A colorectal cancer genome-wide association study in a Spanish cohort identifies two variants associated with colorectal cancer risk at 1p33 and 8p12

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a disease of complex aetiology, with much of the expected inherited risk being due to several common low risk variants. Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) have identified 20 CRC risk variants. Nevertheless, these have only been able to explain part of the missing heritability. Moreover, these signals have only been inspected in populations of Northern European origin. Results: Thus, we followed the same approach in a Spanish cohort of 881 cases and 667 controls. Sixty-four variants at 24 loci were found to be associated with CRC at p-values <10-5. We therefore evaluated the 24 loci in another Spanish replication cohort (1481 cases and 1850 controls). Two of these SNPs, rs12080929 at 1p33 (P-replication=0.042; P-pooled=5.523x10(-03); OR (CI95%)=0.866(0.782-0.959)) and rs11987193 at 8p12 (P-replication=0.039; P-pooled=6.985x10(-5); OR (CI95%)=0.786(0.705-0.878)) were replicated in the second Phase, although they did not reach genome-wide statistical significance. Conclusions: We have performed the first CRC GWAS in a Southern European population and by these means we were able to identify two new susceptibility variants at 1p33 and 8p12 loci. These two SNPs are located near the SLC5A9 and DUSP4 loci, respectively, which could be good functional candidates for the association signals. We therefore believe that these two markers constitute good candidates for CRC susceptibility loci and should be further evaluated in other larger datasets. Moreover, we highlight that were these two SNPs true susceptibility variants, they would constitute a decrease in the CRC missing heritability fraction.

Low prevalence of primary biliary cirrhosis in Victoria, Australia. Melbourne Liver Group

A prevalence study of primary biliary cirrhosis was carried out in the state of Victoria, Australia, by means of a mail survey of specialist physicians and a review of hospital records. Eighty four cases were identified, giving a prevalence of 19.1 per million population (95% confidence limits (CI) 15.3, 23.7), which is among the lowest in published reports. The prevalence in the Australian born, at risk population (women over the age of 24) was 51 per million (95% CI 37.5, 67.9). Both these figures are considerably lower than those in populations of similar age distribution in the UK and northern Europe. Since most Victorians are descended from British or European settlers, the low prevalence of primary biliary cirrhosis in this study supports the hypothesis that local environmental factors may be important in the pathogenesis of this disease.

Incorporating Severity and Risk as Factors to the Fardal Cost-Effectiveness Model to Create a Cost-Benefit Model for Periodontal Treatment

Background: A previously described economic model was based on average values for patients diagnosed with chronic periodontitis (CP). However, tooth loss varies among treated patients and factors for tooth loss include CP severity and risk. The model was refined to incorporate CP severity and risk to determine the cost of treating a specific level of CP severity and risk that is associated with the benefit of tooth preservation.

Methods: A population that received and another that did not receive periodontal treatment were used to determine treatment costs and tooth loss. The number of teeth preserved was the difference of the number of teeth lost between the two populations. The cost of periodontal treatment was divided by the number of teeth preserved for combinations of CP severity and risk.

Results: The cost of periodontal treatment divided by the number of teeth preserved ranged from (US) $ 1,405 to $ 4,895 for high or moderate risk combined with any severity of CP and was more than $ 8,639 for low risk combined with mild CP. The cost of a three-unit bridge was $ 3,416, and the cost of a single-tooth replacement was $ 4,787.

Conclusion: Periodontal treatment could be justified on the sole basis of tooth preservation when CP risk is moderate or high regardless of disease severity.

Characterisation of the frequent exacerbator phenotype in COPD patients in a large UK primary care population

BACKGROUND: The 'frequent exacerbator' is recognised as an important phenotype in COPD. Current understanding about this phenotype comes from prospective longitudinal clinical trials in secondary/tertiary care with little information reported in primary care populations.

AIMS: To characterize the frequent-exacerbator phenotype and identify associated risk factors in a large UK primary care COPD population.

METHODS: Using a large database of primary care patients from 80 UK general practices, patients were categorised using GOLD 2014 criteria into high and low risk groups based on exacerbation history. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to investigate covariates associated with the frequent-exacerbator phenotype and risk of experiencing a severe exacerbation (leading to hospitalisation).

RESULTS: Of the total study population (n = 9219), 2612 (28%) fulfilled the criteria for high risk frequent-exacerbators. Independent risk factors (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]) for ≥2 exacerbations were: most severely impaired modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnoea score (mMRC grade 4: 4.37 [2.64-7.23]), lower FEV1 percent predicted (FEV1 <30%: 2.42 [1.61-3.65]), co-morbid cardiovascular disease (1.42 [1.19-1.68]), depression (1.56 [1.22-1.99]) or osteoporosis (1.54 [1.19-2.01]), and female gender (1.20 [1.01-1.43]). Older patients (≥75 years), those with most severe lung impairment (FEV1 <30%), those with highest mMRC score and those with co-morbid osteoporosis were identified as most at risk of experiencing exacerbations requiring hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS: Although COPD exacerbations occur across all grades of disease severity, female patients with high dyspnoea scores, more severely impaired lung function and co-morbidities are at greatest risk. Elderly patients, with severely impaired lung function, high mMRC scores and osteoporosis are associated with experience of severe exacerbations requiring hospitalisation.

Alcohol drinking, the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in a population with high mean alcohol consumption.

AIMS: To investigate the relationship of alcohol consumption with the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in a population-based study with high mean alcohol consumption. Few data exist on these conditions in high-risk drinkers. METHODS: In 6172 adults aged 35-75 years, alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1-6, 7-13, 14-20, 21-27, 28-34 and ≥ 35 drinks/week or as non-drinkers (0), low-risk (1-13), medium-to-high-risk (14-34) and very-high-risk (≥ 35) drinkers. Alcohol consumption was objectively confirmed by biochemical tests. In multivariate analysis, we assessed the relationship of alcohol consumption with adjusted prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, diabetes and insulin resistance, determined with the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). RESULTS: Seventy-three per cent of participants consumed alcohol, 16% were medium-to-high-risk drinkers and 2% very-high-risk drinkers. In multivariate analysis, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, diabetes and mean HOMA-IR decreased with low-risk drinking and increased with high-risk drinking. Adjusted prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 24% in non-drinkers, 19% in low-risk (P<0.001 vs. non-drinkers), 20% in medium-to-high-risk and 29% in very-high-risk drinkers (P=0.005 vs. low-risk). Adjusted prevalence of diabetes was 6.0% in non-drinkers, 3.6% in low-risk (P<0.001 vs. non-drinkers), 3.8% in medium-to-high-risk and 6.7% in very-high-risk drinkers (P=0.046 vs. low-risk). Adjusted HOMA-IR was 2.47 in non-drinkers, 2.14 in low-risk (P<0.001 vs. non-drinkers), 2.27 in medium-to-high-risk and 2.53 in very-high-risk drinkers (P=0.04 vs. low-risk). These relationships did not differ according to beverage types. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol has a U-shaped relationship with the metabolic syndrome, diabetes and HOMA-IR, without differences between beverage types.

Comparison of the Behavioural Development of Infants at Low and High-Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorders

By identifying early signs of Autism Spectrum Disorder, early intervention or parent training could be implemented and assist in increasing the developmental trajectory for these infants. This cross sectional study used the Parent Observation of Early Markers Scale (POEMS) to identify early signs of ASD in 69 high-risk (older sibling diagnosed with ASD) and 69 matched low-risk infants' families (no family history of ASD) between 6 and 36 months of age. The preliminary results showed the high-risk children had significantly more elevated POEMS items than the low-risk children at 12, 18,24,30 and 36 months of age. The results suggest that at-risk infants may show signs of ASD as early as 12 months of age, and that the POEMS could be used to guide early intervention or parent training for children 12 months or older.

Reintroduction of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Muga and Fluvià basins (north-eastern Spain): viability, development, monitoring and trends of the new population

Aquesta tesi es basa en el programa de reintroducció de la llúdriga eurasiàtica (Lutra lutra) a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià (Catalunya) durant la segona meitat dels 1990s. Els objectius de la tesi foren demostrar la viabilitat de la reintroducció, demostrar l'èxit de la mateixa, estudiar aspectes ecològics i etològics de l'espècie, aprofitant l'oportunitat única de gaudir d'una població "de disseny" i determinar les probabilitats de supervivència de la població a llarg termini. La reintroducció de la llúdriga a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià va reeixir, doncs l'àrea geogràfica ocupada efectivament es va incrementar fins a un 64% d'estacions positives a l'hivern 2001-02. La troballa de tres exemplars adults nascuts a l'àrea de reintroducció és una altra prova que valida l'èxit del programa. La densitat d'exemplars calculada a través dels censos visuals ha resultat baixa (0.04-0.11 llúdrigues/km), però s'aproxima al que hom pot esperar en els primers estadis d'una població reintroduïda, encara poc nombrosa però distribuïda en una gran àrea. La mortalitat post-alliberament va ser del 22% un any després de l'alliberament, similar o inferior a la d'altres programes de reintroducció de llúdrigues reeixits. La mortalitat va ser deguda principalment a atropellaments (56%). El patró d'activitat de les llúdrigues reintroduïdes va esdevenir principalment nocturn i crepuscular, amb una escassa activitat diürna. Les seves àrees vitals van ser del mateix ordre (34,2 km) que les calculades en d'altres estudis realitzats a Europa. La longitud mitjana de riu recorreguda per una llúdriga durant 24 hores va ser de 4,2 km per les femelles i 7,6 km pels mascles. Durant el període de radioseguiment dues femelles van criar i els seus moviments van poder ser estudiats amb deteniment. La resposta de la nova població de llúdrigues a les fluctuacions estacionals en la disponibilitat d'aigua, habitual a les regions mediterrànies, va consistir en la concentració en una àrea menor durant el període de sequera estival, a causa de l'increment de trams secs, inhabitables per la llúdriga per la manca d'aliment, fet que va provocar expansions i contraccions periòdiques en l'àrea de distribució. La persistència a llarg termini de la població reintroduïda va ser estudiada mitjançant una Anàlisi de Viabilitat Poblacional (PVA). El resultat va ser un baix risc d'extinció de la població en els propers 100 anys i la majoria dels escenaris simulats (65%) van assolir el criteri d'un mínim de 90% de probabilitat de supervivència. Del model poblacional construït es dedueix que un punt clau per assegurar la viabilitat de la població reintroduïda és la reducció de la mortalitat accidental. A l'àrea d'estudi, els atropellaments causen més del 50% de la mortalitat i aquesta pot ser reduïda mitjançant la construcció de passos de fauna, el tancament lateral d'alguns trams de carretera perillosos i el control de la velocitat en algunes vies. El projecte de reintroducció ha posat a punt un protocol per a la captura, maneig i alliberament de llúdrigues salvatges, que pot contenir informació útil per a programes similars. També ha suposat una oportunitat única d'estudiar una població dissenyada artificialment i poder comparar diversos mètodes per estimar la distribució i la densitat de poblacions de llúdrigues. Per últim, la reintroducció portada a terme a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià ha aconseguit crear una nova població de llúdrigues, que persisteix en el temps, que es reprodueix regularment i que es dispersa progressivament, fins i tot a noves conques fluvials.

Mortgage loans and access to housing for low-income households in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Application of discriminant analysis-based model for prediction of risk of low back disorders due to workplace design in industrial jobs

The occupational exposure limits of different risk factors for development of low back disorders (LBDs) have not yet been established. One of the main problems in setting such guidelines is the limited understanding of how different risk factors for LBDs interact in causing injury, since the nature and mechanism of these disorders are relatively unknown phenomena. Industrial ergonomists' role becomes further complicated because the potential risk factors that may contribute towards the onset of LBDs interact in a complex manner, which makes it difficult to discriminate in detail among the jobs that place workers at high or low risk of LBDs. The purpose of this paper was to develop a comparative study between predictions based on the neural network-based model proposed by Zurada, Karwowski & Marras (1997) and a linear discriminant analysis model, for making predictions about industrial jobs according to their potential risk of low back disorders due to workplace design. The results obtained through applying the discriminant analysis-based model proved that it is as effective as the neural network-based model. Moreover, the discriminant analysis-based model proved to be more advantageous regarding cost and time savings for future data gathering.

Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinants of cesarean delivery, a population-based study in the Emilia Romagna Region

Cesarean Delivery (CD) rates are rising in many parts of the world. In order to define strategies to reduce them, it is important to explore the role of clinical and organizational factors. This thesis has the objective to describe the contemporary CD practice and study clinical and organizational variables as determinants of CD in all women who gave birth between 2005 and June 2010 in the Emilia Romagna region (Italy). All hospital discharge abstracts of women who delivered between 2005 and mid 2010 in the region were selected and linked with birth certificates. In addition to descriptive statistics, in order to study the role of clinical and organizational variables (teaching or non-teaching hospital, birth volumes, time and day of delivery) multilevel Poisson regression models and a classification tree were used. A substantial inter-hospital variability in CD rate was found, and this was only partially explained by the considered variables. The most important risk factors of CD were: previous CD (RR 4,95; 95%CI: 4,85-5,05), cord prolapse (RR 3,51; 95% CI:2,96-4,16), and malposition/malpresentation (RR 2,72; 95%CI: 2,66-2,77). Delivery between 7 pm and 7 am and during non working days protect against CD in all subgroups including those with a small number of elective CDs while delivery at a teaching hospital and birth volumes were not statistically significant risk factors. The classification tree shows that previous CD and malposition/malpresentation are the most important variables discriminating between high and low risk of CD. These results indicate that other not considered factors might explain CD variability and do not provide clear evidence that small hospitals have a poor performance in terms of CD rate. Some strategies to reduce CD could be found by focusing on the differences in delivery practice between day and night and between working and no-working day deliveries.

Clinical outcomes of patients with estimated low or intermediate surgical risk undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation

AimsTranscatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an established treatment alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement in high-risk and inoperable patients and outcomes among patients with estimated low or intermediate risk remain to be determined. The aim of this study was to assess clinical outcomes among patients with estimated low or intermediate surgical risk undergoing TAVI.Methods and resultsBetween August 2007 and October 2011, 389 consecutive patients underwent TAVI and were categorized according to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score into low (STS < 3%; n = 41, 10.5%), intermediate (STS ≥3% and ≤8%, n = 254, 65.3%), and high-risk (STS > 8%; n = 94, 24.2%) groups for the purpose of this study. Significant differences were found between the groups (low risk vs. intermediate risk vs. high risk) for age (78.2 ± 6.7 vs. 82.7 ± 5.7 vs. 83.7 ± 4.9, P < 0.001), body mass index (28.1 ± 6.1 vs. 26.5 ± 4.9 vs. 24.4 ± 4.6, P < 0.001), chronic renal failure (34 vs. 67 vs. 90%, P < 0.001), all-cause mortality at 30 days (2.4 vs. 3.9 vs. 14.9%, P = 0.001), and all-cause mortality at 1 year (10.1 vs. 16.1 vs. 34.5%, P = 0.0003). No differences were observed with regards to cerebrovascular accidents and myocardial infarction during 1-year follow-up.ConclusionIn contemporary practice, TAVI is not limited to inoperable or STS-defined high-risk patients and should be guided by the decision of an interdisciplinary Heart Team. Compared with patients at calculated high risk, well-selected patients with STS-defined intermediate or low risk appear to have favourable clinical outcomes.

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC risk individuals (Pra score >or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Behavioral and psychosocial factors associated with sexual risk in a population of crack cocaine users

The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relationship between key psychosocial and behavioral components of the Transtheoretical Model and the Theory of Reasoned Action for sexual risk reduction in a population of crack cocaine smokers and sex workers, not in drug treatment. ^ The first study examined the results of an analysis of the association between two principal constructs in the Transtheoretical Model, the processes of change and the stages of change for condom use, in a high risk population. In the analysis of variance for all respondents, the overall F-test revealed that people in different stages have different levels of experiential process use, F(3,317) = 17.79, p = 0.0001 and different levels of behavioral process use, F(3,317) = 28.59, p = .0001. For the experiential processes, there was a significant difference between the precontemplation/contemplation stage, and both the action, and maintenance, stages.^ The second study explored the relationship between the Theory of Reasoned Action “beliefs” and the stages-of-change in the same population. In the analysis of variance for all participants, the results indicate that people in different stages did value the positive beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 15.38, p = .0001 but did not value the negative beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 2.08, p = .10. ^ The third study explored differences in stage-of-change by gender, partner type drug use, and HIV status. Three discriminant functions emerged, with a combined χ2(12) = 139.57, p = <.0001. The loading matrix of correlations between predictors and discriminant functions demonstrate that the strongest predictor for distinguishing between the precontemplation/contemplation stage and the preparation, action, and maintenance stages (first function) is partner type (.962). The loadings on the second discriminant function suggest that once partner type has been accounted for, ever having HIV/AIDS (.935) was the best predictor for distinguishing between the first three stages and the maintenance stage. ^ These studies demonstrate that behavioral change theories can contribute important insight to researchers and program planners attempting to alter HIV risk behavior in high-risk populations. ^

Low Yield of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Screening in Hemodialysis Patients: 10 Years' Experience

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nasal colonization in hemodialysis patients and to analyze the cost-effectiveness of our screening approach compared with an alternative strategy. DESIGN Screening study and cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS Analysis of twice-yearly MRSA prevalence studies conducted in the hemodialysis unit of a 950-bed tertiary care hospital from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2013. For this purpose, nasal swab samples were cultured on MRSA screening agar (mannitol-oxacillin biplate). RESULTS There were 20 mass screenings during the 10-year study period. We identified 415 patients participating in at least 1 screening, with an average of 4.5 screenings per patient. Of 415 screened patients, 15 (3.6%) were found to be MRSA carriers. The first mass screening in 2004 yielded the highest percentage of MRSA (6/101 [6%]). Only 7 subsequent screenings revealed new MRSA carriers, whereas 4 screenings confirmed previously known carriers, and 8 remained negative. None of the carriers developed MRSA bacteremia during the study period. The total cost of our screening approach, that is, screening and isolation costs, was US $93,930. The total cost of an alternative strategy (ie, no mass screening administered) would be equivalent to costs of isolation of index cases and contact tracing was estimated to be US $5,382 (difference, US $88,548). CONCLUSIONS In an area of low MRSA endemicity (<5%), regular nasal screenings of a high-risk population yielded a low rate of MRSA carriers. Twice-yearly MRSA screening of dialysis patients is unlikely to be cost-effective if MRSA prevalence is low. Infect. Control Hosp. Epidemiol. 2015;00(0):1-4.