Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

The relationship between unsafe working conditions and workers’ behavior and their impacts on injury severity in the U.S.

Unsafe acts of workers (e.g. misjudgment, inappropriate operation) become the major root causes of construction accidents when they are combined with unsafe working conditions (e.g. working surface conditions, weather) on a construction site. The overarching goal of the research presented in this paper is to explore ways to prevent unsafe acts of workers and reduce the likelihood of construction accidents occurring. The study specifically aims to (1) understand the relationships between human behavior related and working condition related risk factors, (2) identify the significant behavior and condition factors and their impacts on accident types (e.g. struck by/against, caught in/between, falling, shock, inhalation/ingestion/absorption, respiratory failure) and injury severity (e.g. fatality, hospitalized, non-hospitalized), and (3) analyze the fundamental accident-injury relationship on how each accident type contributes to the injury severity. The study reviewed 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011. The large number of accident samples supported reliable statistical analyses. The analysis identified a total of 17 significant correlations between behavior and condition factors and distinguished key risk factors that highly impacted on the determination of accident types and injury severity. The research outcomes will assist safety managers to control specific unsafe acts of workers by eliminating the associated unsafe working conditions and vice versa. They also can prioritize risk factors and pay more attention to controlling them in order to achieve a safer working environment.

Safety impacts of alcohol and other drugs in construction : development of an industry policy and cultural change management program

There is increasing concern about the impact of employees‟ alcohol and other drug (AOD) consumption on workplace safety and performance, particularly within the construction industry. While most Australian jurisdictions have identified this as a critical safety issue, information is limited regarding the prevalence of AODs in the workplace and there is limited evidential guidance regarding how to effectively and efficiently address such an issue. The current research aims to scientifically evaluate the use of AODs within the Australian construction industry in order to reduce the potential resulting safety and performance impacts and engender a cultural change in the workforce - to render it unacceptable to arrive at a construction workplace with impaired judgement from AODs. The study will adopt qualitative and quantitative methods to firstly evaluate the extent of general AOD use in the industry. Secondly, the development of an appropriate industry policy will adopt a non-punitive and rehabilitative approach developed in consultation with employers and employees across the infrastructure and building sectors, with the aim it be adopted nationally for adoption at the construction workplace. Finally, an industry specific cultural change management program and implementation plan will be developed through a nationally collaborative approach. Final results indicate that a proportion of those sampled in the construction sector may be at risk of hazardous alcohol consumption. A total of 286 respondents (58%) scored above the cut-off cumulative score for risky or hazardous alcohol. Other drug use was also identified as a major issue. Results support the need for evidence-based, preventative educational initiatives that are tailored to the industry. This paper will discuss the final survey and interview results.

The governance of inter-organisational decision-making : understanding the impacts of informal networks on formal decision-making regimes in the Brisbane Airport region

Airports and cities inevitably recognise the value that each brings the other; however, the separation in decision-making authority for what to build, where, when and how provides a conundrum for both parties. Airports often want a say in what is developed outside of the airport fence, and cities often want a say in what is developed inside the airport fence. Defining how much of a say airports and cities have in decisions beyond their jurisdictional control is likely to be a topic that continues so long as airports and cities maintain separate formal decision-making processes for what to build, where, when and how. However, the recent Green and White Papers for a new National Aviation Policy have made early inroads to formalising relationships between Australia’s major airports and their host cities. At present, no clear indication (within practice or literature) is evident to the appropriateness of different governance arrangements for decisions to develop in situations that bring together the opposing strategic interests of airports and cities; thus leaving decisions for infrastructure development as complex decision-making spaces that hold airport and city/regional interests at stake. The line of enquiry is motivated by a lack of empirical research on networked decision-making domains outside of the realm of institutional theorists (Agranoff & McGuire, 2001; Provan, Fish & Sydow, 2007). That is, governance literature has remained focused towards abstract conceptualisations of organisation, without focusing on the minutia of how organisation influences action in real-world applications. A recent study by Black (2008) has provided an initial foothold for governance researchers into networked decision-making domains. This study builds upon Black’s (2008) work by aiming to explore and understand the problem space of making decisions subjected to complex jurisdictional and relational interdependencies. That is, the research examines the formal and informal structures, relationships, and forums that operationalise debates and interactions between decision-making actors as they vie for influence over deciding what to build, where, when and how in airport-proximal development projects. The research mobilises a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods to examine three embedded cases of airport-proximal development from a network governance perspective. Findings from the research provide a new understanding to the ways in which informal actor networks underpin and combine with formal decision-making networks to create new (or realigned) governance spaces that facilitate decision-making during complex phases of development planning. The research is timely, and responds well to Isett, Mergel, LeRoux, Mischen and Rethemeyer’s (2011) recent critique of limitations within current network governance literature, specifically to their noted absence of empirical studies that acknowledge and interrogate the simultaneity of formal and informal network structures within network governance arrangements (Isett et al., 2011, pp. 162-166). The combination of social network analysis (SNA) techniques and thematic enquiry has enabled findings to document and interpret the ways in which decision-making actors organise to overcome complex problems for planning infrastructure. An innovative approach to using association networks has been used to provide insights to the importance of the different ways actors interact with one another, thus providing a simple yet valuable addition to the increasingly popular discipline of SNA. The research also identifies when and how different types of networks (i.e. formal and informal) are able to overcome currently known limitations to network governance (see McGuire & Agranoff, 2011), thus adding depth to the emerging body of network governance literature surrounding limitations to network ways of working (i.e. Rhodes, 1997a; Keast & Brown, 2002; Rethemeyer & Hatmaker, 2008; McGuire & Agranoff, 2011). Contributions are made to practice via the provision of a timely understanding of how horizontal fora between airports and their regions are used, particularly in the context of how they reframe the governance of decision-making for airport-proximal infrastructure development. This new understanding will enable government and industry actors to better understand the structural impacts of governance arrangements before they design or adopt them, particularly for factors such as efficiency of information, oversight, and responsiveness to change.

Making a case for social impact assessment in urban development : social impacts and legal disputes in Queensland, Australia

Urban land use planning and policy decisions are often contested, with the multiple stakeholders (business, developers, residents, policymakers and the wider community) frequently holding opposing viewpoints about the issues and best solution. In recent years, however, the participatory process of social impact assessment (SIA) has received significant attention as a way to mitigate conflict, facilitating negotiation and conflict resolution. This paper examines how social impacts have informed development appeals in Australia, focussing on ten cases from the Queensland Planning and Environment Court (QPEC). Half are appeals from community members (typically neighbours) wanting to oppose approvals and half from organisations appealing against City Councils’ decisions to deny their development applications. While legal challenges do not necessarily reflect attitudes and practices, they provide a means to begin to assess how social impacts (although not often explicitly defined as such) inform development related disputes. Based on the nature and outcomes of 10 QPEC cases, we argue that many legal cases could have been avoided if SIA had been undertaken appropriately. First, the issues in each case are clearly social, incorporating impacts on amenity, the character of an area, the needs of different social groups, perceptions of risk and a range of other social issues. Second, the outcomes and recommendations from each case, such as negotiating agreements, modifying plans and accommodating community concerns would have been equally served thorough SIA. Our argument is that engagement at an early stage, utilising SIA, could have likely achieved the same result in a less adversarial and much less expensive and time-consuming environment than a legal case.

Diversification for sustainable development in rural and regional Australia : how local community leaders conceptualise the impacts and opportunities from agriculture, tourism and mining

Although the multiple economic, environmental and social challenges threatening the viability of rural and regional communities in Australia are well-known, little research has explored how community leaders conceptualise the impact and opportunities associated with economic diversification from agriculture into alternative industries, such as tourism and mining. This qualitative research, utilising the Darling Downs in Queensland as a case study, documents how 28 local community leaders have experienced this economic diversification process. The findings reveal that local community leaders have a deep understanding about the opportunities and challenges presented by diversification, articulating a clear vision about how to achieve the best possible future for their region. Despite excitement about growth, there were concerns about preserving heritage, the increased pressure on local infrastructure and an ageing population. By documenting local leader’s insights, these findings may help inform planning for rural and regional communities and facilitate management of the exciting yet challenging process of growth and diversification

Integrating ICT into the planning process : impacts, opportunities and challenges

Mobile telecommunications have become a key lifestyle and technological trend of the twenty first century. In the context of increased urbanism and pressure on cites for citizen engagement for the purpose of creating good public places the potential of these technologies raises critical questions for planning professionals. Even though technology has become integral to all functions within our urban environment, little is known about perceptions and relationship between urban planners and the ubiquitous, ever-present digital layer of urban data and information. This paper explores this issue, via three focus groups and an additional follow-up interview with planners from local and state government, education and private sector. This paper explores the issues of integrating information and communication technologies into planning practice and the affordances that these technologies offer for community consultation and placemaking.

Socio-economic & environmental impacts of battery driven auto rickshaw at Rajshahi city in Bangladesh

This paper describes the socio-economic and environmental impacts of battery driven Auto Rickshaw at Rajshahi city in Bangladesh. Unemployment problem is one of the major problems in Bangladesh. The number of unemployed people in Bangladesh is 7 lacks. Auto Rickshaw reduces this unemployment problem near about 2%.In this thesis work various questions were asked to the Auto Rickshaw driver in the different point in the Rajshahi city. Then those data were calculated to know their socio economic condition. The average number of passenger per Auto Rickshaw was determined at various places of Rajshahi city (Talaimari mor, Hadir mor, Alupotti, Shaheb bazar zero point, Shodor Hospital mor, Fire brigade mor, CNB mor, Lakshipur mor, Bondo gate, Bornali, Panir tank, Rail gate, Rail Station, Bhodrar mor, Adorsha School mor). Air pollution is a great threat for human health. One of the major causes of the air pollution is the emission from various vehicles, which are running by the burning of the fossil fuel in different internal combustion(IC) engines. All the data’s about emission from various power plants were collected from internet. Then the amounts of emission (CO2, NOX and PM) from different power plant were calculated in terms of kg/km. The energy required by the Auto Rickshaw per km was also calculated. Then the histogram of emission from different vehicles in terms of kg/km was drawn. By analyzing the data and chart, it was found that, battery driven Auto Rickshaw increases income, social status, comfort and decreases unemployment problems.

Assessing the impacts of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive method

Background: Ultraviolet radiation exposure during an individuals' lifetime is a known risk factor for the development of skin cancer. However, less evidence is available on assessing the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Objectives: This study aims to assess the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive measure of exposure. Methods: We recruited 180 participants (73 males, 107 females) aged 18-83 years. Digital imaging of skin hyper-pigmentation (skin damage) and skin wrinkling (skin aging) on the facial region was measured. Lifetime sun exposure (presented as hours) was calculated from the participants' age multiplied by the estimated annual time outdoors for each year of life. We analyzed the effects of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging. We adjust for the influence of age, sex, occupation, history of skin cancer, eye color, hair color, and skin color. Results: There were non-linear relationships between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Younger participant's skin is much more sensitive to sun exposure than those who were over 50 years of age. As such, there were negative interactions between lifetime sun exposure and age. Age had linear effects on skin damage and skin aging. Conclusion: The data presented showed that self reported lifetime sun exposure was positively associated with skin damage and skin aging, in particular, the younger people. Future health promotion for sun exposure needs to pay attention to this group for skin cancer prevention messaging. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of foreign direct investment on China’s construction industry

China’s national construction industry is now preparing to face the challenges, and to seize the opportunities, resulting from China’s entry to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). With the foreign direct investment (FDI) hitting a record high of around US$52.7 billion in 2002, China is believed to have now surpassed the USA as the world’s favorite destination for foreign investment. This fact, coupled with the huge potential for infrastructure development, indicates that the relatively large proportion of FDI flowing into the national construction industry will continue to increase in the foreseeable future. Positive aspects of FDI flowing will definitely help forging new industrial capabilities for China’s construction industry, thus helping it to achieve the ambitious strategic targets set by the Government for exporting construction goods and services. To shed some light on the position of the national industry in the global economy, this paper briefly presents the current international standing of China’s construction industry and qualitatively appraises potential positive influences of, and challenges associated with, FDI on the national industry.

Arguing the Autopsy : mutual suspicion, jurisdictional confusion and the socially marginal

Vulnerable and marginalised populations are not only over-represented in the criminal justice system, but also in civil jurisdictions like the coronial system. Moreover, many of the personnel who deal with criminal matters, especially in rural and regional areas, are also those who manage the coronial death investigation. This movement back and forth between civil and criminal jurisdictions is difficult for the both professional personnel and the families, but especially for those families who may also have had dealings with these personnel in the criminal justice system, or who present as suspicious due to larger historical and global issues. While coronial legislation now allows families to raise cultural and religious concerns about the process, particularly to do with the autopsy of their loved one, this also requires them to identify themselves to police at the initial stage of the death investigation. This paper, part of a larger body of work on autopsy decision making, discusses the ways in which this information is gathered by police, how it is communicated through the system, the ways in which families are supported through the process, and the difficulties that ensue.

Assessing resilience of water resources systems under the impacts of climate change

This paper presents an approach to assess the resilience of a water supply system under the impacts of climate change. Changes to climate characteristics such as rainfall, evapotranspiration and temperature can result in changes to the global hydrological cycle and thereby adversely impact on the ability of water supply systems to meet service standards in the future. Changes to the frequency and characteristics of floods and droughts as well as the quality of water provided by groundwater and surface water resources are the other consequences of climate change that will affect water supply system functionality. The extent and significance of these changes underline the necessity for assessing the future functionality of water supply systems under the impacts of climate change. Resilience can be a tool for assessing the ability of a water supply system to meet service standards under the future climate conditions. The study approach is based on defining resilience as the ability of a system to absorb pressure without going into failure state as well as its ability to achieve an acceptable level of function quickly after failure. In order to present this definition in the form of a mathematical function, a surrogate measure of resilience has been proposed in this paper. In addition, a step-by-step approach to estimate resilience of water storage reservoirs is presented. This approach will enable a comprehensive understanding of the functioning of a water storage reservoir under future climate scenarios and can also be a robust tool to predict future challenges faced by water supply systems under the consequence of climate change.

Pseudo-marginal algorithms with multiple CPUs

The emergence of pseudo-marginal algorithms has led to improved computational efficiency for dealing with complex Bayesian models with latent variables. Here an unbiased estimator of the likelihood replaces the true likelihood in order to produce a Bayesian algorithm that remains on the marginal space of the model parameter (with latent variables integrated out), with a target distribution that is still the correct posterior distribution. Very efficient proposal distributions can be developed on the marginal space relative to the joint space of model parameter and latent variables. Thus psuedo-marginal algorithms tend to have substantially better mixing properties. However, for pseudo-marginal approaches to perform well, the likelihood has to be estimated rather precisely. This can be difficult to achieve in complex applications. In this paper we propose to take advantage of multiple central processing units (CPUs), that are readily available on most standard desktop computers. Here the likelihood is estimated independently on the multiple CPUs, with the ultimate estimate of the likelihood being the average of the estimates obtained from the multiple CPUs. The estimate remains unbiased, but the variability is reduced. We compare and contrast two different technologies that allow the implementation of this idea, both of which require a negligible amount of extra programming effort. The superior performance of this idea over the standard approach is demonstrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility model.

Impacts of plug-in electric vehicles on distribution networks

As a good solution to the shortage and environmental unfriendliness of fossil fuels, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) attract much interests of the public. To investigate the problems caused by the integration of numerous PEVs, a lot of research work has been done on the grid impacts of PEVs in aspects including thermal loading, voltage regulation, transformer loss of life, unbalance, losses, and harmonic distortion levels. This paper surveys the-state-of-the-art of the research in this area and outline three possible measures for a power grid company to make full use of PEVs.