Explaining the moon illusion

An old explanation of the moon illusion holds that various cues place the horizon moon at an effectively greater distance than the elevated moon. Although both moons have the same angular size, the horizon moon must be perceived as larger. More recent explanations hold that differences in accommodation or other factors cause the elevated moon to appear smaller. As a result of this illusory difference in size, the elevated moon appears to be more distant than the horizon moon. These two explanations, both based on the geometry of stereopsis, lead to two diametrically opposed hypotheses. That is, a depth interval at a long distance is associated with a smaller binocular disparity, whereas an equal depth interval at a smaller distance is associated with a larger disparity. We conducted experiments involving artificial moons and confirmed the hypothesis that the horizon moon is at a greater perceptual distance. Moreover, when a moon of constant angular size was moved closer it was also perceived as growing smaller, which is consistent with the older explanation. Although Emmert's law does not predict the size–distance relationship over long distances, we conclude that the horizon moon is perceived as larger because the perceptual system treats it as though it is much farther away. Finally, we observe that recent explanations substitute perceived size for angular size as a cue to distance. Thus, they imply that perceptions cause perceptions.

The wagon wheel illusion in movies and reality.

Wheels turning in the movies or in other forms of stroboscopic presentation often appear to be rotating backward. Remarkably, a similar illusion is also seen in continuous light. The occurrence of this perception in the absence of intermittent illumination suggests that we normally see motion, as in movies, by processing a series of visual episodes.

On the periphery of global jihad. The North Caucasus: the illusion of stabilisation. OSW Point of View Number 45, November 2014

The situation in the North Caucasus has stabilised, in comparison with previous years, mainly as regards the activity of the Islamic military underground. This is an effect of ideological changes among the militants which have led to a dilution of the Caucasian armed struggle and its marginalisation in global jihad, since top priority has been granted to the Middle Eastern front. The factors which have contributed to this stabilisation are the organisational crisis in the Caucasus Emirate and the outflux of militants to the Middle East, as well the successful ‘carrot and stick’ policy adopted by Moscow. However, the partial stabilisation in the Caucasus is inherently precarious, being a contingent outcome of the situation rather than the result of systemic change. The region’s pressing problems remain unresolved; and these problems are generating chronic instability and cauing the Caucasus to drift away from Russia in civilisational terms. An economic or political crisis in the Russian Federation may result in the conflicts in the Caucasus unfreezing, including a reactivation of the idea of Chechen independence as well as the idea of the Caucasus Emirate, which is a part of global jihad.

The Athenian empire and the great illusion /

"This essay was awarded the prize offered by the Garton Foundation to the Cambridge University War and Peace Society for the year 1912-13."

De l'illusion, son mécanisme psycho-social.

Mode of access: Internet.

The fruits of victory; a sequel to "The great illusion",

Mode of access: Internet.

Kunst und illusion,

Mode of access: Internet.

Isles of illusion; letters from the South Seas,

Mode of access: Internet.

Do expert drivers have a reduced illusion of superiority?

It is well established that people tend to rate themselves as better than average across many domains. To maintain these illusions, it is suggested that people distort feedback about their own and others' performance. This study examined expert/novice differences in self-ratings when people compared themselves with others of the same level of expertise and background as themselves. Given that a key expert characteristic is increased self-monitoring, we predicted that experts in a domain may have a reduced illusion of superiority because they are more aware of their actual ability. We compared expert police drivers with novice police drivers and found that this prediction was not supported. Expert police drivers rated themselves as superior to equally qualified drivers, to the same degree as novices, Cohen's d = .03 ns. Despite their extensive additional training and experience, experts still appear to be as susceptible to illusions of superiority Lis everyone else. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drivers' ratings of different components of their own driving skill: A greater illusion of superiority for skills that relate to accident involvement

Different components of driving skill relate to accident involvement in different ways. For instance, while hazard-perception skill has been found to predict accident involvement, vehicle-control skill has not. We found that drivers rated themselves superior to both their peers and the average driver on 18 components of driving skill (N = 181 respondents). These biases were greater for hazard-perception skills than for either vehicle-control skills or driving skill in general. Also, ratings of hazard-perception skill related to self-perceived safety after overall skill was controlled for. We suggest that although drivers appear to appreciate the role of hazard perception in safe driving, any safety benefit to be derived from this appreciation may be undermined by drivers' inflated opinions of their own hazard-perception skill. We also tested the relationship between illusory beliefs about driving skill and risk taking and looked at ways of manipulating drivers' illusory beliefs.

Motorcycle accident risk could be inflated by a time to arrival illusion

Purpose. Drivers adopt smaller safety margins when pulling out in front of motorcycles compared with cars. This could partly account for why the most common motorcycle/car accident involves a car violating a motorcyclist's right of way. One possible explanation is the size-arrival effect in which smaller objects are perceived to arrive later than larger objects. That is, drivers may estimate the time to arrival of motorcycles to be later than cars because motorcycles are smaller. Methods. We investigated arrival time judgments using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Drivers recruited from the student population (n = 28 and n = 33) saw video footage of oncoming vehicles and had to press a response button when they judged that vehicles would reach them. Results. In experiment 1, the time to arrival of motorcycles was estimated to be significantly later than larger vehicles (a car and a van) for different approach speeds and viewing times. In experiment 2, we investigated an alternative explanation to the size-arrival effect: that the smaller size of motorcycles places them below the threshold needed for observers to make an accurate time to arrival judgment using tau. We found that the motorcycle/car difference in arrival time estimates was maintained for very short occlusion durations when tau could be estimated for both motorcycles and cars. Conclusions. Results are consistent with the size-arrival effect and are inconsistent with the tau threshold explanation. Drivers estimate motorcycles will reach them later than cars across a range of conditions. This could have safety implications.