La incidencia del trabajo infantil en Argentina

Resumen: El tema “trabajo infantil” es complejo de abordar debido a la falta de unicidad en su conceptualización y por la heterogeneidad y multiplicidad que lo caracteriza. No obstante, la diversidad de análisis (tanto descriptivos como estadísticos) en diferentes países sobre la cuestión, ha probado el gran avance en el sorteamiento de estas dificultades, como también brindado la base del diseño de planes de erradicación eficientes. Argentina ha sido una excepción a la regla. A pesar de la existencia de reportes e informes provenientes de organismos gubernamentales nacionales e internacionales se encuentra muy poco desarrollada la investigación basada en las herramientas econométricas. Por consiguiente, este análisis busca ampliar los conocimientos sobre el trabajo infantil en Argentina mediante la construcción de un modelo Logit binario que permita así examinar tanto la incidencia de los factores condicionantes más populares de la bibliografía internacional, así como la llamada “paradoja de la riqueza” planteada por Bhalotra y; por último la obtención de conclusiones sobre el impacto de las asistencias sociales en el trabajo infantil.

The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

La encuesta sobre Equipamiento y Uso de Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicación en los hogares

El objetivo de este trabajo es informar acerca de La encuesta sobre Equipamiento y Uso de Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicación (TIC) en los hogares que realiza el INE todos los años, reflejar el cambio que se está dando en el uso de las nuevas tecnologías e intentar explicar la influencia de algunas variables en los hogares a la hora de comprar en Internet. Para ello, se analizan los resultados de la encuesta en el año 2014 en líneas generales y la metodología llevada a cabo en esta, para posteriormente realizar un análisis más exhaustivo de determinadas variables y estimar un modelo Logit que pretende explicar la influencia de esas variables en la compra por Internet de los hogares. Se ha observado que el uso que la población hace de las nuevas tecnologías está cambiando de manera significativa y se ha comprobado que ciertas variables influyen en la decisión de los hogares de comprar por Internet.

Factors influencing choice of fishing location in Nankumba Peninsula: A case of study of gillnet and chilimira fisheries

This study was carried out to identify factors that influence choice of fishing location and carry out profitability analysis of Chilimira and Gillnet in different fishing locations. A survey using semi-structured questionnaire was administered to 99 Gillnet and 101 Chilimira fishers in Nankumba Peninsula in Mangochi District. The logit model was used to determine the factors influencing choice of fishing location among the fishers. The study showed that 92.1% of Chilimira fishers are operating in offshore areas while 69.7% Gillnet fishers are operating in inshore areas. Chilimira offshore fishers have higher daily average gross margins than their inshore counterparts and Gillnet fishers. However, they incurred more operating costs than the inshore Chilimira and Gillnet fishers. Furthermore, they find their fishing occupation more rewarding as evidenced by the higher returns to labour. The factors that influenced fisher’s choice of fishing location were Age of the fisher, type of fishing vessel and gear, possession of motor sail engine and access to information about previous day’s catch rates. Finally the study concluded that artisanal fishers in Malawi use different criteria in deciding where to fish. The criterion involves a complex interaction of biological, technological, personal and economical factors and time. However, the resource constrained artisanal fisher will need support to enable him exploit offshore fishery resources. Consequently the study recommends that appropriate fishery development interventions by the government and other stakeholders must adapt to the economics and lifestyles driving the artisanal fishers to fish in particular locations and therefore, build on this foundation to improve the existing fishing technologies.

大城市内部商业环境满意度评价与消费区位决策研究-以北京市西城区和海淀区为例

Since 1990s, commercial conditions in China including commercial environment, retail types, scale of retail enterprises, spatial structure of retail and shopping decision making factors have changed. In order to keep up with these changes, commercial geography should set up new perspectives, theories and methods to analyze its internal mechanism and changing rules, and thus provide reasonable and practical scientific basis to commercial planning, location decision of retail enterprises and commercial environment construction. Taking Xicheng and Haidian District of Beijing as research case, which is a sector region from city center to rural region, this paper selects 12 commercial centers as most important study objects of this sector. This paper mainly makes use of the methods of Modeling, Pearson Bivaiiate Correlations Analysis, Factor Analysis and Logit model. Based on 1300 questionnaires and fieldwork, this paper focuses on modeling of Consumer Satisfaction of Commercial Environment (CSCE), evaluation of commercial environment and driving factors of consumers' shopping location decision. Firstly, this paper discusses the development of commercial geography and commercial environment evaluation, the new characteristics and trends of commercial development in Beijing and physical commercial environment of Xicheng and Haidian District of Beijing from chapter 1 to chapter 4. Secondly, this paper summarizes characteristics of residents' shopping behavior in chapter 5. Thirdly, this paper sets up an evaluative model of CSCE, and analyzes consumer satisfaction indexes of commercial environment and their spatial features in chapter 6. Fourthly, this paper infers how residents' attributes and shopping behaviors affect their preferences of shopping location and what are residents' shopping location decisions and their influencing factors in chapter 7. Fifthly, this paper constructs a significant index model and a pyramidal framework of CSCE, and further analyzes the diversity and competitive advantage of commercial environment in chapter 8. Finally, some conclusions are drawn as follows: 1. Characteristics of residents' shopping behavior mostly embody residents' time distance preference, commodity consumption preference, shopping time distribution and shopping activity characteristics. The important factors that influence shopping location choice of residents are distance, transportation, commodity price, commodity types and commodity quality. However, the important factors, which influence shopping location re-choice of residents, are commodity price, commodity quality, commodity types and transportation. 2. CSCE indexes of 12 commercial centers show us significant spatial characteristics, such as spatial differences of "Center-fringe region", spatial characteristics of axes, spatial diversity of ring roads and so on. 3. Influencing factors including factor endowments, relative establishment factor and location and transportation factor of commercial environment are of importance for CSCE. 4. Logit model 1 indicates that shopping behavior of residents is significantly and positively related to working in high-tech companies, high income and by car and positively related to high school diploma, by bus and subway. 5. Logit model 2 indicates that residents' shopping location decision is significantly and positively related to leisure establishment and relative restaurant and entertainment establishment and negatively related to commercial location, commodity price, service quality, parking site. 6. The significant index model and the pyramidal framework of CSCE indicate competitive advantages are crucial to attractive capability of commercial center, and competitive weakness limits development of commercial centers, in particular the weakness of service quality and parking site now is the chief factors restricting development of commercial centers

The human impacts of flower farm development in the Ethiopian Rift Valley region

The flower industry has a reputation for heavy usage of toxic chemicals and polluting the environment, enormous consumption of water, and poor working condition and low wage level in various parts of the world. It is unfortunate that this industry is adamant to change and repeating the same mistakes in Ethiopia. Because of this, - there is a growing concern among the general public and the international community about sustainability of the Ethiopian flower industry. Consequently, working conditions in the flower industry, impacts of wage income on the livelihoods of employees, coping strategies of low wage flower farm workers, impacts of flower farms on the livelihoods of local people and environmental pollution and conflict, were analysed. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods were employed. Four quantitative data sets: labour practice, employees’ income and expenditure, displaced household, and flower grower views survey were collected between 2010 and 2012. Robust regression to identify the determinants of wage levels, and Multinomial logit to identify the determinants of coping strategies of flower farm workers and displaced households were employed. The findings show the working conditions in flower farms are characterized by low wages, job insecurity and frequent violation of employees’ rights, and poor safety measures. To ensure survival of their family, land dispossessed households adopt a wide range of strategies including reduction in food consumption, sharing oxen, renting land, share cropping, and shifting staple food crops. Most experienced scarcity of water resources, lack of grazing areas, death of herds and reduced numbers of livestock due to water source pollution. Despite the Ethiopian government investment in attracting and creating conducive environment for investors, not much was accomplished when it comes to enforcing labour laws and environmental policies. Flower farm expansion in Ethiopia, as it is now, can be viewed as part of the global land and water grab and is not all inclusive and sustainable. Several recommendations are made to improve working conditions, maximize the benefits of flower industry to the society, and to the country at large.

Variation in use of surveillance colonoscopy among colorectal cancer survivors in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines recommend colonoscopies at regular intervals for colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors. Using data from a large, multi-regional, population-based cohort, we describe the rate of surveillance colonoscopy and its association with geographic, sociodemographic, clinical, and health services characteristics. METHODS: We studied CRC survivors enrolled in the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) study. Eligible survivors were diagnosed between 2003 and 2005, had curative surgery for CRC, and were alive without recurrences 14 months after surgery with curative intent. Data came from patient interviews and medical record abstraction. We used a multivariate logit model to identify predictors of colonoscopy use. RESULTS: Despite guidelines recommending surveillance, only 49% of the 1423 eligible survivors received a colonoscopy within 14 months after surgery. We observed large regional differences (38% to 57%) across regions. Survivors who received screening colonoscopy were more likely to: have colon cancer than rectal cancer (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05-1.90); have visited a primary care physician (OR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.14-1.82); and received adjuvant chemotherapy (OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.27-2.41). Compared to survivors with no comorbidities, survivors with moderate or severe comorbidities were less likely to receive surveillance colonoscopy (OR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.49-0.98 and OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.29-0.66, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Despite guidelines, more than half of CRC survivors did not receive surveillance colonoscopy within 14 months of surgery, with substantial variation by site of care. The association of primary care visits and adjuvant chemotherapy use suggests that access to care following surgery affects cancer surveillance.

Preferences for a third-trimester ultrasound scan in a low-risk obstetric population: a discrete choice experiment

Objective: Establish maternal preferences for a third-trimester ultrasound scan in a healthy, low-risk pregnant population.

Design: Cross-sectional study incorporating a discrete choice experiment.

Setting: A large, urban maternity hospital in Northern Ireland.

Participants: One hundred and forty-six women in their second trimester of pregnancy.

Methods: A discrete choice experiment was designed to elicit preferences for four attributes of a third-trimester ultrasound scan: health-care professional conducting the scan, detection rate for abnormal foetal growth, provision of non-medical information, cost. Additional data collected included age, marital status, socio-economic status, obstetric history, pregnancy-specific stress levels, perceived health and whether pregnancy was planned. Analysis was undertaken using a mixed logit model with interaction effects.

Main outcome measures: Women's preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of a hypothetical scan and indirect willingness-to-pay estimates.

Results: Women had significant positive preference for higher rate of detection, lower cost and provision of non-medical information, with no significant value placed on scan operator. Interaction effects revealed subgroups that valued the scan most: women experiencing their first pregnancy, women reporting higher levels of stress, an adverse obstetric history and older women.

Conclusions: Women were able to trade on aspects of care and place relative importance on clinical, non-clinical outcomes and processes of service delivery, thus highlighting the potential of using health utilities in the development of services from a clinical, economic and social perspective. Specifically, maternal preferences exhibited provide valuable information for designing a randomized trial of effectiveness and insight for clinical and policy decision makers to inform woman-centred care.

It's not that I don't care, I just don't care very much: confounding between attribute non-attendance and taste heterogeneity

With the growing interest in the topic of attribute non-attendance, there is now widespread use of latent class (LC) structures aimed at capturing such behaviour, across a number of different fields. Specifically, these studies rely on a confirmatory LC model, using two separate values for each coefficient, one of which is fixed to zero while the other is estimated, and then use the obtained class probabilities as an indication of the degree of attribute non-attendance. In the present paper, we argue that this approach is in fact misguided, and that the results are likely to be affected by confounding with regular taste heterogeneity. We contrast the confirmatory model with an exploratory LC structure in which the values in both classes are estimated. We also put forward a combined latent class mixed logit model (LC-MMNL) which allows jointly for attribute non-attendance and for continuous taste heterogeneity. Across three separate case studies, the exploratory LC model clearly rejects the confirmatory LC approach and suggests that rates of non-attendance may be much lower than what is suggested by the standard model, or even zero. The combined LC-MMNL model similarly produces significant improvements in model fit, along with substantial reductions in the implied rate of attribute non-attendance, in some cases even eliminating the phenomena across the sample population. Our results thus call for a reappraisal of the large body of recent work that has implied high rates of attribute non-attendance for some attributes. Finally, we also highlight a number of general issues with attribute non-attendance, in particular relating to the computation of willingness to pay measures.

Addressing inequalities in physical activity participation: Implications for public health policy and practice

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the characteristics of those doing no moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (0days/week), some MVPA (1-4days/week) and sufficient MVPA (≥5days/week) to meet the guidelines in order to effectively develop and target PA interventions to address inequalities in participation.

METHOD: A population survey (2010/2011) of 4653 UK adults provided data on PA and socio-demographic characteristics. An ordered logit model investigated the covariates of 1) participating in no PA, 2) participating in some PA, and 3) meeting the PA guidelines. Model predictions were derived for stereotypical subgroups to highlight important policy and practice implications.

RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 45years old (95% CI 44.51, 45.58) and 42% were male. Probability forecasting showed that males older than 55years of age (probability=0.20; 95% CI 0.11, 0.28), and both males (probability=0.31; 95% CI 0.17, 0.45) and females (probability=0.38; 95% CI 0.27, 0.50) who report poor health are significantly more likely to do no PA.

CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the characteristics of those doing no MVPA and some MVPA could help develop population-level interventions targeting those most in need. Findings suggest that interventions are needed to target older adults, particularly males, and those who report poor health.

Content Validity in Landscape Valuation: A transdisciplinary approach to valuing the landscape of the peninsula of Sorrento, Italy.

This paper addresses the representation of landscape complexity in stated preferences research. It integrates landscape ecology and landscape economics and conducts the landscape analysis in a three-dimensional space to provide ecologically meaningful quantitative landscape indicators that are used as variables for the monetary valuation of landscape in a stated preferences study. Expected heterogeneity in taste intensity across respondents is addressed with a mixed logit model in Willingness to Pay space. The results suggest that the integration of landscape ecology metrics in a stated preferences model provides useful insights for valuing landscape and landscape changes

Stated preference methods and landscape ecology indicators: an example of transdisciplinarity in landscape economic valuation

This paper addresses the representation of landscape complexity in stated preferences research. It integrates landscape ecology and landscape economics and conducts the landscape analysis in a three-dimensional space to provide ecologically meaningful quantitative landscape indicators that are used as variables for the monetary valuation of landscape in a stated preferences study. Expected heterogeneity in taste intensity across respondents is addressed with a mixed logit model in Willingness to Pay space. Our methodology is applied to value, in monetary terms, the landscape of the Sorrento Peninsula in Italy, an area that has faced increasing pressure from urbanization affecting its traditional horticultural, herbaceous, and arboreal structure, with loss of biodiversity, and an increasing risk of landslides. We find that residents of the Sorrento Peninsula would prefer landscapes characterized by large open views and natural features. Residents also appear to dislike heterogeneous landscapes and the presence of lemon orchards and farmers' stewardship, which are associated with the current failure of protecting the traditional landscape. The outcomes suggest that the use of landscape ecology metrics in a stated preferences model may be an effective way to move forward integrated methodologies to better understand and represent landscape and its complexity.

Simulation of economic benefits achieved by water quality improvement for recreational and professional users, within the SPICOSSA SSA (SPICOSSA System Approach) 11 - Guadiana estuary ecosystem sic

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão da Água e da Costa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2010

Consumer satisfaction with water, wastewater and waste services in Portugal

While the concept of consumer satisfaction is a central topic in modern marketing theory and practice, citizens' satisfaction with public services, and especially water and waste services, is a eld that still remains empirically rather unexplored. The following study aims to contribute to this area by analysing the determinants of user satisfaction in the water, wastewater and waste sector in Portugal, using a unique survey of 1070 consumers undertaken by the Portuguese Water and Waste Regulator ERSAR. I perform an analysis of the relation between overall service satisfaction and attributespeci c service satisfaction with an ordered logit model. I then explore if subjective consumer satisfaction can be re ected by ERSAR's technical performance indicators. The results suggest that overall consumer satisfaction is driven by consumer's satisfaction with speci c service aspects but unrelated to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Furthermore, I show that there is no monotonic association between ERSAR's technical performance indicators and consumers' levels of satisfaction.

Les déterminants des faillites bancaires dans les pays en développement: le cas des pays de l'Union économique et monétaire Ouest-africaine (UEMOA)

L’objectif de ce papier est de déterminer les facteurs susceptibles d’expliquer les faillites bancaires au sein de l’Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine (UEMOA) entre 1980 et 1995. Utilisant le modèle logit conditionnel sur des données en panel, nos résultats montrent que les variables qui affectent positivement la probabilité de faire faillite des banques sont : i) le niveau d’endettement auprès de la banque centrale; ii) un faible niveau de comptes disponibles et à vue; iii) les portefeuilles d’effets commerciaux par rapport au total des crédits; iv) le faible montant des dépôts à terme de plus de 2 ans à 10 ans par rapport aux actifs totaux; et v) le ratio actifs liquides sur actifs totaux. En revanche, les variables qui contribuent positivement sur la vraisemblance de survie des banques sont les suivantes : i) le ratio capital sur actifs totaux; ii) les bénéfices nets par rapport aux actifs totaux; iii) le ratio crédit total sur actifs totaux; iv) les dépôts à terme à 2 ans par rapport aux actifs totaux; et v) le niveau des engagements sous forme de cautions et avals par rapport aux actifs totaux. Les ratios portefeuilles d’effets commerciaux et actifs liquides par rapport aux actifs totaux sont les variables qui expliquent la faillite des banques commerciales, alors que ce sont les dépôts à terme de plus de 2 ans à 10 ans qui sont à l’origine des faillites des banques de développement. Ces faillites ont été considérablement réduites par la création en 1989 de la commission de réglementation bancaire régionale. Dans l’UEMOA, seule la variable affectée au Sénégal semble contribuer positivement sur la probabilité de faire faillite.