829 resultados para integrated nested Laplace approximation


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This book chapter represents a synthesis of the work which started in my PhD and which has been the conceptual basis for all of my research since 1993. The chapter presents a method for scientists and managers to use for selecting the type of remotely sensed data to use to meet their information needs associated with a mapping, monitoring or modelling application. The work draws on results from several of my ARC projects, CRC Rainforest and Coastal projects and theses of P.Scarth , K.Joyce and C.Roelfsema.

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Tick-borne zoonoses (TBZ) are emerging diseases worldwide. A large amount of information (e.g. case reports, results of epidemiological surveillance, etc.) is dispersed through various reference sources (ISI and non-ISI journals, conference proceedings, technical reports, etc.). An integrated database-derived from the ICTTD-3 project (http://www.icttd.nl)-was developed in order to gather TBZ records in the (sub-)tropics, collected both by the authors and collaborators worldwide. A dedicated website (http://www.tickbornezoonoses.org) was created to promote collaboration and circulate information. Data collected are made freely available to researchers for analysis by spatial methods, integrating mapped ecological factors for predicting TBZ risk. The authors present the assembly process of the TBZ database: the compilation of an updated list of TBZ relevant for (sub-)tropics, the database design and its structure, the method of bibliographic search, the assessment of spatial precision of geo-referenced records. At the time of writing, 725 records extracted from 337 publications related to 59 countries in the (sub-)tropics, have been entered in the database. TBZ distribution maps were also produced. Imported cases have been also accounted for. The most important datasets with geo-referenced records were those on Spotted Fever Group rickettsiosis in Latin-America and Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever in Africa. The authors stress the need for international collaboration in data collection to update and improve the database. Supervision of data entered remains always necessary. Means to foster collaboration are discussed. The paper is also intended to describe the challenges encountered to assemble spatial data from various sources and to help develop similar data collections.

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Neonatal calf diarrhea is a multi-etiology syndrome of cattle and direct detection of the two major agents of the syndrome, group A rotavirus and Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) is hampered by their fastidious growth in cell culture. This study aimed at developing a multiplex semi-nested RT-PCR for simultaneous detection of BCoV (N gene) and group A rotavirus (VP1 gene) with the addition of an internal control (mRNA ND5). The assay was tested in 75 bovine feces samples tested previously for rotavirus using PAGE and for BCoV using nested RT-PCR targeted to RdRp gene. Agreement with reference tests was optimal for BCoV (kappa = 0.833) and substantial for rotavirus detection (kappa = 0.648). the internal control, ND5 mRNA, was detected successfully in all reactions. Results demonstrated that this multiplex semi-nested RT-PCR was effective in the detection of BCoV and rotavirus, with high sensitivity and specificity for simultaneous detection of both viruses at a lower cost, providing an important tool for studies on the etiology of diarrhea in cattle. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A standardised nested-PCR method that amplifies a region of the glycoprotein E gene of avian infectious laryngotracheitis virus (ILTV) has been developed for the diagnosis of infection by Gallid herpesvirus 1. The two sets of primers employed produced the expected ampIification products of 524bp(externa I primers) and 219bp (internal primers) in the presence of ILTV DNA, whereas no Such amplicons were obtained with other avian respiratory pathogens or with DNA extracted from the cells of uninfected chickens. The identity of the 219bp amplified product was con firmed by DNA sequencing. The standardised nested-PCR method detected ILTV DNA from trachea, lung, conjunctiva and trigeminal ganglia samples from flocks of birds with and without clinical signs. and showed hi.-h sensitivity (95.4%) and specificity (93.1%) when compared with the reference test involving virus isolation in specific-pathogen-free chicken embryos. The standardised nested-PCR method described may be used to detect clinical and latent ILTV infections, and will be of significant value for both diagnostic and epidemiological Studies. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The cost and risk associated with mineral exploration in Australia increases significantly as companies move into deeper regolith-covered terrain. The ability to map the bedrock and the depth of weathering within an area has the potential to decrease this risk and increase the effectiveness of exploration programs. This paper is the second in a trilogy concerning the Grant's Patch area of the Eastern Goldfields. The recent development of the VPmg potential field inversion program in conjunction with the acquisition of high-resolution gravity data over an area with extensive drilling provided an opportunity to evaluate three-dimensional gravity inversion as a bedrock and regolith mapping tool. An apparent density model of the study area was constructed, with the ground represented as adjoining 200 m by 200 m vertical rectangular prisms. During inversion VPmg incrementally adjusted the density of each prism until the free-air gravity response of the model replicated the observed data. For the Grant's Patch study area, this image of the apparent density values proved easier to interpret than the Bouguer gravity image. A regolith layer was introduced into the model and realistic fresh-rock densities assigned to each basement prism according to its interpreted lithology. With the basement and regolith densities fixed, the VPmg inversion algorithm adjusted the depth to fresh basement until the misfit between the calculated and observed gravity response was minimised. The resulting geometry of the bedrock/regolith contact largely replicated the base of weathering indicated by drilling with predicted depth of weathering values from gravity inversion typically within 15% of those logged during RAB and RC drilling.

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The Brisbane River and Moreton Bay Study, an interdisciplinary study of Moreton Bay and its major tributaries, was initiated to address water quality issues which link sewage and diffuse loading with environmental degradation. Runoff and deposition of fine-grained sediments into Moreton Bay, followed by resuspension, have been linked with increased turbidity and significant loss of seagrass habitat. Sewage-derived nutrient enrichment, particularly nitrogen (N), has been linked to algal blooms by sewage plume maps. Blooms of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay have resulted in significant impacts on human health (e.g., contact dermatitis) and ecological health (e.g., seagrass loss), and the availability of dissolved iron from acid sulfate soil runoff has been hypothesised. The impacts of catchment activities resulting in runoff of sediments, nutrients and dissolved iron on the health of the Moreton Bay waterways are addressed. The Study, established by 6 local councils in association with two state departments in 1994, forms a regional component of a national and state program to achieve ecologically sustainable use of the waterways by protecting and enhancing their health, while maintaining economic and social development. The Study framework illustrates a unique integrated approach to water quality management whereby scientific research, community participation and the strategy development were done in parallel with each other. This collaborative effort resulted in a water quality management strategy which focuses on the integration of socioeconomic and ecological values of the waterways. This work has led to significant cost savings in infrastructure by providing a clear focus on initiatives towards achieving healthy waterways. The Study's Stage 2 initiatives form the basis for this paper.

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Effluent water from shrimp ponds typically contains elevated concentrations of dissolved nutrients and suspended particulates compared to influent water. Attempts to improve effluent water quality using filter feeding bivalves and macroalgae to reduce nutrients have previously been hampered by the high concentration of clay particles typically found in untreated pond effluent. These particles inhibit feeding in bivalves and reduce photosynthesis in macroalgae by increasing effluent turbidity. In a small-scale laboratory study, the effectiveness of a three-stage effluent treatment system was investigated. In the first stage, reduction in particle concentration occurred through natural sedimentation. In the second stage, filtration by the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea commercialis (Iredale and Roughley), further reduced the concentration of suspended particulates, including inorganic particles, phytoplankton, bacteria, and their associated nutrients. In the final stage, the macroalga, Gracilaria edulis (Gmelin) Silva, absorbed dissolved nutrients. Pond effluent was collected from a commercial shrimp farm, taken to an indoor culture facility and was left to settle for 24 h. Subsamples of water were then transferred into laboratory tanks stocked with oysters and maintained for 24 h, and then transferred to tanks containing macroalgae for another 24 h. Total suspended solid (TSS), chlorophyll a, total nitrogen (N), total phosphorus (P), NH4+, NO3-, and PO43-, and bacterial numbers were compared before and after each treatment at: 0 h (initial); 24 h (after sedimentation); 48 h (after oyster filtration); 72 h (after macroalgal absorption). The combined effect of the sequential treatments resulted in significant reductions in the concentrations of all parameters measured. High rates of nutrient regeneration were observed in the control tanks, which did not contain oysters or macroalgae. Conversely, significant reductions in nutrients and suspended particulates after sedimentation and biological treatment were observed. Overall, improvements in water quality (final percentage of the initial concentration) were as follows: TSS (12%); total N (28%); total P (14%); NH4+ (76%); NO3- (30%); PO43-(35%); bacteria (30%); and chlorophyll a (0.7%). Despite the probability of considerable differences in sedimentation, filtration and nutrient uptake rates when scaled to farm size, these results demonstrate that integrated treatment has the potential to significantly improve water quality of shrimp farm effluent. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Loss networks have long been used to model various types of telecommunication network, including circuit-switched networks. Such networks often use admission controls, such as trunk reservation, to optimize revenue or stabilize the behaviour of the network. Unfortunately, an exact analysis of such networks is not usually possible, and reduced-load approximations such as the Erlang Fixed Point (EFP) approximation have been widely used. The performance of these approximations is typically very good for networks without controls, under several regimes. There is evidence, however, that in networks with controls, these approximations will in general perform less well. We propose an extension to the EFP approximation that gives marked improvement for a simple ring-shaped network with trunk reservation. It is based on the idea of considering pairs of links together, thus making greater allowance for dependencies between neighbouring links than does the EFP approximation, which only considers links in isolation.

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The numerical implementation of the complex image approach for the Green's function of a mixed-potential integralequation formulation is examined and is found to be limited to low values of k(0) rho (in this context k(0) rho = 2 pirho/ lambda(0), where rho is the distance between the source and the field points of the Green's function and lambda(0) is the free space wavelength). This is a clear limitation for problems of large dimension or high frequency where this limit is easily exceeded. This paper examines the various strategies and proposes a hybrid method whereby most of the above problems can be avoided. An efficient integral method that is valid for large k(0) rho is combined with the complex image method in order to take advantage of the relative merits of both schemes. It is found that a wide overlapping region exists between the two techniques allowing a very efficient and consistent approach for accurately calculating the Green's functions. In this paper, the method developed for the computation of the Green's function is used for planar structures containing both lossless and lossy media.

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The detection of viable myocardium has important implications for management, but use of stress echocardiography to detect this is subjective and requires exposure to dobutamine. We investigated whether cyclic variation (CV) of integrated backscatter (IB) from the apical views could provide a resting study for detection of contractile reserve (CR) and prediction of myocardial viability in 27 patients with chronic ischemic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. Repeat echocardiography was performed after 6.7 +/- 3.8 months of follow-up; 14 patients underwent revascularization and 13 were treated medically. Using a standardized dobutamine echocardiography (DbE) protocol, images from three apical views were acquired at 80-120 frames/sec at rest and during stress. CR was identified if improvement of wall motion was observed at low dose (5 or 10 mug/kg/min) DbE. Myocardial viability was characterized by improvement at follow-up echocardiography in patients with revascularization. CVIB at rest and low dose dobutamine were assessed in 194 segments with resting asynergy (severe hypokinesis or akinesis), of which 88 (45%) were in patients who underwent revascularization. Of these, CVIB could be measured in 190 (98%) segments at rest and 185 (95%) at low dose dobutamine. Sixty-two (33%) segments had CR during low dose DbE and 50 (57%) segments showed wall-motion recovery (myocardial viability) at follow-up echocardiography. Segments with CR had significantly higher CVIB at rest (P < 0.001) and low dose dobutamine (P = 0.005) than segments without CR. Using optimal thresholds of CVIB (> 8.2 dB) at rest, the accuracy of CVIB for detecting CR was 70%. Compared with nonviable segments, viable segments had significantly higher CVIB at rest (P < 0.001) and low dose dobutamine (P < 0.001). Using optimal thresholds of CVIB (> 5.3 dB) at rest, the accuracy of CVIB for detecting myocardial viability was 85%, which was higher than that in conventional DbE (62%, P < 0.01). Thus, assessment of CV.TB from the apical views is a feasible and accurate tool for detecting CR and predicting myocardial viability in chronic LV dysfunction.

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Matrix spalling or crushing is one of the important mechanisms of fiber-matrix interaction of fiber reinforced cementitious composites (FRCC). The fiber pullout mechanisms have been extensively studied for an aligned fiber but matrix failure is rarely investigated since it is thought not to be a major affect. However, for an inclined fiber, the matrix failure should not be neglected. Due to the complex process of matrix spalling, experimental investigation and analytical study of this mechanism are rarely found in literature. In this paper, it is assumed that the load transfer is concentrated within the short length of the inclined fiber from the exit point towards anchored end and follows the exponential law. The Mindlin formulation is employed to calculate the 3D stress field. The simulation gives much information about this field. The 3D approximation of the stress state around an inclined fiber helps to qualitatively understand the mechanism of matrix failure. Finally, a spalling criterion is proposed by which matrix spalling occurs only when the stress in a certain volume, rather than the stress at a small point, exceeds the material strength. This implies some local stress redistribution after first yield. The stress redistribution results in more energy input and higher load bearing capacity of the matrix. In accordance with this hypothesis, the evolution of matrix spalling is demonstrated. The accurate prediction of matrix spalling needs the careful determination of the parameters in this model. This is the work of further study. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.