Compilation of a regionally-extended inter-country input-output table and its application to global value chain analysis

Studies on the rise of global value chains (GVCs) have attracted a great deal of interest in the recent economics literature. However, due to statistical and methodological challenges, most existing research ignores domestic regional heterogeneity in assessing the impact of joining GVCs. GVCs are supported not only directly by domestic regions that export goods and services to the world market, but also indirectly by other domestic regions that provide parts, components, and intermediate services to final exporting regions. To better understand the nature of a country's position and degree of participation in GVCs, we need to fully examine the role of individual domestic regions. Understanding the domestic components of GVCs is especially important for larger economies such as China, the US, India and Japan, where there may be large variations in economic scale, geography of manufacturing, and development stages at the domestic regional level. This paper proposes a new framework for measuring domestic linkages to global value chains. This framework measures domestic linkages by endogenously embedding a target country's (e.g. China and Japan) domestic interregional input–output tables into the OECD inter-country input–output model. Using this framework, we can more clearly understand how global production is fragmented and extended internationally and domestically.

Mapping agricultural value chains with international input-output data

In recent years, the analysis of trade in value added has been explored by many researchers. Although they have made important contributions by developing GVC-related indices and proposing techniques for decomposing trade data, they have not yet explored the method of value chain mapping—a core element of conventional value chain analysis. This paper introduces a method of value chain mapping that uses international input-output data and reveals both upstream and downstream transactions of goods and services induced by production activities of a specific commodity or industry. This method is subsequently applied to the agricultural value chain of three Greater Mekong Sub-region countries (i.e., Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia). The results show that the agricultural value chain has been increasingly internationalized, although there is still room for obtaining benefits from GVC participation, especially in a country such as Cambodia.

Hubble parameter reconstruction from a principal component analysis: minimizing the bias

Aims. A model-independent reconstruction of the cosmic expansion rate is essential to a robust analysis of cosmological observations. Our goal is to demonstrate that current data are able to provide reasonable constraints on the behavior of the Hubble parameter with redshift, independently of any cosmological model or underlying gravity theory. Methods. Using type Ia supernova data, we show that it is possible to analytically calculate the Fisher matrix components in a Hubble parameter analysis without assumptions about the energy content of the Universe. We used a principal component analysis to reconstruct the Hubble parameter as a linear combination of the Fisher matrix eigenvectors (principal components). To suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the components, we considered the value of the Hubble parameter at high redshift as a free parameter. We first tested our procedure using a mock sample of type Ia supernova observations, we then applied it to the real data compiled by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) group. Results. In the mock sample analysis, we demonstrate that it is possible to drastically suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the principal components. Applying our procedure to the real data, we show that it allows us to determine the behavior of the Hubble parameter with reasonable uncertainty, without introducing any ad-hoc parameterizations. Beyond that, our reconstruction agrees with completely independent measurements of the Hubble parameter obtained from red-envelope galaxies.

Offline Detection, Identification, and Correction of Branch Parameter Errors Based on Several Measurement Snapshots

This paper proposes a three-stage offline approach to detect, identify, and correct series and shunt branch parameter errors. In Stage 1 the branches suspected of having parameter errors are identified through an Identification Index (II). The II of a branch is the ratio between the number of measurements adjacent to that branch, whose normalized residuals are higher than a specified threshold value, and the total number of measurements adjacent to that branch. Using several measurement snapshots, in Stage 2 the suspicious parameters are estimated, in a simultaneous multiple-state-and-parameter estimation, via an augmented state and parameter estimator which increases the V - theta state vector for the inclusion of suspicious parameters. Stage 3 enables the validation of the estimation obtained in Stage 2, and is performed via a conventional weighted least squares estimator. Several simulation results (with IEEE bus systems) have demonstrated the reliability of the proposed approach to deal with single and multiple parameter errors in adjacent and non-adjacent branches, as well as in parallel transmission lines with series compensation. Finally the proposed approach is confirmed on tests performed on the Hydro-Quebec TransEnergie network.

Robust parameter settings of evolutionary algorithms for the optimisation of agricultural systems models

Numerical optimisation methods are being more commonly applied to agricultural systems models, to identify the most profitable management strategies. The available optimisation algorithms are reviewed and compared, with literature and our studies identifying evolutionary algorithms (including genetic algorithms) as superior in this regard to simulated annealing, tabu search, hill-climbing, and direct-search methods. Results of a complex beef property optimisation, using a real-value genetic algorithm, are presented. The relative contributions of the range of operational options and parameters of this method are discussed, and general recommendations listed to assist practitioners applying evolutionary algorithms to the solution of agricultural systems. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of heat treatment on the nutritional value of raw soybean selected for low trypsin inhibitor activity

1. Two broiler experiments and a layer experiments were conducted on Kunitz trypsin inhibitor (Kti) soybeans (SB) of low trypsin inhibitor (TI) activity to determine their nutritive value when included as mash in least-cost poultry diets. 2. Experiment 1 compared chick performance on the Kti or raw SB using a commercial full-fat SB meal (FFSBM) and a solvent extracted SB meal (SBM) as controls during a 20 d experimental period. Broiler experiment 2 compared Kti and raw SB, non-steamed, or steam-pelleted with and without DL-methionine supplementation added to every treatment containing 170 g SB/kg. For each broiler experiment the levels of each SB were 70, 120 and 170 g/kg with the control birds fed only 170 g SB/kg. 3. The layer experiment, compared steam-pelleted Kti and raw SB against a non-steamed Kti and raw SB each fed at two levels (70 and 110 g/kg) x 30 replicates from 29 weeks of age for 19 weeks in a completely randomised design. Production parameters were measured when diets were formulated to contain minimum required specifications and calculated apparent metabolisable energy (AME). At the completion of each trial, 2 broiler birds from each cage and 5 layer birds per treatment were killed, weighed, and their liver and pancreas weighed. 4. Both broiler experiments indicated that production parameters on the Kti SB treatments were significantly lower (P < 0.05) than on the two commercial control SB treatments. However, the Kti treatments were superior to the raw SB treatments. 5. Pancreas weight increased with increasing inclusion of both raw and Kti SB, suggesting that a TI was causing the depression in performance. The AME of the Kti SB was similar to that of commercial FFSB meal. After steam conditioning, the raw SB meal AME value of 9.5 MJ/kg dry matter (DM) was improved to 14.1 MJ/kg DM by reduced TI activity, but this AME improvement with TI activity reduction, plus the supplementation with DL-methionine on birds fed the raw SB had no effect (P > 0.05) on any parameter evaluated in experiment 2. 6. The layer experiment showed that hens on the Kti SB treatments had significantly greater live weight gain (LWG), egg weight and daily egg mass than birds given raw SB. A reduced food intake (FI) was observed in the Kti treatments but egg mass was generally similar to that on the FFSB control diet, indicating that Kti SB supported excellent egg production at an inclusion of 110 g/kg. The depressed performance observed for broiler chicks suggest that younger birds are more susceptible to the effects of SB TI.

Lime and fertilizer recommendation system for coconut trees

Fertilizer recommendation to most agricultural crops is based on response curves. Such curves are constructed from field experimental data, obtained for a particular condition and may not be reliable to be applied to other regions. The aim of this study was to develop a Lime and Fertilizer Recommendation System for Coconut Crop based on the nutritional balance. The System considers the expected productivity and plant nutrient use efficiency to estimate nutrient demand, and effective rooting layer, soil nutrient availability, as well as any other nutrient input to estimate the nutrient supply. Comparing the nutrient demand with the nutrient supply the System defines the nutrient balance. If the balance for a given nutrient is negative, lime and, or, fertilization is recommended. On the other hand, if the balance is positive, no lime or fertilizer is needed. For coconut trees, the fertilization regime is divided in three stages: fertilization at the planting spot, band fertilization and fertilization at the production phase. The data set for the development of the System for coconut trees was obtained from the literature. The recommendations generated by the System were compared to those derived from recommendation tables used for coconut crop in Brazil. The main differences between the two procedures were for the P rate applied in the planting hole, which was higher in the proposed System because the tables do not pay heed to the pit volume, whereas the N and K rates were lower. The crop demand for K is very high, and the rates recommended by the System are superior to the table recommendations for the formation and initial production stage. The fertilizer recommendations by the System are higher for the phase of coconut tree growth as compared to the production phase, because greater amount of biomass is produced in the first phase.

Mass- Radius Relation for Magnetized Strange Quarks Stars

We review the stability of magnetized strange quark matter (MSQM) within the phenomenological MIT bag model, taking into account the variation of the relevant input parameters, namely, the strange quark mass, baryon density, magnetic field and bag parameter. A comparison with magnetized asymmetric quark matter in beta-equilibrium as well as with strange quark matter (SQM) is presented. We obtain that the energy per baryon for MSQM decreases as the magnetic field increases, and its minimum value at vanishing pressure is lower than the value found for SQM, which implies that MSQM is more stable than non-magnetized SQM. The mass-radius relation for magnetized strange quark stars is also obtained in this framework.

Avaliação do desempenho energético e da qualidade do ar de uma piscina coberta

Este trabalho teve como propósito fazer uma avaliação do desempenho energético e da qualidade do ar no interior das instalações de uma Piscina Municipal Coberta, localizada na zona norte de Portugal, sendo estabelecidos os seguintes objetivos: caracterização geral da piscina, no que respeita aos seus diferentes espaços e equipamentos, cálculo dos consumos térmicos e elétricos bem como o registo das concentrações de elementos poluentes para controlo da qualidade do ar no interior da piscina, tendo como base a legislação atualmente em vigor. A caracterização geral da piscina permitiu verificar algumas inconformidades como a temperatura da água nos tanques de natação que tem valores superiores aos recomendados e a sala de primeiros socorros que não possui acesso direto ao exterior. Acrescente-se que o pavimento nos chuveiros da casa de banho feminina e os valores de pH para água do tanque grande e pequeno não estão sempre dentro da gama de recomendação. O caudal da renovação de ar está a ser operado manualmente e quando está a funcionar a 50% da sua capacidade máxima, que acontece numa parte do dia, apenas consegue renovar 77,5% do caudal recomendado pelo RSECE. Para se obter o valor recomendado é necessário ter pelo menos 7 horas com o caudal a 100% da capacidade máxima. A avaria na UTA2 originou que 40% dos registos diários da humidade relativa interior estivessem fora da gama de valores recomendados e que esta é fortemente dependente da humidade no exterior e pode ser agravada quando as portas dos envidraçados da nave são abertas. Analisando ainda a quantidade de água removida na desumidificação do ar com a água evaporada em condições de Outono-Inverno ou Primavera-Verão, este estudo permitiu concluir que todas as combinações demonstraram a necessidade de desumidificação salvo a combinação Outono-Inverno e UTA2 a funcionar a 100% da sua capacidade máxima. Os isolamentos das tubagens na sala das caldeiras foram observados e comparados com as soluções recomendadas pelas empresas especialistas e verificou-se que alguns estão mal colocados com parcial ou total degradação, promovendo perdas térmicas. No caso das perdas calorificas por evaporação, estas representaram cerca de 67,78% das perdas totais. Como tal, estudou-se a aplicação de uma cobertura sobre o plano de água durante o período de inatividade da piscina (8 horas) e verificou-se que o resultado seria uma poupança de 654,8 kWh/dia, na ausência de evaporação da água, mais 88,00 kWh/dia do período da UTA2 a funcionar a 50% da sua capacidade, perfazendo um total de 742,8 kWh/dia. A aplicação da cobertura permite obter um VAL de valor positivo, uma TIR de 22,77% e sendo este valor superior ao WACC (Weight Average Cost of Capital), o projeto torna-se viável com um Pay-Back de 3,17 anos. Caracterizou-se também o consumo total diário em eletricidade, e verificou-se que as unidades de climatização, as bombas de circulação de água, a iluminação, e outros equipamentos representam, respetivamente, cerca de 67,81, 25,26, 2,68 e 3,91% da energia elétrica total consumida. Por fim, a análise à qualidade do ar no interior da nave em Maio e Setembro identificou que as concentrações de ozono apresentavam valores no limite do aceitável em Maio e superiores ao valor de emissão em Setembro. Os compostos orgânicos voláteis também apresentavam valores em Maio 4,98 vezes superior e em Setembro 6,87 vezes superior aos valores máximos exigidos pelo D.L. nº 79/2006. Houve ainda altas concentrações de radão registadas na casa dos filtros, em Maio com um valor 11,49 vezes superior, no entanto esse valor desceu em Setembro para 1,08 vezes, mesmo assim superior ao exigido pelo D.L. nº 79/2006.

Short-term Value for the Water Stored in Headsensitivity Power System Reservoirs

As it is well known, competitive electricity markets require new computing tools for generation companies to enhance the management of its resources. The economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir is crucial information for enhancing the management of the reservoirs. This paper proposes a practical deterministic approach for computing the short-term economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir, emphasizing the need to considerer water stored as a scarce resource with a short-term economic value. The paper addresses a problem concerning reservoirs with small storage capacities, i.e., the reservoirs considered as head-sensitivity. More precisely, the respective hydro plant is head-dependent and a pure linear approach is unable to capture such consideration. The paper presents a case study supported by the proposed practical deterministic approach and applied on a real multi-reservoir power system with three cascaded reservoirs, considering as input data forecasts for the electric energy price and for the natural inflow into the reservoirs over the schedule time horizon. The paper presents various water schedules due to different final stored water volume conditions on the reservoirs. Also, it presents the respective economic value of the water for the reservoirs at different stored water volume conditions.

Blood culture as a parameter of treatment effectiveness in experimental histoplasmosis of the hamster

The aim of this study was to determine the value of blood culture as a parameter of treatment effectiveness in experimental histoplasmosis. A total of thirty five hamsters, weighing approximately 120g, were inoculated intracardiacly with 0.1 ml of a suspension containing 4 x 10(7) cells/ml of the yeast phase of H. capsulatum. Treatments were started one week after the infection and lasted for 3 weeks. The azoles, (itraconazole, saperconazole and fluconazole) were administered once a day by gavage, at a dose of 8 mg/kg; Amphotericin B was given intraperitonealy every other day at a dose of 6mg/kg. Blood samples (1 ml) were obtained by heart punction from the 4th day after infection and were seeded in Sabouraud honey-agar and BHI-agar. The hamsters that survived were killed one week after treatment completion and the following criteria were considered for treatment evaluation: 1) rate of spontaneous death, at the end of the experience; 2) microscopic examination of Giemsa smears from liver and spleen and 3) determination of CFU in spleen cultures. Amphotericin B was the most effective drug, with negative blood cultures at day 20, negative spleen cultures in all cases and all the animals survived until the end of the study. Fluconazole was the less effective drug, blood cultures were positive during the whole experience, spleen cultures showed a similar average of CFU when compared with the control animals and 42.8% of these animals died. Saperconazole and itraconazole showed a similar activity, with survival of all hamsters and negative blood cultures at 23 and 26 days respectively. Blood culture seems to be valuable parameter for treatments' evaluation in experimental histoplasmosis of the hamster.

Análise de sensibilidade na simulação dinâmica de um grande edifício escolar existente

Dado o panorama de conservação de energia a nível nacional e mundial, torna-se hoje em dia muito importante, que seja possível controlar e estimar o consumo energético nos edifícios. Assim, atendendo à actual problemática energética e ao crescente consumo energético nos edifícios, é importante parametrizar, avaliar e comparar este consumo. Neste sentido, nas últimas décadas, têm sido efectuados desenvolvimentos técnicos, quer ao nível do equipamento de campo para efectuar monitorização e medição, quer ao nível da simulação dinâmica de edifícios. Com esta dissertação de mestrado, pretendeu-se efectuar a simulação dinâmica de um edifício escolar existente a funcionar em pleno, e efectuar uma análise de sensibilidade relativamente ao grau de variação dos resultados obtidos através da aplicação de dois programas de cálculo térmico e energético. Foram utilizados, o programa VE-Pro da IES (Integrated Environmental Solutions) e o programa Trace 700 da TRANE. Ambos os programas foram parametrizados com os mesmos dados de entrada, tendo em atenção as opções de simulação disponibilizadas por ambos. Posteriormente, utilizaram-se os dados retirados da simulação para calcular a classificação energética no âmbito do sistema de certificação energética (SCE), através de uma folha de cálculo desenvolvida para o efeito. Foram ainda consideradas várias soluções de eficiência energética para o edifício, com vista a poupanças reais de energia, tendo sempre atenção ao conforto térmico dos ocupantes. Dessas medidas fazem parte, medidas relacionadas com a iluminação, como a substituição da iluminação existente por luminárias do tipo LED (Light Emitting Diode), soluções de energias renováveis, como a instalação de colectores solares para aquecimento das águas quentes sanitárias, e painéis fotovoltaicos para produção de energia, bem como medidas ligadas aos equipamentos de climatização. Posteriormente, recalculou-se a classificação energética afectada das melhorias. Os resultados obtidos nas duas simulações foram analisados sob o ponto de vista do aquecimento, arrefecimento, ventilação, iluminação e equipamentos eléctricos. A comparação das duas simulações para cada parâmetro acima referido, apresentaram variações inferiores a 5%. O desvio maior verificou-se na ventilação, com o valor de aproximadamente 4,9%. Transpondo estes resultados para o cálculo do IEE (Índice de Eficiência Energética), verificou-se um desvio inferior a 2%.

Aplicação de um método de correlação de imagem para a determinação da tenacidade à fratura em corte de adesivos estruturais

Qualquer estrutura hoje em dia deve ser resistente, robusta e leve, o que aumentou o interesse industrial e investigação nas ligações adesivas, nomeadamente pela melhoria das propriedades de resistência e fratura dos materiais. Com esta técnica de união, o projeto de estruturas pode ser orientado para estruturas mais leves, não só em relação à economia direta de peso relativamente às juntas aparafusas ou soldadas, mas também por causa da flexibilidade para ligar materiais diferentes. Em qualquer área da indústria, a aplicação em larga escala de uma determinada técnica de ligação supõe que estão disponíveis ferramentas confiáveis para o projeto e previsão da rotura. Neste âmbito, Modelos de Dano Coesivo (MDC) são uma ferramenta essencial, embora seja necessário estimar as leis MDC do adesivo à tração e corte para entrada nos modelos numéricos. Este trabalho avalia o valor da tenacidade ao corte (GIIC) de juntas coladas para três adesivos com ductilidade distinta. O trabalho experimental consiste na caracterização à fratura ao corte da ligação adesiva por métodos convencionais e pelo Integral-J. Além disso, pelo integral-J, é possível definir a forma exata da lei coesiva. Para o integral-J, é utilizado um método de correlação de imagem digital anteriormente desenvolvido para a avaliação do deslocamento ao corte do adesivo na extremidade da fenda (δs) durante o ensaio, acoplado a uma sub-rotina em Matlab® para a extração automática de δs. É também apresentado um trabalho numérico para avaliar a adequabilidade de leis coesivas triangulares aproximadas em reproduzir as curvas força-deslocamento (P-δ) experimentais dos ensaios ENF. Também se apresenta uma análise de sensibilidade para compreender a influência dos parâmetros coesivos nas previsões numéricas. Como resultado deste trabalho, foram estimadas experimentalmente as leis coesivas de cada adesivo pelo método direto, e numericamente validadas, para posterior previsão de resistência em juntas adesivas. Em conjunto com a caraterização à tração destes adesivos, é possível a previsão da rotura em modo-misto.

Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.