La constitució de la naturalesa moral de l'home

En aquest treball filosòfic pretenem reflexionar sobre l'origen natural del fet moral, tot fent una comparació amb fets culturals, com ara, els Drets Humans o la mutilació genital femenina. La conclusió és que la moral es basa en el sentit dels comportaments més que no els comportaments en si mateixos.

Ètica de la benevolència : Reflexions sobre el pensament moral de Robert Spaemann

Qui és Robert Spaemann?, en què consisteix l'ètica de la benevolència?, quina correlació hi ha entre la visió antropològica d'aquest filòsof i les seves propostes ètiques? El treball vol respondre aquestes i altres preguntes sobre aquest filòsof i docent, especialitzat en filosofia pràctica, que ha rebut reconeixements arreu, tot i que encara és poc conegut en el nostre país.

Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance.

Sobre geografía moral

Els geògrafs s’inclouen tant en el camp de les ciències de la terra com en el de les ciències socials, tot i que també es poden considerar filòsofs morals, perquè es preocupen i s’interessen pels valors, els costums i les aspiracions humanes de no només limitar-se a sobreviure, sinó també d’aconseguir una vida fructuosa i agradable. En aquest intent per aconseguir una bona vida, els éssers humans han hagut d’organitzar-se i servir-se del poder, amb el qual és fàcil, per altra banda, cometre abusos contra els més febles i també contra la natura. El vessant moral és inevitable en qualsevol detallada consideració de la realitat humana. Aquest article pretén explorar l’esmentat vessant en societats senzilles i complexes, és a dir, tant entre els pobles caçadors-recol·lectors com en aquelles cultures més sofisticades que han transformat el camp, el jardí i la ciutat

Inference of distributional parameters from compositional samples containing nondetects

Low concentrations of elements in geochemical analyses have the peculiarity of beingcompositional data and, for a given level of significance, are likely to be beyond thecapabilities of laboratories to distinguish between minute concentrations and completeabsence, thus preventing laboratories from reporting extremely low concentrations of theanalyte. Instead, what is reported is the detection limit, which is the minimumconcentration that conclusively differentiates between presence and absence of theelement. A spatially distributed exhaustive sample is employed in this study to generateunbiased sub-samples, which are further censored to observe the effect that differentdetection limits and sample sizes have on the inference of population distributionsstarting from geochemical analyses having specimens below detection limit (nondetects).The isometric logratio transformation is used to convert the compositional data in thesimplex to samples in real space, thus allowing the practitioner to properly borrow fromthe large source of statistical techniques valid only in real space. The bootstrap method isused to numerically investigate the reliability of inferring several distributionalparameters employing different forms of imputation for the censored data. The casestudy illustrates that, in general, best results are obtained when imputations are madeusing the distribution best fitting the readings above detection limit and exposes theproblems of other more widely used practices. When the sample is spatially correlated, itis necessary to combine the bootstrap with stochastic simulation

Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

Le théâtre moral de la vie humaine , représentée en plus de cent tableaux divers tirez du poëte Horace par le sieur Otho Venius, et expliquez en autant de discours moraux par le sieur de Gomberville. Avec la table du philosophe Cebes

Comprend : [Epigramma] ; La Table

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Adverse selection, moral hazard, and outlier payment policy

In this article, we analyze the rationale for introducing outlier payments into a prospective payment system for hospitals under adverse selection and moral hazard. The payer has only two instruments: a fixed price for patients whose treatment cost is below a threshold and a cost-sharing rule for outlier patients. We show that a fixed-price policy is optimal when the hospital is sufficiently benevolent. When the hospital is weakly benevolent, a mixed policy solving a trade-off between rent extraction, efficiency, and dumping deterrence must be preferred. We show how the optimal combination of fixed price and partially cost-based payment depends on the degree of benevolence of the hospital, the social cost of public funds, and the distribution of patients severity. [Authors]

Corrupção nas organizações privadas: análise da percepção moral segundo gênero, idade e grau de instrução

A corrupção organizacional é um fenômeno de natureza sistêmica, pode ser abordada de muitas formas e, entre essas, na óptica da literatura sobre compliance, é entendida como a reflexão sobre as causas e a mitigação da corrupção, bem como sobre os instrumentos para a promoção de ambientes éticos. Na base da compliance está a percepção moral do indivíduo quando exposto aos dilemas éticos. O objetivo no presente trabalho é avaliar o impacto do nível de instrução, da idade e do gênero na percepção moral nas organizações. Para essa finalidade, são utilizados dados secundários, cedidos pela ICTS Global, empresa internacional especializada em redução de riscos ao patrimônio, reputação, informações e vida humana. Realizam-se análises estatísticas exploratórias procurando as relações entre as variáveis indicadoras do índice de análise de aderência à ética empresarial (AAEE) da ICTS Global. Trata-se de análise descritiva baseada em amostra não probabilística por conveniência, realizada entre os anos de 2004 e 2008, com funcionários e candidatos de 74 empresas privadas situadas no Brasil; o número final de indivíduos pesquisados totalizou 7.574. Os resultados indicam que a variável instrução exerce maior influência nos indicadores de percepção moral: quanto menor o grau de instrução, menor a percepção do que é errado. Na análise detalhada dos indicadores de percepção moral, os resultados mostram diferenças comparativas interessantes conforme os perfis dos profissionais e as variáveis analisadas (gênero, idade e grau de instrução).