The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

Application of data assimilation to ocean and climate prediction

Ocean prediction systems are now able to analyse and predict temperature, salinity and velocity structures within the ocean by assimilating measurements of the ocean’s temperature and salinity into physically based ocean models. Data assimilation combines current estimates of state variables, such as temperature and salinity, from a computational model with measurements of the ocean and atmosphere in order to improve forecasts and reduce uncertainty in the forecast accuracy. Data assimilation generally works well with ocean models away from the equator but has been found to induce vigorous and unrealistic overturning circulations near the equator. A pressure correction method was developed at the University of Reading and the Met Office to control these circulations using ideas from control theory and an understanding of equatorial dynamics. The method has been used for the last 10 years in seasonal forecasting and ocean prediction systems at the Met Office and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). It has been an important element in recent re-analyses of the ocean heat uptake that mitigates climate change.

Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state.

Lead and aluminum bonding in Pb-Al metaphosphate glasses

The bonding properties of cations in phosphate glasses determine many short- and medium-range structural features in the glass network, hence influencing bulk properties. In this work, Pb-Al-metaphosphate glasses (1 - x)Pb-(PO(3))(2)center dot xAI(PO(3))(3) with 0 <= - x <= 1 were analyzed to determine the effect of the substitution of Pb by Al on the glass structure in the metaphosphate composition. The glass transition temperature and density were measured as a function of the Al concentration. The vibrational and structural properties were probed by Raman spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance of (31)P, (27)Al, and (207)Pb. Aluminum incorporates homogeneously in the glass creating a stiffer and less packed network. The average coordination number for Al decreases from 5.9 to 5.0 as x increases from 0.1 to 1, indicating more covalent Al-O bonds. The coordination number of Pb in these glasses is greater than 8, showing an increasing ionic behavior for compositions richer in Al. A quantitative analysis of the phosphate speciation shows definite trends in the bonding of AlO(n) groups and phosphate tetrahedra. In glasses with x < 0.48, phosphate groups share preferentially only one nonbridging O corner with an AlO(n) coordination polyhedron. For x > 0.48 more than one nonbridging O can be linked to AlO(n) polyhedra. There is no corner sharing of O between AlO(n) and PbO(n) polyhedra nor between AlO(n) themselves throughout the compositional range. The PbO(n) coordination polyhedra show considerable nonbridging O sharing, with each O participating in the coordination sphere of at least two Pb. The bonding preferences determined for Al are consistent with the behavior observed in Na-Al and Ca-Al metaphosphates, indicating this may be a general behavior for ternary phosphate glasses.

Chemisorbed and physisorbed Structures for 1,10-Phenanthroline and Dipyrido[3,2-a:2',3'-c]phenazine on Au(111)

Scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) images of 1,10-phenanthroline (PHEN) and dipyrido[3,2-a:2‘,3‘-c]phenazine (DPPZ) on Au(111) are recorded using both in situ and ex situ techniques. The images of PHEN depict regimes of physisorption and chemisorption, whereas DPPZ is only physisorbed. All physisorbed structures are not pitted and fluctuate dynamically, involving aligned (4 × 4) surface domains with short-range (ca. 20 molecules) order for PHEN but unaligned chains with medium-range (ca. 100 molecules) order for DPPZ. In contrast, the chemisorbed PHEN monolayers remain stable for days, are associated with surface pitting, and form a (4 × √13)R46° lattice with long-range order. The density of pitted atoms on large gold terraces is shown to match the density of chemisorbed molecules, suggesting that gold adatoms link PHEN to the surface. For PHEN, chemisorbed and physisorbed adsorbate structures are optimized using plane-wave density-functional theory (DFT) calculations for the surface structure. Realistic binding energies are then obtained adding dispersive corrections determined using complete-active-space self-consistent field calculations using second-order perturbation theory (CASPT2) applied to cluster-interaction models. A fine balance between the large adsorbate−adsorbate dispersive forces, adsorbate−surface dispersive forces, gold ligation energy, and surface mining energy is shown to dictate the observed phenomena, leading to high surface mobility and substrate/surface lattice incommensurability. Increasing the magnitude of the dispersive forces through use of DPPZ, rather than PHEN, to disturb this balance produced physisorbed monolayers without pits and/or surface registration but with much longer-range order. Analogies are drawn with similar but poorly understood processes involved in the binding of thiols to Au(111).

Atom probe tomography investigation of heterogeneous short-range ordering in the 'komplex' phase state (K-state) of Fe-18Al (at.%)

We study an Fe-18Al (at.%) alloy after various thermal treatments at different times (24-336 h) and temperatures (250-1100 °C) to determine the nature of the so-called 'komplex' phase state (or "K-state"), which is common to other alloy systems having compositions at the boundaries of known order-disorder transitions and is characterised by heterogeneous short-range-ordering (SRO). This has been done by direct observation using atom probe tomography (APT), which reveals that nano-sized, ordered regions/particles do not exist. Also, by employing shell-based analysis of the three-dimensional atomic positions, we have determined chemically sensitive, generalised multicomponent short-range order (GM-SRO) parameters, which are compared with published pairwise SRO parameters derived from bulk, volume-averaged measurement techniques (e.g. X-ray and neutron scattering, Mössbauer spectroscopy) and combined ab-initio and Monte Carlo simulations. This analysis procedure has general relevance for other alloy systems where quantitative chemical-structure evaluation of local atomic environments is required to understand ordering and partial ordering phenomena that affect physical and mechanical properties.

Analyzing the CEMS intrapreneurial level using the GET2 test

This thesis is mainly focused on the intrapreneurial level of CEMS students around the world. Organizations are seeking to hire people with an entrepreneurial personality. This means that companies are looking for someone with similar psychological traits as entrepreneurs who are capable of influence positively in firm’s innovation. Therefore, the research question is “What is the CEMS intrapreneurial level?” The contribution of this thesis is to check whether CEMS students have high intrapreneurship level or not. In order to find out, the General measure Enterprising Tendency (GET) test was sent to these students. The main finding is that CEMS students have score which can located them in the Medium range, meaning they have an average level of intrapreneurship. Thus, it is possible to raise awareness on the intrapreneurial potential that they can achieve. Furthermore, this thesis hopes to grow a concern on this topic so that universities give more emphasis on it.

Er3+ as marker for order-disorder determination in the PbTiO3 system

Er3+ ions were added to the PbTiO3 network using the polymeric precursor method to characterize the order-disorder transformation found in this material by means of experimental and theoretical approach. The disordered and ordered material structures were studied by photoluminescence measurements, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and U-V-visible spectroscopy. The Er3+ ions served as a marker to identify the structural short-range order beginning in the PbTiO3 matrix. From photoluminescence results it was concluded that disordered PbTiO3 powders have a certain short range order in the network that are undetected by XRD measurements. The electronic structures were calculated by the ab initio periodic method in DFT level with the non-local B3LYP hybrid approximation for the Ti atom site interpretation using density of states (DOS) results. This analysis enabled understanding that Ti atom sphere coordination can create possible states for radioactive return and trap of electron-holes pair. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Residual and annual potassic fertilization for soybeans

There is a lack of long-term research on potassium fertilization for soybean in the tropical and subtropical soils of Brazil and the residual effect of the fertilizer has generally not been considered. An experiment was conducted in plots that had been fertilized with 0, 40, 80, 160 and 240 kg ha(-1) of K2O for 3 years on a Dark Red Latosol, loamy sand (Acrortox). The effects of annual or residual fertilization with those rates of K were studied for three additional years. Potassium was supplied as potassium chloride or potassium sulphate. Soil and leaf samples were taken annually. There was a residual effect of the nutrient, which provided for high yields up to the 3rd year with the highest rate of K. In order to maintain the K contents of the soil in the medium range and obtain at least 90% of the maximum grain yield, an annual application of 80 kg ha(-1) of K2O was necessary, irrespectively of the source. The highest soybean yields were always associated with K levels above 15 mg kg(-1) in the leaves and 1.2 mmol(c) dm(-3) in the soil.

Influence of the modifier on the short and long range disorder of stannate perovskites

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Interaction in culture medium of acttnomycetes and native fungi wtth rhizobia that form nodules in Neonotonia wighth lackley (perennial soybean)

The relationship between soil fungi and actinomycetes, with rhizobia that produce nodulation in Neonotonia wightii (perennial soybean) was studied in culture medium in order to obtain material to be used in mixed inoculations of this legume. A field experiment was designed to provide soil samples and isolate microorganisms belonging to these groups that are capable of interfering in the development of two selected rhizobium strains. Results show that the Bradyrhizobium strains used in the experiment, which are efficient in nodulation of Neonotonia wightii, are highly sensitive to substances produced in the culture medium by actinomycetes and fungi.

Local order of Pb1-xLaxZr0.40Ti 0.60O3 ferroelectric ceramic materials probed by X-ray absorption and Raman spectroscopies

This paper reports on the structural characterization of Pb 1-xLaxZr0.40Ti0.60O3 (PLZT) ferroelectric ceramic compositions prepared by the conventional solid state reaction method. X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) and Raman spectroscopy were used to probe the local structure of PLZT samples that exhibits a normal and relaxor ferroelectric behavior. From the Zr K-edge and Pb LIII-edge EXAFS spectra, a considerable dissymmetry of Zr and Pb sites was observed in all samples, including those showing a long-range order cubic symmetry and a relaxor behavior. The Raman spectroscopy results confirmed the existence of a local disorder in all PLZT samples through the observation of Raman active vibrational modes. The variation in the intensity of the E(TO 3) mode in the PLZT relaxor samples indicates that the process of correlation between nanodomains stabilizes at temperatures lower than T m. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Propriedades fotoluminescentes de PbMoO4 obtidos a partir dos métodos de coprecipitação e processamento hidrotérmico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Local order and magnetic field effects on the electronic properties of disordered binary alloys in the quantum site percolation limit

Electronic properties of disordered binary alloys are studied via the calculation of the average Density of States (DOS) in two and three dimensions. We propose a new approximate scheme that allows for the inclusion of local order effects in finite geometries and extrapolates the behavior of infinite systems following finite-size scaling ideas. We particularly investigate the limit of the Quantum Site Percolation regime described by a tight-binding Hamiltonian. This limit was chosen to probe the role of short range order (SRO) properties under extreme conditions. The method is numerically highly efficient and asymptotically exact in important limits, predicting the correct DOS structure as a function of the SRO parameters. Magnetic field effects can also be included in our model to study the interplay of local order and the shifted quantum interference driven by the field. The average DOS is highly sensitive to changes in the SRO properties and striking effects are observed when a magnetic field is applied near the segregated regime. The new effects observed are twofold: there is a reduction of the band width and the formation of a gap in the middle of the band, both as a consequence of destructive interference of electronic paths and the loss of coherence for particular values of the magnetic field. The above phenomena are periodic in the magnetic flux. For other limits that imply strong localization, the magnetic field produces minor changes in the structure of the average DOS. © World Scientific Publishing Company.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.