The effects and side-effects of statistics education: Psychology students’ (mis-)conceptions of probability

In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists’ prediction who propose that education reduces misconceptions in general. They also predict that students with higher cognitive ability and higher need for cognition are less susceptible to biases. In Experiments 1 and 2 we found that the equiprobability bias increased with statistics education, and it was negatively correlated with students’ cognitive abilities. The representativeness heuristic was mostly unaffected by education, and it was also unrelated to cognitive abilities. In Experiment 3 we demonstrated through an instruction manipulation (by asking participants to think logically vs. rely on their intuitions) that the reason for these differences was that these biases originated in different cognitive processes.

Optimization of Composite Structures to Delay Mode Jump Instabilities

Numerous studies have shown that postbuckling stiffened panels may undergo abrupt changes in buckled mode
shape when loaded in uniaxial compression. This phenomenon is often referred to as a mode jump or secondary
instability. The resulting sudden release of stored energy may initiate damage in vulnerable regions within a
structure, for example, at the skin-stiffener interface of a stiffened composite panel. Current design practice is to
remove a mode jump by increasing the skin thickness of the postbuckling region. A layup optimization methodology,
based on a genetic algorithm, is presented, which delays the onset of secondary instabilities in a composite structure
while maintaining a constant weight and subject to a number of design constraints. A finite element model was
developed of a stiffened panel’s skin bay, which exhibited secondary instabilities. An automated numerical routine
extracted information directly from the finite element displacement results to detect the onset of initial buckling and
secondary instabilities. This routine was linked to the genetic algorithm to find a revised layup for the skin bay, within
appropriate design constraints, to delay the onset of secondary instabilities. The layup optimization methodology,
resulted in a panel that had a higher buckling load, prebuckling stiffness, and secondary instability load than the
baseline design.

Lay-up optimization of composite plates to delay mode-jump instabilities

Experimental and numerical studies have shown that the occurrence of abrupt secondary instabilities, or mode-jumps, in a postbuckling stiffened composite panel may initiate structural failure. This study presents an optimisation methodology, using a genetic algorithm and finite element analysis for the lay-up optimisation of postbuckling composite plates to delay the onset of mode-jump instabilities. A simple and novel approach for detecting modejumps is proposed, based on the RMS value of out-of-plane pseudo-velocities at a number of locations distributed over the postbuckling structure

Jump

A feature film. I worked as script doctor on the film and wrote the final draft, for which I am credited. The film tells the story of New Year's Eve in Derry/Londonderry and a young woman's thwarted attempts to throw herself off the Foyle Bridge.

Summary of the Snowmastodon Project Special Volume: A high-elevation, multi-proxy biotic and environmental record of MIS 6-4 from the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site, Snowmass Village, Colorado, USA

In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean-atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010-2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between similar to 140 and 55 lea, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and bighorn sheep. In addition, the site contained more than 26,000 bones from at least 30 species of small animals including salamanders, otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds. The combination of macro- and micro-vertebrates, invertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic plant macrofossils, a detailed pollen record, and a robust, directly dated stratigraphic framework shows that high-elevation ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are climatically sensitive and varied dramatically throughout MIS 5 

An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Properties of Hydraulic Jump over Apparent Corrugated Beds

The characteristics of hydraulic jumps were investigated for three shapes of artificial apparent corrugated beds in a horizontal rectangular flume. Rectangular, triangular, and circular-shaped tire waste corrugated beds were used. Froude number ranged from 2.75 to 4.25. The experimental observations included water surface profiles, bed shear stress, and the hydraulic jump length. Results showed that the shape of the corrugation had relatively insignificant effects on hydraulic jump properties for small Froude numbers. The rectangular, triangular, and circular-shaped corrugated beds reduced the hydraulic jump length by up to 7, 10, and 11%, respectively. The corrugated bed also reduced the tailwater depth by up to 11.5% compared with the smooth bed. The apparent conditions of corrugated bed reduced the hydraulic jump relative length and height by about 0.4 and 0.5, respectively. The circular-shaped tire waste was found to be more effective in reducing the length and depth of the hydraulic jump.

Valuing equity-linked death benefits in jump diffusion models

The paper is motivated by the valuation problem of guaranteed minimum death benefits in various equity-linked products. At the time of death, a benefit payment is due. It may depend not only on the price of a stock or stock fund at that time, but also on prior prices. The problem is to calculate the expected discounted value of the benefit payment. Because the distribution of the time of death can be approximated by a combination of exponential distributions, it suffices to solve the problem for an exponentially distributed time of death. The stock price process is assumed to be the exponential of a Brownian motion plus an independent compound Poisson process whose upward and downward jumps are modeled by combinations (or mixtures) of exponential distributions. Results for exponential stopping of a Lévy process are used to derive a series of closed-form formulas for call, put, lookback, and barrier options, dynamic fund protection, and dynamic withdrawal benefit with guarantee. We also discuss how barrier options can be used to model lapses and surrenders.