Power system sensitivity analysis for probabilistic small signal stability assessment in a deregulated environment

Deregulations and market practices in power industry have brought great challenges to the system planning area. In particular, they introduce a variety of uncertainties to system planning. New techniques are required to cope with such uncertainties. As a promising approach, probabilistic methods are attracting more and more attentions by system planners. In small signal stability analysis, generation control parameters play an important role in determining the stability margin. The objective of this paper is to investigate power system state matrix sensitivity characteristics with respect to system parameter uncertainties with analytical and numerical approaches and to identify those parameters have great impact on system eigenvalues, therefore, the system stability properties. Those identified parameter variations need to be investigated with priority. The results can be used to help Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs) perform planning studies under the open access environment.

Discovering user access pattern based on probabilistic latent factor model

There has been an increased demand for characterizing user access patterns using web mining techniques since the informative knowledge extracted from web server log files can not only offer benefits for web site structure improvement but also for better understanding of user navigational behavior. In this paper, we present a web usage mining method, which utilize web user usage and page linkage information to capture user access pattern based on Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) model. A specific probabilistic model analysis algorithm, EM algorithm, is applied to the integrated usage data to infer the latent semantic factors as well as generate user session clusters for revealing user access patterns. Experiments have been conducted on real world data set to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results have shown that the presented method is capable of characterizing the latent semantic factors and generating user profile in terms of weighted page vectors, which may reflect the common access interest exhibited by users among same session cluster.

A web recommendation technique based on probabilistic latent semantic analysis

Web transaction data between Web visitors and Web functionalities usually convey user task-oriented behavior pattern. Mining such type of click-stream data will lead to capture usage pattern information. Nowadays Web usage mining technique has become one of most widely used methods for Web recommendation, which customizes Web content to user-preferred style. Traditional techniques of Web usage mining, such as Web user session or Web page clustering, association rule and frequent navigational path mining can only discover usage pattern explicitly. They, however, cannot reveal the underlying navigational activities and identify the latent relationships that are associated with the patterns among Web users as well as Web pages. In this work, we propose a Web recommendation framework incorporating Web usage mining technique based on Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) model. The main advantages of this method are, not only to discover usage-based access pattern, but also to reveal the underlying latent factor as well. With the discovered user access pattern, we then present user more interested content via collaborative recommendation. To validate the effectiveness of proposed approach, we conduct experiments on real world datasets and make comparisons with some existing traditional techniques. The preliminary experimental results demonstrate the usability of the proposed approach.

A novel grid computing approach for probabilistic small signal analysis

Grid computing is an advanced technique for collaboratively solving complicated scientific problems using geographically and organisational dispersed computational, data storage and other recourses. Application of grid computing could provide significant benefits to all aspects of power system that involves using computers. Based on our previous research, this paper presents a novel grid computing approach for probabilistic small signal stability (PSSS) analysis in electric power systems with uncertainties. A prototype computing grid is successfully implemented in our research lab to carry out PSSS analysis on two benchmark systems. Comparing to traditional computing techniques, the gird computing has given better performances for PSSS analysis in terms of computing capacity, speed, accuracy and stability. In addition, a computing grid framework for power system analysis has been proposed based on the recent study.

Mixtures of probabilistic principal component analysers

Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the most popular techniques for processing, compressing and visualising data, although its effectiveness is limited by its global linearity. While nonlinear variants of PCA have been proposed, an alternative paradigm is to capture data complexity by a combination of local linear PCA projections. However, conventional PCA does not correspond to a probability density, and so there is no unique way to combine PCA models. Previous attempts to formulate mixture models for PCA have therefore to some extent been ad hoc. In this paper, PCA is formulated within a maximum-likelihood framework, based on a specific form of Gaussian latent variable model. This leads to a well-defined mixture model for probabilistic principal component analysers, whose parameters can be determined using an EM algorithm. We discuss the advantages of this model in the context of clustering, density modelling and local dimensionality reduction, and we demonstrate its application to image compression and handwritten digit recognition.

Challenging the predictive ability of accounting techniques in modelling organizational futures

This article considers the role of accounting in organisational decision making. It challenges the rational nature of decisions made in organisations through the use of accounting models and the problems of predicting the future through the use of such models. The use of accounting in this manner is evaluated from an epochal postmodern stance. Issues raised by chaos theory and the uncertainty principle are used to demonstrate problems with the predictive ability of accounting models. The authors argue that any consideration of the predictive value of accounting needs to change to incorporate a recognition of the turbulent external environment, if it is to be of use for organisational decision making. Thus it is argued that the role of accounting as a mechanism for knowledge creation regarding the future is fundamentally flawed. We take this as a starting-point to argue for the real purpose of the use of the predictive techniques of accounting, using its ritualistic role in the context of myth creation to argue for the cultural benefits of the use of such flawed techniques.

Probabilistic methods for drug discovery

This thesis introduces a flexible visual data exploration framework which combines advanced projection algorithms from the machine learning domain with visual representation techniques developed in the information visualisation domain to help a user to explore and understand effectively large multi-dimensional datasets. The advantage of such a framework to other techniques currently available to the domain experts is that the user is directly involved in the data mining process and advanced machine learning algorithms are employed for better projection. A hierarchical visualisation model guided by a domain expert allows them to obtain an informed segmentation of the input space. Two other components of this thesis exploit properties of these principled probabilistic projection algorithms to develop a guided mixture of local experts algorithm which provides robust prediction and a model to estimate feature saliency simultaneously with the training of a projection algorithm.Local models are useful since a single global model cannot capture the full variability of a heterogeneous data space such as the chemical space. Probabilistic hierarchical visualisation techniques provide an effective soft segmentation of an input space by a visualisation hierarchy whose leaf nodes represent different regions of the input space. We use this soft segmentation to develop a guided mixture of local experts (GME) algorithm which is appropriate for the heterogeneous datasets found in chemoinformatics problems. Moreover, in this approach the domain experts are more involved in the model development process which is suitable for an intuition and domain knowledge driven task such as drug discovery. We also derive a generative topographic mapping (GTM) based data visualisation approach which estimates feature saliency simultaneously with the training of a visualisation model.

Transferring knowledge of manufacturing techniques within a subsidiary of a multi-national corporation

With the growth of the multi-national corporation (MNCs) has come the need to understand how parent companies transfer knowledge to, and manage the operations of, their subsidiaries. This is of particular interest to manufacturing companies transferring their operations overseas. Japanese companies in particular have been pioneering in the development of techniques such as Kaizen, and elements of the Toyota Production System (TPS) such as Kanban, which can be useful tools for transferring the ethos of Japanese manufacturing and maintaining quality and control in overseas subsidiaries. Much has been written about the process of transferring Japanese manufacturing techniques but much less is understood about how the subsidiaries themselves – which are required to make use of such techniques – actually acquire and incorporate them into their operations. This research therefore takes the perspective of the subsidiary in examining how knowledge of manufacturing techniques is transferred from the parent company within its surrounding (subsidiary). There is clearly a need to take a practice-based view to understanding how the local managers and operatives incorporate this knowledge into their working practices. A particularly relevant theme is how subsidiaries both replicate and adapt knowledge from parents and the circumstances in which replication or adaptation occurs. However, it is shown that there is a lack of research which takes an in-depth look at these processes from the perspective of the participants themselves. This is particularly important as much knowledge literature argues that knowledge is best viewed as enacted and learned in practice – and therefore transferred in person – rather than by the transfer of abstract and de-contextualised information. What is needed, therefore, is further research which makes an in-depth examination of what happens at the subsidiary level for this transfer process to occur. There is clearly a need to take a practice-based view to understanding how the local managers and operatives incorporate knowledge about manufacturing techniques into their working practices. In depth qualitative research was, therefore, conducted in the subsidiary of a Japanese multinational, Gambatte Corporation, involving three main manufacturing initiatives (or philosophies), namely 'TPS‘, 'TPM‘ and 'TS‘. The case data were derived from 52 in-depth interviews with project members, moderate-participant observations, and documentations and presented and analysed in episodes format. This study contributes to our understanding of knowledge transfer in relation to the approaches and circumstances of adaptation and replication of knowledge within the subsidiary, how the whole process is developed, and also how 'innovation‘ takes place. This study further understood that the process of knowledge transfer could be explained as a process of Reciprocal Provider-Learner Exchange that can be linked to the Experiential Learning Theory.

Transferring knowledge of manufacturing techniques in multinational corporations:preliminary findings

With the growth of the multinational corporation (MNC) has come the need to understand how parent companies transfer knowledge to, and manage the operations of, their subsidiaries. This is of particular interest to manufacturing companies transferring their operations overseas. Japanese companies in particular have been pioneering in this regard, with techniques such as the Toyota Production System (TPS) for transferring the ethos of Japanese manufacturing and maintaining quality and control in overseas subsidiaries. A great deal has been written about the process of transferring Japanese manufacturing techniques, but much less is understood about how the subsidiaries themselves, which are required to make use of such techniques, actually acquire and incorporate them into their operations. The research on which this paper is based therefore examines how, from the perspective of the subsidiary, knowledge of manufacturing techniques is transferred from the parent company. There is clearly a need to take a practice-based view to understanding how the local managers and operatives incorporate knowledge about manufacturing techniques into their working practices. In-depth qualitative research was, therefore, conducted in the subsidiary of a Japanese multinational, Denso Corporation, involving three main manufacturing initiatives (or philosophies), namely ‘TPS’, ‘TPM’ and ‘TS’. The case data were derived from 52 in-depth interviews with project members, moderate participant observations, and documentations. The aim of this paper is to present the preliminary findings from the case analyses. The research contributes to our understanding of knowledge transfer in relation to the circumstances of the selection between adaptation and replication of knowledge in the subsidiary from its parent. In particular this understanding relates to transfer across different flows and levels in the organisational hierarchy, how the whole process is managed, and also how modification takes place.

Fully probabilistic control for stochastic nonlinear control systems with input dependent noise

Robust controllers for nonlinear stochastic systems with functional uncertainties can be consistently designed using probabilistic control methods. In this paper a generalised probabilistic controller design for the minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the actual joint probability density function (pdf) of the closed loop control system, and an ideal joint pdf is presented emphasising how the uncertainty can be systematically incorporated in the absence of reliable systems models. To achieve this objective all probabilistic models of the system are estimated from process data using mixture density networks (MDNs) where all the parameters of the estimated pdfs are taken to be state and control input dependent. Based on this dependency of the density parameters on the input values, explicit formulations to the construction of optimal generalised probabilistic controllers are obtained through the techniques of dynamic programming and adaptive critic methods. Using the proposed generalised probabilistic controller, the conditional joint pdfs can be made to follow the ideal ones. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the implementation of the algorithm and encouraging results are obtained.

Probabilistic multiple model neural network based leak detection system:experimental study

This paper presents an effective decision making system for leak detection based on multiple generalized linear models and clustering techniques. The training data for the proposed decision system is obtained by setting up an experimental pipeline fully operational distribution system. The system is also equipped with data logging for three variables; namely, inlet pressure, outlet pressure, and outlet flow. The experimental setup is designed such that multi-operational conditions of the distribution system, including multi pressure and multi flow can be obtained. We then statistically tested and showed that pressure and flow variables can be used as signature of leak under the designed multi-operational conditions. It is then shown that the detection of leakages based on the training and testing of the proposed multi model decision system with pre data clustering, under multi operational conditions produces better recognition rates in comparison to the training based on the single model approach. This decision system is then equipped with the estimation of confidence limits and a method is proposed for using these confidence limits for obtaining more robust leakage recognition results.

Probabilistic topographic information visualisation

The focus of this thesis is the extension of topographic visualisation mappings to allow for the incorporation of uncertainty. Few visualisation algorithms in the literature are capable of mapping uncertain data with fewer able to represent observation uncertainties in visualisations. As such, modifications are made to NeuroScale, Locally Linear Embedding, Isomap and Laplacian Eigenmaps to incorporate uncertainty in the observation and visualisation spaces. The proposed mappings are then called Normally-distributed NeuroScale (N-NS), T-distributed NeuroScale (T-NS), Probabilistic LLE (PLLE), Probabilistic Isomap (PIso) and Probabilistic Weighted Neighbourhood Mapping (PWNM). These algorithms generate a probabilistic visualisation space with each latent visualised point transformed to a multivariate Gaussian or T-distribution, using a feed-forward RBF network. Two types of uncertainty are then characterised dependent on the data and mapping procedure. Data dependent uncertainty is the inherent observation uncertainty. Whereas, mapping uncertainty is defined by the Fisher Information of a visualised distribution. This indicates how well the data has been interpolated, offering a level of ‘surprise’ for each observation. These new probabilistic mappings are tested on three datasets of vectorial observations and three datasets of real world time series observations for anomaly detection. In order to visualise the time series data, a method for analysing observed signals and noise distributions, Residual Modelling, is introduced. The performance of the new algorithms on the tested datasets is compared qualitatively with the latent space generated by the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GPLVM). A quantitative comparison using existing evaluation measures from the literature allows performance of each mapping function to be compared. Finally, the mapping uncertainty measure is combined with NeuroScale to build a deep learning classifier, the Cascading RBF. This new structure is tested on the MNist dataset achieving world record performance whilst avoiding the flaws seen in other Deep Learning Machines.

Specification and quantitative analysis of probabilistic cloud deployment patterns

Cloud computing is a new technological paradigm offering computing infrastructure, software and platforms as a pay-as-you-go, subscription-based service. Many potential customers of cloud services require essential cost assessments to be undertaken before transitioning to the cloud. Current assessment techniques are imprecise as they rely on simplified specifications of resource requirements that fail to account for probabilistic variations in usage. In this paper, we address these problems and propose a new probabilistic pattern modelling (PPM) approach to cloud costing and resource usage verification. Our approach is based on a concise expression of probabilistic resource usage patterns translated to Markov decision processes (MDPs). Key costing and usage queries are identified and expressed in a probabilistic variant of temporal logic and calculated to a high degree of precision using quantitative verification techniques. The PPM cost assessment approach has been implemented as a Java library and validated with a case study and scalability experiments. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Improved image analysis based corrosion assessment using preprocessing techniques

The importance of non-destructive techniques (NDT) in structural health monitoring programmes is being critically felt in the recent times. The quality of the measured data, often affected by various environmental conditions can be a guiding factor in terms usefulness and prediction efficiencies of the various detection and monitoring methods used in this regard. Often, a preprocessing of the acquired data in relation to the affecting environmental parameters can improve the information quality and lead towards a significantly more efficient and correct prediction process. The improvement can be directly related to the final decision making policy about a structure or a network of structures and is compatible with general probabilistic frameworks of such assessment and decision making programmes. This paper considers a preprocessing technique employed for an image analysis based structural health monitoring methodology to identify sub-marine pitting corrosion in the presence of variable luminosity, contrast and noise affecting the quality of images. A preprocessing of the gray-level threshold of the various images is observed to bring about a significant improvement in terms of damage detection as compared to an automatically computed gray-level threshold. The case dependent adjustments of the threshold enable to obtain the best possible information from an existing image. The corresponding improvements are observed in a qualitative manner in the present study.

On the Advancement of Probabilistic Models of Decompression Sickness

The work presented in this dissertation is focused on applying engineering methods to develop and explore probabilistic survival models for the prediction of decompression sickness in US NAVY divers. Mathematical modeling, computational model development, and numerical optimization techniques were employed to formulate and evaluate the predictive quality of models fitted to empirical data. In Chapters 1 and 2 we present general background information relevant to the development of probabilistic models applied to predicting the incidence of decompression sickness. The remainder of the dissertation introduces techniques developed in an effort to improve the predictive quality of probabilistic decompression models and to reduce the difficulty of model parameter optimization.

The first project explored seventeen variations of the hazard function using a well-perfused parallel compartment model. Models were parametrically optimized using the maximum likelihood technique. Model performance was evaluated using both classical statistical methods and model selection techniques based on information theory. Optimized model parameters were overall similar to those of previously published Results indicated that a novel hazard function definition that included both ambient pressure scaling and individually fitted compartment exponent scaling terms.

We developed ten pharmacokinetic compartmental models that included explicit delay mechanics to determine if predictive quality could be improved through the inclusion of material transfer lags. A fitted discrete delay parameter augmented the inflow to the compartment systems from the environment. Based on the observation that symptoms are often reported after risk accumulation begins for many of our models, we hypothesized that the inclusion of delays might improve correlation between the model predictions and observed data. Model selection techniques identified two models as having the best overall performance, but comparison to the best performing model without delay and model selection using our best identified no delay pharmacokinetic model both indicated that the delay mechanism was not statistically justified and did not substantially improve model predictions.

Our final investigation explored parameter bounding techniques to identify parameter regions for which statistical model failure will not occur. When a model predicts a no probability of a diver experiencing decompression sickness for an exposure that is known to produce symptoms, statistical model failure occurs. Using a metric related to the instantaneous risk, we successfully identify regions where model failure will not occur and identify the boundaries of the region using a root bounding technique. Several models are used to demonstrate the techniques, which may be employed to reduce the difficulty of model optimization for future investigations.