An input-output approach for measuring real estate sector linkages

This research aims to measure and compare the total, backward, forward, internal and sectoral linkages of the real estate sector using the hypothetical extraction method over 30 years and explore the role of this sector in national economies and the quantitative interdependence between the real estate sector and the remaining sectors from a new angle. Empirical results show an increasing trend of these linkages, which confirms the increasing role of the real estate sector with economic maturity over the examined period. On the other hand, the significant rank correlations in the linkages imply that the importance of real estate remained fairly stable among highly developed economies over the examined period. This may supply a tool to signal the maturity of an entire economy. Furthermore, the findings can aid both governments making relative policies and businesses choosing strategic partners and location strategies.

The Australian construction linkages in the 1990s

Abstract: During the 1990s, the construction sector played an important role with its growing contributions to the gross national product, gross domestic product and employment in the Australian economy. Using the newly released 1998-99 input-output table and four previously published tables by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, this paper aims to measure the sectoral linkages of the Australian construction sector in the 1990s in relation to other industrial countries. Results describe the increase in construction volume was mainly due to the increase in governmental and non-residential construction expenditures and lagging construction technology. The technical level of the non-residential construction sub-sector was a drag to the total construction, while the non-residential construction sub-sector presented a stronger economic push than that of the residential construction sub-sector. In the 1990s, the inputs and outputs' components of the construction sector were stable. The linkages of the Australian construction sector are discussed from an international point of view.

Modelling linkages between Australian financial futures markets

This paper investigates the dynamic interdependence of the Australian financial futures markets. A multivariate EGARCH model is developed to investigate linkages and stochastic volatility interactions between the 10-year Treasury bond, 90-day bank-accepted bill, and the All Ordinaries share price index futures markets. In this analysis, the empirical results strongly suggest that significant volatility interactions are evident across the 3 markets.

Exploring intersectoral linkages between real estate and construction

Even though linkages have attracted a lot of research interest, few researchers focus on the intersectoral linkages between two specific sectors. This research therefore proposes an indirect intersectoral linkage measure model to explore linkages between the real estate and construction sectors using the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM). Using the OECD input-output tables, the direct, total intersectoral linkages and the proposed indirect intersectoral linkages are explored and tested respectively for seven OECD countries over twenty years. The findings describe that the intersectoral linkages from construction to real estate are larger than those from real estate to construction. The statistical testing results imply that the proposed indirect intersectoral linkage measure method seems to be appropriate to analyse the intersectoral linkage between the construction and real estate sectors.

Identifying linkages between generations and the property market : the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important. they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually generate the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation and the trend towards geographical relocation had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X,Y and Z. This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in arange of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends.The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets. it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.

Identifying linkages between generations and community development: the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important, they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually provide the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation shift had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X, Y and Z.

This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in a range of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends. The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.

Economic linkages across commodity futures : hedging and trading implications

We investigate cross-market trading dynamics in futures contracts written on seemingly unrelated commodities that are consumed by a common industry. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, we find such evidence in natural rubber (NR), palladium (PA) and gasoline (GA) futures markets. The automobile industry is responsible for more than 50% of global demand for each of these commodities. VAR estimation reveals short-run cross-market interaction between NR and GA, and from NR to PA. Cross-market influence exerted by PA is felt in longer dynamics, with PA volatility (volume) affecting NR (GA) volume (volatility). Our findings are robust to lag-specification, volatility measure, and consistent with full BEKK-GARCH estimation results. Further analysis, which benchmarks against silver futures market, TOCOM index and TOPIX transportation index, confirms that our results are driven by a common industry exposure, and not a commodity market factor. A simple trading rule that incorporates short-run GA and long-run PA dynamics to predict NR return yields positive economic profit. Our study offers new insights into how commodity and equity markets relate at an industry level, and implications for multi-commodity hedging.

Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets : common stochastic trends and regime shifts

This paper examines whether the Australian equity market is integrated with the equity markets of the G7 economies by applying both the Johansen (Statistical analysis of conintegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54, 1988) and Gregory and Hansen (Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126, 1996) approaches to cointegration. Some evidence of a pairwise long-run relationship between the Australian stock market and the stock markets of Canada, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom is found, but the Australian equity market is not pairwise cointegrated with the equity markets of France, Germany or the USA.

Interdependence and dynamic linkages between the emerging stock markets of South Asia

The present article examines the dynamic linkages between the stock markets
of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a temporal Granger causality
approach by binding the relationship among the stock price indices within a
multivariate cointegration framework. We also examine the impulse response
functions. Our main finding is that in the long run, stock prices in Bangladesh,
India and Sri Lanka Granger-cause stock prices in Pakistan. In the short run
there is unidirectional Granger causality running from stock prices in Pakistan
to India, stock prices in Sri Lanka to India and from stock prices in Pakistan to
Sri Lanka. Bangladesh is the most exogenous of the four markets, reflecting its
small size and modest market capitalization.

Ecological linkages in the Bonney Upwelling blue whale feeding area

This research has described linkages between the cold-water Bonney Upwelling of south-east Australia, associated primary and secondary biological production, and the presence of feeding blue whales Balaenoptera musculus. This is a previously undescribed, seasonally predictable blue whale feeding area, where whales prey on abundant swarms of krill Nyctiphanes australis.

Comparing different economic linkages among commodity futures

Gasoline (GA) and kerosene (KO) are extracted from crude oil (CO), such that the three fuel commodities share a chemical link. On the other hand, GA also shares an industrial link with natural rubber (NR) and palladium (PA) as complementary commodities that are heavily consumed by the automobile industry. We contrast the information content embedded in the two economic linkages. Focusing on TOCOM futures contracts written on the five commodities and centering on GA, we confirm that incremental information provided by either CO, KO or NR, PA over a buy-and-hold strategy and a naive forecast, are both statistically and economically significant. While the chemical link forecast is more profitable, a double-link forecast generated from a VECM with two cointegrating vectors (KO-GA and GANR prices) outperforms both single-link forecasts based on risk-adjusted profit net of transaction costs. Further comparisons against the profitability of commodity-based momentum strategies documented in Erb and Harvey (2006) and Miffre and Rallis (2007) show that the double-link forecast holds its own against the most profitable of the 75 momentum strategies considered. This strongly suggests that not only are there incremental profits to be gained from harnessing and combining economic links among commodity futures, the resultant incremental profits are economically significant against other proven commodity-based trading strategies in the existing literature.