The dynamical state of galaxy groups and their luminosity content

We analyse the dependence of the luminosity function (LF) of galaxies in groups on group dynamical state. We use the Gaussianity of the velocity distribution of galaxy members as a measurement of the dynamical equilibrium of groups identified in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 by Zandivarez & Martinez. We apply the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test to distinguish between groups according to whether they have Gaussian or non-Gaussian velocity distributions, i.e. whether they are relaxed or not. For these two subsamples, we compute the (0.1)r-band LF as a function of group virial mass and group total luminosity. For massive groups, , we find statistically significant differences between the LF of the two subsamples: the LFs of groups that have Gaussian velocity distributions have a brighter characteristic absolute magnitude (similar to 0.3 mag) and a steeper faint-end slope (similar to 0.25). We detect a similar effect when comparing the LF of bright [M-0.1r(group) - 5log(h) < -23.5] Gaussian and non-Gaussian groups. Our results indicate that, for massive/luminous groups, the dynamical state of the system is directly related to the luminosity of its galaxy members.

Measurement of event background fluctuations for charged particle jet reconstruction in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV

The effect of event background fluctuations on charged particle jet reconstruction in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV has been measured with the ALICE experiment. The main sources of non-statistical fluctuations are characterized based purely on experimental data with an unbiased method, as well as by using single high p(t) particles and simulated jets embedded into real Pb-Pb events and reconstructed with the anti-k(t) jet finder. The influence of a low transverse momentum cut-off on particles used in the jet reconstruction is quantified by varying the minimum track p(t) between 0.15 GeV/c and 2 GeV/c. For embedded jets reconstructed from charged particles with p(t) > 0.15 GeV/c, the uncertainty in the reconstructed jet transverse momentum due to the heavy-ion background is measured to be 11.3 GeV/c (standard deviation) for the 10% most central Pb-Pb collisions, slightly larger than the value of 11.0 GeV/c measured using the unbiased method. For a higher particle transverse momentum threshold of 2 GeV/c, which will generate a stronger bias towards hard fragmentation in the jet finding process, the standard deviation of the fluctuations in the reconstructed jet transverse momentum is reduced to 4.8-5.0 GeV/c for the 10% most central events. A non-Gaussian tail of the momentum uncertainty is observed and its impact on the reconstructed jet spectrum is evaluated for varying particle momentum thresholds, by folding the measured fluctuations with steeply falling spectra.

Anisotropic Brownian motion in ordered phases of DNA fragments

Using Fluorescence Recovery After Photobleaching, we investigate the Brownian motion of DNA rod-like fragments in two distinct anisotropic phases with a local nematic symmetry. The height of the measurement volume ensures the averaging of the anisotropy of the in-plane diffusive motion parallel or perpendicular to the local nematic director in aligned domains. Still, as shown in using a model specifically designed to handle such a situation and predicting a non-Gaussian shape for the bleached spot as fluorescence recovery proceeds, the two distinct diffusion coefficients of the DNA particles can be retrieved from data analysis. In the first system investigated (a ternary DNA-lipid lamellar complex), the magnitude and anisotropy of the diffusion coefficient of the DNA fragments confined by the lipid bilayers are obtained for the first time. In the second, binary DNA-solvent system, the magnitude of the diffusion coefficient is found to decrease markedly as DNA concentration is increased from isotropic to cholesteric phase. In addition, the diffusion coefficient anisotropy measured within cholesteric domains in the phase coexistence region increases with concentration, and eventually reaches a high value in the cholesteric phase.

Model for the Dynamics of the Cytoskeleton.

Particle tracking of microbeads attached to the cytoskeleton (CSK) reveals an intermittent dynamic. The mean squared displacement (MSD) is subdiffusive for small Δt and superdiffusive for large Δt, which are associated with periods of traps and periods of jumps respectively. The analysis of the displacements has shown a non-Gaussian behavior, what is indicative of an active motion, classifying the cells as a far from equilibrium material. Using Langevin dynamics, we reconstruct the dynamic of the CSK. The model is based on the bundles of actin filaments that link themself with the bead RGD coating, trapping it in an harmonic potential. We consider a one- dimensional motion of a particle, neglecting inertial effects (over-damped Langevin dynamics). The resultant force is decomposed in friction force, elastic force and random force, which is used as white noise representing the effect due to molecular agitation. These description until now shows a static situation where the bead performed a random walk in an elastic potential. In order to modeling the active remodeling of the CSK, we vary the equilibrium position of the potential. Inserting a motion in the well center, we change the equilibrium position linearly with time with constant velocity. The result found exhibits a MSD versus time ’tau’ with three regimes. The first regime is when ‘tau’ < ‘tau IND 0’, where ‘tau IND 0’ is the relaxation time, representing the thermal motion. At this regime the particle can diffuse freely. The second regime is a plateau, ‘tau IND 0’ < ‘tau’ < ‘tau IND 1’, representing the particle caged in the potential. Here, ‘tau IND 1’ is a characteristic time that limit the confinement period. And the third regime, ‘tau’ > ‘tau IND 1’, is when the particles are in the superdiffusive behavior. This is where most of the experiments are performed, under 20 frames per second (FPS), thus there is no experimental evidence that support the first regime. We are currently performing experiments with high frequency, up to 100 FPS, attempting to visualize this diffusive behavior. Beside the first regime, our simple model can reproduce MSD curves similar to what has been found experimentally, which can be helpful to understanding CSK structure and properties.

Probabilistic approaches in civil engineering: generation of random fields and structural identification with genetic algorithms

The inherent stochastic character of most of the physical quantities involved in engineering models has led to an always increasing interest for probabilistic analysis. Many approaches to stochastic analysis have been proposed. However, it is widely acknowledged that the only universal method available to solve accurately any kind of stochastic mechanics problem is Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the key parts in the implementation of this technique is the accurate and efficient generation of samples of the random processes and fields involved in the problem at hand. In the present thesis an original method for the simulation of homogeneous, multi-dimensional, multi-variate, non-Gaussian random fields is proposed. The algorithm has proved to be very accurate in matching both the target spectrum and the marginal probability. The computational efficiency and robustness are very good too, even when dealing with strongly non-Gaussian distributions. What is more, the resulting samples posses all the relevant, welldefined and desired properties of “translation fields”, including crossing rates and distributions of extremes. The topic of the second part of the thesis lies in the field of non-destructive parametric structural identification. Its objective is to evaluate the mechanical characteristics of constituent bars in existing truss structures, using static loads and strain measurements. In the cases of missing data and of damages that interest only a small portion of the bar, Genetic Algorithm have proved to be an effective tool to solve the problem.

EoR in alternative cosmological scenarios

The aim of this Thesis is to investigate the possibility that the observations related to the epoch of reionization can probe not only the evolution of the IGM state, but also the cosmological background in which this process occurs. In fact, the history of the IGM ionization is indeed affected by the evolution of the sources of ionizing photons that, under the assumption of a structure formation paradigm determined by the hierarchic growth of the matter uctuations, results strongly dependent on the characteristics of the background universe. For the purpose of our investigation, we have analysed the reionization history in innovative cosmological frameworks, still in agreement with the recent observational tests related to the SNIa and the CMB probes, comparing our results with the reionization scenario predicted by the commonly used LCDM cosmology. In particular, in this Thesis we have considered two different alternative universes. The first one is a at universe dominated at late epochs by a dynamic dark energy component, characterized by an equation of state evolving in time. The second cosmological framework we have assumed is a LCDM characterized by a primordial overdensity field having a non-Gaussian probability distribution. The reionization scenario have been investigated, in this Thesis, through semi-analytic approaches based on the hierarichic growth of the matter uctuations and on suitable assumptions concerning the ionization and the recombination of the IGM. We make predictions for the evolution and the distribution of the HII regions, and for the global features of reionization, that can be constrained by future observations. Finally, we brie y discuss the possible future prospects of this Thesis work.

Untersuchungen zum nichtstörungstheoretischen Renormierungsverhalten der Quanten-Einstein-Gravitation

Deutsche Version: Zunächst wird eine verallgemeinerte Renormierungsgruppengleichung für die effektiveMittelwertwirkung der EuklidischenQuanten-Einstein-Gravitation konstruiert und dann auf zwei unterschiedliche Trunkierungen, dieEinstein-Hilbert-Trunkierung und die$R^2$-Trunkierung, angewendet. Aus den resultierendenDifferentialgleichungen wird jeweils die Fixpunktstrukturbestimmt. Die Einstein-Hilbert-Trunkierung liefert nebeneinem Gaußschen auch einen nicht-Gaußschen Fixpunkt. Diesernicht-Gaußsche Fixpunkt und auch der Fluß in seinemEinzugsbereich werden mit hoher Genauigkeit durch die$R^2$-Trunkierung reproduziert. Weiterhin erweist sichdie Cutoffschema-Abhängigkeit der analysierten universellenGrößen als äußerst schwach. Diese Ergebnisse deuten daraufhin, daß dieser Fixpunkt wahrscheinlich auch in der exaktenTheorie existiert und die vierdimensionaleQuanten-Einstein-Gravitation somit nichtperturbativ renormierbar sein könnte. Anschließend wird gezeigt, daß der ultraviolette Bereich der$R^2$-Trunkierung und somit auch die Analyse des zugehörigenFixpunkts nicht von den Stabilitätsproblemen betroffen sind,die normalerweise durch den konformen Faktor der Metrikverursacht werden. Dadurch motiviert, wird daraufhin einskalares Spielzeugmodell, das den konformen Sektor einer``$-R+R^2$''-Theorie simuliert, hinsichtlich seinerStabilitätseigenschaften im infraroten (IR) Bereichstudiert. Dabei stellt sich heraus, daß sich die Theorieunter Ausbildung einer nichttrivialen Vakuumstruktur auf dynamische Weise stabilisiert. In der Gravitation könnteneventuell nichtlokale Invarianten des Typs $intd^dx,sqrt{g}R (D^2)^{-1} R$ dafür sorgen, daß der konformeSektor auf ähnliche Weise IR-stabil wird.

L'efficienza degli indici azionari: un'analisi empirica

La studio dell’efficienza di un indice azionario ha accresciuto la propria importanza nell’industria dell’asset management a seguito della diffusione dell’utilizzo di benchmark e investimenti indicizzati. Il presente lavoro valuta il livello di efficienza dei principali indici del mercato azionario statunitense, dell’Area Euro e italiano. Lo studio empirico ricorre a quattro misure di efficienza: il GRS, un test small-sample multivariato fondato sul CAPM; il test large sample di Wald, implementato tramite una simulazione bootstrap; il test GMM, che è stato applicato in una cornice non-gaussiana attraverso una simulazione block bootstrap; la misura di efficienza relativa di Kandel e Stambaugh. I risultati empirici forniscono una prova evidente della superiore efficienza degli indici equiponderati. Questa conclusione è interpretata sulla base della letteratura scientifica esistente, analizzando le diverse cause di ordine teorico ed empirico che sono state proposte.

Quantifying and modeling financial market fluctuations

Die Entstehung eines Marktpreises für einen Vermögenswert kann als Superposition der einzelnen Aktionen der Marktteilnehmer aufgefasst werden, die damit kumulativ Angebot und Nachfrage erzeugen. Dies ist in der statistischen Physik mit der Entstehung makroskopischer Eigenschaften vergleichbar, die von mikroskopischen Wechselwirkungen zwischen den beteiligten Systemkomponenten hervorgerufen werden. Die Verteilung der Preisänderungen an Finanzmärkten unterscheidet sich deutlich von einer Gaußverteilung. Dies führt zu empirischen Besonderheiten des Preisprozesses, zu denen neben dem Skalierungsverhalten nicht-triviale Korrelationsfunktionen und zeitlich gehäufte Volatilität zählen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit liegt der Fokus auf der Analyse von Finanzmarktzeitreihen und den darin enthaltenen Korrelationen. Es wird ein neues Verfahren zur Quantifizierung von Muster-basierten komplexen Korrelationen einer Zeitreihe entwickelt. Mit dieser Methodik werden signifikante Anzeichen dafür gefunden, dass sich typische Verhaltensmuster von Finanzmarktteilnehmern auf kurzen Zeitskalen manifestieren, dass also die Reaktion auf einen gegebenen Preisverlauf nicht rein zufällig ist, sondern vielmehr ähnliche Preisverläufe auch ähnliche Reaktionen hervorrufen. Ausgehend von der Untersuchung der komplexen Korrelationen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen wird die Frage behandelt, welche Eigenschaften sich beim Wechsel von einem positiven Trend zu einem negativen Trend verändern. Eine empirische Quantifizierung mittels Reskalierung liefert das Resultat, dass unabhängig von der betrachteten Zeitskala neue Preisextrema mit einem Anstieg des Transaktionsvolumens und einer Reduktion der Zeitintervalle zwischen Transaktionen einhergehen. Diese Abhängigkeiten weisen Charakteristika auf, die man auch in anderen komplexen Systemen in der Natur und speziell in physikalischen Systemen vorfindet. Über 9 Größenordnungen in der Zeit sind diese Eigenschaften auch unabhängig vom analysierten Markt - Trends, die nur für Sekunden bestehen, zeigen die gleiche Charakteristik wie Trends auf Zeitskalen von Monaten. Dies eröffnet die Möglichkeit, mehr über Finanzmarktblasen und deren Zusammenbrüche zu lernen, da Trends auf kleinen Zeitskalen viel häufiger auftreten. Zusätzlich wird eine Monte Carlo-basierte Simulation des Finanzmarktes analysiert und erweitert, um die empirischen Eigenschaften zu reproduzieren und Einblicke in deren Ursachen zu erhalten, die zum einen in der Finanzmarktmikrostruktur und andererseits in der Risikoaversion der Handelsteilnehmer zu suchen sind. Für die rechenzeitintensiven Verfahren kann mittels Parallelisierung auf einer Graphikkartenarchitektur eine deutliche Rechenzeitreduktion erreicht werden. Um das weite Spektrum an Einsatzbereichen von Graphikkarten zu aufzuzeigen, wird auch ein Standardmodell der statistischen Physik - das Ising-Modell - auf die Graphikkarte mit signifikanten Laufzeitvorteilen portiert. Teilresultate der Arbeit sind publiziert in [PGPS07, PPS08, Pre11, PVPS09b, PVPS09a, PS09, PS10a, SBF+10, BVP10, Pre10, PS10b, PSS10, SBF+11, PB10].

Der Renormierungsgruppen-Fluß der konform-reduzierten Quantengravitation

Wir analysieren die Rolle von "Hintergrundunabhängigkeit" im Zugang der effektiven Mittelwertwirkung zur Quantengravitation. Wenn der nicht-störungstheoretische Renormierungsgruppen-(RG)-Fluß "hintergrundunabhängig" ist, muß die Vergröberung durch eine nicht spezifizierte, variable Metrik definiert werden. Die Forderung nach "Hintergrundunabhängigkeit" in der Quantengravitation führt dazu, daß die funktionale RG-Gleichung von zusätzlichen Feldern abhängt; dadurch unterscheidet sich der RG-Fluß in der Quantengravitation deutlich von dem RG-Fluß einer gewöhnlichen Quantentheorie, deren Moden-Cutoff von einer starren Metrik abhängt. Beispielsweise kann in der "hintergrundunabhängigen" Theorie ein Nicht-Gauß'scher Fixpunkt existieren, obwohl die entsprechende gewöhnliche Quantentheorie keinen solchen entwickelt. Wir untersuchen die Bedeutung dieses universellen, rein kinematischen Effektes, indem wir den RG-Fluß der Quanten-Einstein-Gravitation (QEG) in einem "konform-reduzierten" Zusammenhang untersuchen, in dem wir nur den konformen Faktor der Metrik quantisieren. Alle anderen Freiheitsgrade der Metrik werden vernachlässigt. Die konforme Reduktion der Einstein-Hilbert-Trunkierung zeigt exakt dieselben qualitativen Eigenschaften wie in der vollen Einstein-Hilbert-Trunkierung. Insbesondere besitzt sie einen Nicht-Gauß'schen Fixpunkt, der notwendig ist, damit die Gravitation asymptotisch sicher ist. Ohne diese zusätzlichen Feldabhängigkeiten ist der RG-Fluß dieser Trunkierung der einer gewöhnlichen $phi^4$-Theorie. Die lokale Potentialnäherung für den konformen Faktor verallgemeinert den RG-Fluß in der Quantengravitation auf einen unendlich-dimensionalen Theorienraum. Auch hier finden wir sowohl einen Gauß'schen als auch einen Nicht-Gauß'schen Fixpunkt, was weitere Hinweise dafür liefert, daß die Quantengravitation asymptotisch sicher ist. Das Analogon der Metrik-Invarianten, die proportional zur dritten Potenz der Krümmung ist und die die störungstheoretische Renormierbarkeit zerstört, ist unproblematisch für die asymptotische Sicherheit der konform-reduzierten Theorie. Wir berechnen die Skalenfelder und -imensionen der beiden Fixpunkte explizit und diskutieren mögliche Einflüsse auf die Vorhersagekraft der Theorie. Da der RG-Fluß von der Topologie der zugrundeliegenden Raumzeit abhängt, diskutieren wir sowohl den flachen Raum als auch die Sphäre. Wir lösen die Flußgleichung für das Potential numerisch und erhalten Beispiele für RG-Trajektorien, die innerhalb der Ultraviolett-kritischen Mannigfaltigkeit des Nicht-Gauß'schen Fixpunktes liegen. Die Quantentheorien, die durch einige solcher Trajektorien definiert sind, zeigen einen Phasenübergang von der bekannten (Niederenergie-) Phase der Gravitation mit spontan gebrochener Diffeomorphismus-Invarianz zu einer neuen Phase von ungebrochener Diffeomorphismus-Invarianz. Diese Hochenergie-Phase ist durch einen verschwindenden Metrik-Erwartungswert charakterisiert.

Konstruktion und Analyse einer funktionalen Renormierungsgruppengleichung für Gravitation im Einstein-Cartan-Zugang

Während das Standardmodell der Elementarteilchenphysik eine konsistente, renormierbare Quantenfeldtheorie dreier der vier bekannten Wechselwirkungen darstellt, bleibt die Quantisierung der Gravitation ein bislang ungelöstes Problem. In den letzten Jahren haben sich jedoch Hinweise ergeben, nach denen metrische Gravitation asymptotisch sicher ist. Das bedeutet, daß sich auch für diese Wechselwirkung eine Quantenfeldtheorie konstruieren läßt. Diese ist dann in einem verallgemeinerten Sinne renormierbar, der nicht mehr explizit Bezug auf die Störungstheorie nimmt. Zudem sagt dieser Zugang, der auf der Wilsonschen Renormierungsgruppe beruht, die korrekte mikroskopische Wirkung der Theorie voraus. Klassisch ist metrische Gravitation auf dem Niveau der Vakuumfeldgleichungen äquivalent zur Einstein-Cartan-Theorie, die das Vielbein und den Spinzusammenhang als fundamentale Variablen verwendet. Diese Theorie besitzt allerdings mehr Freiheitsgrade, eine größere Eichgruppe, und die zugrundeliegende Wirkung ist von erster Ordnung. Alle diese Eigenschaften erschweren eine zur metrischen Gravitation analoge Behandlung.rnrnIm Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird eine dreidimensionale Trunkierung von der Art einer verallgemeinerten Hilbert-Palatini-Wirkung untersucht, die neben dem Laufen der Newton-Konstante und der kosmologischen Konstante auch die Renormierung des Immirzi-Parameters erfaßt. Trotz der angedeuteten Schwierigkeiten war es möglich, das Spektrum des freien Hilbert-Palatini-Propagators analytisch zu berechnen. Auf dessen Grundlage wird eine Flußgleichung vom Propertime-Typ konstruiert. Zudem werden geeignete Eichbedingungen gewählt und detailliert analysiert. Dabei macht die Struktur der Eichgruppe eine Kovariantisierung der Eichtransformationen erforderlich. Der resultierende Fluß wird für verschiedene Regularisierungsschemata und Eichparameter untersucht. Dies liefert auch im Einstein-Cartan-Zugang berzeugende Hinweise auf asymptotische Sicherheit und damit auf die mögliche Existenz einer mathematisch konsistenten und prädiktiven fundamentalen Quantentheorie der Gravitation. Insbesondere findet man ein Paar nicht-Gaußscher Fixpunkte, das Anti-Screening aufweist. An diesen sind die Newton-Konstante und die kosmologische Konstante jeweils relevante Kopplungen, wohingegen der Immirzi-Parameter an einem Fixpunkt irrelevant und an dem anderen relevant ist. Zudem ist die Beta-Funktion des Immirzi-Parameters von bemerkenswert einfacher Form. Die Resultate sind robust gegenüber Variationen des Regularisierungsschemas. Allerdings sollten zukünftige Untersuchungen die bestehenden Eichabhängigkeiten reduzieren.

A novel functional renormalization group framework for gauge theories and gravity

In this thesis we develop further the functional renormalization group (RG) approach to quantum field theory (QFT) based on the effective average action (EAA) and on the exact flow equation that it satisfies. The EAA is a generalization of the standard effective action that interpolates smoothly between the bare action for krightarrowinfty and the standard effective action rnfor krightarrow0. In this way, the problem of performing the functional integral is converted into the problem of integrating the exact flow of the EAA from the UV to the IR. The EAA formalism deals naturally with several different aspects of a QFT. One aspect is related to the discovery of non-Gaussian fixed points of the RG flow that can be used to construct continuum limits. In particular, the EAA framework is a useful setting to search for Asymptotically Safe theories, i.e. theories valid up to arbitrarily high energies. A second aspect in which the EAA reveals its usefulness are non-perturbative calculations. In fact, the exact flow that it satisfies is a valuable starting point for devising new approximation schemes. In the first part of this thesis we review and extend the formalism, in particular we derive the exact RG flow equation for the EAA and the related hierarchy of coupled flow equations for the proper-vertices. We show how standard perturbation theory emerges as a particular way to iteratively solve the flow equation, if the starting point is the bare action. Next, we explore both technical and conceptual issues by means of three different applications of the formalism, to QED, to general non-linear sigma models (NLsigmaM) and to matter fields on curved spacetimes. In the main part of this thesis we construct the EAA for non-abelian gauge theories and for quantum Einstein gravity (QEG), using the background field method to implement the coarse-graining procedure in a gauge invariant way. We propose a new truncation scheme where the EAA is expanded in powers of the curvature or field strength. Crucial to the practical use of this expansion is the development of new techniques to manage functional traces such as the algorithm proposed in this thesis. This allows to project the flow of all terms in the EAA which are analytic in the fields. As an application we show how the low energy effective action for quantum gravity emerges as the result of integrating the RG flow. In any treatment of theories with local symmetries that introduces a reference scale, the question of preserving gauge invariance along the flow emerges as predominant. In the EAA framework this problem is dealt with the use of the background field formalism. This comes at the cost of enlarging the theory space where the EAA lives to the space of functionals of both fluctuation and background fields. In this thesis, we study how the identities dictated by the symmetries are modified by the introduction of the cutoff and we study so called bimetric truncations of the EAA that contain both fluctuation and background couplings. In particular, we confirm the existence of a non-Gaussian fixed point for QEG, that is at the heart of the Asymptotic Safety scenario in quantum gravity; in the enlarged bimetric theory space where the running of the cosmological constant and of Newton's constant is influenced by fluctuation couplings.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Quantum Einstein gravity - advancements of heat kernel-based renormalization group studies

The asymptotic safety scenario allows to define a consistent theory of quantized gravity within the framework of quantum field theory. The central conjecture of this scenario is the existence of a non-Gaussian fixed point of the theory's renormalization group flow, that allows to formulate renormalization conditions that render the theory fully predictive. Investigations of this possibility use an exact functional renormalization group equation as a primary non-perturbative tool. This equation implements Wilsonian renormalization group transformations, and is demonstrated to represent a reformulation of the functional integral approach to quantum field theory.rnAs its main result, this thesis develops an algebraic algorithm which allows to systematically construct the renormalization group flow of gauge theories as well as gravity in arbitrary expansion schemes. In particular, it uses off-diagonal heat kernel techniques to efficiently handle the non-minimal differential operators which appear due to gauge symmetries. The central virtue of the algorithm is that no additional simplifications need to be employed, opening the possibility for more systematic investigations of the emergence of non-perturbative phenomena. As a by-product several novel results on the heat kernel expansion of the Laplace operator acting on general gauge bundles are obtained.rnThe constructed algorithm is used to re-derive the renormalization group flow of gravity in the Einstein-Hilbert truncation, showing the manifest background independence of the results. The well-studied Einstein-Hilbert case is further advanced by taking the effect of a running ghost field renormalization on the gravitational coupling constants into account. A detailed numerical analysis reveals a further stabilization of the found non-Gaussian fixed point.rnFinally, the proposed algorithm is applied to the case of higher derivative gravity including all curvature squared interactions. This establishes an improvement of existing computations, taking the independent running of the Euler topological term into account. Known perturbative results are reproduced in this case from the renormalization group equation, identifying however a unique non-Gaussian fixed point.rn

Investigations on asymptotic safety of metric, tetrad and Einstein-Cartan gravity

Among the different approaches for a construction of a fundamental quantum theory of gravity the Asymptotic Safety scenario conjectures that quantum gravity can be defined within the framework of conventional quantum field theory, but only non-perturbatively. In this case its high energy behavior is controlled by a non-Gaussian fixed point of the renormalization group flow, such that its infinite cutoff limit can be taken in a well defined way. A theory of this kind is referred to as non-perturbatively renormalizable. In the last decade a considerable amount of evidence has been collected that in four dimensional metric gravity such a fixed point, suitable for the Asymptotic Safety construction, indeed exists. This thesis extends the Asymptotic Safety program of quantum gravity by three independent studies that differ in the fundamental field variables the investigated quantum theory is based on, but all exhibit a gauge group of equivalent semi-direct product structure. It allows for the first time for a direct comparison of three asymptotically safe theories of gravity constructed from different field variables. The first study investigates metric gravity coupled to SU(N) Yang-Mills theory. In particular the gravitational effects to the running of the gauge coupling are analyzed and its implications for QED and the Standard Model are discussed. The second analysis amounts to the first investigation on an asymptotically safe theory of gravity in a pure tetrad formulation. Its renormalization group flow is compared to the corresponding approximation of the metric theory and the influence of its enlarged gauge group on the UV behavior of the theory is analyzed. The third study explores Asymptotic Safety of gravity in the Einstein-Cartan setting. Here, besides the tetrad, the spin connection is considered a second fundamental field. The larger number of independent field components and the enlarged gauge group render any RG analysis of this system much more difficult than the analog metric analysis. In order to reduce the complexity of this task a novel functional renormalization group equation is proposed, that allows for an evaluation of the flow in a purely algebraic manner. As a first example of its suitability it is applied to a three dimensional truncation of the form of the Holst action, with the Newton constant, the cosmological constant and the Immirzi parameter as its running couplings. A detailed comparison of the resulting renormalization group flow to a previous study of the same system demonstrates the reliability of the new equation and suggests its use for future studies of extended truncations in this framework.