896 resultados para model confidence set
Resumo:
This data set includes measurements from moored instruments from the Faroe Bank Channel overflow region in the period between 28 May 2012 and 5 June 2013. The data set was collected under the project entitled "Faroe Bank Channel Overflow: Dynamics and Mixing Research", with an objective to describe the structure and variability of the dense oceanic overflow plume from the Faroe Bank Channel on daily to seasonal timescales. Mooring arrays were deployed in two sections: located 25 km downstream of the main sill, in the channel that geographically confines the overflow plume at both edges (section C), and 60 km further downstream, over the slope (section S). The measurements delivered with this data set include hourly-averaged data gridded on 5-m vertical separation, after accounting for mooring knock downs using a mooring dynamics model. Complete set of mooring drawings and detailed description can be found in the cruise report (Fer et al. 2016, PDF provided). The article by Ullgren et al. (2016) gives further details on processing of the data set and presents the data set.
Resumo:
At least since the seminal works of Jacob Mincer, labor economists have sought to understand how students make higher education investment decisions. Mincer’s original work seeks to understand how students decide how much education to accrue; subsequent work by various authors seeks to understand how students choose where to attend college, what field to major in, and whether to drop out of college.
Broadly speaking, this rich sub-field of literature contributes to society in two ways: First, it provides a better understanding of important social behaviors. Second, it helps policymakers anticipate the responses of students when evaluating various policy reforms.
While research on the higher education investment decisions of students has had an enormous impact on our understanding of society and has shaped countless education policies, students are only one interested party in the higher education landscape. In the jargon of economists, students represent only the `demand side’ of higher education---customers who are choosing options from a set of available alternatives. Opposite students are instructors and administrators who represent the `supply side’ of higher education---those who decide which options are available to students.
For similar reasons, it is also important to understand how individuals on the supply side of education make decisions: First, this provides a deeper understanding of the behaviors of important social institutions. Second, it helps policymakers anticipate the responses of instructors and administrators when evaluating various reforms. However, while there is substantial literature understanding decisions made on the demand side of education, there is far less attention paid to decisions on the supply side of education.
This dissertation uses empirical evidence to better understand how instructors and administrators make decisions and the implications of these decisions for students.
In the first chapter, I use data from Duke University and a Bayesian model of correlated learning to measure the signal quality of grades across academic fields. The correlated feature of the model allows grades in one academic field to signal ability in all other fields allowing me to measure both ‘own category' signal quality and ‘spillover' signal quality. Estimates reveal a clear division between information rich Science, Engineering, and Economics grades and less informative Humanities and Social Science grades. In many specifications, information spillovers are so powerful that precise Science, Engineering, and Economics grades are more informative about Humanities and Social Science abilities than Humanities and Social Science grades. This suggests students who take engineering courses during their Freshman year make more informed specialization decisions later in college.
In the second chapter, I use data from the University of Central Arkansas to understand how universities decide which courses to offer and how much to spend on instructors for these courses. Course offerings and instructor characteristics directly affect the courses students choose and the value they receive from these choices. This chapter reveals the university preferences over these student outcomes which best explain observed course offerings and instructors. This allows me to assess whether university incentives are aligned with students, to determine what alternative university choices would be preferred by students, and to illustrate how a revenue neutral tax/subsidy policy can induce a university to make these student-best decisions.
In the third chapter, co-authored with Thomas Ahn, Peter Arcidiacono, and Amy Hopson, we use data from the University of Kentucky to understand how instructors choose grading policies. In this chapter, we estimate an equilibrium model in which instructors choose grading policies and students choose courses and study effort given grading policies. In this model, instructors set both a grading intercept and a return on ability and effort. This builds a rich link between the grading policy decisions of instructors and the course choices of students. We use estimates of this model to infer what preference parameters best explain why instructors chose estimated grading policies. To illustrate the importance of these supply side decisions, we show changing grading policies can substantially reduce the gender gap in STEM enrollment.
Resumo:
Magnetically-induced forces on the inertial masses on-board LISA Path finder are expected to be one of the dominant contributions to the mission noise budget, accounting for up to 40%. The origin of this disturbance is the coupling of the residual magnetization and susceptibility of the test masses with the environmental magnetic field. In order to fully understand this important part of the noise model, a set of coils and magnetometers are integrated as a part of the diagnostics subsystem. During operations a sequence of magnetic excitations will be applied to precisely determine the coupling of the magnetic environment to the test mass displacement using the on-board magnetometers. Since no direct measurement of the magnetic field in the test mass position will be available, an extrapolation of the magnetic measurements to the test mass position will be carried out as a part of the data analysis activities. In this paper we show the first results on the magnetic experiments during an end-to-end LISA Path finder simulation, and we describe the methods under development to map the magnetic field on-board.
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The main purpose of this study is to present an alternative benchmarking approach that can be used by national regulators of utilities. It is widely known that the lack of sizeable data sets limits the choice of the benchmarking method and the specification of the model to set price controls within incentive-based regulation. Ill-posed frontier models are the problem that some national regulators have been facing. Maximum entropy estimators are useful in the estimation of such ill-posed models, in particular in models exhibiting small sample sizes, collinearity and non-normal errors, as well as in models where the number of parameters to be estimated exceeds the number of observations available. The empirical study involves a sample data used by the Portuguese regulator of the electricity sector to set the parameters for the electricity distribution companies in the regulatory period of 2012-2014. DEA and maximum entropy methods are applied and the efficiency results are compared.
Resumo:
Numeric set watermarking is a way to provide ownership proof for numerical data. Numerical data can be considered to be primitives for multimedia types such as images and videos since they are organized forms of numeric information. Thereby, the capability to watermark numerical data directly implies the capability to watermark multimedia objects and discourage information theft on social networking sites and the Internet in general. Unfortunately, there has been very limited research done in the field of numeric set watermarking due to underlying limitations in terms of number of items in the set and LSBs in each item available for watermarking. In 2009, Gupta et al. proposed a numeric set watermarking model that embeds watermark bits in the items of the set based on a hash value of the items’ most significant bits (MSBs). If an item is chosen for watermarking, a watermark bit is embedded in the least significant bits, and the replaced bit is inserted in the fractional value to provide reversibility. The authors show their scheme to be resilient against the traditional subset addition, deletion, and modification attacks as well as secondary watermarking attacks. In this paper, we present a bucket attack on this watermarking model. The attack consists of creating buckets of items with the same MSBs and determine if the items of the bucket carry watermark bits. Experimental results show that the bucket attack is very strong and destroys the entire watermark with close to 100% success rate. We examine the inherent weaknesses in the watermarking model of Gupta et al. that leave it vulnerable to the bucket attack and propose potential safeguards that can provide resilience against this attack.
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This chapter provides an introduction to the use of pedagogical patterns in capturing and sharing educational design experience. In higher education, helping students to learn to engage in productive reflection presents a complex set of challenges. Delicate balances must be found: too little structure and support for students’ reflective work can leave them floundering; too much, and some will remain dependent. Moreover, this is a dynamic teaching problem – scaffolding needs to be adjusted as students develop confidence and capability, which they will do at different rates. The model presented in this chapter embraces the three main elements that teachers can legitimately design, or help set in place, to support their students’ reflective activity: good tasks, the right tools, and appropriate divisions of labour. It delineates a complex, shifting architecture of tasks, tools and people, activities and outcomes associated with reflective learning. It shows how the designable elements of this complex mix can be described in patterns and pattern languages, which then become design resources for teachers’ own action, reflection and professional development.
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We propose a new model for estimating the size of a population from successive catches taken during a removal experiment. The data from these experiments often have excessive variation, known as overdispersion, as compared with that predicted by the multinomial model. The new model allows catchability to vary randomly among samplings, which accounts for overdispersion. When the catchability is assumed to have a beta distribution, the likelihood function, which is refered to as beta-multinomial, is derived, and hence the maximum likelihood estimates can be evaluated. Simulations show that in the presence of extravariation in the data, the confidence intervals have been substantially underestimated in previous models (Leslie-DeLury, Moran) and that the new model provides more reliable confidence intervals. The performance of these methods was also demonstrated using two real data sets: one with overdispersion, from smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and the other without overdispersion, from rat (Rattus rattus).
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"We report on a search for the standard-model Higgs boson in pp collisions at s=1.96 TeV using an integrated luminosity of 2.0 fb(-1). We look for production of the Higgs boson decaying to a pair of bottom quarks in association with a vector boson V (W or Z) decaying to quarks, resulting in a four-jet final state. Two of the jets are required to have secondary vertices consistent with B-hadron decays. We set the first 95% confidence level upper limit on the VH production cross section with V(-> qq/qq('))H(-> bb) decay for Higgs boson masses of 100-150 GeV/c(2) using data from run II at the Fermilab Tevatron. For m(H)=120 GeV/c(2), we exclude cross sections larger than 38 times the standard-model prediction."
Resumo:
"We report on a search for the standard-model Higgs boson in pp collisions at s=1.96 TeV using an integrated luminosity of 2.0 fb(-1). We look for production of the Higgs boson decaying to a pair of bottom quarks in association with a vector boson V (W or Z) decaying to quarks, resulting in a four-jet final state. Two of the jets are required to have secondary vertices consistent with B-hadron decays. We set the first 95% confidence level upper limit on the VH production cross section with V(-> qq/qq('))H(-> bb) decay for Higgs boson masses of 100-150 GeV/c(2) using data from run II at the Fermilab Tevatron. For m(H)=120 GeV/c(2), we exclude cross sections larger than 38 times the standard-model prediction."
Resumo:
We present a search for standard model Higgs boson production in association with a W boson in proton-antiproton collisions at a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The search employs data collected with the CDF II detector that correspond to an integrated luminosity of approximately 1.9 inverse fb. We select events consistent with a signature of a single charged lepton, missing transverse energy, and two jets. Jets corresponding to bottom quarks are identified with a secondary vertex tagging method, a jet probability tagging method, and a neural network filter. We use kinematic information in an artificial neural network to improve discrimination between signal and background compared to previous analyses. The observed number of events and the neural network output distributions are consistent with the standard model background expectations, and we set 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross section times branching fraction ranging from 1.2 to 1.1 pb or 7.5 to 102 times the standard model expectation for Higgs boson masses from 110 to $150 GeV/c^2, respectively.
Resumo:
Three dimensional digital model of a representative human kidney is needed for a surgical simulator that is capable of simulating a laparoscopic surgery involving kidney. Buying a three dimensional computer model of a representative human kidney, or reconstructing a human kidney from an image sequence using commercial software, both involve (sometimes significant amount of) money. In this paper, author has shown that one can obtain a three dimensional surface model of human kidney by making use of images from the Visible Human Data Set and a few free software packages (ImageJ, ITK-SNAP, and MeshLab in particular). Images from the Visible Human Data Set, and the software packages used here, both do not cost anything. Hence, the practice of extracting the geometry of a representative human kidney for free, as illustrated in the present work, could be a free alternative to the use of expensive commercial software or to the purchase of a digital model.
Resumo:
Mass balance between metal and electrolytic solution, separated by a moving interface, in stable pit growth results in a set of governing equations which are solved for concentration field and interface position (pit boundary evolution), which requires only three inputs, namely the solid metal concentration, saturation concentration of the dissolved metal ions and diffusion coefficient. A combined eXtended Finite Element Model (XFEM) and level set method is developed in this paper. The extended finite element model handles the jump discontinuity in the metal concentrations at the interface, by using discontinuous-derivative enrichment formulation for concentration discontinuity at the interface. This eliminates the requirement of using front conforming mesh and re-meshing after each time step as in conventional finite element method. A numerical technique known as level set method tracks the position of the moving interface and updates it over time. Numerical analysis for pitting corrosion of stainless steel 304 is presented. The above proposed method is validated by comparing the numerical results with experimental results, exact solutions and some other approximate solutions.
Resumo:
Mass balance between metal and electrolytic solution, separated by a moving interface, in stable pit growth results in a set of governing equations which are solved for concentration field and interface position (pit boundary evolution). The interface experiences a jump discontinuity in metal concentration. The extended finite-element model (XFEM) handles this jump discontinuity by using discontinuous-derivative enrichment formulation, eliminating the requirement of using front conforming mesh and re-meshing after each time step as in the conventional finite-element method. However, prior interface location is required so as to solve the governing equations for concentration field for which a numerical technique, the level set method, is used for tracking the interface explicitly and updating it over time. The level set method is chosen as it is independent of shape and location of the interface. Thus, a combined XFEM and level set method is developed in this paper. Numerical analysis for pitting corrosion of stainless steel 304 is presented. The above proposed model is validated by comparing the numerical results with experimental results, exact solutions and some other approximate solutions. An empirical model for pitting potential is also derived based on the finite-element results. Studies show that pitting profile depends on factors such as ion concentration, solution pH and temperature to a large extent. Studying the individual and combined effects of these factors on pitting potential is worth knowing, as pitting potential directly influences corrosion rate.