Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statin therapy using different scoring systems in Europe: a population-based study in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10- year CHD risk. We compared the 10-year CHD risk assessments and eligibility percentages for statin therapy using three scoring algorithms currently used in Europe. METHODS: We studied 5683 women and men, aged 35-75, without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), in a population-based study in Switzerland. We compared the 10-year CHD risk using three scoring schemes, i.e., the Framingham risk score (FRS) from the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the PROCAM scoring scheme from the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the European risk SCORE for low-risk countries, without and with extrapolation to 60 years as recommended by the European Society of Cardiology guidelines (ESC). With FRS and PROCAM, high-risk was defined as a 10- year risk of fatal or non-fatal CHD>20% and a 10-year risk of fatal CVD≥5% with SCORE. We compared the proportions of high-risk participants and eligibility for statin use according to these three schemes. For each guideline, we estimated the impact of increased statin use from current partial compliance to full compliance on potential CHD deaths averted over 10 years, using a success proportion of 27% for statins. RESULTS: Participants classified at high-risk (both genders) were 5.8% according to FRS and 3.0% to the PROCAM, whereas the European risk SCORE classified 12.5% at high-risk (15.4% with extrapolation to 60 years). For the primary prevention of CHD, 18.5% of participants were eligible for statin therapy using ATP III, 16.6% using IAS, and 10.3% using ESC (13.0% with extrapolation) because ESC guidelines recommend statin therapy only in high-risk subjects. In comparison with IAS, agreement to identify eligible adults for statins was good with ATP III, but moderate with ESC. Using a population perspective, a full compliance with ATP III guidelines would reduce up to 17.9% of the 24′ 310 CHD deaths expected over 10 years in Switzerland, 17.3% with IAS and 10.8% with ESC (11.5% with extrapolation). CONCLUSIONS: Full compliance with guidelines for statin therapy would result in substantial health benefits, but proportions of high-risk adults and eligible adults for statin use varied substantially depending on the scoring systems and corresponding guidelines used for estimating CHD risk in Europe.

Low statin use in adults hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To assess recommended and actual use of statins in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on clinical prediction scores in adults who develop their first acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHOD: Cross-sectional study of 3172 adults without previous CVD hospitalized with ACS at 4 university centers in Switzerland. The number of participants eligible for statins before hospitalization was estimated based on the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines and compared to the observed number of participants on statins at hospital entry. RESULTS: Overall, 1171 (37%) participants were classified as high-risk (10-year risk of cardiovascular mortality ≥5% or diabetes); 1025 (32%) as intermediate risk (10-year risk <5% but ≥1%); and 976 (31%) as low risk (10-year risk <1%). Before hospitalization, 516 (16%) were on statins; among high-risk participants, only 236 of 1171 (20%) were on statins. If ESC primary prevention guidelines had been fully implemented, an additional 845 high-risk adults (27% of the whole sample) would have been eligible for statins before hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Although statins are recommended for primary prevention in high-risk adults, only one-fifth of them are on statins when hospitalized for a first ACS.

Managerial Risk-Taking and CEO Excess Compensation

This paper examines risk taking and CEO excess compensation problems in U.S firms to determine their impact on shareholders wealth. Literature suggests a positive effect of CEO incentive risk and strong corporate governance on CEO risk taking. Furthermore, the strong governance mitigates excess compensation problem. Controlling for governance quality and incentive risk, I provide empirical evidence of a significant association between risk taking and CEO excess compensation. When I also control for pay-performance sensitivity (delta) and feedback effects of incentive compensation on CEO risk taking, I find that higher use of incentive pay encourages risk taking, and due to a high exposure to risk CEOs draws excess compensation. Furthermore, I find that the excess compensation problem is more serious with CEOs taking high risk than with those taking low risk. Finally, I find that CEO risk taking also has structural impacts on CEO compensation

The longitudinal development of emotion regulation capacities in children at risk for externalizing disorders

The development of emotional regulation capacities in children at high versus low risk for externalizing disorder was examined in a longitudinal study investigating: a) whether disturbances in emotion regulation precede and predict the emergence of externalizing symptoms; and b) whether sensitive maternal behavior is a significant influence on the development of child emotion regulation. Families experiencing high (n=58) and low (n=63) levels of psychosocial adversity were recruited to the study during pregnancy. Direct observational assessments of child emotion regulation capacities and maternal sensitivity were completed in early infancy, at 12 and 18-months, and at 5-years. Key findings were as follows. First, high risk children showed poorer emotion regulation capacities than their low risk counterparts at every stage of assessment. Second, from 12-months onwards, emotion regulation capacities showed a degree of stability, and were associated with behavioral problems, both concurrently and prospectively. Third, maternal sensitivity was related to child emotion regulation capacities throughout development, with poorer emotion regulation in the high risk group being associated with lower maternal sensitivity. The results are consistent with a causal role for problems in the regulation of negative emotions in the etiology of externalizing psychopathology, and highlight insensitive parenting as a potentially key developmental influence.

Risk reduction and real estate portfolio size

Despite a number of papers that discuss the advantages of increased size on risk levels in real estate portfolios there is remarkably little empirical evidence based on actual portfolios. The objective of this paper is to remedy this deficiency by examining the portfolio risk of a large sample of actual property data over the period 1981 to 1996. The results show that all that can be said is that portfolios of properties of a large size, on the average, tend to have lower risks than small sized portfolios. More importantly portfolios of a few properties can have very high or very low risk.

The lottery-panel task for bi-dimensional parameter-free elicitation of risk attitudes

We propose first, a simple task for the eliciting attitudes toward risky choice, the SGG lottery-panel task, which consists in a series of lotteries constructed to compensate riskier options with higher risk-return trade-offs. Using Principal Component Analysis technique, we show that the SGG lottery-panel task is capable of capturing two dimensions of individual risky decision making i.e. subjects’ average risk taking and their sensitivity towards variations in risk-return. From the results of a large experimental dataset, we confirm that the task systematically captures a number of regularities such as: A tendency to risk averse behavior (only around 10% of choices are compatible with risk neutrality); An attraction to certain payoffs compared to low risk lotteries, compatible with over-(under-) weighting of small (large) probabilities predicted in PT and; Gender differences, i.e. males being consistently less risk averse than females but both genders being similarly responsive to the increases in risk-premium. Another interesting result is that in hypothetical choices most individuals increase their risk taking responding to the increase in return to risk, as predicted by PT, while across panels with real rewards we see even more changes, but opposite to the expected pattern of riskier choices for higher risk-returns. Therefore, we conclude from our data that an “economic anomaly” emerges in the real reward choices opposite to the hypothetical choices. These findings are in line with Camerer's (1995) view that although in many domains, paid subjects probably do exert extra mental effort which improves their performance, choice over money gambles is not likely to be a domain in which effort will improve adherence to rational axioms (p. 635). Finally, we demonstrate that both dimensions of risk attitudes, average risk taking and sensitivity towards variations in the return to risk, are desirable not only to describe behavior under risk but also to explain behavior in other contexts, as illustrated by an example. In the second study, we propose three additional treatments intended to elicit risk attitudes under high stakes and mixed outcome (gains and losses) lotteries. Using a dataset obtained from a hypothetical implementation of the tasks we show that the new treatments are able to capture both dimensions of risk attitudes. This new dataset allows us to describe several regularities, both at the aggregate and within-subjects level. We find that in every treatment over 70% of choices show some degree of risk aversion and only between 0.6% and 15.3% of individuals are consistently risk neutral within the same treatment. We also confirm the existence of gender differences in the degree of risk taking, that is, in all treatments females prefer safer lotteries compared to males. Regarding our second dimension of risk attitudes we observe, in all treatments, an increase in risk taking in response to risk premium increases. Treatment comparisons reveal other regularities, such as a lower degree of risk taking in large stake treatments compared to low stake treatments and a lower degree of risk taking when losses are incorporated into the large stake lotteries. Results that are compatible with previous findings in the literature, for stake size effects (e.g., Binswanger, 1980; Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Silvestre, 1999; Hogarth & Einhorn, 1990; Holt & Laury, 2002; Kachelmeier & Shehata, 1992; Kühberger et al., 1999; B. J. Weber & Chapman, 2005; Wik et al., 2007) and domain effect (e.g., Brooks and Zank, 2005, Schoemaker, 1990, Wik et al., 2007). Whereas for small stake treatments, we find that the effect of incorporating losses into the outcomes is not so clear. At the aggregate level an increase in risk taking is observed, but also more dispersion in the choices, whilst at the within-subjects level the effect weakens. Finally, regarding responses to risk premium, we find that compared to only gains treatments sensitivity is lower in the mixed lotteries treatments (SL and LL). In general sensitivity to risk-return is more affected by the domain than the stake size. After having described the properties of risk attitudes as captured by the SGG risk elicitation task and its three new versions, it is important to recall that the danger of using unidimensional descriptions of risk attitudes goes beyond the incompatibility with modern economic theories like PT, CPT etc., all of which call for tests with multiple degrees of freedom. Being faithful to this recommendation, the contribution of this essay is an empirically and endogenously determined bi-dimensional specification of risk attitudes, useful to describe behavior under uncertainty and to explain behavior in other contexts. Hopefully, this will contribute to create large datasets containing a multidimensional description of individual risk attitudes, while at the same time allowing for a robust context, compatible with present and even future more complex descriptions of human attitudes towards risk.

Cocoa flavanol intake improves endothelial function and Framingham Risk Score in healthy men and women: a randomised, controlled, double-masked trial: the Flaviola Health Study

Cocoa flavanol (CF) intake improves endothelial function in patients with cardiovascular risk factors and disease. We investigated the effects of CF on surrogate markers of cardiovascular health in low risk, healthy, middle-aged individuals without history, signs or symptoms of CVD. In a 1-month, open-label, one-armed pilot study, bi-daily ingestion of 450 mg of CF led to a time-dependent increase in endothelial function (measured as flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD)) that plateaued after 2 weeks. Subsequently, in a randomised, controlled, double-masked, parallel-group dietary intervention trial (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01799005), 100 healthy, middle-aged (35–60 years) men and women consumed either the CF-containing drink (450 mg) or a nutrient-matched CF-free control bi-daily for 1 month. The primary end point was FMD. Secondary end points included plasma lipids and blood pressure, thus enabling the calculation of Framingham Risk Scores and pulse wave velocity. At 1 month, CF increased FMD over control by 1·2 % (95 % CI 1·0, 1·4 %). CF decreased systolic and diastolic blood pressure by 4·4 mmHg (95 % CI 7·9, 0·9 mmHg) and 3·9 mmHg (95 % CI 6·7, 0·9 mmHg), pulse wave velocity by 0·4 m/s (95 % CI 0·8, 0·04 m/s), total cholesterol by 0·20 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·39, 0·01 mmol/l) and LDL-cholesterol by 0·17 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·32, 0·02 mmol/l), whereas HDL-cholesterol increased by 0·10 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·04, 0·17 mmol/l). By applying the Framingham Risk Score, CF predicted a significant lowering of 10-year risk for CHD, myocardial infarction, CVD, death from CHD and CVD. In healthy individuals, regular CF intake improved accredited cardiovascular surrogates of cardiovascular risk, demonstrating that dietary flavanols have the potential to maintain cardiovascular health even in low-risk subjects.

Characterisation of dystrophin in fetuses at risk for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Dystrophin, the product of the Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) gene, was studied in muscle from 16 human fetuses at risk for the disease. Eleven high risk (greater than 95% probability) and 5 low-risk (less than 25% probability) fetuses were studied with antibodies raised to different regions of the protein. All low-risk fetuses showed a similar pattern to that of normal fetuses of a comparable age: using Western blot analysis, a protein was detected of similar size and abundance to that of normal fetuses (i.e. smaller molecular weight than that of adult muscle); immunocytochemistry showed uniform sarcolemmal staining in fetuses older than 18 weeks gestation and differential staining of myotubes at different stages of development (distinguished by size) in younger fetuses (less than 15 weeks gestation). In contrast, Western blot analysis of high-risk fetuses detected low levels of dystrophin in 4 cases; 7 fetuses had no detectable protein. Immunocytochemistry with some dystrophin antibodies showed weak staining of the sarcolemma and around central nuclei in younger fetuses; in older fetuses there was little sarcolemmal staining with any antibody other than occasional positive fibres. These results indicate that careful study of dystrophin in fetuses at risk for DMD can be used to establish the clinical phenotype and provide additional information for future family counselling.

Ventricular Systolic Reserve in Asymptomatic Children Previously Treated With Low Doses of Anthracyclines

Doppler echocardiography has been used for the diagnosis of anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity. However, few data are available that include asymptomatic children previously treated with a low cumulative dose of this drug and therefore have a low risk of cardiac dysfunction. The aim of this study was to evaluate after-exercise cardiac function in asymptomatic children previously treated with a low cumulative dose of anthracycline and no clinical or laboratory evidence of cardiotoxicity. Doppler echocardiography was performed before and immediately after physical exercise in 29 children aged 5 to 17 years (anthracycline [ADRIA] group). All had finished cancer treatment with anthracycline derivatives for ≥1 year (cumulative dose 100 mg/m2). Results were compared with those from age- and gender-matched healthy children (control group; n = 26) using the Mann-Whitney rank test. Exercise-induced cardiac function changes within groups were analyzed using Wilcoxon's signed-rank test. Exercise induced significant increases in left ventricular systolic function indexes in both groups. However, the ADRIA group had significantly lower changes in left ventricular ejection fraction (ADRIA group 0.71 ± 0.02 vs 0.80 ± 0.04 and control group 0.71 ± 0.02 vs 0.89 ± 0.05, p = 0.0017) and end-systolic stress-volume index (ADRIA group 4.59 ± 0.69 vs 6.4 ± 2.0 g.cm-2/ml.m-2 and control group 5.49 ± 0.98 vs 11.54 ± 2.86 g.cm-2/ml.m-2; p <0.0001), indicating decreased functional systolic reserve. In conclusion, asymptomatic children previously treated with low cumulative doses of anthracycline had decreased functional systolic reserve evidenced by exercise, suggesting a nonclinically manifested cardiotoxicity. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Overexpression of ANXA1 in Penile Carcinomas Positive for High-Risk HPVs

The incidence of penile cancer varies between populations but is rare in developed nations. Penile cancer is associated with a number of established risk factors and associated diseases including phimosis with chronic inflammation, human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, poor hygiene and smoking. The objective of this study was to identify genes related to this type of cancer. The detection of HPV was analyzed in 47 penile squamous cell carcinoma samples. HPV DNA was detected in 48.9% of penile squamous cell carcinoma cases. High-risk HPV were present in 42.5% of cases and low-risk HPV were detected in 10.6% of penile squamous cell carcinomas. The RaSH approach identified differential expression of Annexin A1 (ANXA1), p16, RPL6, PBEF1 and KIAA1033 in high-risk HPV positive penile carcinoma; ANXA1 and p16 were overexpressed in penile squamous cells positive for high-risk HPVs compared to normal penile samples by qPCR. ANXA1 and p16 proteins were significantly more expressed in the cells from high-risk HPV-positive penile carcinoma as compared to HPV-negative tumors (p<0.0001) independently of the subtype of the carcinoma. Overexpression of ANXA1 might be mediated by HPV E6 in penile squamous cell carcinoma of patients with high-risk HPVs, suggesting that this gene plays an important role in penile cancer. © 2013 Calmon et al.

Long-term orange juice consumption is associated with low LDL-cholesterol and apolipoprotein B in normal and moderately hypercholesterolemic subjects

Abstract. Background: This study investigated the hypothesis that long-term orange juice consumption (≥ 12 months) was associated with low risk factors for cardiovascular disease in adult men and women with normal and moderately high cholesterol blood levels. Methods. The sample consisted of 103 men (18-66 y) and 26 women (18-65 y); all were employees of an orange juice factory with daily access to free orange juice. The results showed that 41% of the individuals consumed 2 cups (480 mL) of orange juice per day for at least twelve months, while 59% of the volunteers are non-consumers of orange juice. Results: Orange juice consumers with normal serum lipid levels had significantly lower total cholesterol (-11%, p <0.001), LDL-cholesterol (-18%, p < 0.001), apolipoprotein B (apo B) (-12%, p < 0.01) and LDL/HDL ratio (-12%, p < 0.04) in comparison to non-consumers, as did the consumers with moderate hypercholesterolemia: lower total cholesterol (-5%, p <0.02), LDL-cholesterol (-12%, p <0.03), apolipoprotein B (-12%, p <0.01) and LDL/HDL ratio (-16%, p <0.05) in comparison the non-consumers counterparts. Serum levels of homocysteine, HDL- cholesterol and apolipoprotein A-1, body composition and the dietary intake of food energy and macronutrients did not differ among orange juice consumers and non-consumers, but vitamin C and folate intake was higher in orange juice consumers. Conclusion: Long-term orange juice consumers had lower levels of total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, apo B and LDL/HDL ratio and an improvement of folate and vitamin C in their diet. © 2013 Aptekmann and Cesar; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Different tools for estimating cardiovascular risk in Brazilian postmenopausal women

Objective: To compare estimation of cardiovascular risk using the Framinghan Risk Score (FRS) and the presence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in postmenopausal women to prevent primary cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods: This cross-sectional study included 497 Brazilian women (aged 45 years and amenorrhea >12months). Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the FRS that includes age, total cholesterol, HDL, systolic blood pressure and smoking status. Women showing three or more of the following criteria were diagnosed with MetS: waist circumference (WC) >88cm, blood pressure 130/85mmHg, triglycerides 150mg/dl, HDL<50mg/dl and glucose 100mg/dl. For statistical analysis, the Chi-square, Fisher's exact, and logistic regression (odds ratio-OR) were used. Results: The mean age was 55.3±7.0 years and time since menopause 7.2±5.9 years. Based on FRS, 72.4% of women were classified as low-risk, 16.5% moderate risk and 11.1% a high-risk. MetS was identified in 40% of the women, and 46.2% were considered of moderate risk for CVD, while 84.9% of those without MetS were classified as low-risk (p<0.001). The risk for CVD increased significantly with age at menopause (OR1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.17), time since menopause (OR1.13; 95% CI, 1.08-1.18), elevated triglycerides (OR1.03; 95% CI, 1.0-1.10) and presence of MetS (OR1.72; 95% CI 1.48-1.84). Conclusions: By using only FRS to estimate cardiovascular risk, a substantial number of postmenopausal women showing evidence of MetS were not identified, even though women with MetS are at higher risk of CVD. © 2013 Informa UK Ltd.

Low frequency of human papillomavirus detection in prostate tissue from individuals from Northern Brazil

The presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) was evaluated in 65 samples of prostate tumours and six samples of prostates with benign prostatic hyperplasia from individuals from Northern Brazil. We used a highly sensitive test, the Linear Array HPV Genotyping Test, to detect 37 high and low-risk HPV types. In this study, only 3% of tumour samples showed HPV infection. Our findings support the conclusion that, despite the high incidence of HPV infection in the geographic regions studied, HPV was not associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the frequency of HPV detection in prostatic tissue of individuals from Brazil.

Early light reduction for preventing retinopathy of prematurity in very low birth weight infants

BackgroundRetinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a complex condition of the developing retinal blood vessels and is one of the leading causes of preventable childhood blindness. Several risk factors for ROP have been studied over the past 50 years. Among them, general immaturity (low birth weight and low gestational age) and prolonged oxygen therapy have been consistently related to disease onset. However, it is understood that the progression of the disease is multifactorial and may be associated with others risk factors, such as multiple gestation, apnoea, intracranial haemorrhage, anaemia, sepsis, prolonged mechanical ventilation, multiple transfusions and light exposure. Furthermore, the precise role of these individual factors in the development of the disease has not yet been well established.ObjectivesTo determine whether the reduction of early environmental light exposure reduces the incidence of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) or poor ROP outcomes among very low birth weight infants.Search methodsWe searched the following databases: the Cochrane Neonatal Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, HealthSTAR, Science Citation Index Database, CANCERLIT, the Oxford Database of Perinatal Trials and www.clinicaltrials.gov. We also searched previous reviews including cross-references, abstracts, conference and symposia proceedings, and contacted expert informants. This search was updated in October 2012.Selection criteriaRandomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that reduced light exposure to premature infants within the first seven days following birth were considered for this review. We also considered cluster-randomised controlled trials.Data collection and analysisData on clinical outcomes including any acute ROP and poor ROP outcome were extracted by both review authors independently and consensus reached. We conducted data analysis according to the standards of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group.Main resultsData from four randomised trials with a total of 897 participants failed to show any reduction in acute ROP or poor ROP outcome with the reduction of ambient light to premature infants' retinas. The overall methodological quality of the included studies was about evenly split between those in which the classification was unclear and those in which the studies were categorised as low risk of bias. There was no report on the secondary outcomes considered in this review: quality of life measures; and time of exposure to oxygen.Authors' conclusionsThe evidence shows that bright light is not the cause of retinopathy of prematurity and that the reduction of exposure of the retinas of premature infants to light has no effect on the incidence of the disease.