Multi-valued control problems and mixture density network

We have proposed a novel robust inversion-based neurocontroller that searches for the optimal control law by sampling from the estimated Gaussian distribution of the inverse plant model. However, for problems involving the prediction of continuous variables, a Gaussian model approximation provides only a very limited description of the properties of the inverse model. This is usually the case for problems in which the mapping to be learned is multi-valued or involves hysteritic transfer characteristics. This often arises in the solution of inverse plant models. In order to obtain a complete description of the inverse model, a more general multicomponent distributions must be modeled. In this paper we test whether our proposed sampling approach can be used when considering an arbitrary conditional probability distributions. These arbitrary distributions will be modeled by a mixture density network. Importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The effectiveness of the importance sampling from an arbitrary conditional probability distribution will be demonstrated using a simple single input single output static nonlinear system with hysteretic characteristics in the inverse plant model.

Osmotic dehydration in plant tissues

The primary aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive investigation of the osmotic dehydration processes in plant tissue. Effort has been concentrated on the modelling for simulating the processes. Two mathematical models for simulating the mass transfer during osmotic dehydration processes in plant tissues are developed and verified using existing experimental data. Both models are based on the mechanism of diffusion and convection of any mobile material that can transport in plant tissues. The mass balance equation for the transport of each constituent is established separately for intracellular and extra-cellular volumes with taking into account the mass transfer across the cell membrane the intracellular and extra-cellular volumes and the shrinkage of the whole tissue. The contribution from turgor pressure is considered in both models. Model two uses Darcy’s law to build the relation between shrinkage velocity and hydrostatic pressure in each volume because the plant tissue can be considered as the porous medium. Moreover, it has been extended to solve the multi-dimensional problems. A lot of efforts have been made to the parameter study and the sensitivity analyses. The parameters investigated including the concentration of the osmotic solution, diffusion coefficient, permeability of the cell membrane, elastic modulus of the cell wall, critical cell volume etc. The models allow us to quantitatively simulate the time evolution of intracellular and extra-cellular volumes as well as the time evolution of concentrations in each cross-section.

Integrated manufacturing systems design in a multi-product company

Using a hydraulic equipment manufacturing plant as the case study, this work explores the problems of systems integration in manufacturing systems design, stressing the behavioural aspects of motivation and participation, and the constraints involved in the proper consideration of the human sub-system. The need for a simple manageable modular organisation structure is illustrated, where it is shown, by reference to systems theory, how a business can be split into semi-autonomous operating units. The theme is the development of a manufacturing system based on an analysis of the business, its market, product, technology and constraints, coupled with a critical survey of modern management literature to develop an integrated systems design to suit a specific company in the current social environment. Society currently moves through a socio-technical revolution with man seeking higher levels of motivation. The transitory environment from an autocratic/paternalistic to a participative operating mode demands systems parameters only found to a limited extent in manufacturing systems today. It is claimed, that modern manufacturing systems design needs to be based on group working, job enrichment, delegation of decision making and reduced job monotony. The analysis shows how negative aspects of cellular manufacture such as lack of flexibility and poor fixed asset utilisation are relatively irrelevant and misleading in the broader context of the need to come to terms with the social stresses imposed on a company operating in the industrial environment of the present and the immediate future.

Performance, emission and combustion characteristics of an indirect injection (IDI) multi-cylinder compression ignition (CI) engine operating on neat jatropha and karanj oils preheated by jacket water

Renewable non-edible plant oils such as jatropha and karanj have potential to substitute fossil diesel fuels in CI engines. A multi-cylinder water cooled IDI type CI engine has been tested with jatropha and karanj oils and comparisons made against fossil diesel. The physical and chemical properties of the three fuels were measured to investigate the suitability of jatropha and karanj oils as fuels for CI engines. The engine cooling water circuit and fuel supply systems were modified such that hot jacket water preheated the neat plant oil prior to injection. Between jatropha and karanj there was little difference in the performance, emission and combustion results. Compared to fossil diesel, the brake specific fuel consumption on volume basis was around 3% higher for the plant oils and the brake thermal efficiency was almost similar. Jatropha and karanj operation resulted in higher CO 2 and NO x emissions by 7% and 8% respectively, as compared to diesel. The cylinder gas pressure diagram showed stable engine operation with both plant oils. At full load, the plant oils gave around 3% higher peak cylinder pressure than fossil diesel. With the plant oils, cumulative heat release was smaller at low load and almost similar at full load, compared to diesel. At full load, the plant oils exhibited 5% shorter combustion duration. The study concludes that the IDI type CI engine can be efficiently operated with neat jatropha (or karanj) oil preheated by jacket water, after small modifications of the engine cooling and fuel supply circuits. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

A decision support system for supplier selection and order allocation in stochastic, multi-stakeholder and multi-criteria environments

Integrated supplier selection and order allocation is an important decision for both designing and operating supply chains. This decision is often influenced by the concerned stakeholders, suppliers, plant operators and customers in different tiers. As firms continue to seek competitive advantage through supply chain design and operations they aim to create optimized supply chains. This calls for on one hand consideration of multiple conflicting criteria and on the other hand consideration of uncertainties of demand and supply. Although there are studies on supplier selection using advanced mathematical models to cover a stochastic approach, multiple criteria decision making techniques and multiple stakeholder requirements separately, according to authors' knowledge there is no work that integrates these three aspects in a common framework. This paper proposes an integrated method for dealing with such problems using a combined Analytic Hierarchy Process-Quality Function Deployment (AHP-QFD) and chance constrained optimization algorithm approach that selects appropriate suppliers and allocates orders optimally between them. The effectiveness of the proposed decision support system has been demonstrated through application and validation in the bioenergy industry.

A multi-scale assessment of physiological processes in arctic tundra plants under natural and simulated climate change scenarios

Climate warming is predicted to cause an increase in the growing season by as much as 30% for regions of the arctic tundra. This will have a significant effect on the physiological activity of the vascular plant species and the ecosystem as a whole. The need to understand the possible physiological change within this ecosystem is confounded by the fact that research in this extreme environment has been limited to periods when conditions are most favorable, mid June–mid August. This study attempted to develop the most comprehensive understanding to date of the physiological activity of seven tundra plant species in the Alaskan Arctic under natural and lengthened growing season conditions. Four interrelated lines of research, scaling from cellular signals to ecosystem processes, set the foundation for this study. ^ I established an experiment looking at the physiological response of arctic sedges to soil temperature stress with emphasis on the role of the hormone abscisic acid (ABA). A manipulation was also developed where the growing season was lengthened and soils were warmed in an attempt to determine the maximum physiological capacity of these seven vascular species. Additionally, the physiological capacities of four evergreens were tested in the subnivean environment along with the potential role anthocyanins play in their activity. The measurements were scaled up to determine the physiological role of these evergreens in maintaining ecosystem carbon fluxes. ^ These studies determined that soil temperature differentials significantly affect vascular plant physiology. ABA appears to be a physiological modifier that limits stomatal processes when root temperatures are low. Photosynthetic capacity was limited by internal plant physiological mechanisms in the face of a lengthened growing season. Therefore shifts in ecosystem carbon dynamics are driven by changes in species composition and biomass production on a per/unit area basis. These studies also found that changes in soil temperatures will have a greater effect of physiological processes than would the same magnitude of change in air temperature. The subnivean environment exhibits conditions that are favorable for photosynthetic activity in evergreen species. These measurements when scaled to the ecosystem have a significant role in limiting the system's carbon source capacity. ^

Across-scale patterning of plant-soil-water interactions surrounding tree islands in Southern Everglades landscapes

The freshwater Everglades is a complex system containing thousands of tree islands embedded within a marsh-grassland matrix. The tree island-marsh mosaic is shaped and maintained by hydrologic, edaphic and biological mechanisms that interact across multiple scales. Preserving tree islands requires a more integrated understanding of how scale-dependent phenomena interact in the larger freshwater system. The hierarchical patch dynamics paradigm provides a conceptual framework for exploring multi-scale interactions within complex systems. We used a three-tiered approach to examine the spatial variability and patterning of nutrients in relation to site parameters within and between two hydrologically defined Everglades landscapes: the freshwater Marl Prairie and the Ridge and Slough. Results were scale-dependent and complexly interrelated. Total carbon and nitrogen patterning were correlated with organic matter accumulation, driven by hydrologic conditions at the system scale. Total and bioavailable phosphorus were most strongly related to woody plant patterning within landscapes, and were found to be 3 to 11 times more concentrated in tree island soils compared to surrounding marshes. Below canopy resource islands in the slough were elongated in a downstream direction, indicating soil resource directional drift. Combined multi-scale results suggest that hydrology plays a significant role in landscape patterning and also the development and maintenance of tree islands. Once developed, tree islands appear to exert influence over the spatial distribution of nutrients, which can reciprocally affect other ecological processes.

Evaluating High-Resolution Aerial Photography Acquired by Unmanned Aerial Systems for Use in Mapping Everglades Wetland Plant Associations

Mapping of vegetation patterns over large extents using remote sensing methods requires field sample collections for two different purposes: (1) the establishment of plant association classification systems from samples of relative abundance estimates; and (2) training for supervised image classification and accuracy assessment of satellite data derived maps. One challenge for both procedures is the establishment of confidence in results and the analysis across multiple spatial scales. Continuous data sets that enable cross-scale studies are very time consuming and expensive to acquire and such extensive field sampling can be invasive. The use of high resolution aerial photography (hrAP) offers an alternative to extensive, invasive, field sampling and can provide large volume, spatially continuous, reference information that can meet the challenges of confidence building and multi-scale analysis.

Plant leaf wax (n-alkane) data from sediment core MD96-2048

In this study we investigate Pleistocene vegetation and climate change in southern East Africa by examining plant leaf waxes in a marine sediment core that receives terrestrial runoff from the Limpopo River. The plant leaf wax records are compared to a multi-proxy sea surface temperature (SST) record and pollen assemblage data from the same site. We find that Indian Ocean SST variability, driven by high-latitude obliquity, exerted a strong control on the vegetation of southern East Africa during the past 800,000 yr. Interglacial periods were characterized by relatively wetter and warmer conditions, increased contributions of C3 vegetation, and higher SST, whereas glacial periods were marked by cooler and arid conditions, increased contributions of C4 vegetation, and lower SST. We find that Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5e, 11c, 15e and 7a-7c are strongly expressed in the plant leaf wax records but MIS 7e is absent while MIS 9 is rather weak. Our plant leaf wax records also record the climate transition associated with the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE) suggesting that the pre-MBE interval (430-800 ka) was characterized by higher inputs from grasses in comparison to relatively higher inputs from trees in the post-MBE interval (430 to 0 ka). Differences in vegetation and SST of southern East Africa between the pre- and post-MBE intervals appear to be related to shifts in the location of the Subtropical Front. Comparison with vegetation records from tropical East Africa indicates that the vegetation of southern East Africa, while exhibiting glacial-interglacial variability and notable differences between the pre- and post-MBE portions of the record, likely did not experience such dramatic extremes as occurred to the north at Lake Malawi.

The Roles of Phenotypic Plasticity and Plant-Microbe Interactions in the Evolution of Complex Traits in Boechera stricta

All organisms live in complex habitats that shape the course of their evolution by altering the phenotype expressed by a given genotype (a phenomenon known as phenotypic plasticity) and simultaneously by determining the evolutionary fitness of that phenotype. In some cases, phenotypic evolution may alter the environment experienced by future generations. This dissertation describes how genetic and environmental variation act synergistically to affect the evolution of glucosinolate defensive chemistry and flowering time in Boechera stricta, a wild perennial herb. I focus particularly on plant-associated microbes as a part of the plant’s environment that may alter trait evolution and in turn be affected by the evolution of those traits. In the first chapter I measure glucosinolate production and reproductive fitness of over 1,500 plants grown in common gardens in four diverse natural habitats, to describe how patterns of plasticity and natural selection intersect and may influence glucosinolate evolution. I detected extensive genetic variation for glucosinolate plasticity and determined that plasticity may aid colonization of new habitats by moving phenotypes in the same direction as natural selection. In the second chapter I conduct a greenhouse experiment to test whether naturally-occurring soil microbial communities contributed to the differences in phenotype and selection that I observed in the field experiment. I found that soil microbes cause plasticity of flowering time but not glucosinolate production, and that they may contribute to natural selection on both traits; thus, non-pathogenic plant-associated microbes are an environmental feature that could shape plant evolution. In the third chapter, I combine a multi-year, multi-habitat field experiment with high-throughput amplicon sequencing to determine whether B. stricta-associated microbial communities are shaped by plant genetic variation. I found that plant genotype predicts the diversity and composition of leaf-dwelling bacterial communities, but not root-associated bacterial communities. Furthermore, patterns of host genetic control over associated bacteria were largely site-dependent, indicating an important role for genotype-by-environment interactions in microbiome assembly. Together, my results suggest that soil microbes influence the evolution of plant functional traits and, because they are sensitive to plant genetic variation, this trait evolution may alter the microbial neighborhood of future B. stricta generations. Complex patterns of plasticity, selection, and symbiosis in natural habitats may impact the evolution of glucosinolate profiles in Boechera stricta.

Overview on bio-based building material made with plant aggregate

Global warming, energy savings, and life cycle analysis issues are factors that have contributed to the rapid expansion of plant-based materials for buildings, which can be qualified as environmental-friendly, sustainable and efficient multifunctional materials. This review presents an overview on the several possibilities developed worldwide about the use of plant aggregate to design bio-based building materials. The use of crushed vegetal aggregates such as hemp (shiv), flax, coconut shells and other plants associated to mineral binder represents the most popular solution adopted in the beginning of this revolution in building materials. Vegetal aggregates are generally highly porous with a low apparent density and a complex architecture marked by a multi-scale porosity. These geometrical characteristics result in a high capacity to absorb sounds and have hygro-thermal transfer ability. This is one of the essential characteristics which differ of vegetal concrete compared to the tradition mineral-based concretes. In addition, the high flexibility of the aggregates leads to a non-fragile elasto-plastic behavior and a high deformability under stress, lack of fracturing and marked ductility with absorbance of the strains ever after having reached the maximum mechanical strength. Due to the sensitivity to moisture, the assessment of the durability of vegetal concrete constitutes one of the next scientific challenging of bio-based building materials.

Optimising plant bed performance through adaptive research with the Australian sweetpotato industry

A key driver of Australian sweetpotato productivity improvements and consumer demand has been industry adoption of disease-free planting material systems. On a farm isolated from main Australian sweetpotato areas, virus-free germplasm is annually multiplied, with subsequent 'pathogen-tested' (PT) sweetpotato roots shipped to commercial Australian sweetpotato growers. They in turn plant their PT roots into specially designated plant beds, commencing in late winter. From these beds, they cut sprouts as the basis for their commercial fields. Along with other intense agronomic practices, this system enables Australian producers to achieve worldRSQUOs highest commercial yields (per hectare) of premium sweetpotatoes. Their industry organisation, ASPG (Australian Sweetpotato Growers Inc.), has identified productivity of mother plant beds as a key driver of crop performance. Growers and scientists are currently collaborating to investigate issues such as catastrophic plant beds losses; optimisation of irrigation and nutrient addition; rapidity and uniformity of initial plant bed harvests; optimal plant bed harvest techniques; virus re-infection of plant beds; and practical longevity of plant beds. A survey of 50 sweetpotato growers in Queensland and New South Wales identified a substantial diversity in current plant bed systems, apparently influenced by growing district, scale of operation, time of planting, and machinery/labour availability. Growers identified key areas for plant bed research as: optimising the size and grading specifications of PT roots supplied for the plant beds; change in sprout density, vigour and performance through sequential cuttings of the plant bed; optimal height above ground level to cut sprouts to maximise commercial crop and plant bed performance; and use of structures and soil amendments in plant bed systems. Our ongoing multi-disciplinary research program integrates detailed agronomic experiments, grower adaptive learning sites, product quality and consumer research, to enhance industry capacity for inspired innovation and commercial, sustainable practice change.

MULTI-UNIT ACCIDENT CONTRIBUTIONS TO U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION QUANTITATIVE HEALTH OBJECTIVES: A SAFETY GOAL POLICY ANALYSIS USING MODELS FROM STATE-OF-THE-ART REACTOR CONSEQUENCE ANALYSES

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission implemented a safety goal policy in response to the 1979 Three Mile Island accident. This policy addresses the question “How safe is safe enough?” by specifying quantitative health objectives (QHOs) for comparison with results from nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) to determine whether proposed regulatory actions are justified based on potential safety benefit. Lessons learned from recent operating experience—including the 2011 Fukushima accident—indicate that accidents involving multiple units at a shared site can occur with non-negligible frequency. Yet risk contributions from such scenarios are excluded by policy from safety goal evaluations—even for the nearly 60% of U.S. NPP sites that include multiple units. This research develops and applies methods for estimating risk metrics for comparison with safety goal QHOs using models from state-of-the-art consequence analyses to evaluate the effect of including multi-unit accident risk contributions in safety goal evaluations.

Climate variability of the last 1000 years in the NW Pacific: high resolution, multi-biomarker records from Lake Toyoni

The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) is an active component of the global climate system and has a profound social and economic impact in East Asia and its surrounding countries. Its impact on regional hydrological processes may influence society through industrial water supplies, food productivity and energy use. In order to predict future rates of climate change, reliable and accurate reconstructions of regional temperature and rainfall are required from all over the world to test climate models and better predict future climate variability. Hokkaido is a region which has limited palaeo-climate data and is sensitive to climate change. Instrumental data show that the climate in Hokkaido is influenced by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), however, instrumental data is limited to the past ~150 years. Therefore down-core climate reconstructions, prior to instrumental records, are required to provide a better understanding of the long-term behaviour of the climate drivers (e.g. the EAM, Westerlies, and teleconnections) in this region. The present study develops multi-proxy reconstructions to determine past climatic and hydrologic variability in Japan over the past 1000 years and aid in understanding the effects of the EAM and the Westerlies independently and interactively. A 250-cm long sediment core from Lake Toyoni, Hokkaido was retrieved to investigate terrestrial and aquatic input, lake temperature and hydrological changes over the past 1000-years within Lake Toyoni and its catchment using X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) data, alkenone palaeothermometry, the molecular and hydrogen isotopic composition of higher plant waxes (δD(HPW)). Here, we conducted the first survey for alkenone biomarkers in eight lakes in the Hokkaido, Japan. We detected the occurrence of alkenones within the sediments of Lake Toyoni. We present the first lacustrine alkenone record from Japan, including genetic analysis of the alkenone producer. C37 alkenone concentrations in surface sediments are 18µg C37 g−1 of dry sediment and the dominant alkenone is C37:4. 18S rDNA analysis revealed the presence of a single alkenone producer in Lake Toyoni and thus a single calibration is used for reconstructing lake temperature based on alkenone unsaturation patterns. Temperature reconstructions over the past 1000 years suggest that lake water temperatures varies between 8 and 19°C which is in line with water temperature changes observed in the modern Lake Toyoni. The alkenone-based temperature reconstruction provides evidence for the variability of the EAM over the past 1000 years. The δD(HPW) suggest that the large fluctuations (∼40‰) represent changes in temperature and source precipitation in this region, which is ultimately controlled by the EAM system and therefore a proxy for the EAM system. In order to complement the biomarker reconstructions, the XRF data strengthen the lake temperature and hydrological reconstructions by providing information on past productivity, which is controlled by the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) and wind input into Lake Toyoni, which is controlled by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and the Westerlies. By combining the data generated from XRF, alkenone palaeothermometry and the δD(HPW) reconstructions, we provide valuable information on the EAM and the Westerlies, including; the timing of intensification and weakening, the teleconnections influencing them and the relationship between them. During the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), we find that the EASM dominated and the EAWM was suppressed, whereas, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), the influence of the EAWM dominated with time periods of increased EASM and Westerlies intensification. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influenced the EAM; a strong EASM occurred during El Niño conditions and a strong EAWM occurred during La Niña. The North Atlantic Oscillation, on the other hand, was a key driver of the Westerlies intensification; strengthening of the Westerlies during a positive NAO phase and weakening of the Westerlies during a negative NAO phase. A key finding from this study is that our data support an anti-phase relationship between the EASM and the EAWM (e.g. the intensification of the EASM and weakening of the EAWM and vice versa) and that the EAWM and the Westerlies vary independently from each other, rather than coincide as previously suggested in other studies.

Exact and heuristic algorithms for the integrated planning of multi-energy systems

The aim of this thesis is to present exact and heuristic algorithms for the integrated planning of multi-energy systems. The idea is to disaggregate the energy system, starting first with its core the Central Energy System, and then to proceed towards the Decentral part. Therefore, a mathematical model for the generation expansion operations to optimize the performance of a Central Energy System system is first proposed. To ensure that the proposed generation operations are compatible with the network, some extensions of the existing network are considered as well. All these decisions are evaluated both from an economic viewpoint and from an environmental perspective, as specific constraints related to greenhouse gases emissions are imposed in the formulation. Then, the thesis presents an optimization model for solar organic Rankine cycle in the context of transactive energy trading. In this study, the impact that this technology can have on the peer-to-peer trading application in renewable based community microgrids is inspected. Here the consumer becomes a prosumer and engages actively in virtual trading with other prosumers at the distribution system level. Moreover, there is an investigation of how different technological parameters of the solar Organic Rankine Cycle may affect the final solution. Finally, the thesis introduces a tactical optimization model for the maintenance operations’ scheduling phase of a Combined Heat and Power plant. Specifically, two types of cleaning operations are considered, i.e., online cleaning and offline cleaning. Furthermore, a piecewise linear representation of the electric efficiency variation curve is included. Given the challenge of solving the tactical management model, a heuristic algorithm is proposed. The heuristic works by solving the daily operational production scheduling problem, based on the final consumer’s demand and on the electricity prices. The aggregate information from the operational problem is used to derive maintenance decisions at a tactical level.