Urban change monitoring using GIS and remote sensing tools in Kathmandu valley (Nepal)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Distributed controllers modeling through Petri nets with multi-asynchronous-channels

This paper proposes the concept of multi-asynchronous-channel for Petri nets. Petri nets extended with multi-asynchronous-channels and time-domains support the specification of distributed controllers, where each controller has a synchronous execution but the global system is asynchronous (globally-asynchronous locally-synchronous systems). Each multi-asynchronous-channel specify the interaction between two or more distributed controllers. These channels, together with the time-domain concept, ensure the creation of network-independent models to support implementations using heterogeneous communication networks. The created models support not only the systems documentation but also their validation and implementation through simulation tools, verification tools, and automatic code generators. An application example illustrates the use of a Petri net class extended with the proposed channels. © 2015 IEEE.

A calculus for modeling and analyzing conversations in service-oriented computing

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Modeling Vegetable Fractals by means of Fractional-order Equations

This paper characterizes four ‘fractal vegetables’: (i) cauliflower (brassica oleracea var. Botrytis); (ii) broccoli (brassica oleracea var. italica); (iii) round cabbage (brassica oleracea var. capitata) and (iv) Brussels sprout (brassica oleracea var. gemmifera), by means of electrical impedance spectroscopy and fractional calculus tools. Experimental data is approximated using fractional-order models and the corresponding parameters are determined with a genetic algorithm. The Havriliak-Negami five-parameter model fits well into the data, demonstrating that classical formulae can constitute simple and reliable models to characterize biological structures.

Environmental modeling with precision navigation using ROAZ autonomous surface vehicle

The use of robotic vehicles for environmental modeling is discussed. This paper presents diverse results in autonomous marine missions with the ROAZ autonomous surface vehicle. The vehicle can perform autonomous missions while gathering marine data with high inertial and positioning precision. The underwater world is an, economical and environmental, asset that need new tools to study and preserve it. ROAZ is used in marine environment missions since it can sense and monitor the surface and underwater scenarios. Is equipped with a diverse set of sensors, cameras and underwater sonars that generate 3D environmental models. It is used for study the marine life and possible underwater wrecks that can pollute or be a danger to marine navigation. The 3D model and integration of multibeam and sidescan sonars represent a challenge in nowadays. Adding that it is important that robots can explore an area and make decisions based on their surroundings and goals. Regard that, autonomous robotic systems can relieve human beings of repetitive and dangerous tasks.

Modeling and visualization of medical anesthesiology acts

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Process simulation support in BPM tools: The case of BPMN

Due to the increasing acceptance of BPM, nowadays BPM tools are extensively used in organizations. Core to BPM are the process modeling languages, of which BPMN is the one that has been receiving most attention these days. Once a business process is described using BPMN, one can use a process simulation approach in order to find its optimized form. In this context, the simulation of business processes, such as those defined in BPMN, appears as an obvious way of improving processes. This paper analyzes the business process modeling and simulation areas, identifying the elements that must be present in the BPMN language in order to allow processes described in BPMN to be simulated. During this analysis a set of existing BPM tools, which support BPMN, are compared regarding their limitations in terms of simulation support.

Modeling microbes: New methods for integrated metabolic and regulatory network reconstruction

PhD Thesis in Bioengineering

A relational algebra approach to ETL modeling

The MAP-i Doctoral Programme in Informatics, of the Universities of Minho, Aveiro and Porto

Development of computational tools for the integrated analysis of DNA microarray data with applications in cancer research

The MAP-i Doctoral Program of the Universities of Minho, Aveiro and Porto

Addressing Sea Surface Salinity retrieval at different spatial resolution. Feasibility study using OCCAM data within SEPS simulator and L2 processor tools

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la National Oceanography Centre of Southampton (NOCS), Gran Bretanya, entre maig i juliol del 2006. La possibilitat d’obtenir una estimació precissa de la salinitat marina (SSS) és important per a investigar i predir l’extensió del fenòmen del canvi climàtic. La missió Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) va ser seleccionada per l’Agència Espacial Europea (ESA) per a obtenir mapes de salinitat de la superfície marina a escala global i amb un temps de revisita petit. Abans del llençament de SMOS es preveu l’anàlisi de la variabilitat horitzontal de la SSS i del potencial de les dades recuperades a partir de mesures de SMOS per a reproduir comportaments oceanogràfics coneguts. L’objectiu de tot plegat és emplenar el buit existent entre les fonts de dades d’entrada/auxiliars fiables i les eines desenvolupades per a simular i processar les dades adquirides segons la configuració de SMOS. El SMOS End-to-end Performance Simulator (SEPS) és un simulador adhoc desenvolupat per la Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) per a generar dades segons la configuració de SMOS. Es va utilitzar dades d’entrada a SEPS procedents del projecte Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modeling (OCCAM), utilitzat al NOCS, a diferents resolucions espacials. Modificant SEPS per a poder fer servir com a entrada les dades OCCAM es van obtenir dades de temperatura de brillantor simulades durant un mes amb diferents observacions ascendents que cobrien la zona seleccionada. Les tasques realitzades durant l’estada a NOCS tenien la finalitat de proporcionar una tècnica fiable per a realitzar la calibració externa i per tant cancel•lar el bias, una metodologia per a promitjar temporalment les diferents adquisicions durant les observacions ascendents, i determinar la millor configuració de la funció de cost abans d’explotar i investigar les posibiltats de les dades SEPS/OCCAM per a derivar la SSS recuperada amb patrons d’alta resolució.

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

GeoKernels: Modeling of Spatial Data on GeoManifolds

This paper presents a review of methodology for semi-supervised modeling with kernel methods, when the manifold assumption is guaranteed to be satisfied. It concerns environmental data modeling on natural manifolds, such as complex topographies of the mountainous regions, where environmental processes are highly influenced by the relief. These relations, possibly regionalized and nonlinear, can be modeled from data with machine learning using the digital elevation models in semi-supervised kernel methods. The range of the tools and methodological issues discussed in the study includes feature selection and semisupervised Support Vector algorithms. The real case study devoted to data-driven modeling of meteorological fields illustrates the discussed approach.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.