized pictures and measured 90 cadaveric nostril cross-sectional area using Autocad (c); 30 were taken before any procedure and 60 were taken after grafts over lateral crura (30 using costal cartilage and 30 using septal cartilage). Statistical analysis were assessed using a model for repeated measures and ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) for the variable "area". RESULTS: There's statistical evidence that rib cartilage graft is more effective than septal cartilage graft. The mean area after the insertion of septal cartilage graft is smaller than the mean area under rib graft treatment (no confidence interval for mean difference contains the zero value and all P-values are below the significance level of 5%). CONCLUSIONS: The technique presented is applicable to increase nostril cross section area in cadavers. This modified technique revealed to enhance more nostril cross section area with costal cartilage graft over lateral crura rather than by septal graft.

Indocyanine green angiography findings in patients with long-standing Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada disease: a cross-sectional study

Background: To investigate indocyanine green angiography (ICGA) findings in patients with long-standing Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada (VKH) disease and their correlation with disease activity on clinical examination as well as with systemic corticosteroid therapy. Methods: Twenty-eight patients (51 eyes) with long-standing (>= 6 months from disease onset) VKH disease whose treatment was tapered based only in clinical features were prospectively included at a single center in Brazil. All patients underwent standardized clinical evaluation, which included fundus photography, fluorescein angiography and ICGA. Clinical disease activity was determined based in the Standardization in Uveitis Nomenclature Working Group. Fisher exact test and logistic regression models were used for statistical analysis. Results: Disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 72.5% (31 of 51 eyes). Angiographic findings suggestive of (choroidal and/or retinal) disease activity were not observed on FA. Clinically active disease based on clinical evaluation was observed in 41.2% (21 of 51 eyes). In these 21 eyes, disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 76.2% (16 of 21 eyes); in the remaining eyes (without clinical active disease) disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 70.0% (21 of 30 eyes). In respect to systemic corticosteroid therapy, 10 patients (18 of 51 eyes) were under treatment with prednisone. In these 10 (18 of 51 eyes) patients, disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 83.3% (15 of 18 eyes); in the remaining patients (33 of 51 eyes) disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 66.7% (22 of 33 eyes). Conclusion: ICGA findings suggestive of disease-related choroidal inflammation were observed in a considerable proportion of patients with long-standing VKH disease, independent of the inflammatory status of the disease on clinical examination or current use of systemic corticosteroid. Therefore, the current study reinforces the crucial role of ICGA to assist the management and treatment of patients with long-standing VKH disease.

Smoking cessation and bronchial epithelial remodelling in COPD: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is associated with bronchial epithelial changes, including squamous cell metaplasia and goblet cell hyperplasia. These features are partially attributed to activation of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). Whereas smoking cessation reduces respiratory symptoms and lung function decline in COPD, inflammation persists. We determined epithelial proliferation and composition in bronchial biopsies from current and ex-smokers with COPD, and its relation to duration of smoking cessation. Methods 114 COPD patients were studied cross-sectionally: 99 males/15 females, age 62 ± 8 years, median 42 pack-years, no corticosteroids, current (n = 72) or ex-smokers (n = 42, median cessation duration 3.5 years), postbronchodilator FEV1 63 ± 9% predicted. Squamous cell metaplasia (%), goblet cell (PAS/Alcian Blue+) area (%), proliferating (Ki-67+) cell numbers (/mm basement membrane), and EGFR expression (%) were measured in intact epithelium of bronchial biopsies. Results Ex-smokers with COPD had significantly less epithelial squamous cell metaplasia, proliferating cell numbers, and a trend towards reduced goblet cell area than current smokers with COPD (p = 0.025, p = 0.001, p = 0.081, respectively), but no significant difference in EGFR expression. Epithelial features were not different between short-term quitters (<3.5 years) and current smokers. Long-term quitters (≥3.5 years) had less goblet cell area than both current smokers and short-term quitters (medians: 7.9% vs. 14.4%, p = 0.005; 7.9% vs. 13.5%, p = 0.008; respectively), and less proliferating cell numbers than current smokers (2.8% vs. 18.6%, p < 0.001). Conclusion Ex-smokers with COPD had less bronchial epithelial remodelling than current smokers, which was only observed after long-term smoking cessation (>3.5 years). Trial registration NCT00158847

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

Awareness and knowledge of HPV, cervical cancer, and vaccines in young women after first delivery in São Paulo, Brazil - a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background The success of HPV vaccination programs will require awareness regarding HPV associated diseases and the benefits of HPV vaccination for the general population. The aim of this study was to assess the level of awareness and knowledge of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, cervical cancer prevention, vaccines, and factors associated with HPV awareness among young women after birth of the first child. Methods This analysis is part of a cross-sectional study carried out at Hospital Maternidade Leonor Mendes de Barros, a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo. Primiparous women (15-24 years) who gave birth in that maternity hospital were included. A questionnaire that included questions concerning knowledge of HPV, cervical cancer, and vaccines was applied. To estimate the association of HPV awareness with selected factors, prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using a generalized linear model (GLM). Results Three hundred and one primiparous women were included; 37% of them reported that they "had ever heard about HPV", but only 19% and 7%, respectively, knew that HPV is a sexually transmitted infection (STI) and that it can cause cervical cancer. Seventy-four percent of interviewees mentioned the preventive character of vaccines and all participants affirmed that they would accept HPV vaccination after delivery. In the multivariate analysis, only increasing age (P for trend = 0.021) and previous STI (P < 0.001) were factors independently associated with HPV awareness ("had ever heard about HPV"). Conclusions This survey indicated that knowledge about the association between HPV and cervical cancer among primiparous young women is low. Therefore, these young low-income primiparous women could benefit greatly from educational interventions to encourage primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention programs.

Antioxidant intake among Brazilian adults - The Brazilian Osteoporosis Study (BRAZOS): a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Antioxidant nutrient intake and the lesser formation of free radicals seem to contribute to chronic diseases. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the intake profile of the main dietary antioxidants in a representative sample of the adult Brazilian population and discuss the main consequences of a low intake of these micronutrients on overall health. Methods The sample comprised 2344 individuals aged 40 years or older from 150 cities and was based on a probabilistic sample from official data. The research was conducted through in-home interviews administered by a team trained for this purpose. Dietary intake information was obtained through 24-h recall. The Nutrition Data System for Research software program was used to analyze data on the intake of vitamins A, C and E, selenium and zinc, which was compared to Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs). Differences in intake according to sex, anthropometrics, socioeconomic status and region were also evaluated. The SPSS statistical package (version 13) was used for the statistical analysis. P-values < 0.05 were considered significant. Results Higher proportions of low intake in relation to recommended values were found for vitamin E (99.7%), vitamin A (92.4%) and vitamin C (85.1%) in both genders. Intake variations were found between different regions, which may reflect cultural habits. Conclusion These results should lead to the development of public health policies that encourage educational strategies for improving the intake of micronutrients, which are essential to overall health and prevention of non-communicable diseases.

Prevalence and correlates of dizziness in community-dwelling older people: a cross sectional population based study

Abstract Background Dizziness is a common complaint among older adults and has been linked to a wide range of health conditions, psychological and social characteristics in this population. However a profile of dizziness is still uncertain which hampers clinical decision-making. We therefore sought to explore the relationship between dizziness and a comprehensive range of demographic data, diseases, health and geriatric conditions, and geriatric syndromes in a representative sample of community-dwelling older people. Methods This is a cross-sectional, population-based study derived from FIBRA (Network for the Study of Frailty in Brazilian Elderly Adults), with 391 elderly adults, both men and women, aged 65 years and older. Elderly participants living at home in an urban area were enrolled through a process of random cluster sampling of census regions. The outcome variable was the self-report of dizziness in the last year. Several feelings of dizziness were investigated including vertigo, spinning, light or heavy headedness, floating, fuzziness, giddiness and instability. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to estimate the adjusted odds ratios and build the probability model for dizziness. Results The complaint of dizziness was reported by 45% of elderly adults, from which 71.6% were women (p=0.004). The multivariate regression analysis revealed that dizziness is associated with depressive symptoms (OR = 2.08; 95% CI 1.29–3.35), perceived fatigue (OR = 1.93; 95% CI 1.21-3.10), recurring falls (OR = 2.01; 95% CI 1.11-3.62) and excessive drowsiness (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.11–3.29). The discrimination of the final model was AUC = 0.673 (95% CI 0.619-0.727) (p< 0.001). Conclusions The prevalence of dizziness in community-dwelling elderly adults is substantial. It is associated with other common geriatric conditions usually neglected in elderly adults, such as fatigue and drowsiness, supporting its possible multifactorial manifestation. Our findings demonstrate the need to expand the design in future studies, aiming to estimate risk and identify possible causal relations.

Prevalence and risk factors of Hepatitis C virus infection in Brazil, 2005 through 2009: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Hepatitis C chronic liver disease is a major cause of liver transplant in developed countries. This article reports the first nationwide population-based survey conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of HCV antibodies and associated risk factors in the urban population of Brazil. Methods The cross sectional study was conducted in all Brazilian macro-regions from 2005 to 2009, as a stratified multistage cluster sample of 19,503 inhabitants aged between 10 and 69 years, representing individuals living in all 26 State capitals and the Federal District. Hepatitis C antibodies were detected by a third-generation enzyme immunoassay. Seropositive individuals were retested by Polymerase Chain Reaction and genotyped. Adjusted prevalence was estimated by macro-regions. Potential risk factors associated with HCV infection were assessed by calculating the crude and adjusted odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p values. Population attributable risk was estimated for multiple factors using a case–control approach. Results The overall weighted prevalence of hepatitis C antibodies was 1.38% (95% CI: 1.12%–1.64%). Prevalence of infection increased in older groups but was similar for both sexes. The multivariate model showed the following to be predictors of HCV infection: age, injected drug use (OR = 6.65), sniffed drug use (OR = 2.59), hospitalization (OR = 1.90), groups socially deprived by the lack of sewage disposal (OR = 2.53), and injection with glass syringe (OR = 1.52, with a borderline p value). The genotypes 1 (subtypes 1a, 1b), 2b and 3a were identified. The estimated population attributable risk for the ensemble of risk factors was 40%. Approximately 1.3 million individuals would be expected to be anti-HCV-positive in the country. Conclusions The large estimated absolute numbers of infected individuals reveals the burden of the disease in the near future, giving rise to costs for the health care system and society at large. The known risk factors explain less than 50% of the infected cases, limiting the prevention strategies. Our findings regarding risk behaviors associated with HCV infection showed that there is still room for improving strategies for reducing transmission among drug users and nosocomial infection, as well as a need for specific prevention and control strategies targeting individuals living in poverty.

Loss of interest, depressed mood and impact on the quality of life: Cross-sectional survey

Abstract Background Depressive symptoms and chronic disease have adverse effects on patients' health-related quality of life (H-RQOL). However, little is known about this effect on H-RQOL when only the two core depressive symptoms - loss of interest and depressed mood - are considered. The objective of this study is to investigate H-RQOL in the presence of loss of interest and depressed mood at a general medical outpatient unit. Methods We evaluated 553 patients at their first attendance at a general medical outpatient unit of a teaching hospital. H-RQOL was assessed with the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). Depressed mood and loss of interest were assessed by the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders (PRIME-MD)-Patient Questionnaire. A physician performed the diagnosis of chronic diseases by clinical judgment and classified them in 13 possible pre-defined categories. We used multiple linear regression to investigate associations between each domain of H-RQOL and our two core depression symptoms. The presence of chronic diseases and demographic variables were included in the models as covariates. Results Among the 553 patients, 70.5% were women with a mean age of 41.0 years (range 18-85, SD ± 15.4). Loss of interest was reported by 54.6%, and depressed mood by 59.7% of the patients. At least one chronic disease was diagnosed in 59.5% of patients; cardiovascular disease was the most prevalent, affecting 20.6% of our patients. Loss of interest and depressed mood was significantly associated with decreased scores in all domains of H-RQOL after adjustment for possible confounders. The presence of any chronic disease was associated with a decrease in the domain of vitality. The analysis of each individual chronic disease category revealed that no category was associated with a decrease in more than one domain of H-RQOL. Conclusion Loss of interest and depressed mood were associated with significant decreases in H-RQOL. We recommend these simple tests for screening in general practice.

Influence of obesity and cardiometabolic makers on lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) activity in adolescents: the healthy young cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity (Lp-PLA2) is a good marker of cardiovascular risk in adults. It is strongly associated with stroke and many others cardiovascular events. Despite this, the impact of obesity on this enzyme activity and its relation to biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in adolescents is not very well investigated. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the influence of obesity and cardiometabolic markers on Lp-PLA2 activity in adolescents. Results This cross-sectional study included 242 adolescents (10–19 years) of both gender. These subjects were classified in Healthy Weight (n = 77), Overweight (n = 82) and Obese (n = 83) groups. Lipid profile, glucose, insulin, HDL size, LDL(−) and anti-LDL(−) antibodies were analyzed. The Lp-PLA2 activity was determined by a colorimetric commercial kit. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and body composition were monitored. Food intake was evaluated using three 24-hour diet recalls. The Lp-PLA2 activity changed in function to high BMI, waist circumference and fat mass percentage. It was also positively associated with HOMA-IR, glucose, insulin and almost all variables of lipid profile. Furthermore, it was negatively related to Apo AI (β = −0.137; P = 0.038) and strongly positively associated with Apo B (β = 0.293; P < 0.001) and with Apo B/Apo AI ratio (β = 0.343; P < 0.001). The better predictor model for enzyme activity, on multivariate analysis, included Apo B/Apo AI (β = 0.327; P < 0.001), HDL size (β = −0.326; P < 0.001), WC (β = 0.171; P = 0.006) and glucose (β = 0.119; P = 0.038). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that changes in Apo B/Apo AI ratio were associated with a 73.5 times higher risk to elevated Lp-PLA2 activity. Conclusions Lp-PLA2 changes in function of obesity, and that it shows important associations with markers of cardiovascular risk, in particular with waist circumference, glucose, HDL size and Apo B/Apo AI ratio. These results suggest that Lp-PLA2 activity can be a cardiovascular biomarker in adolescence.