946 resultados para individual-specific uncertainty
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RESUMO: Contexto: O funcionamento tem sido reconhecido como um dos principais indicadores de resultados para avaliar se as pessoas beneficiam das intervenções destinadas a melhorar a sua saúde mental. O funcionamento refere-se à forma como um indivíduo consegue responder às suas tarefas e solicitações, dos seus familiares e da sua comunidade, de acordo com os requisitos do local e a cultura em que vive (eg, tarefa de cozinhar e limpar para as mulheres em algumas culturas ). O funcionamento é altamente dependente da cultura - por isso, tem sido recomendado o desenvolvimento de medidas de funcionamento específicas de cada cultura. Desenvolver localmente os instrumentos de medida evita problemas de adequação, associados com a adaptação de instrumentos ocidentais. Embora os instrumentos criados desta forma sejam específicos de um meio cultural, eles são simultaneamente "transculturais", no sentido em que cada um se refere às tarefas mais importantes para a população local . Esta abordagem mostrou-se útil para investigadores e agências de ajuda (eg, ONGs) que trabalham em países não-ocidentais . Este estudo descreve o trabalho da agência International Medical Corps (IMC) na criação e validação de um questionário de funcionamento específico nas dimensões cultura e gênero, no Líbano, destinado a avaliar eventuais melhorias em pessoas que receberam intervenções de para problemas de saúde mental, a nível dos cuidados primários de saúde. Método: O instrumento foi desenvolvido usando um método que é uma alternativa à abordagem existente de adaptação de instrumentos ocidentais a outras culturas e situações; esta abordagem é rápida e exequível, tendo já demonstrado ser útil no desenvolvimento de instrumentos válidos e fidedignos. Inicialmente, foi solicitado que as pessoas identificassem, de uma lista livre, as tarefas mais importantes para cuidar de si próprias, da sua família e da sua comunidade; as tarefas identificadas foram posteriormente usadas como base para um instrumento de avaliação de funcionamento culturalmente válido. A partir daqui, foram desenvolvidos questionários específicos da comunidade em questão, posteriormente testados no terreno nas vertentes da validade (de conteúdo, facial e de constructo) e da fiabilidade (teste-reste e inter-entrevistadores). Resultados. O estudo resultou na criação e validação de um questionário de funcionamento específico de cultura e gênero capaz de medir efectivamente a capacidade de execução de tarefas importantes do quotidiano,como parte da avaliação de resultados levada a cabo por profissionais da CSP previamente treinados na identificação, suporte e encaminhamento de pessoas com problemas de saúde mental no Líbano. Conclusão. Neste trabalho descreve-se o desenvolvimento de um questionário de funcionamento específico de cultura e gênero, orientado para a avaliação de resultados, num contexto mais lato de um sistema abrangente de avaliação e monitorização de um serviço comunitário. --------------ABSTRACT: Background. Functioning has been recognized as one of the most important key outcomes to assess whether people benefit from interventions aimed to improve their mental health. Functioning refers to how well na individual can complete the tasks and demands for themselves, their family, and their community which are required by them depending on the setting and the culture they live in (e.g. task of cooking and cleaning for women in some cultures). Functioning is highly dependent on culture. Therefore, it has been recommended to develop culture-specific measures of function. Developing instruments locally avoids the problems of limited local relevance and appropriateness associate with adapting western instruments. Although each instrument created in this way is culturally bound, they are “cross cultural” in the sense that each refers to the tasks most important to local people. This approach proves useful for both researchers and aid agencies working in non-western countries. This study describes International Medical Corps’ (IMC) work in Lebanon to create and validate a culture and gender specific functioning questionnaire to assess improvements in people who received treatment interventions for mental health problems at the primary health care (PHC) level. Method. The measure was developed using a method that is an alternative to the existing approach of adapting western function instruments to other cultures and situations; an approach which has been demonstrated as rapid, feasible and which can yield valid and reliable instruments. Function was assessed by first asking local people what tasks are important to care for themselves, their family and their community using free listing, then using these tasks as the basis for a culturally valid function assessment instrument. Community specific function questionnaires based on these tasks were then created, and field-tested for validity using content, face and construct validity methods, and also field tested for reliability using inter-rater and test retest reliability methods. Results. The study resulted in the creation and validation of a culture and gender specific functioning questionnaire that would effectively measure the ability to do tasks important to daily existence, as part of assessing client level outcomes where PHC providers were trained in the identification, management and referral of people with mental health problems in Lebanon. Conclusion. The paper describes a successful pilot for developing culture and gender specific functioning questionnaires that evaluate client level outcomes as part of a more comprehensive system for monitoring and evaluation of community based case management supports and services.
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A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.
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INTRODUCTION: The correlation between the immunological assay and the antibody titer can offer a tool for the experimental analysis of different phases of the disease. METHODS: Two simple immunological assays for Schistosoma mansoni in mice sera samples based on specific IgG detection for worms soluble antigens and eggs soluble antigens were standardized and evaluated in our laboratory. Fifty mice were used in negative and positive groups and the results obtained by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) assays were compared with the number of worms counted and the IgG titers at different times of infection. RESULTS: Data showed that ELISA using adult worm antigens (ELISA-SWAP) presented a satisfactory correlation between the absorbance value of IgG titers and the individual number of worms counted after perfusion technique (R²=0.62). In addition, ELISA-SWAP differentially detected positive samples with 30 and 60 days post infection (p=0.011 and 0.003, respectively), whereas ELISA using egg antigens (ELISA-SEA) detected samples after 140 days (p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: These data show that the use of different antigens in immunological methods can be used as potential tools for the analysis of the chronological evolution of S. mansoni infection in murine schistosomiasis. Correlations with human schistosomiasis are discussed.
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Doctoral Thesis for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering
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The jet energy scale (JES) and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of s√=7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb −1 . Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells using the anti- kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0.4 or R=0.6 , and are calibrated using MC simulations. A residual JES correction is applied to account for differences between data and MC simulations. This correction and its systematic uncertainty are estimated using a combination of in situ techniques exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference object such as a photon or a Z boson, for 20≤pjetT<1000 GeV and pseudorapidities |η|<4.5 . The effect of multiple proton–proton interactions is corrected for, and an uncertainty is evaluated using in situ techniques. The smallest JES uncertainty of less than 1 % is found in the central calorimeter region ( |η|<1.2 ) for jets with 55≤pjetT<500 GeV . For central jets at lower pT , the uncertainty is about 3 %. A consistent JES estimate is found using measurements of the calorimeter response of single hadrons in proton–proton collisions and test-beam data, which also provide the estimate for pjetT>1 TeV. The calibration of forward jets is derived from dijet pT balance measurements. The resulting uncertainty reaches its largest value of 6 % for low- pT jets at |η|=4.5 . Additional JES uncertainties due to specific event topologies, such as close-by jets or selections of event samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks or gluons, are also discussed. The magnitude of these uncertainties depends on the event sample used in a given physics analysis, but typically amounts to 0.5–3 %.
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Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial
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AbstractBackground:Aerobic fitness, assessed by measuring VO2max in maximum cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) or by estimating VO2max through the use of equations in exercise testing, is a predictor of mortality. However, the error resulting from this estimate in a given individual can be high, affecting clinical decisions.Objective:To determine the error of estimate of VO2max in cycle ergometry in a population attending clinical exercise testing laboratories, and to propose sex-specific equations to minimize that error.Methods:This study assessed 1715 adults (18 to 91 years, 68% men) undertaking maximum CPX in a lower limbs cycle ergometer (LLCE) with ramp protocol. The percentage error (E%) between measured VO2max and that estimated from the modified ACSM equation (Lang et al. MSSE, 1992) was calculated. Then, estimation equations were developed: 1) for all the population tested (C-GENERAL); and 2) separately by sex (C-MEN and C-WOMEN).Results:Measured VO2max was higher in men than in WOMEN: -29.4 ± 10.5 and 24.2 ± 9.2 mL.(kg.min)-1 (p < 0.01). The equations for estimating VO2max [in mL.(kg.min)-1] were: C-GENERAL = [final workload (W)/body weight (kg)] x 10.483 + 7; C-MEN = [final workload (W)/body weight (kg)] x 10.791 + 7; and C-WOMEN = [final workload (W)/body weight (kg)] x 9.820 + 7. The E% for MEN was: -3.4 ± 13.4% (modified ACSM); 1.2 ± 13.2% (C-GENERAL); and -0.9 ± 13.4% (C-MEN) (p < 0.01). For WOMEN: -14.7 ± 17.4% (modified ACSM); -6.3 ± 16.5% (C-GENERAL); and -1.7 ± 16.2% (C-WOMEN) (p < 0.01).Conclusion:The error of estimate of VO2max by use of sex-specific equations was reduced, but not eliminated, in exercise tests on LLCE.
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MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have been shown to play important roles in both brain development and the regulation of adult neural cell functions. However, a systematic analysis of brain miRNA functions has been hindered by a lack of comprehensive information regarding the distribution of miRNAs in neuronal versus glial cells. To address this issue, we performed microarray analyses of miRNA expression in the four principal cell types of the CNS (neurons, astrocytes, oligodendrocytes, and microglia) using primary cultures from postnatal d 1 rat cortex. These analyses revealed that neural miRNA expression is highly cell-type specific, with 116 of the 351 miRNAs examined being differentially expressed fivefold or more across the four cell types. We also demonstrate that individual neuron-enriched or neuron-diminished RNAs had a significant impact on the specification of neuronal phenotype: overexpression of the neuron-enriched miRNAs miR-376a and miR-434 increased the differentiation of neural stem cells into neurons, whereas the opposite effect was observed for the glia-enriched miRNAs miR-223, miR-146a, miR-19, and miR-32. In addition, glia-enriched miRNAs were shown to inhibit aberrant glial expression of neuronal proteins and phenotypes, as exemplified by miR-146a, which inhibited neuroligin 1-dependent synaptogenesis. This study identifies new nervous system functions of specific miRNAs, reveals the global extent to which the brain may use differential miRNA expression to regulate neural cell-type-specific phenotypes, and provides an important data resource that defines the compartmentalization of brain miRNAs across different cell types.
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Els bacteris són la forma dominant de vida del planeta: poden sobreviure en medis molt adversos, i en alguns casos poden generar substàncies que quan les ingerim ens són tòxiques. La seva presència en els aliments fa que la microbiologia predictiva sigui un camp imprescindible en la microbiologia dels aliments per garantir la seguretat alimentària. Un cultiu bacterià pot passar per quatre fases de creixement: latència, exponencial, estacionària i de mort. En aquest treball s’ha avançat en la comprensió dels fenòmens intrínsecs a la fase de latència, que és de gran interès en l’àmbit de la microbiologia predictiva. Aquest estudi, realitzat al llarg de quatre anys, s’ha abordat des de la metodologia Individual-based Modelling (IbM) amb el simulador INDISIM (INDividual DIScrete SIMulation), que ha estat millorat per poder fer-ho. INDISIM ha permès estudiar dues causes de la fase de latència de forma separada, i abordar l’estudi del comportament del cultiu des d’una perspectiva mesoscòpica. S’ha vist que la fase de latència ha de ser estudiada com un procés dinàmic, i no definida per un paràmetre. L’estudi de l’evolució de variables com la distribució de propietats individuals entre la població (per exemple, la distribució de masses) o la velocitat de creixement, han permès distingir dues etapes en la fase de latència, inicial i de transició, i aprofundir en la comprensió del que passa a nivell cel•lular. S’han observat experimentalment amb citometria de flux diversos resultats previstos per les simulacions. La coincidència entre simulacions i experiments no és trivial ni casual: el sistema estudiat és un sistema complex, i per tant la coincidència del comportament al llarg del temps de diversos paràmetres interrelacionats és un aval a la metodologia emprada en les simulacions. Es pot afirmar, doncs, que s’ha verificat experimentalment la bondat de la metodologia INDISIM.
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Novel cancer vaccines are capableto efficiently induce and boost humantumor antigen specific T-cells. However,the properties of these CD8T-cells are only partially characterized.For in depth investigation ofT-cells following Melan-A/MART-1peptide vaccination in melanoma patients,we conducted a detailed prospectivestudy at the single cell level.We first sorted individual human naiveand effector CD8 T-cells from peripheralblood by flow cytometry, andtested a modified RT-PCR protocolincluding a global amplification ofexpressed mRNAs to obtain sufficientcDNAfromsingle cells.We successfullydetected the expression ofseveral specific genes of interest evendown to 106-fold dilution (equivalentto 10-5 cell). We then analyzed tumor-specific effector memory (EM)CD8T-cell subpopulations ex vivo, assingle cells from vaccinated melanomapatients. To elucidate the hallmarksof effective immunity the genesignatures were defined by a panel ofgenes related to effector functions(e.g. IFN-, granzyme B, perforin),and individual clonotypes were identifiedaccording to the expression ofdistinct T-cell receptors (TCR). Usingthis novel single cell analysis approach,we observed that T-cell differentiationis clonotype dependent,with a progressive restriction in TCRBV clonotype diversity from EMCD28pos to EMCD28neg subsets. However,the effector function gene imprintingis clonotype-independent,but dependent on differentiation,since it correlates with the subset oforigin (EMCD28pos or EMCD28neg). We also conducted a detailedcomparative analysis after vaccinationwith natural vs. analog Melan-Apeptide. We found that the peptideused for vaccination determines thefunctional outcome of individualT-cell clonotypes, with native peptideinducing more potent effector functions.Yet, selective clonotypic expansionwith differentiation was preservedregardless of the peptide usedfor vaccination. In summary, the exvivo single cell RT-PCR approach ishighly sensitive and efficient, andrepresents a reliable and powerfultool to refine our current view of molecularprocesses taking place duringT-cell differentiation.
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Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.
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Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.
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The Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) is an individual electronic document that collects data regarding a specific athlete that is useful in differentiating between natural physiologic variations of selected biomarkers and deviations caused by artificial manipulations. A subsidiary of the endocrine module of the ABP, that which here is called Athlete Steroidal Passport (ASP), collects data on markers of an altered metabolism of endogenous steroidal hormones measured in urine samples. The ASP aims to identify not only doping with anabolic-androgenic steroids, but also most indirect steroid doping strategies such as doping with estrogen receptor antagonists and aromatase inhibitors. Development of specific markers of steroid doping, use of the athlete's previous measurements to define individual limits, with the athlete becoming his or her own reference, the inclusion of heterogeneous factors such as the UDPglucuronosyltransferase B17 genotype of the athlete, the knowledge of potentially confounding effects such as heavy alcohol consumption, the development of an external quality control system to control analytical uncertainty, and finally the use of Bayesian inferential methods to evaluate the value of indirect evidence have made the ASP a valuable alternative to deter steroid doping in elite sports. The ASP can be used to target athletes for gas chromatography/combustion/ isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) testing, to withdraw temporarily the athlete from competing when an abnormality has been detected, and ultimately to lead to an antidoping infraction if that abnormality cannot be explained by a medical condition. Although the ASP has been developed primarily to ensure fairness in elite sports, its application in endocrinology for clinical purposes is straightforward in an evidence-based medicine paradigm.
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1. The mechanisms underlying host choice strategies by parasites remain poorly understood. We address two main questions: (i) do parasites prefer vulnerable or well-fed hosts, and (ii) to what extent is a parasite species specialized towards a given host species? 2. To answer these questions, we investigated, both in the field and in the lab, a host-parasite system comprising one ectoparasitic mite (Spinturnix myoti) and its major hosts, two sibling species of bats (Myotis myotis and M blythii), which coexist intimately in colonial nursery roosts. We exploited the close physical associations between host species in colonial roosts as well as naturally occurring annual variation in food abundance to investigate the relationships between parasite intensities and (i) host species and (ii) individual nutritional status. 3. Although horizontal transmission of parasites was facilitated by the intimate aggregation of bats within their colonial clusters, we found significant interspecific differences in degree of infestation throughout the 6 years of the study, with M. myotis always more heavily parasitized than M. blythii. This pattern was replicated in a laboratory experiment in which any species-specific resistance induced by exploitation of different trophic niches in nature was removed. 4. Within both host species, S. myoti showed a clear preference for individuals with higher nutritional status. In years with high resource abundance, both bat hosts harboured more parasites than in low-resource years, although the relative difference in parasite burden across species was maintained. This pattern of host choice was also replicated in the laboratory. When offered a choice, parasites always colonized better-fed individuals. 5. These results show first that host specialization in our study system occurred. Second, immediate parasite choice clearly operated towards the selection of hosts in good nutritional state.
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This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.