MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate

The EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI: "Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation" (http://megapoli.info) brings together leading European research groups, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from non-European countries to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The suggested concept of multi-scale integrated modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate and vice versa is discussed in the paper. It requires considering different spatial and temporal dimensions: time scales from seconds and hours (to understand the interaction mechanisms) up to years and decades (to consider the climate effects); spatial resolutions: with model down- and up-scaling from street- to global-scale; and two-way interactions between meteorological and chemical processes.

Can a climate model reproduce extreme regional precipitation events over England and Wales?

The ability of the HiGEM climate model to represent high-impact, regional, precipitation events is investigated in two ways. The first focusses on a case study of extreme regional accumulation of precipitation during the passage of a summer extra-tropical cyclone across southern England on 20 July 2007 that resulted in a national flooding emergency. The climate model is compared with a global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and higher resolution, nested limited area models. While the climate model does not simulate the timing and location of the cyclone and associated precipitation as accurately as the NWP simulations, the total accumulated precipitation in all models is similar to the rain gauge estimate across England and Wales. The regional accumulation over the event is insensitive to horizontal resolution for grid spacings ranging from 90km to 4km. Secondly, the free-running climate model reproduces the statistical distribution of daily precipitation accumulations observed in the England-Wales precipitation record. The model distribution diverges increasingly from the record for longer accumulation periods with a consistent under-representation of more intense multi-day accumulations. This may indicate a lack of low-frequency variability associated with weather regime persistence. Despite this, the overall seasonal and annual precipitation totals from the model are still comparable to those from ERA-Interim.

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

Assessing the ability of rural agrarian areas to provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES): a Multi Scale Social Indicator Framework (MSIF)

Assessing the ways in which rural agrarian areas provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) is proving difficult to achieve. This research has developed an innovative methodological approach named as Multi Scale Indicator Framework (MSIF) for capturing the CES embedded into the rural agrarian areas. This framework reconciles a literature review with a trans-disciplinary participatory workshop. Both of these sources reveal that societal preferences diverge upon judgemental criteria which in turn relate to different visual concepts that can be drawn from analysing attributes, elements, features and characteristics of rural areas. We contend that it is now possible to list a group of possible multi scale indicators for stewardship, diversity and aesthetics. These results might also be of use for improving any existing European indicators frameworks by also including CES. This research carries major implications for policy at different levels of governance, as it makes possible to target and monitor policy instruments to the physical rural settings so that cultural dimensions are adequately considered. There is still work to be developed on regional specific values and thresholds for each criteria and its indicator set. In practical terms, by developing the conceptual design within a common framework as described in this paper, a considerable step forward towards the inclusion of the cultural dimension in European wide assessments can be made.

A multi-model evaluation of aerosols over South Asia: common problems and possible causes

Atmospheric pollution over South Asia attracts special attention due to its effects on regional climate, water cycle and human health. These effects are potentially growing owing to rising trends of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In this study, the spatio-temporal aerosol distributions over South Asia from seven global aerosol models are evaluated against aerosol retrievals from NASA satellite sensors and ground-based measurements for the period of 2000–2007. Overall, substantial underestimations of aerosol loading over South Asia are found systematically in most model simulations. Averaged over the entire South Asia, the annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is underestimated by a range 15 to 44% across models compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer), which is the lowest bound among various satellite AOD retrievals (from MISR, SeaWiFS (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra). In particular during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods (i.e., October–January), when agricultural waste burning and anthropogenic emissions dominate, models fail to capture AOD and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Indo–Gangetic Plain (IGP) compared to ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sunphotometer measurements. The underestimations of aerosol loading in models generally occur in the lower troposphere (below 2 km) based on the comparisons of aerosol extinction profiles calculated by the models with those from Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data. Furthermore, surface concentrations of all aerosol components (sulfate, nitrate, organic aerosol (OA) and black carbon (BC)) from the models are found much lower than in situ measurements in winter. Several possible causes for these common problems of underestimating aerosols in models during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods are identified: the aerosol hygroscopic growth and formation of secondary inorganic aerosol are suppressed in the models because relative humidity (RH) is biased far too low in the boundary layer and thus foggy conditions are poorly represented in current models, the nitrate aerosol is either missing or inadequately accounted for, and emissions from agricultural waste burning and biofuel usage are too low in the emission inventories. These common problems and possible causes found in multiple models point out directions for future model improvements in this important region.

Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of a benchmark wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021–2060 and 2061–2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveals a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is, in particular, probable during the second half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061–2100 compared to 2021–2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multi-model study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

The consequences of land use change on nutrient exports: a regional scale assessment in south-west Victoria, Australia

Estimation of nutrient load production based on multi-temporal remotely sensed land use data for the Glenelg–Hopkins region in south-west Victoria, Australia, is discussed. Changes in land use were mapped using archived Landsat data and computerised classification techniques. Land use change has been rapid in recent history with 16% of the region transformed in the last 22 years. Total nitrogen and phosphorus loads were estimated using an export coefficient model. The analysis demonstrates an increase in modelled nitrogen and phosphorus loadings from 1980 to 2002. Whilst such increases were suspected from past anecdotal and ad-hoc evidence, our modelling estimated the magnitude of such increases and thus demonstrated the enormous potential of using remote sensing and GIS for monitoring regional scale environmental processes.

A rural model for delivering regional continuing nurse education by videoconference : a pilot project

Background : The South West Alliance of Rural Health (SWARH) is an alliance of 33 health care agencies scattered across South West Victoria over a total area of approximately 46 000 square kilometres. SWARH was established to develop and install information technology (IT) infrastructure, hardware and software for all acute public hospitals in the region. The Rural Intercampus Learning Environment Project (March 2003-March 2004) piloted the use of the SWARH regional area IT network to deliver a program of continuing education to Division 1 registered nurses, utilising the expertise of local health professionals. The study was funded by the Department of Human Services, Victoria.

Aims & rationale/Objectives : Establish partnerships for multi-site delivery of programs.
Develop existing educational programs and resources for video and intranet delivery (including IT training and change management).
Collaboratively deliver educational programs utilising SWARHnet to six rural sites.
Explore issues related to the use of the technology in continuing education for rural nurses and the implications for practice.

Methods : Key informant interviews, paper-based audits, and focus groups informed the development of the schedule of the program. Session participants completed a 2-page evaluation questionnaire.

Principal findings : Participants must own the process.
Videoconferencing should be considered an adjunct to traditional education programs.
Videoconferencing most suitable for short education sessions as opposed to full-day workshops.
IT problems are unpredictable and frustrating for all concerned.
IT awareness/training of staff is essential.

Implications : The project proposes a model for coordinating and delivering regional continuing education which has been shown to improve access to education programs across multiple sites. It provides a sustainable organisational framework for the program, which could be applied in continuing professional education programs of other rural health professions, such as dentistry, medicine, allied health and pharmacy.

Presentation type : Poster

Evaluation of housing developments for sustainability using a multi-criteria approach

New housing developments in Australia, particularly on Greenfield sites on the edge of existing urban centres, need to be sustainable in environmental and social terms if long term problems are to be avoided. Sustainability is multi-dimensional and existing analyses have been found to be inadequate in assessing housing developments holistically. This paper describes research which has used five criteria (energy use, resource use, neighbourhood character, neighbourhood connectivity and diversity), representing 31 indicators, to assess three housing precincts of a regional city in southern Australia. The method has been found to produce useful assessments of sustainability. The method has the potential to inform future housing developments and to be used to improve existing suburbs.

Patterns and perceptions of physical activity and sedentary time in male transport drivers working in regional Australia

 Abstract

Objective: To objectively measure physical activity (PA) patterns and sedentary time, and explore perceptions of workplace PA opportunities in regional male transport workers.

Methods: A multi-method study involving 28 drivers (52.4±9.69years) working at a bus company in South-East Queensland, Australia. PA was measured using accelerometers (n=23) to determine the proportion of time spent in sedentary (<150 cpm), light (151–2,689 cpm) and moderate+ (≥2,690 cpm) intensity categories. Paired sample t-tests were used to evaluate differences between categories on a workday/off-workday (n=16), and during work/non-work time (n=15). Interviews were conducted with 28 drivers and six managers to explore perceptions and ideas relating to workplace PA opportunities.

Results: Sedentary time was significantly higher on off-work (64% of wear time) than work (52%) days (p<0.05), while the opposite was the case for light intensity time (off-workday=33%; workday=44%; p<0.05). On workdays, sedentary time was significantly lower when employees were working (44%) than when not working (60%; p<0.05). No significant differences were found for time spent in moderate+ PA. Driver perceptions indicated that PA opportunities (walking club and corporate gym membership) were being adopted by some drivers. However, at this depot, perceived health issues and organisational barriers (shift work and irregular driving routines), tended to preclude some drivers from engaging with these opportunities.

Conclusions: Findings contest the notion that a sedentary occupation such as driving necessitates an inactive work environment.

Implications: This research informs ongoing intervention efforts to target inactive drivers who are struggling to take advantage of existing workplace-related PA opportunities.

(1)H-NMR analysis of the human urinary metabolome in response to an 18-month multi-component exercise program and calcium-vitamin-D3 supplementation in older men

The musculoskeletal benefits of calcium and vitamin-D3 supplementation and exercise have been extensively studied, but the effect on metabolism remains contentious. Urine samples were analyzed by (1)H-NMR spectroscopy from participants recruited for an 18-month, randomized controlled trial of a multi-component exercise program and calcium and vitamin-D3 fortified milk consumption. It was shown previously that no increase in musculoskeletal composition was observed for participants assigned to the calcium and vitamin-D3 intervention, but exercise resulted in increased bone mineral density, total lean body mass, and muscle strength. Retrospective metabolomics analysis of urine samples from patients involved in this study revealed no distinct changes in the urinary metabolome in response to the calcium and vitamin-D3 intervention, but significant changes followed the exercise intervention, notably a reduction in creatinine and an increase in choline, guanidinoacetate, and hypoxanthine (p < 0.001, fold change > 1.5). These metabolites are intrinsically involved in anaerobic ATP synthesis, intracellular buffering, and methyl-balance regulation. The exercise intervention had a marked effect on the urine metabolome and markers of muscle turnover but none of these metabolites were obvious markers of bone turnover. Measurement of specific urinary exercise biomarkers may provide a basis for monitoring performance and metabolic response to exercise regimes.

Coordenação e governança no Programa Territórios da Cidadania: uma análise multi-level a partir do Vale do Ribeira-SP

Poverty in Brazil has been gradually reduced. Among the main reasons, there are public policies for universalization of rights. On the other hand, the municipalities' Human Development Index indicates scenarios of growing inequality. In other words, some regions, basically of rural character, were left behind in that process of development. In 2008, the “Territórios da Cidadania” (Territories of Citizenship) Program was launched by the federal government, under high expectations. It was proposed to develop those regions and to prioritize the arrival of ongoing federal public policies where they were most demanded. The program has shown an innovative arrangement which included dozens of ministries and other federal agencies, state governments, municipalities and collegialities to the palliative management and control of the territory. In this structure, both new and existing jurisdictions came to support the program coordination. This arrangement was classified as an example of multi-level governance, whose theory has been an efficient instrument to understand the intra- and intergovernmental relations under which the program took place. The program lasted only three years. In Vale do Ribeira Territory – SP, few community leaderships acknowledge it, although not having further information about its actions and effects. Against this background, the approach of this research aims to study the program coordination and governance structure (from Vale Territory, considered as the most local level, until the federal government), based on the hypothesis that, beyond the local contingencies in Vale do Ribeira, the layout and implementation of the Territories of Citizenship Program as they were formulated possess fundamental structural issues that hinder its goals of reducing poverty and inequality through promoting the development of the territory. Complementing the research, its specific goal was to raise the program layout and background in order to understand how the relations, predicted or not in its structure, were formulated and how they were developed, with special attention to Vale do Ribeira-SP. Generally speaking, it was concluded that the coordination and governance arrangement of the Territories of Citizenship Program failed for not having developed qualified solutions to deal with the challenges of the federalist Brazilian structure, party politics, sectorized public actions, or even the territory contingencies and specificities. The complexity of the program, the poverty problem proposed to be faced, and the territorial strategy of development charged a high cost of coordination, which was not accomplished by the proposal of centralization in the federal government with internal decentralization of the coordination. As the presidency changed in 2011, the program could not present results that were able to justify the arguments for its continuation, therefore it was paralyzed, lost its priority status, and the resources previously invested were redirected.

Sistemas orbitais e aéreos aplicados à análise multi-escala da tectônica rúptil atuante na borda sudeste da Bacia do Parnaíba

The tectonics activity on the southern border of Parnaíba Basin resulted in a wide range of brittle structures that affect siliciclastic sedimentary rocks. This tectonic activity and related faults, joints, and folds are poorly known. The main aims of this study were (1) to identify lineaments using several remotesensing systems, (2) to check how the interpretation based on these systems at several scales influence the identification of lineaments, and (3) to contribute to the knowledge of brittle tectonics in the southern border of the Parnaíba Basin. The integration of orbital and aerial systems allowed a multi-scale identification, classification, and quantification of lineaments. Maps of lineaments were elaborated in the following scales: 1:200,000 (SRTM Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission), 1:50,000 (Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite), 1:10,000 (aerial photographs) and 1:5,000 (Quickbird satellite). The classification of the features with structural significance allowed the determination of four structural sets: NW, NS, NE, and EW. They were usually identified in all remote-sensing systems. The NE-trending set was not easily identified in aerial photographs but was better visualized on images of medium-resolution systems (SRTM and Landsat 7 ETM+). The same behavior characterizes the NW-trending. The NS-and EW-trending sets were better identified on images from high-resolution systems (aerial photographs and Quickbird). The structural meaning of the lineaments was established after field work. The NEtrending set is associated with normal and strike-slip faults, including deformation bands. These are the oldest structures identified in the region and are related to the reactivation of Precambrian basement structures from the Transbrazilian Lineament. The NW-trending set represents strike-slip and subordinated normal faults. The high dispersion of this set suggests a more recent origin than the previous structures. The NW-trending set may be related to the Picos-Santa Inês Lineament. The NS-and EW-trending sets correspond to large joints (100 m 5 km long). The truncation relationships between these joint sets indicate that the EW-is older than the NS-trending set. The methodology developed by the present work is an excellent tool for the understanding of the regional and local tectonic structures in the Parnaíba basin. It helps the choice of the best remote-sensing system to identify brittle features in a poorly known sedimentary basin