Jornalismo impresso na era da internet: como funciona a redação do jornal Correio do Estado, de Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul

Pós-graduação em Comunicação - FAAC

Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Analisi di grafi su architetture a memoria distribuita

Questo lavoro di tesi tratta il tema delle reti complesse, mostrando i principali modelli di rete complessa quali: il modello Random, il modello Small-World ed il modello Scale-free; si introdurranno alcune metriche usate per descrivere le reti complesse quali la Degree centrality, la Closeness centrality e la Betweenness centrality; si descriveranno i problemi da tenere in considerazione durante la definizione e l’implementazione di algoritmi su grafi; i modelli di calcolo su cui progettare gli algoritmi per risolvere i problemi su grafi; un’analisi prestazionale degli algoritmi proposti per calcolare i valori di Beweenness centrality su grafi di medio-grandi dimensioni. Parte di questo lavoro di tesi è consistito nello sviluppo di LANA, LArge-scale Network Analyzer, un software che permette il calcolo e l’analisi di varie metriche di centralità su grafo.

Data dissemination over complex networks through gossip

This thesis offers a practical and theoretical evaluations about gossip-epidemic algorithms, comparing those most common in the literature with new proposed algorithms and analyzing their behavior. Tests have been executed using one hundred graphs that has been randomly generated by Large Unstructured NEtwork Simulator (LUNES), a simulation software provided by Parallel and Distributed Simulation Research Group (PADS), of the Department of Computer Science, Università di Bologna and simulated using Advanced RTI System (ARTÌS), based on the High Level Architecture standard. Literatures algorithms have been analyzed and taken as base for new algorithms.

Stationary states in random walks on networks

In this thesis we dealt with the problem of describing a transportation network in which the objects in movement were subject to both finite transportation capacity and finite accomodation capacity. The movements across such a system are realistically of a simultaneous nature which poses some challenges when formulating a mathematical description. We tried to derive such a general modellization from one posed on a simplified problem based on asyncronicity in particle transitions. We did so considering one-step processes based on the assumption that the system could be describable through discrete time Markov processes with finite state space. After describing the pre-established dynamics in terms of master equations we determined stationary states for the considered processes. Numerical simulations then led to the conclusion that a general system naturally evolves toward a congestion state when its particle transition simultaneously and we consider one single constraint in the form of network node capacity. Moreover the congested nodes of a system tend to be located in adjacent spots in the network, thus forming local clusters of congested nodes.

Industrial Restructuring in the Budapest agglomeration

The major 'motor' of the recent Hungarian industrial development has been foreign direct investment, particularly by multinational companies. This has stimulated the development process, as shown by the dynamism of production, exports and profitability of industry in Budapest. On the other hand, this has also led to a split of the industrial sphere into its foreign and domestic sections, or into foreign-owned companies and domestic SMEs. The major question asked in this project is where is Hungarian industry heading and will the gap between the contracting domestic part and the foreign multinationals continue to widen or will they be joined in a much more favourable scenario. Barta sees this as a question of whether Hungary can avoid the 'dead-end street' of South Asian industrialising countries, and instead move towards a new Eastern European or Hungarian model. He concludes that Budapest industry does not follow any given model and indeed its development probably cannot be seen as a 'model' proper in itself, but is, or will be, a mixture of different elements. This would be a welcome fusion of Hungary's rich human resources of accumulated knowledge with foreign direct investment. Budapest would play an exceptional role in such a process, as the gateway for foreign output to the rest of the country. The share of industry in the Budapest economy will continue to decrease, but it will become a more modern and profitable sector. It will also fulfil a technological transfer role between the developed world and the Hungarian countryside (or even a larger region of central and eastern Europe). Barta predicts that Budapest industry will develop a special structure, with a large subcontractor network supporting the large foreign enterprises, and alongside this industrial districts formed by SMEs.

Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR BIOFUEL FACILITY SIZE AND LOCATION AND A SIMULATION MODEL FOR DESIGN OF A BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN

A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.

Climate sensitivity of Mediterranean pine growth reveals distinct east-west dipole

The European Mediterranean region is governed by a characteristic climate of summer drought that is likely to increase in duration and intensity under predicted climate change. However, large-scale network analyses investigating spatial aspects of pre-instrumental drought variability for this biogeographic zone are still scarce. In this study we introduce 54 mid- to high-elevation tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies comprising 2186 individual series from pine trees (Pinus spp.). This compilation spans a 4000-km east–west transect from Spain to Turkey, and was subjected to quality control and standardization prior to the development of site chronologies. A principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify spatial growth patterns during the network's common period 1862–1976, and new composite TRW chronologies were developed and investigated. The PCA reveals a common variance of 19.7% over the 54 Mediterranean pine chronologies. More interestingly, a dipole pattern in growth variability is found between the western (15% explained variance) and eastern (9.6%) sites, persisting back to 1330 AD. Pine growth on the Iberian Peninsula and Italy favours warm early growing seasons, but summer drought is most critical for ring width formation in the eastern Mediterranean region. Synoptic climate dynamics that have been in operation for the last seven centuries have been identified as the driving mechanism of a distinct east–west dipole in the growth variability of Mediterranean pines.

Minimal invasive extracorporeal circulation should become the standard practice in coronary revascularization surgery†.

We read with great interest the large-scale network meta-analysis by Kowalewski et al. comparing clinical outcomes of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) operated on using minimal invasive extracorporeal circulation (MiECC) or off-pump (OPCAB) with those undergoing surgery on conventional cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) [1]. The authors actually integrated into single study two recently published meta-analysis comparing MiECC and OPCAB with conventional CPB, respectively [2, 3] into a single study. According to the results of this study, MiECC and OPCAB are both strongly associated with improved perioperative outcomes following CABG when compared with CABG performed on conventional CPB. The authors conclude that MiECC may represent an attractive compromise between OPCAB and conventional CPB. After carefully reading the whole manuscript, it becomes evident that the role of MiECC is clearly undervalued. Detailed statistical analysis using the surface under the cumulative ranking probabilities indicated that MiECC represented the safer and more effective intervention regarding all-cause mortality and protection from myocardial infarction, cerebral stroke, postoperative atrial fibrillation and renal dysfunction when compared with OPCAB. Even though no significant statistical differences were demonstrated between MiECC and OPCAB, the superiority of MiECC is obvious by the hierarchy of treatments in the probability analysis, which ranked MiECC as the first treatment followed by OPCAB and conventional CPB. Thus, MiECC does not represent a compromise between OPCAB and conventional CPB, but an attractive dominant technique in CABG surgery. These results are consistent with the largest published meta-analysis by Anastasiadis et al. comparing MiECC versus conventional CPB including a total of 2770 patients. A significant decrease in mortality was observed when MiECC was used, which was also associated with reduced risk of postoperative myocardial infarction and neurological events [4]. Similarly, another recent meta-analysis by Benedetto et al. compared MiECC versus OPCAB and resulted in comparable outcomes between these two surgical techniques [5]. As stated in the text, superiority of MiECC observed in the current network meta-analysis, when compared with OPCAB, could be attributed to the fact that MiECC offers the potential for complete revascularization, whereas OPCAB poses a challenge for unexperienced surgeons; especially when distal marginal branches on the lateral and/or posterior wall of the heart need revascularization. This is reflected by a significantly lower number of distal anastomoses performed in OPCAB when compared with conventional CPB. Therefore, taking into consideration the literature published up to date, including the results of the current article, we advocate that MiECC should be integrated in the clinical practice guidelines as a state-of-the-art technique and become a standard practice for perfusion in coronary revascularization surgery.

Correlation Dimension of Complex Networks

We propose a new measure to characterize the dimension of complex networks based on the ergodic theory of dynamical systems. This measure is derived from the correlation sum of a trajectory generated by a random walker navigating the network, and extends the classical Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm to the context of complex networks. The method is validated with reliable results for both synthetic networks and real-world networks such as the world air-transportation network or urban networks, and provides a computationally fast way for estimating the dimensionality of networks which only relies on the local information provided by the walkers.

Reduced carbon and energy footprint in highway operations: the Highway Energy Assessment (HERA) methodology

Global demand for mobility is increasing and the environmental impact of transport has become an important issue in transportation network planning and decision-making, as well as in the operational management phase. Suitable methods are required to assess emissions and fuel consumption reduction strategies that seek to improve energy efficiency and furthering decarbonization. This study describes the development and application of an improved modeling framework – the HERA (Highway EneRgy Assessment) methodology – that enables to assess the energy and carbon footprint of different highways and traffic flow scenarios and their comparison. HERA incorporates an average speed consumption model adjusted with a correction factor which takes into account the road gradient. It provides a more comprehensive method for estimating the footprint of particular highway segments under specific traffic conditions. It includes the application of the methodology to the Spanish highway network to validate it. Finally, a case study shows the benefits from using this methodology and how to integrate the objective of carbon footprint reductions into highway design, operation and scenario comparison.

Boston 2000: harbor nodes, modes & links

Shows transportation network in and around the harbor.

Analyse de la distribution d'Escherichia coli, utilisée comme un marqueur microbiologique, dans un réseau de production porcin

La présence d’Escherichia coli pathogènes en élevages porcins entraine des retards de croissance et la mortalité. La transmission des E. coli pathogènes entre les élevages et l'abattoir d’un même réseau de production n'est pas bien décrite. La détection des gènes de virulence des E. coli pathogènes pourrait permettre d’identifier un marqueur de contamination dans le réseau. L’objectif de cette étude a été d’identifier un marqueur de contamination E. coli dans un réseau de production porcine défini afin de décrire certains modes de transmission des E. coli pathogènes. Pour ce faire, une région géographique comprenant 10 fermes d’engraissement, un abattoir et un réseau de transport a été sélectionnée. Trois lots de production consécutifs par ferme ont été suivis pendant 12 mois. Des échantillons environnementaux ont été prélevés à l’intérieur et à l’extérieur des fermes (3 visites d’élevage), dans la cour de l’abattoir (2 visites lors de sorties de lot) et sur le camion de transport. La détection des gènes de virulence (eltB, estA, estB, faeG, stxA, stx2A, eae, cnf, papC, iucD, tsh, fedA) dans les échantillons a été réalisée par PCR multiplexe conventionnelle. La distribution temporelle et spatiale des gènes de virulence a permis d’identifier le marqueur de contamination ETEC/F4 défini par la détection d’au moins un gène d’entérotoxine ETEC (estB, estA et eltB) en combinaison avec le gène de l’adhésine fimbriaire (faeG). La distribution des échantillons positifs ETEC/F4 qualifie la cour de l’abattoir comme un réservoir de contamination fréquenté par les transporteurs, vecteurs de contamination entre les élevages. Ceci suggère le lien microbiologique entre l’élevage, les transporteurs et l’abattoir jouant chacun un rôle dans la dissémination des microorganismes pathogènes et potentiellement zoonotiques en production porcine.

Neural networks for perpetual grouping

A number of researchers have investigated the application of neural networks to visual recognition, with much of the emphasis placed on exploiting the network's ability to generalise. However, despite the benefits of such an approach it is not at all obvious how networks can be developed which are capable of recognising objects subject to changes in rotation, translation and viewpoint. In this study, we suggest that a possible solution to this problem can be found by studying aspects of visual psychology and in particular, perceptual organisation. For example, it appears that grouping together lines based upon perceptually significant features can facilitate viewpoint independent recognition. The work presented here identifies simple grouping measures based on parallelism and connectivity and shows how it is possible to train multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) to detect and determine the perceptual significance of any group presented. In this way, it is shown how MLPs which are trained via backpropagation to perform individual grouping tasks, can be brought together into a novel, large scale network capable of determining the perceptual significance of the whole input pattern. Finally the applicability of such significance values for recognition is investigated and results indicate that both the NILP and the Kohonen Feature Map can be trained to recognise simple shapes described in terms of perceptual significances. This study has also provided an opportunity to investigate aspects of the backpropagation algorithm, particularly the ability to generalise. In this study we report the results of various generalisation tests. In applying the backpropagation algorithm to certain problems, we found that there was a deficiency in performance with the standard learning algorithm. An improvement in performance could however, be obtained when suitable modifications were made to the algorithm. The modifications and consequent results are reported here.