Benefits and risks of large hydrostatic recesses in hydroelectric turbine thrust bearings

Operators of hydroelectric power stations sometimes call upon engineers to modify existing hydroelectric turbines, usually several decades old, for improved maintainability and reliability. One common modification is the hybridisation of plain thrust pads to allow hydrostatic operation to reduce the risk of bearing wipe at low speed (virtually all new installations benefit from this feature). A modification such as this is not a difficult undertaking; however, there are numerous factors that need to be considered in order to maximize bearing performance. One factor that stands out above the others is whether the thrust bearing should be designed to lift the turbine immediately from the standing condition, which presents an interesting challenge: the recess has to have a sufficiently large area in order for the supply pressure to be able to overcome the dead weight of the turbine. If the combination of groove area and pressure is insufficient, then lifting is neither immediate nor guaranteed. This need not be a significant problem, as the bearings have exhibited adequate performance even in the absence of a hydrostatic lubricant supply. A case study is presented whereby relatively large hydrostatic recesses are added to the pads of thrust bearing. It is demonstrated with the aid of simple numerical modelling that the impact of the recess relative to the original pad is small under normal operating conditions. Most surprising, however, is that significant reductions in average oil film temperature and power dissipation are predicted.

Bank audit fees and asset securitization risks

Using the lens of audit pricing, we provide insights into auditors’ behaviors in relation to the risk of asset securitizations to bank holding companies in a period encompassing the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the introduction of the accounting standards FAS 166 and FAS 167. Using US bank holding company data from 2003 to 2011, we find significant and positive associations between asset securitization risks and audit fees. We find that auditors appear to focus on different aspects of asset securitization risks after the onset of the GFC, and increase their attention to the systemic risks facing bank holding companies in general. After the implementation of FAS 166 and FAS 167, which removed the discretion to treat asset securitizations as sales and required the consolidation of the accounts of special purpose entities, asset securitization risks no longer have a significant effect on audit fees.

Parent's socio-economic status and social support as risks for child mortality : consideration of health equity in The Gambia

A matched case-control study of mortality to children under age five was conducted to consider associations with parents' socio-economic status and social support in the Farafenni Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS). Cases and controls were selected from Farafenni DSS, matched on date of birth, and parents were interviewed about personal resources and social networks. Parents with the lowest personal socio-economic status and social support were identified. Multivariate multinomial regression was used to consider whether the children of these parents were at increased risk of either infant or 1-4 mortality, in separate models using either parents' characteristics. There was no benefit found for higher SES or better social support with respect to child mortality. Children of fathers who had the poorest social support had lower 1-4 mortality risk (OR=0.52, p=0.037). Given that socio-economic status was not associated with child mortality, it seems unlikely that the explanation for the link between father's social support and mortality is linked to resource availability. Explanations for the risk effect of father's social ties may lie in decision-making around health maintenance and health care for children.

Interpreting and comparing risks in the presence of competing events

Competing events are common in medical research. Ignoring them in the statistical analysis can easily lead to flawed results and conclusions. This article uses a real dataset and a simple simulation to show how standard analysis fails and how such data should be analysed

Age, physical inactivity, obesity, health conditions, and health-related quality of life among patients receiving conservative management for musculoskeletal disorders

Background Musculoskeletal conditions and insufficient physical activity have substantial personal and economic costs among contemporary aging societies. This study examined the age distribution, comorbid health conditions, body mass index (BMI), self-reported physical activity levels, and health-related quality of life of patients accessing ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. The study also investigated whether comorbidity, BMI, and self-reported physical activity were associated with patients’ health-related quality of life after adjusting for age as a potential confounder. Methods A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in three ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Participants (n=224) reported their reason for referral, age, comorbid health conditions, BMI, physical activity levels (Active Australia Survey), and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D). Descriptive statistics and linear modeling were used to examine the associations between age, comorbidity, BMI, intensity and duration of physical activity, and health-related quality of life. Results The majority of patients (n=115, 51.3%) reported two or more comorbidities. In addition to other musculoskeletal conditions, common comorbidities included depression (n=41, 18.3%), hypertension (n=40, 17.9%), and diabetes (n=39, 17.4%). Approximately one-half of participants (n=110, 49.1%) self-reported insufficient physical activity to meet minimum recommended guidelines and 150 (67.0%) were overweight (n=56, 23.2%), obese (n=64, 28.6%), severely obese (n=16, 7.1%), or very severely obese (n=14, 6.3%), with a higher proportion of older patients affected. A generalized linear model indicated that, after adjusting for age, self-reported physical activity was positively associated (z=4.22, P<0.001), and comorbidities were negatively associated (z=-2.67, P<0.01) with patients’ health-related quality of life. Conclusion Older patients were more frequently affected by undesirable clinical attributes of comorbidity, obesity, and physical inactivity. However, findings from this investigation are compelling for the care of patients of all ages. Potential integration of physical activity behavior change or other effective lifestyle interventions into models of care for patients with musculoskeletal disorders is worthy of further investigation.

Can bone tissue engineering contribute to therapy concepts after resection of musculoskeletal sarcoma?

Resection of musculoskeletal sarcoma can result in large bone defects where regeneration is needed in a quantity far beyond the normal potential of self-healing. In many cases, these defects exhibit a limited intrinsic regenerative potential due to an adjuvant therapeutic regimen, seroma, or infection. Therefore, reconstruction of these defects is still one of the most demanding procedures in orthopaedic surgery. The constraints of common treatment strategies have triggered a need for new therapeutic concepts to design and engineer unparalleled structural and functioning bone grafts. To satisfy the need for long-term repair and good clinical outcome, a paradigm shift is needed from methods to replace tissues with inert medical devices to more biological approaches that focus on the repair and reconstruction of tissue structure and function. It is within this context that the field of bone tissue engineering can offer solutions to be implemented into surgical therapy concepts after resection of bone and soft tissue sarcoma. In this paper we will discuss the implementation of tissue engineering concepts into the clinical field of orthopaedic oncology.

Regulating Workplace Risks: A Comparative Study of Inspection Regimes in Times of Change

Regulating Workplace Risks is a study of regulatory inspection of occupational health and safety (OHS) and its management in five countries – Australia, Canada (Québec), France, Sweden and the UK – during a time of major change. It examines the implications of the shift from specification to process based regulation, in which attention has been increasingly directed to the means of managing OHS more systematically at a time in which a major restructuring of work has occurred in response to the globalised economy. These changes provide both the context and material for a wider discussion of the nature of regulation and regulatory inspection and their role in protecting the health, safety and well-being of workers in advanced market economies.

Workforce-related risks in projects with a contingent workforce

Our research examined how projects can draw together the fields of human resource management (HRM) and risk management (RM) to consider workforce-related risks on projects; particularly those with a large contingent workforce. It is argued that RM frameworks could be enhanced by a more comprehensive understanding of the specific potential non-technical “people risks” in projects. The study focussed on the Oil and Gas industry and undertook interviews with experts in the field. The findings are considered within the framework of key HRM areas; Management Practices, General Employment Practices, Staffing, HR Development, and Compensation and Benefits, along with Project Completion. Drawing together RM and HRM in a project environment, our research provides a unique opportunity to identify critical workforce-related risks. Such identification is the first step towards a more comprehensive approach to risk assessment and planning for mitigation of such risks in projects.

Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach

This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?

Government grants - an abrogation or management of risks?

New public management (NPFM), with its hands-on, private sector-style performance measurement, output control, parsimonious use of resources, disaggreation of public sector units and greater competition in the public sector, has significantly affected charitable and nonprofit organisations delivering community services (Hood, 1991; Dunleavy, 1994; George & Wilding, 2002). The literature indicates that nonprofit organisations under NPM believe they are doing more for less: while administration is increasing, core costs are not being met; their dependence on government funding comes at the expense of other funding strategies; and there are concerns about proportionality and power asymmetries in the relationship (Kerr & Savelsberg, 2001; Powell & Dalton, 2011; Smith, 2002, p. 175; Morris, 1999, 2000a). Government agencies are under increased pressure to do more with less, demonstrate value for money, measure social outcomes, not merely outputs and minimise political risk (Grant, 2008; McGreogor-Lowndes, 2008). Government-community service organisation relationships are often viewed as 'uneasy alliances' characterised by the pressures that come with the parties' differing roles and expectations and the pressures that come with the parties' differing roles and expectations and the pressurs of funding and security (Productivity Commission, 2010, p. 308; McGregor-Lowndes, 2008, p. 45; Morris, 200a). Significant community services are now delivered to citizens through such relationships, often to the most disadvantaged in the community, and it is important for this to be achieved with equity, efficiently and effectively. On one level, the welfare state was seen as a 'risk management system' for the poor, with the state mitigating the risks of sickness, job loss and old age (Giddens, 1999) with the subsequent neoliberalist outlook shifting this risk back to households (Hacker, 2006). At the core of this risk shift are written contracts. Vincent-Jones (1999,2006) has mapped how NPM is characterised by the use of written contracts for all manner of relations; e.g., relgulation of dealings between government agencies, between individual citizens and the state, and the creation of quais-markets of service providers and infrastructure partners. We take this lens of contracts to examine where risk falls in relation to the outsourcing of community services. First we examine the concept of risk. We consider how risk might be managed and apportioned between governments and community serivce organisations (CSOs) in grant agreements, which are quasiy-market transactions at best. This is informed by insights from the law and economics literature. Then, standard grant agreements covering several years in two jurisdictions - Australia and the United Kingdom - are analysed, to establish the risk allocation between government and CSOs. This is placed in the context of the reform agenda in both jurisdictions. In Australia this context is th enonprofit reforms built around the creation of a national charities regulator, and red tape reduction. In the United Kingdom, the backdrop is the THird Way agenda with its compacts, succeed by Big Society in a climate of austerity. These 'case studies' inform a discussion about who is best placed to bear and manage the risks of community service provision on behalf of government. We conclude by identifying the lessons to be learned from our analysis and possible pathways for further scholarship.

Perceived barriers and facilitators to increasing physical activity among people with musculoskeletal disorders : a qualitative investigation to inform intervention development

Purpose Musculoskeletal conditions can impair people’s ability to undertake physical activity as they age. The purpose of this qualitative study was to investigate perceived barriers and facilitators to undertaking physical activity reported by patients accessing ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Patients and methods A questionnaire with open-ended items was administered to patients (n=217, 73.3% of 296 eligible) from three clinics providing ambulatory services for nonsurgical treatment of musculoskeletal disorders. The survey included questions to capture the clinical and demographic characteristics of the sample. It also comprised two open-ended questions requiring qualitative responses. The first asked the participant to describe factors that made physical activity more difficult, and the second asked which factors made it easier for them to be physically active. Participants’ responses to the two open-ended questions were read, coded, and thematically analyzed independently by two researchers, with a third researcher available to arbitrate any unresolved disagreement. Results The mean (standard deviation) age of participants was 53 (15) years; n=113 (52.1%) were male. A total of 112 (51.6%) participants reported having three or more health conditions; n=140 (64.5%) were classified as overweight or obese. Five overarching themes describing perceived barriers for undertaking physical activity were "health conditions", "time restrictions", "poor physical condition", "emotional, social, and psychological barriers", and "access to exercise opportunities". Perceived physical activity facilitators were also aligned under five themes, namely "improved health state", "social, emotional, and behavioral supports", "access to exercise environment", "opportunities for physical activities", and "time availability". Conclusion It was clear from the breadth of the data that meaningful supports and interventions must be multidimensional. They should have the capacity to address a variety of physical, functional, social, psychological, motivational, environmental, lifestyle, and other perceived barriers. It would appear that for such interventions to be effective, they should be flexible enough to address a variety of specific concerns.

A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.