A parallel future for Ocean research?

[EN] Today, science is difficult to pursue because funding is so tenuous. In such a financial climate, researchers need to consider parallel alternatives to ensure that scientific research can continue. Based on this thinking, we created BIOCEANSolutions, a company born of a research group. A great variety of environmental regulations and standards have emerged over recent years with the purpose of protecting natural ecosystems. These have enabled us to link our research to the market of environmental management. Marine activities can alter environmental conditions, resulting in changes in physiological states, species diversity, abundance, and biomass in the local biological communities. In this way, we can apply our knowledge, to plankton ecophysiology and biochemical oceanography. We measure enzyme activities as bio-indicators of energy metabolism and other physiological rates and biologic-oceanographic processes in marine organisms. This information provides insight into the health of marine communities, the stress levels of individual organisms, and potential anomalies that may be affecting them. In the process of verifying standards and complying with regulations, we can apply our analytic capability and knowledge. The main analyses that we offer are: (1) the activity of the electron transport system (ETS) or potential respiration (Φ), (2) the physiological measurement of respiration (oxygen consumption), (3) the activity of Isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH), (4) the respiratory CO2 production, and (5) the activity of Glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) and (6) the physiological measurement of ammonium excretion. In addition, our experience in a productive research group allows us to pursue and develop technical-experimental activities such as marine and freshwater aquaculture, oceanographic field sampling, as well as providing guidance, counseling, and academic services. In summary, this new company will permit us to create a symbiosis between public and private sectors that serve clients and will allow us to grow and expand as a research team.

Risk assessment for invasive exotic plants using multi-criteria risk models

Invasive exotic plants have altered natural ecosystems across much of North America. In the Midwest, the presence of invasive plants is increasing rapidly, causing changes in ecosystem patterns and processes. Early detection has become a key component in invasive plant management and in the detection of ecosystem change. Risk assessment through predictive modeling has been a useful resource for monitoring and assisting with treatment decisions for invasive plants. Predictive models were developed to assist with early detection of ten target invasive plants in the Great Lakes Network of the National Park Service and for garlic mustard throughout the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. These multi-criteria risk models utilize geographic information system (GIS) data to predict the areas at highest risk for three phases of invasion: introduction, establishment, and spread. An accuracy assessment of the models for the ten target plants in the Great Lakes Network showed an average overall accuracy of 86.3%. The model developed for garlic mustard in the Upper Peninsula resulted in an accuracy of 99.0%. Used as one of many resources, the risk maps created from the model outputs will assist with the detection of ecosystem change, the monitoring of plant invasions, and the management of invasive plants through prioritized control efforts.

Dispersal and seed limitation affect diversity and productivity of montane grasslands

So far, seed limitation as a local process, and dispersal limitation as a regional process have been largely neglected in biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research. However, these processes can influence both local plant species diversity and ecosystem processes, such as biomass production. We added seeds of 60 species from the regional species pool to grassland communities at 20 montane grassland sites in Germany. In these sites, plant species diversity ranged from 10 to 34 species m(-2) and, before manipulation, diversity was not related to aboveground biomass, which ranged from 108 to 687 g m(-2). One year after seed addition, local plant species richness had increased on average by six species m(-2) (29%) compared with control plots, and this increase was highest in grasslands with intermediate productivity. The increased diversity after adding seeds was associated with an average increase of aboveground biomass of 36 g m(-2) (14.8%) compared with control plots. Thus, our results demonstrate that a positive relationship between changes in species richness and productivity, as previously reported from experimental plant communities, also holds for natural grassland ecosystems. Our results show that local plant communities are dispersal limited and a hump-shaped model appears to be the limiting outline of the natural diversity-productivity relationship. Hence, the effects of dispersal on local diversity can substantially affect the functioning of natural ecosystems.

Human-environment interactions in pre-Columbian Amazonia: The case of the Llanos de Moxos, Bolivia

The reconstruction of past environmental and historical events is much needed in Amazonia, a region at the centre of heated debates about the extent of pre-Columbian human disturbance of the natural ecosystems. Important aspects of this debate are to establish to what extent the rise of social complexity was influenced by the local geo-ecology; and what productive strategies were adopted in order to sustain these societies. The Llanos de Moxos (LM), in the Bolivian Amazon, is a vast floodplain made up of a variety of geo-ecological sub regions that host many different types of pre-Columbian earthworks. Therefore, it offers an excellent opportunity to compare different kinds of archaeological landscapes and their relationship to different pre-Columbian cultures and environmental settings. This paper analyses the links between pre-Columbian earthworks and the local geo-ecology in two regions of the LM: 1) the platform field region (PFR) in the north of Santa Ana de Yacuma, where the highest concentration of raised fields has been documented, and 2) the monumental mounds region (MMR) south and east of Trinidad, where >100 pre-Columbian monumental mounds are found. The study draws from remote sensing and GIS analysis, field work in the Bolivian lowlands, and laboratory analysis. Differences in the way people transformed the landscape in the PFR and MMR seem to respond to differences in the local geo-ecology of the two sites. The results also suggest that environmental conditions exerted an important, though not exclusive, control over the levels of social complexity that were reached in different areas of the LM.

Are land sparing and land sharing real alternatives for European agricultural landscapes?

There is a lively debate on whether biodiversity conservation and agricultural production could be better reconciled by land sparing (strictly separating production fields and conservation areas) or by land sharing (combining both, agricultural production and biodiversity conservation on the same land). The debate originates from tropical countries, where agricultural land use continues to increase at the expense of natural ecosystems. But is it also relevant for Europe, where agriculture is withdrawing from marginal regions whilst farming of fertile lands continues to be intensified? Based on recent research on farmland biodiversity we conclude that the land sharing – land sparing dichotomy is too simplistic for Europe. Instead we differentiate between productive and marginal farmland. On productive farmland, semi-natural habitats are required to yield ecosystem services relevant for agriculture, to promote endangered farmland species which society wants to conserve even in intensively farmed regions, and to allow migration of non-farmland species through the agricultural matrix. On marginal farmland, high-nature value farming is a traditional way of land sharing, yielding high quality agricultural products and conserving specialized species. To conserve highly disturbance-sensitive species, there is a need for nature reserves. In conclusion, land sparing is not a viable olution for Europe in both productive and marginal farmland but because of different reasons in each type of farmland.

Why evolutionary biologists should get seriously involved in ecological monitoring and applied biodiversity assessment programs

While ecological monitoring and biodiversity assessment programs are widely implemented and relatively well developed to survey and monitor the structure and dynamics of populations and communities in many ecosystems, quantitative assessment and monitoring of genetic and phenotypic diversity that is important to understand evolutionary dynamics is only rarely integrated. As a consequence, monitoring programs often fail to detect changes in these key components of biodiversity until after major loss of diversity has occurred. The extensive efforts in ecological monitoring have generated large data sets of unique value to macro-scale and long-term ecological research, but the insights gained from such data sets could be multiplied by the inclusion of evolutionary biological approaches. We argue that the lack of process-based evolutionary thinking in ecological monitoring means a significant loss of opportunity for research and conservation. Assessment of genetic and phenotypic variation within and between species needs to be fully integrated to safeguard biodiversity and the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in natural ecosystems. We illustrate our case with examples from fishes and conclude with examples of ongoing monitoring programs and provide suggestions on how to improve future quantitative diversity surveys.

Jack-of-all-trades effects drive biodiversity–ecosystem multifunctionality relationships in European forests

There is considerable evidence that biodiversity promotes multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality), thus ensuring the delivery of ecosystem services important for human well-being. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are poorly understood, especially in natural ecosystems. We develop a novel approach to partition biodiversity effects on multifunctionality into three mechanisms and apply this to European forest data. We show that throughout Europe, tree diversity is positively related with multifunctionality when moderate levels of functioning are required, but negatively when very high function levels are desired. For two well-known mechanisms, ‘complementarity’ and ‘selection’, we detect only minor effects on multifunctionality. Instead a third, so far overlooked mechanism, the ‘jack-of-all-trades’ effect, caused by the averaging of individual species effects on function, drives observed patterns. Simulations demonstrate that jack-of-all-trades effects occur whenever species effects on different functions are not perfectly correlated, meaning they may contribute to diversity–multifunctionality relationships in many of the world’s ecosystems.

A comprehensive assessment of environmental ultraviolet radiation induced DNA damage in marine microorganisms

There is evidence that ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is increasing over certain locations on the Earth's surface. Of primary concern is the annual pattern of ozone depletion over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Reduction of ozone concentration selectively limits absorption of solar UV-B (290–320 nm), resulting in higher irradiance at the Earth's surface. The effects of ozone depletion on the human population and natural ecosystems, particularly the marine environment, are a matter of considerable concern. Indeed, marine plankton may serve as sensitive indicators of ozone depletion and UV-B fluctuations. Direct biological effects of UVR result from absorption of UV-B by DNA. Once absorbed, energy is dissipated by a variety of pathways, including covalent chemical reactions leading to the formation of photoproducts. The major types of photoproduct formed are cyclobutyl pyrimidine dimer (CPD) and pyrimidine(6-4)pyrimidone dimer [(6-4)PD]. Marine plankton repair these photoproducts using light-dependent photoenzymatic repair or nucleotide excision repair. The studies here show that fluctuations in CPD concentrations in the marine environment at Palmer Station, Antarctica correlate well with ozone concentration and UV-B irradiance at the Earth's surface. A comparison of photoproduct levels in marine plankton and DNA dosimeters show that bacterioplankton display higher resistance to solar UVR than phytoplankton in an ozone depleted environment. DNA damage in marine microorganisms was investigated during two separate latitudinal transects which covered a total range of 140°. We observed the same pattern of change in DNA damage levels in dosimeters and marine plankton as measured using two distinct quantitative techniques. Results from the transects show that differences in photosensitivity exist in marine plankton collected under varying UVR environments. Laboratory studies of Antarctic bacterial isolates confirm that marine bacterioplankton possess differences in survival, DNA damage induction, and repair following exposure to UVR. Results from DNA damage measurements during ozone season, along a latitudinal gradient, and in marine bacterial isolates suggest that changes in environmental UVR correlate with changes in UV-B induced DNA damage in marine microorganisms. Differences in the ability to tolerate UVR stress under different environmental conditions may determine the composition of the microbial communities inhabiting those environments. ^

Comments and conclusions on the I International Seminary “Interdiscipline in Territorial Management "

El objetivo principal del I Seminario Internacional “ La Interdisciplina en el Ordenamiento Territorial, fue debatir sobre el aporte de las diversas disciplinas que confluyen en el Ordenamiento Territorial. Las ponencias presentadas fueron de un alto nivel científico y a partir de los casos analizados se demuestra que en la realidad coexisten espacios fragmentados social y económicamente, ya que se verifica la existencia de espacios globalizados con fuertes inversiones frente a otros que quedan marginados. Esta situación se manifiesta a través de la presencia de nuevos procesos de expansión y suburbanización, espacios rurales que se desvalorizan y se abandonan, ecosistemas naturales que deben ser protegidos para evitar un mayor deterioro medioambiental. Entre las conclusiones de los trabajos presentados se destacan: • La necesidad del mejoramiento de la capacidad de gestión a través de propuestas de nuevas metodológicas de trabajo, • la búsqueda de soluciones a las grandes disparidades socioeconómicas y al progresivo deterioro ambiental a partir del consenso de los agentes que intervienen, • la formulación de nuevas normativas acordes a las exigencias que impone la economía de mercado, entre otros.

Variación temporal y espacial de parches, corredores y matriz en un humedal ("mallín") del centro-oeste de la provincia de Neuquén

Los procesos naturales, como las actividades humanas, cambian los paisajes. Esta realidad no es ajena a los humedales (mallines) en Patagonia. Los mallines son importantes ecosistemas naturales que sirven como recurso forrajero para la ganadería extensiva. Los mismos representan el 4 de la superficie patagónica. Los períodos húmedos y secos modifican la dinámica hidrológica del mallín. Esto repercute en la evolución de los parches, corredores y matriz, que se agrava con la actividad antrópica. En una secuencia temporal se puede apreciar la fragmentación del hábitat: en la variación y tamaño del número de parches, su forma, conectividad y aislamiento, que entre otros factores inciden sobre numerosos procesos ecológicos. El conocimiento de la dinámica temporal y espacial de los parches, corredores y matriz entre un período húmedo y uno seco en un humedal permite la planificación del uso del recurso vegetación, ya que los patrones espaciales controlan fuertemente sus movimientos, flujos y cambios.

Variación temporal y espacial de parches, corredores y matriz en un humedal ("mallín") del centro-oeste de la provincia de Neuquén

Los procesos naturales, como las actividades humanas, cambian los paisajes. Esta realidad no es ajena a los humedales (mallines) en Patagonia. Los mallines son importantes ecosistemas naturales que sirven como recurso forrajero para la ganadería extensiva. Los mismos representan el 4 de la superficie patagónica. Los períodos húmedos y secos modifican la dinámica hidrológica del mallín. Esto repercute en la evolución de los parches, corredores y matriz, que se agrava con la actividad antrópica. En una secuencia temporal se puede apreciar la fragmentación del hábitat: en la variación y tamaño del número de parches, su forma, conectividad y aislamiento, que entre otros factores inciden sobre numerosos procesos ecológicos. El conocimiento de la dinámica temporal y espacial de los parches, corredores y matriz entre un período húmedo y uno seco en un humedal permite la planificación del uso del recurso vegetación, ya que los patrones espaciales controlan fuertemente sus movimientos, flujos y cambios.

Variación temporal y espacial de parches, corredores y matriz en un humedal ("mallín") del centro-oeste de la provincia de Neuquén

Los procesos naturales, como las actividades humanas, cambian los paisajes. Esta realidad no es ajena a los humedales (mallines) en Patagonia. Los mallines son importantes ecosistemas naturales que sirven como recurso forrajero para la ganadería extensiva. Los mismos representan el 4 de la superficie patagónica. Los períodos húmedos y secos modifican la dinámica hidrológica del mallín. Esto repercute en la evolución de los parches, corredores y matriz, que se agrava con la actividad antrópica. En una secuencia temporal se puede apreciar la fragmentación del hábitat: en la variación y tamaño del número de parches, su forma, conectividad y aislamiento, que entre otros factores inciden sobre numerosos procesos ecológicos. El conocimiento de la dinámica temporal y espacial de los parches, corredores y matriz entre un período húmedo y uno seco en un humedal permite la planificación del uso del recurso vegetación, ya que los patrones espaciales controlan fuertemente sus movimientos, flujos y cambios.

Initial vegetation, and spore density, diversity and evenness of different arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi morphotaxa 29,36 and 39 months after experimental vegetation removal, central Argentina

1. Dominant plant functional types (PFTs) are expected to be primary determinants of communities of other above- and below-ground organisms. Here, we report the effects of the experimental removal of different PFTs on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) communities in a shrubland ecosystem in central Argentina. 2. On the basis of the biomass-ratio hypothesis and plant resource use strategy theory, we expected the effect of removal of PFTs on AMF colonization and spores to be proportional to the biomass removed and to be stronger when more conservative PFTs were removed. The treatments applied were: undisturbed control (no plant removed), disturbed control (mechanical disturbance), no shrub (removal of deciduous shrubs), no perennial forb (removal of perennial forbs), no graminoid (removal of graminoids) and no annual forb (removal of annual forbs). AMF colonization was assessed after 5,17 and 29 months. Total density of AMF spores, richness and evenness of morpho-taxa, and AMF functional groups were quantified after 5,17,29,36 and 39 months. 3. Five months after the initial removal we found a significant reduction in total AMF colonization in all plots subjected to PFT removals and in the disturbed control plots, as compared with the undisturbed controls. This effect disappeared afterwards and no subsequent effect on total colonization and colonization by arbuscules was observed. In contrast, a significant increase in colonization by vesicles was observed in months 17 and 29, mainly in no graminoid plots. In general, treatments did not significantly affect AMF spores in the soil. On the other hand, no annual forb promoted transient (12-18 months) higher ammonia availability, and no shrub promoted lower nitrate availability in the longer term (24-28 months). 4. Synthesis. Our experiment, the first to investigate the effects of the removal of different PFTs on AMF communities in natural ecosystems, indicates that AMF communities are resilient to changes in the soil and in the functional composition of vegetation. Furthermore, it does not provide consistent evidence in support of the biomass-ratio hypothesis or differential trait-based direct or indirect effects of different PFTs on AMF in this particular system.

Coevolución virus-planta: impacto de las infecciones virales en poblaciones silvestres de Chiltepín (capsicum annuum var. Aviculare (dierbach) d’arcy & eshbaugh) en México.

El impacto negativo que tienen los virus en las plantas hace que estos puedan ejercer un papel ecológico como moduladores de la dinámica espacio-temporal de las poblaciones de sus huéspedes. Entender cuáles son los mecanismos genéticos y los factores ambientales que determinan tanto la epidemiología como la estructura genética de las poblaciones de virus puede resultar de gran ayuda para la comprensión del papel ecológico de las infecciones virales. Sin embargo, existen pocos trabajos experimentales que hayan abordado esta cuestión. En esta tesis, se analiza el efecto de la heterogeneidad del paisaje sobre la incidencia de los virus y la estructura genética de sus poblaciones. Asimismo, se explora como dichos factores ambientales influyen en la importancia relativa que los principales mecanismos de generación de variabilidad genética (mutación, recombinación y migración) tienen en la evolución de los virus. Para ello se ha usado como sistema los begomovirus que infectan poblaciones de chiltepín (Capsicum annuum var. aviculare (Dierbach) D´Arcy & Eshbaugh) en México. Se analizó la incidencia de diferentes virus en poblaciones de chiltepín distribuidas a lo largo de seis provincias biogeográficas, representando el área de distribución de la especie en México, y localizadas en hábitats con diferente grado de intervención humana: poblaciones sin intervención humana (silvestres); poblaciones toleradas (lindes y pastizales), y poblaciones manejadas por el hombre (monocultivos y huertos familiares). Entre los virus analizados, los begomovirus mostraron la mayor incidencia, detectándose en todas las poblaciones y años de muestreo. Las únicas dos especies de begomovirus que se encontraron infectando al chiltepín fueron: el virus del mosaico dorado del chile (Pepper golden mosaic virus, PepGMV) y el virus huasteco del amarilleo de venas del chile (Pepper huasteco yellow vein virus, PHYVV). Por ello, todos los análisis realizados en esta tesis se centran en estas dos especies de virus. La incidencia de PepGMV y PHYVV, tanto en infecciones simples como mixtas, aumento cuanto mayor fue el nivel de intervención humana en las poblaciones de chiltepín, lo que a su vez se asoció con una menor biodiversidad y una mayor densidad de plantas. Además, la incidencia de infecciones mixtas, altamente relacionada con la presencia de síntomas, fue también mayor en las poblaciones cultivadas. La incidencia de estos dos virus también varió en función de la población de chiltepín y de la provincia biogeográfica. Por tanto, estos resultados apoyan una de las hipótesis XVI clásicas de la Patología Vegetal según la cual la simplificación de los ecosistemas naturales debida a la intervención humana conduce a un mayor riesgo de enfermedad de las plantas, e ilustran sobre la importancia de la heterogeneidad del paisaje a diferentes escalas en la determinación de patrones epidemiológicos. La heterogeneidad del paisaje no solo afectó a la epidemiología de PepGMV y PHYVV, sino también a la estructura genética de sus poblaciones. En ambos virus, el nivel de diferenciación genética mayor fue la población, probablemente asociado a la capacidad de migración de su vector Bemisia tabaci; y en segundo lugar la provincia biogeográfica, lo que podría estar relacionado con el papel del ser humano como agente dispersor de PepGMV y PHYVV. La estima de las tasas de sustitución nucleotídica de las poblaciones de PepGMV y PHYVV mostró una rápida dinámica evolutiva. Los árboles filogenéticos de ambos virus presentaron una topología en estrella, lo que sugiere una expansión reciente en las poblaciones de chiltepín. La reconstrucción de los patrones de migración de ambos virus indicó que ésta expansión parece haberse producido desde la zona central de México siguiendo un patrón radial, y en los últimos 30 años. Es importante tener en cuenta que el patrón espacial de la diversidad genética de las poblaciones de PepGMV y PHYVV es similar al descrito previamente para el chiltepín lo que podría dar lugar a la congruencia de las genealogías del huésped y la de los virus. Dicha congruencia se encontró cuando se tuvieron en cuenta únicamente las poblaciones de hábitats silvestres y tolerados, lo que probablemente se debe a una codivergencia en el espacio pero no en el tiempo, dado que la evolución de virus y huésped han ocurrido a escalas temporales muy diferentes. Finalmente, el análisis de la frecuencia de recombinación en PepGMV y PHYVV indicó que esta juega un papel importante en la evolución de ambos virus, dependiendo su importancia del nivel de intervención humana de la población de chiltepín. Este factor afectó también a la intensidad de la selección a la que se ven sometidos los genomas de PepGMV y PHYVV. Los resultados de esta tesis ponen de manifiesto la importancia que la reducción de la biodiversidad asociada al nivel de intervención humana de las poblaciones de plantas y la heterogeneidad del paisaje tiene en la emergencia de nuevas enfermedades virales. Por tanto, es necesario considerar estos factores ambientales a la hora de comprender la epidemiologia y la evolución de los virus de plantas.XVII SUMMARY Plant viruses play a key role as modulators of the spatio-temporal dynamics of their host populations, due to their negative impact in plant fitness. Knowledge on the genetic and environmental factors that determine the epidemiology and the genetic structure of virus populations may help to understand the ecological role of viral infections. However, few experimental works have addressed this issue. This thesis analyses the effect of landscape heterogeneity in the prevalence of viruses and the genetic structure of their populations. Also, how these environmental factors influence the relative importance of the main mechanisms for generating genetic variability (mutation, recombination and migration) during virus evolution is explored. To do so, the begomoviruses infecting chiltepin (Capsicum annuum var. aviculare (Dierbach) D'Arcy & Eshbaugh) populations in Mexico were used. Incidence of different viruses in chiltepin populations of six biogeographical provinces representing the species distribution in Mexico was determined. Populations belonged to different habitats according to the level of human management: populations with no human intervention (Wild); populations naturally dispersed and tolerated in managed habitats (let-standing), and human managed populations (cultivated). Among the analyzed viruses, the begomoviruses showed the highest prevalence, being detected in all populations and sampling years. Only two begomovirus species infected chiltepin: Pepper golden mosaic virus, PepGMV and Pepper huasteco yellow vein virus, PHYVV. Therefore, all the analyses presented in this thesis are focused in these two viruses. The prevalence of PepGMV and PHYVV, in single and mixed infections, increased with higher levels of human management of the host population, which was associated with decreased biodiversity and increased plant density. Furthermore, cultivated populations showed higher prevalence of mixed infections and symptomatic plants. The prevalence of the two viruses also varied depending on the chiltepin population and on the biogeographical province. Therefore, these results support a classical hypothesis of Plant Pathology stating that simplification of natural ecosystems due to human management leads to an increased disease risk, and illustrate on the importance of landscape heterogeneity in determining epidemiological patterns. Landscape heterogeneity not only affected the epidemiology of PepGMV and PHYVV, but also the genetic structure of their populations. Both viruses had the highest level of genetic differentiation at the population scale, probably associated with the XVIII migration patterns of its vector Bemisia tabaci, and a second level at the biogeographical province scale, which could be related to the role of humans as dispersal agents of PepGMV and PHYVV. The estimates of nucleotide substitution rates of the virus populations indicated rapid evolutionary dynamics. Accordingly, phylogenetic trees of both viruses showed a star topology, suggesting a recent diversification in the chiltepin populations. Reconstruction of PepGMV and PHYVV migration patterns indicated that they expanded from central Mexico following a radial pattern during the last 30 years. Importantly, the spatial genetic structures of the virus populations were similar to that described previously for the chiltepin, which may result in the congruence of the host and virus genealogies. Such congruence was found only in wild and let-standing populations. This is probably due to a co-divergence in space but not in time, given the different evolutionary time scales of the host and virus populations. Finally, the frequency of recombination detected in the PepGMV and PHYVV populations indicated that this mechanism plays an important role in the evolution of both viruses at the intra-specific scale. The level of human management had a minor effect on the frequency of recombination, but influenced the strength of negative selective pressures in the viral genomes. The results of this thesis highlight the importance of decreased biodiversity in plant populations associated with the level of human management and of landscape heterogeneity on the emergence of new viral diseases. Therefore it is necessary to consider these environmental factors in order to fully understand the epidemiology and evolution of plant viruses.

Las nuevas medidas agroenergéticas mexicanas: un modelo microeconométrico para la evaluación de su impacto sobre los ecosistemas naturales en los estados de Hidalgo, Querétaro y Tamaulipas (México)

La ley para la Promoción y Desarrollo de Biocombustibles aprobada en México en 2007 permite la producción de bioetanol y biodiesel. Esta producción puede entrar en conflicto con la producción de alimentos y con los ecosistemas naturales y en esta tesis se desarrolla un modelo microeconométrico que puede servir de base para anticiparse a esos conflictos y para diseñar medidas de política agraria orientadas a potenciar la compatibilidad de la producción de biocombustibles con la de alimentos y con la conservación de los ecosistemas naturales. A partir de una muestra de explotaciones de tres Estados de México – Hidalgo, Querétaro y Tamaulipas- y de un modelo logit multinomial mixto, se estima la elasticidad de la superficie destinada a cultivos alimentarios respecto a cambios en los márgenes económicos de los cultivos agroenergéticos. Esa elasticidad resulta ser significativa. Mostramos que su estimación es útil para anticipar cambios en la superficie destinada a los cultivos alimentarios y a los forestales. Se evalúa el impacto de varios escenarios relativos a los márgenes brutos de los cultivos sobre las decisiones de los agricultores y se muestra la utilidad del modelo para detectar tendencias de cambio a largo plazo en la alternativa de cultivos, incluyendo los forestales. ABSTRACT The Law for the Promotion and Development of Biofuels in Mexico adopted in 2007 allows for the production of bioethanol and biodiesel. This production may conflict with food production and natural ecosystems and this thesis develops a microeconometric model that can serve as a basis to anticipate such conflicts and to implement agricultural policy measures designed to enhance the compatibility of biofuels with production food and natural ecosystems conservation. We estimate the elasticity of the area devoted to food crops with respect to changes in economic margins of energy crops, using a sample of farms in three states of Mexico - Hidalgo, Queretaro and Tamaulipas - , and a multinomial mixed logit model. We found that this elasticity is significant. And we show how it can be useful to anticipate changes in area under food crops and forests. The impact of various scenarios about gross margins on farmers' decisions is assessed and it is shown the usefulness of the model to detect trends of long-term change in the crops area, including forests.