Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: The Finite Horizon Case

We analyze a finite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to find an inventory policy and a pricing strategy maximizing expected profit over the finite horizon. We show that when the demand model is additive, the profit-to-go functions are k-concave and hence an (s,S,p) policy is optimal. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period. For more general demand functions, i.e., multiplicative plus additive functions, we demonstrate that the profit-to-go function is not necessarily k-concave and an (s,S,p) policy is not necessarily optimal. We introduce a new concept, the symmetric k-concave functions and apply it to provide a characterization of the optimal policy.

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: the Infinite Horizon Case

We analyze an infinite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are identically distributed random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to maximize expected discounted, or expected average profit over the infinite planning horizon. We show that a stationary (s,S,p) policy is optimal for both the discounted and average profit models with general demand functions. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period.

Krylov subspace methods for approximating functions of symmetric positive definite matrices with applications to applied statistics and anomalous diffusion

Matrix function approximation is a current focus of worldwide interest and finds application in a variety of areas of applied mathematics and statistics. In this thesis we focus on the approximation of A^(-α/2)b, where A ∈ ℝ^(n×n) is a large, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix and b ∈ ℝ^n is a vector. In particular, we will focus on matrix function techniques for sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields in applied statistics and the solution of fractional-in-space partial differential equations. Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are multivariate normal random variables characterised by a sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrix. GMRFs are popular models in computational spatial statistics as the sparse structure can be exploited, typically through the use of the sparse Cholesky decomposition, to construct fast sampling methods. It is well known, however, that for sufficiently large problems, iterative methods for solving linear systems outperform direct methods. Fractional-in-space partial differential equations arise in models of processes undergoing anomalous diffusion. Unfortunately, as the fractional Laplacian is a non-local operator, numerical methods based on the direct discretisation of these equations typically requires the solution of dense linear systems, which is impractical for fine discretisations. In this thesis, novel applications of Krylov subspace approximations to matrix functions for both of these problems are investigated. Matrix functions arise when sampling from a GMRF by noting that the Cholesky decomposition A = LL^T is, essentially, a `square root' of the precision matrix A. Therefore, we can replace the usual sampling method, which forms x = L^(-T)z, with x = A^(-1/2)z, where z is a vector of independent and identically distributed standard normal random variables. Similarly, the matrix transfer technique can be used to build solutions to the fractional Poisson equation of the form ϕn = A^(-α/2)b, where A is the finite difference approximation to the Laplacian. Hence both applications require the approximation of f(A)b, where f(t) = t^(-α/2) and A is sparse. In this thesis we will compare the Lanczos approximation, the shift-and-invert Lanczos approximation, the extended Krylov subspace method, rational approximations and the restarted Lanczos approximation for approximating matrix functions of this form. A number of new and novel results are presented in this thesis. Firstly, we prove the convergence of the matrix transfer technique for the solution of the fractional Poisson equation and we give conditions by which the finite difference discretisation can be replaced by other methods for discretising the Laplacian. We then investigate a number of methods for approximating matrix functions of the form A^(-α/2)b and investigate stopping criteria for these methods. In particular, we derive a new method for restarting the Lanczos approximation to f(A)b. We then apply these techniques to the problem of sampling from a GMRF and construct a full suite of methods for sampling conditioned on linear constraints and approximating the likelihood. Finally, we consider the problem of sampling from a generalised Matern random field, which combines our techniques for solving fractional-in-space partial differential equations with our method for sampling from GMRFs.

Random matrices: Universality of ESDs and the circular law

Given an n x n complex matrix A, let mu(A)(x, y) := 1/n vertical bar{1 <= i <= n, Re lambda(i) <= x, Im lambda(i) <= y}vertical bar be the empirical spectral distribution (ESD) of its eigenvalues lambda(i) is an element of C, i = l, ... , n. We consider the limiting distribution (both in probability and in the almost sure convergence sense) of the normalized ESD mu(1/root n An) of a random matrix A(n) = (a(ij))(1 <= i, j <= n), where the random variables a(ij) - E(a(ij)) are i.i.d. copies of a fixed random variable x with unit variance. We prove a universality principle for such ensembles, namely, that the limit distribution in question is independent of the actual choice of x. In particular, in order to compute this distribution, one can assume that x is real or complex Gaussian. As a related result, we show how laws for this ESD follow from laws for the singular value distribution of 1/root n A(n) - zI for complex z. As a corollary, we establish the circular law conjecture (both almost surely and in probability), which asserts that mu(1/root n An) converges to the uniform measure on the unit disc when the a(ij) have zero mean.

An asymptotically optimal push-pull method for multicasting over a random network

We consider multicast flow problems where either all of the nodes or only a subset of the nodes may be in session. Traffic from each node in the session has to be sent to every other node in the session. If the session does not consist of all the nodes, the remaining nodes act as relays. The nodes are connected by undirected edges whose capacities are independent and identically distributed random variables. We study the asymptotics of the capacity region (with network coding) in the limit of a large number of nodes, and show that the normalized sum rate converges to a constant almost surely. We then provide a decentralized push-pull algorithm that asymptotically achieves this normalized sum rate.

Wireless scheduling with partial channel state information: large deviations and optimality

We consider a server serving a time-slotted queued system of multiple packet-based flows, where not more than one flow can be serviced in a single time slot. The flows have exogenous packet arrivals and time-varying service rates. At each time, the server can observe instantaneous service rates for only a subset of flows ( selected from a fixed collection of observable subsets) before scheduling a flow in the subset for service. We are interested in queue length aware scheduling to keep the queues short. The limited availability of instantaneous service rate information requires the scheduler to make a careful choice of which subset of service rates to sample. We develop scheduling algorithms that use only partial service rate information from subsets of channels, and that minimize the likelihood of queue overflow in the system. Specifically, we present a new joint subset-sampling and scheduling algorithm called Max-Exp that uses only the current queue lengths to pick a subset of flows, and subsequently schedules a flow using the Exponential rule. When the collection of observable subsets is disjoint, we show that Max-Exp achieves the best exponential decay rate, among all scheduling algorithms that base their decision on the current ( or any finite past history of) system state, of the tail of the longest queue. To accomplish this, we employ novel analytical techniques for studying the performance of scheduling algorithms using partial state, which may be of independent interest. These include new sample-path large deviations results for processes obtained by non-random, predictable sampling of sequences of independent and identically distributed random variables. A consequence of these results is that scheduling with partial state information yields a rate function significantly different from scheduling with full channel information. In the special case when the observable subsets are singleton flows, i.e., when there is effectively no a priori channel state information, Max-Exp reduces to simply serving the flow with the longest queue; thus, our results show that to always serve the longest queue in the absence of any channel state information is large deviations optimal.

Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

This thesis presents a technique for obtaining the response of linear structural systems with parameter uncertainties subjected to either deterministic or random excitation. The parameter uncertainties are modeled as random variables or random fields, and are assumed to be time-independent. The new method is an extension of the deterministic finite element method to the space of random functions.

First, the general formulation of the method is developed, in the case where the excitation is deterministic in time. Next, the application of this formulation to systems satisfying the one-dimensional wave equation with uncertainty in their physical properties is described. A particular physical conceptualization of this equation is chosen for study, and some engineering applications are discussed in both an earthquake ground motion and a structural context.

Finally, the formulation of the new method is extended to include cases where the excitation is random in time. Application of this formulation to the random response of a primary-secondary system is described. It is found that parameter uncertainties can have a strong effect on the system response characteristics.

Financial modelling with 2-EPT probability density functions

The class of all Exponential-Polynomial-Trigonometric (EPT) functions is classical and equal to the Euler-d’Alembert class of solutions of linear differential equations with constant coefficients. The class of non-negative EPT functions defined on [0;1) was discussed in Hanzon and Holland (2010) of which EPT probability density functions are an important subclass. EPT functions can be represented as ceAxb, where A is a square matrix, b a column vector and c a row vector where the triple (A; b; c) is the minimal realization of the EPT function. The minimal triple is only unique up to a basis transformation. Here the class of 2-EPT probability density functions on R is defined and shown to be closed under a variety of operations. The class is also generalised to include mixtures with the pointmass at zero. This class coincides with the class of probability density functions with rational characteristic functions. It is illustrated that the Variance Gamma density is a 2-EPT density under a parameter restriction. A discrete 2-EPT process is a process which has stochastically independent 2-EPT random variables as increments. It is shown that the distribution of the minimum and maximum of such a process is an EPT density mixed with a pointmass at zero. The Laplace Transform of these distributions correspond to the discrete time Wiener-Hopf factors of the discrete time 2-EPT process. A distribution of daily log-returns, observed over the period 1931-2011 from a prominent US index, is approximated with a 2-EPT density function. Without the non-negativity condition, it is illustrated how this problem is transformed into a discrete time rational approximation problem. The rational approximation software RARL2 is used to carry out this approximation. The non-negativity constraint is then imposed via a convex optimisation procedure after the unconstrained approximation. Sufficient and necessary conditions are derived to characterise infinitely divisible EPT and 2-EPT functions. Infinitely divisible 2-EPT density functions generate 2-EPT Lévy processes. An assets log returns can be modelled as a 2-EPT Lévy process. Closed form pricing formulae are then derived for European Options with specific times to maturity. Formulae for discretely monitored Lookback Options and 2-Period Bermudan Options are also provided. Certain Greeks, including Delta and Gamma, of these options are also computed analytically. MATLAB scripts are provided for calculations involving 2-EPT functions. Numerical option pricing examples illustrate the effectiveness of the 2-EPT approach to financial modelling.

Queues with inter- ruption in Random/ Markovian Environment

In many situations probability models are more realistic than deterministic models. Several phenomena occurring in physics are studied as random phenomena changing with time and space. Stochastic processes originated from the needs of physicists.Let X(t) be a random variable where t is a parameter assuming values from the set T. Then the collection of random variables {X(t), t ∈ T} is called a stochastic process. We denote the state of the process at time t by X(t) and the collection of all possible values X(t) can assume, is called state space

Diagnostic tools in beta regression with varying dispersion

We consider the issue of performing residual and local influence analyses in beta regression models with varying dispersion, which are useful for modelling random variables that assume values in the standard unit interval. In such models, both the mean and the dispersion depend upon independent variables. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. An application using real data is presented and discussed.

Labeling the nodes in the intrinsic order graph with their weights

[EN] This paper deals with the study of some new properties of the intrinsic order graph. The intrinsic order graph is the natural graphical representation of a complex stochastic Boolean system (CSBS). A CSBS is a system depending on an arbitrarily large number n of mutually independent random Boolean variables. The intrinsic order graph displays its 2n vertices (associated to the CSBS) from top to bottom, in decreasing order of their occurrence probabilities. New relations between the intrinsic ordering and the Hamming weight (i.e., the number of 1-bits in a binary n-tuple) are derived. Further, the distribution of the weights of the 2n nodes in the intrinsic order graph is analyzed…

The SEIQS stochastic epidemic model with external source of infection

This paper deals with a stochastic epidemic model for computer viruses with latent and quarantine periods, and two sources of infection: internal and external. All sojourn times are considered random variables which are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. For this model extinction and hazard times are analyzed, giving results for their Laplace transforms and moments. The transient behavior is considered by studying the number of times that computers are susceptible, exposed, infectious and quarantined during a period of time (0, t] and results for their joint and marginal distributions, moments and cross moments are presented. In order to give light this analysis, some numerical examples are showed.

Random vibration of the functionally graded laminates in thermal environments

This work deals with the random free vibration of functionally graded laminates with general boundary conditions and subjected to a temperature change, taking into account the randomness in a number of independent input variables such as Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio and thermal expansion coefficient of each constituent material. Based on third-order shear deformation theory, the mixed-type formulation and a semi-analytical approach are employed to derive the standard eigenvalue problem in terms of deflection, mid-plane rotations and stress function. A mean-centered first-order perturbation technique is adopted to obtain the second-order statistics of vibration frequencies. A detailed parametric study is conducted, and extensive numerical results are presented in both tabular and graphical forms for laminated plates that contain functionally graded material which is made of aluminum and zirconia, showing the effects of scattering in thermo-clastic material constants, temperature change, edge support condition, side-to-thickness ratio, and plate aspect ratio on the stochastic characteristics of natural frequencies. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationship between religiosity, religious coping and socio-demographic variables among out-patients with depression or diabetes mellitus in Enugu, Nigeria.

Background: Religion is a powerful coping strategy. Diabetes and depression are common conditions in our environment that induce psychological distress, thus requiring coping for better outcome. Studies indicate that increased religiosity is associated with better outcome in clinical and general populations. Therefore, studies of the distribution of religiosity and religious coping among these populations are essential to improve outcome. Objectives: To assess the association between religiosity, religious coping in depression and diabetes mellitus, and selected sociodemographic variables (age, gender and occupational status). Methods:Using simple random sampling we recruited 112 participants with diabetes and an equal number with depression consecutively, matching for gender. Religiosity was determined using religious orientation scale (revised), religious coping with brief religious coping scale and socio-demographic variables with a socio-demographic questionnaire. Results: Intrinsic religiosity was greater among older people with depression than among older people with diabetes(t=5.02,p<0.001); no significant difference among young people with depression and diabetes(t=1.47,p=0.15).Positive religious coping was greater among older people with depression than among older people with diabetes(t=2.31,p=0.02); no difference among young people with depression and diabetes(t=0.80,p=0.43). Females with depression had higher intrinsic religiosity scores than males with depression(t=3.85,p<0.001); no difference in intrinsic religiosity between females and males with diabetes(t=0.99,p=0.32).Positive religious coping was greater among participants with diabetes in the low occupational status(t=2.96,p<0.001) than those in the high occupational status. Conclusion: Religion is indeed a reliable coping method, most commonly used by the elderly and females with depression. Positive religious coping is more common among diabetic patients who are in the low occupational status.

Using a Bayesian network to model colonisation with Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE)

Objective: Effective management of multi-resistant organisms is an important issue for hospitals both in Australia and overseas. This study investigates the utility of using Bayesian Network (BN) analysis to examine relationships between risk factors and colonization with Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE). Design: Bayesian Network Analysis was performed using infection control data collected over a period of 36 months (2008-2010). Setting: Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH), Brisbane. Outcome of interest: Number of new VRE Isolates Methods: A BN is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). BN enables multiple interacting agents to be studied simultaneously. The initial BN model was constructed based on the infectious disease physician‟s expert knowledge and current literature. Continuous variables were dichotomised by using third quartile values of year 2008 data. BN was used to examine the probabilistic relationships between VRE isolates and risk factors; and to establish which factors were associated with an increased probability of a high number of VRE isolates. Software: Netica (version 4.16). Results: Preliminary analysis revealed that VRE transmission and VRE prevalence were the most influential factors in predicting a high number of VRE isolates. Interestingly, several factors (hand hygiene and cleaning) known through literature to be associated with VRE prevalence, did not appear to be as influential as expected in this BN model. Conclusions: This preliminary work has shown that Bayesian Network Analysis is a useful tool in examining clinical infection prevention issues, where there is often a web of factors that influence outcomes. This BN model can be restructured easily enabling various combinations of agents to be studied.