Phaeocystis colony distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean since 1948, and interpretation of long-term changes in the Phaeocystis hotspot in the North Sea

Monitoring of Phaeocystis since 1948 during the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey indicates that over the last 5.5 decades the distribution of its colonies in the North Atlantic Ocean was not restricted to neritic waters: occurrence was also recorded in the open Atlantic regions sampled, most frequently in the spring. Apparently, environmental conditions in open ocean waters, also those far oVshore, are suitable for complete lifecycle development of colonies (the only stage recorded in the survey). In the North Sea the frequency of occurrence was also highest in spring. Its southeastern part was the Phaeocystis abundance hotspot of the whole area covered by the survey. Frequency was especially high before the 1960s and after the 1980s, i.e., in the periods when anthropogenic nutrient enrichment was relatively low. Changes in eutrophication have obviously not been a major cause of long-term Phaeocystis variation in the southeastern North Sea, where total phytoplankton biomass was related signiWcantly to river discharge. Evidence is presented for the suggestion that Phaeocystis abundance in the southern North Sea is to a large extent determined by the amount of Atlantic Ocean water Xushed in through the Dover Strait. Since Phaeocystis plays a key role in element Xuxes relevant to climate the results presented here have implications for biogeochemical models of cycling of carbon and sulphur. Sea-to-air exchange of CO2 and dimethyl sulphide (DMS) has been calculated on the basis of measurements during single-year cruises. The considerable annual variation in phytoplankton and in its Phaeocystis component reported here does not warrant extrapolation of such figures.

Long-term changes in North Atlantic zooplankton biomass

New measures of zooplankton biomass have been derived from CPR samples in the North Atlantic from 1958 to 2005. The final aim was to investigate how the zooplankton standing stock had varied throughout the last decades, knowing that in different areas of the North Atlantic significant changes in the distribution of the dominant zooplankton species as well as the plankton assemblage have been observed. During the forty-five years of monitoring the contribution of the different groups (e.g. copepods, euphausiids, meroplankton larvae) to the total zooplankton biomass has been evaluated. The changes in the phenology of the biomass were also considered. The relationship between quantity, quality and seasonal timing of plankton and the poor fish recruitment seen in recent years in the North Sea are also discussed.

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea; evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10–20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.

Barriers to providing palliative care in long-term care facilities

OBJECTIVE: To assess challenges in providing palliative care in long-term care (LTC) facilities from the perspective of medical directors. DESIGN: Cross-sectional mailed survey. A questionnaire was developed, reviewed, pilot-tested, and sent to 450 medical directors representing 531 LTC facilities. Responses were rated on 2 different 5-point scales. Descriptive analyses were conducted on all responses. SETTING: All licensed LTC facilities in Ontario with designated medical directors. PARTICIPANTS: Medical directors in the facilities. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Demographic and practice characteristics of physicians and facilities, importance of potential barriers to providing palliative care, strategies that could be helpful in providing palliative care, and the kind of training in palliative care respondents had received. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-five medical directors (61%) representing 302 LTC facilities (57%) responded to the survey. Potential barriers to providing palliative care were clustered into 3 groups: facility staff's capacity to provide palliative care, education and support, and the need for external resources. Two thirds of respondents (67.1%) reported that inadequate staffing in their facilities was an important barrier to providing palliative care. Other barriers included inadequate financial reimbursement from the Ontario Health Insurance Program (58.5%), the heavy time commitment required (47.3%), and the lack of equipment in facilities (42.5%). No statistically significant relationship was found between geographic location or profit status of facilities and barriers to providing palliative care. Strategies respondents would use to improve provision of palliative care included continuing medical education (80.0%), protocols for assessing and monitoring pain (77.7%), finding ways to increase financial reimbursement for managing palliative care residents (72.1%), providing educational material for facility staff (70.7%), and providing practice guidelines related to assessing and managing palliative care patients (67.8%). CONCLUSION: Medical directors in our study reported that their LTC facilities were inadequately staffed and lacked equipment. The study also highlighted the specialized role of medical directors, who identified continuing medical education as a key strategy for improving provision of palliative care.

The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms.

Methotrexate polyglutamates as a potential marker of adherence to long-term therapy in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis and juvenile dermatomyositis: an observational, cross-sectional study

Introduction: Methotrexate (MTX) is a cornerstone of treatment in a wide variety of inflammatory conditions, including juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). However, owing to its narrow therapeutic index and the considerable interpatient variability in clinical response, monitoring of adherence to MTX is important. The present study demonstrates the feasibility of using methotrexate polyglutamates (MTXPGs) as a biomarker to measure adherence to MTX treatment in children with JIA and JDM.
Methods: Data were collected prospectively from a cohort of 48 children (median age 11.5 years) who received oral or subcutaneous (SC) MTX therapy for JIA or JDM. Dried blood spot samples were obtained from children by finger pick at the clinic or via self- or parent-led sampling at home, and they were analysed to determine the variability in MTXPG concentrations and assess adherence to MTX therapy.
Results: Wide fluctuations in MTXPG total concentrations (>2.0-fold variations) were found in 17 patients receiving stable weekly doses of MTX, which is indicative of nonadherence or partial adherence to MTX therapy. Age (P = 0.026) and route of administration (P = 0.005) were the most important predictors of nonadherence to MTX treatment. In addition, the study showed that MTX dose and route of administration were significantly associated with variations in the distribution of MTXPG subtypes. Higher doses and SC administration of MTX produced higher levels of total MTXPGs and selective accumulation of longer-chain MTXPGs (P < 0.001 and P < 0.0001, respectively).
Conclusions: Nonadherence to MTX therapy is a significant problem in children with JIA and JDM. The present study suggests that patients with inadequate adherence and/or intolerance to oral MTX may benefit from SC administration of the drug. The clinical utility of MTXPG levels to monitor and optimise adherence to MTX in children has been demonstrated.Trial Registration: ISRCTN Registry identifier: ISRCTN93945409 . Registered 2 December 2011.

Long-Term Trends of HIV Type 1 Drug Resistance Prevalence among Antiretroviral Treatment-Experienced Patients in Switzerland.

Background. Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. Methods. On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). Results. Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. Conclusions. Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

Effect of human disturbance on long-term habitat use and breeding success of the European Nightjar, Caprimulgus europaeus

Land managers often respond to declining numbers of target species by creating additional areas of habitat. If these habitats are also subject to human disturbance, then their efforts may be wasted. The European Nightjar (Caprimulgus europaeus) is a ground-nesting bird that is listed as a species of European Conservation Concern. It appears to be susceptible to human disturbance during the breeding season. We examined habitat use and reproductive success over 10 years in a breeding population on 1335 ha of managed land in Nottinghamshire, England. The study site was divided into a heavily disturbed section and a less disturbed section of equal habitat availability, forming a natural long-term experiment. The site is open to the public, and visitor numbers approximately doubled during the study. We found that overall Nightjar density was significantly lower and there were significantly fewer breeding pairs in the heavily disturbed habitat compared with the less disturbed habitat. However, average breeding success per pair, in terms of eggs and fledglings produced, was not significantly different between the two sections across years. Our findings suggest that human recreational disturbance may drastically alter settlement patterns and nest site selection of arriving females in some migratory ground-nesting species and may reduce the utility of apparently suitable patches of remnant and created habitat. Land managers should bear this in mind when creating new areas of habitat that will also be accessible to the public. Our study also highlights the value of long-term population monitoring, which can detect trends that short-term studies may miss.

Effect of manure application on crop yield and soil chemical properties in a long-term field trial of semi-arid Kenya

The sustainability of cereal/legume intercropping was assessed by monitoring trends in grain yield, soil organic C (SOC) and soil extractable P (Olsen method) measured over 13 years at a long-term field trial on a P-deficient soil in semi-arid Kenya. Goat manure was applied annually for 13 years at 0, 5 and 10 t ha(-1) and trends in grain yield were not identifiable because of season-to-season variations. SOC and Olsen P increased for the first seven years of manure application and then remained constant. The residual effect of manure applied for four years only lasted another seven to eight years when assessed by yield, SOC and Olsen P. Mineral fertilizers provided the same annual rates of N and P as in 5 t ha(-1) manure and initially ,gave the same yield as manure, declining after nine years to about 80%. Therefore, manure applications could be made intermittently and nutrient requirements topped-up with fertilizers. Grain yields for sorghum with continuous manure were described well by correlations with rainfall and manure input only, if data were excluded for seasons with over 500 mm rainfall. A comprehensive simulation model should correctly describe crop losses caused by excess water.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

An analysis of long-term trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics in water quality data from Plynlimon, Wales

This paper examines two hydrochemical time-series derived from stream samples taken in the Upper Hafren catchment, Plynlimon, Wales. One time-series comprises data collected at 7-hour intervals over 22 months (Neal et al., submitted, this issue), while the other is based on weekly sampling over 20 years. A subset of determinands: aluminium, calcium, chloride, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, iron, nitrate, pH, silicon and sulphate are examined within a framework of non-stationary time-series analysis to identify determinand trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics. The results demonstrate that both long-term and high-frequency monitoring provide valuable and unique insights into the hydrochemistry of a catchment. The long-term data allowed analysis of long-termtrends, demonstrating continued increases in DOC concentrations accompanied by declining SO4 concentrations within the stream, and provided new insights into the changing amplitude and phase of the seasonality of the determinands such as DOC and Al. Additionally, these data proved invaluable for placing the short-term variability demonstrated within the high-frequency data within context. The 7-hour data highlighted complex diurnal cycles for NO3, Ca and Fe with cycles displaying changes in phase and amplitude on a seasonal basis. The high-frequency data also demonstrated the need to consider the impact that the time of sample collection can have on the summary statistics of the data and also that sampling during the hours of darkness provides additional hydrochemical information for determinands which exhibit pronounced diurnal variability. Moving forward, this research demonstrates the need for both long-term and high-frequency monitoring to facilitate a full and accurate understanding of catchment hydrochemical dynamics.

Evaluation of adverse effects of long-term oral administration of carprofen, etodolac, flunixin meglumine, ketoprofen, and meloxicam in dogs

Objective - To evaluate adverse effects of long-term oral administration of carprofen, etodolac, flunixin meglumine, ketoprofen, and meloxicam in dogs. Animals - 36 adult dogs. Procedures - Values for CBC, urinalysis, serum biochemical urinalyses, and occult blood in feces were investigated before and 7, 30, 60, and 90 days after daily oral administration (n = 6 dogs/group) of lactose (1 mg/kg, control treatment), etodolac (15 mg/kg), meloxicam (0.1 mg/kg), carprofen (4 mg/kg), and ketoprofen (2 mg/kg for 4 days, followed by 1 mg/kg daily thereafter) or flunixin (1 mg/kg for 3 days, with 4-day intervals). Gastroscopy was performed before and after the end of treatment. Results - For serum γ-glutamyltransferase activity, values were significantly increased at day 30 in dogs treated with lactose, etodolac, and meloxicam within groups. Bleeding time was significantly increased in dogs treated with carprofen at 30 and 90 days, compared with baseline. At 7 days, bleeding time was significantly longer in dogs treated with meloxicam, ketoprofen, and flunixin, compared with control dogs. Clotting time increased significantly in all groups except those treated with etodolac. At day 90, clotting time was significantly shorter in flunixin-treated dogs, compared with lactose-treated dogs. Gastric lesions were detected in all dogs treated with etodolac, ketoprofen, and flunixin, and 1 of 6 treated with carprofen. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance - Carprofen induced the lowest frequency of gastrointestinal adverse effects, followed by meloxicam. Monitoring for adverse effects should be considered when nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are used to treat dogs with chronic pain.

Long-term effects of oil pollution in mangrove forests (Baixada Santista, Southeast Brazil) detected using a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs

Oil spills are potential threats to the integrity of highly productive coastal wetlands, such as mangrove forests. In October 1983, a mangrove area of nearly 300 ha located on the southeastern coast of Brazil was impacted by a 3.5 million liter crude oil spill released by a broken pipeline. In order to assess the long-term effects of oil pollution on mangrove vegetation, we carried out a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs of the years 1962, 1994, 2000 and 2003. Photointerpretation, visual classification, class quantification, ground-truth and vegetation structure data were combined to evaluate the oil impact. Before the spill, the mangroves exhibited a homogeneous canopy and well-developed stands. More than ten years after the spill, the mangrove vegetation exhibited three distinct zones reflecting the long-term effects of the oil pollution. The most impacted zone (10.5 ha) presented dead trees, exposed substrate and recovering stands with reduced structural development. We suggest that the distinct impact and recovery zones reflect the spatial variability of oil removal rates in the mangrove forest. This study identifies the multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs as a useful tool for assessing a system's capacity for recovery and monitoring the long-term residual effects of pollutants on vegetation dynamics, thus giving support to mangrove forest management and conservation.

Fragmentation of extracellular DNA by long-term exposure to radiation from uranium in aquatic environments

Persistent harmful scenarios associated with disposal of radioactive waste, high-background radiation areas and severe nuclear accidents are of great concern regarding consequences to both human health and the environment. Of particular concern is the extracellular DNA in aquatic environments contaminated by radiological substances. Strand breaks induced by radiation promote decrease in the transformation efficiency for extracellular DNA. The focus of this study is the quantification of DNA damage following long-term exposure (over one year) to low doses of natural uranium (an alpha particle emitter) to simulate natural conditions, since nothing is known about alpha radiation induced damage to extracellular DNA. A high-resolution Atomic Force Microscope was used to evaluate DNA fragments. Double-stranded plasmid pBS as a model for extracellular DNA was exposed to different amounts of natural uranium. It was demonstrated that low concentrations of U in water (50 to 150 ppm) produce appreciable numbers of double strand breaks, scaling with the square of the average doses. The importance of these findings for environment monitoring of radiological pollution is addressed.

Long-term effects of oil pollution in mangrove forests (Baixada Santista, Southeast Brazil) detected using a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs

Oil spills are potential threats to the integrity of highly productive coastal wetlands, such as mangrove forests. In October 1983, a mangrove area of nearly 300 ha located on the southeastern coast of Brazil was impacted by a 3.5 million liter crude oil spill released by a broken pipeline. In order to assess the long-term effects of oil pollution on mangrove vegetation, we carried out a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs of the years 1962, 1994, 2000 and 2003. Photointerpretation, visual classification, class quantification, ground-truth and vegetation structure data were combined to evaluate the oil impact. Before the spill, the mangroves exhibited a homogeneous canopy and well-developed stands. More than ten years after the spill, the mangrove vegetation exhibited three distinct zones reflecting the long-term effects of the oil pollution. The most impacted zone (10.5 ha) presented dead trees, exposed substrate and recovering stands with reduced structural development. We suggest that the distinct impact and recovery zones reflect the spatial variability of oil removal rates in the mangrove forest. This study identifies the multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs as a useful tool for assessing a system's capacity for recovery and monitoring the long-term residual effects of pollutants on vegetation dynamics, thus giving support to mangrove forest management and conservation.