A review of pedestrian group dynamics and methodologies in modelling pedestrian group behaviours

Observations conducted by researchers revealed that the group interaction within crowds is a common phenomenon and has great influence on pedestrian behaviour. However, most research currently undertaken by various researchers failed to consider the group dynamics when developing pedestrian flow models. This paper presented a critical review of pedestrian models that incorporates group behaviour. Models reviewed in this paper are mainly created by microscopic modelling approaches such as social force, cellular automata, and agent-based method. The purpose of this literature review is to improve the understanding of group dynamics among pedestrians and highlight the need for considering group dynamics when developing pedestrian simulation models.

Analysis of DNA sequence transformations on grids

Study of the evolution of species or organisms is essential for various biological applications. Evolution is typically studied at the molecular level by analyzing the mutations of DNA sequences of organisms. Techniques have been developed for building phylogenetic or evolutionary trees for a set of sequences. Though phylogenetic trees capture the overall evolutionary relationships among the sequences, they do not reveal fine-level details of the evolution. In this work, we attempt to resolve various fine-level sequence transformation details associated with a phylogenetic tree using cellular automata. In particular, our work tries to determine the cellular automata rules for neighbor-dependent mutations of segments of DNA sequences. We also determine the number of time steps needed for evolution of a progeny from an ancestor and the unknown segments of the intermediate sequences in the phylogenetic tree. Due to the existence of vast number of cellular automata rules, we have developed a grid system that performs parallel guided explorations of the rules on grid resources. We demonstrate our techniques by conducting experiments on a grid comprising machines in three countries and obtaining potentially useful statistics regarding evolutions in three HIV sequences. In particular, our work is able to verify the phenomenon of neighbor-dependent mutations and find that certain combinations of neighbor-dependent mutations, defined by a cellular automata rule, occur with greater than 90% probability. We also find the average number of time steps for mutations for some branches of phylogenetic tree over a large number of possible transformations with standard deviations less than 2.

Phylogenetic Predictions on Grids

A phylogenetic or evolutionary tree is constructed from a set of species or DNA sequences and depicts the relatedness between the sequences. Predictions of future sequences in a phylogenetic tree are important for a variety of applications including drug discovery, pharmaceutical research and disease control. In this work, we predict future DNA sequences in a phylogenetic tree using cellular automata. Cellular automata are used for modeling neighbor-dependent mutations from an ancestor to a progeny in a branch of the phylogenetic tree. Since the number of possible ways of transformations from an ancestor to a progeny is huge, we use computational grids and middleware techniques to explore the large number of cellular automata rules used for the mutations. We use the popular and recurring neighbor-based transitions or mutations to predict the progeny sequences in the phylogenetic tree. We performed predictions for three types of sequences, namely, triose phosphate isomerase, pyruvate kinase, and polyketide synthase sequences, by obtaining cellular automata rules on a grid consisting of 29 machines in 4 clusters located in 4 countries, and compared the predictions of the sequences using our method with predictions by random methods. We found that in all cases, our method gave about 40% better predictions than the random methods.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Preliminary comparison of natural versus model-predicted recovery of vessel-generated seagrass injuries in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Each year, more than 500 motorized vessel groundings cause widespread damage to seagrasses in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Under Section 312 of the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA), any party responsible for the loss, injury, or destruction of any Sanctuary resource, including seagrass, is liable to the United States for response costs and resulting damages. As part of the damage assessment process, a cellular automata model is utilized to forecast seagrass recovery rates. Field validation of these forecasts was accomplished by comparing model-predicted percent recovery to that which was observed to be occurring naturally for 30 documented vessel grounding sites. Model recovery forecasts for both Thalassia testudinum and Syringodium filiforme exceeded natural recovery estimates for 93.1% and 89.5% of the sites, respectively. For Halodule wrightii, the number of over- and under-predictions by the model was similar. However, where under-estimation occurred, it was often severe, reflecting the well-known extraordinary growth potential of this opportunistic species. These preliminary findings indicate that the recovery model is consistently generous to Responsible Parties in that the model forecasts a much faster recovery than was observed to occur naturally, particularly for T. testudinum, the dominant seagrass species in the region and the species most often affected. Environmental setting (i.e., location, wave exposure) influences local seagrass landscape pattern and may also play a role in the recovery dynamics for a particular injury site. An examination of the relationship between selected environmental factors and injury recovery dynamics is currently underway. (PDF file contains 20 pages.)

Contributions to the analysis and segmentation of remote sensing hyperspectral images

142 p.

Hardware reconfigurável para geração de música harmonizada utilizando autômatos celulares.

Desde os primórdios da humanidade, a descoberta do método de processamento cerebral do som, e consequentemente da música, fazem parte do imaginário humano. Portanto, as pesquisas relacionadas a este processo constituem um dos mais vastos campos de estudos das áreas de ciências. Dentre as inúmeras tentativas para compreensão do processamento biológico do som, o ser humano inventou o processo automático de composição musical, com o intuito de aferir a possibilidade da realização de composições musicais de qualidade sem a imposição sentimental, ou seja, apenas com a utilização das definições e estruturas de música existentes. Este procedimento automático de composição musical, também denominado música aleatória ou música do acaso, tem sido vastamente explorado ao longo dos séculos, já tendo sido utilizado por alguns dos grandes nomes do cenário musical, como por exemplo, Mozart. Os avanços nas áreas de engenharia e computação permitiram a evolução dos métodos utilizados para composição de música aleatória, tornando a aplicação de autômatos celulares uma alternativa viável para determinação da sequência de execução de notas musicais e outros itens utilizados durante a composição deste tipo de música. Esta dissertação propõe uma arquitetura para geração de música harmonizada a partir de intervalos melódicos determinados por autômatos celulares, implementada em hardware reconfigurável do tipo FPGA. A arquitetura proposta possui quatro tipos de autômatos celulares, desenvolvidos através dos modelos de vizinhança unidimensional de Wolfram, vizinhança bidimensional de Neumann, vizinhança bidimensional Moore e vizinhança tridimensional de Neumann, que podem ser combinados de 16 formas diferentes para geração de melodias. Os resultados do processamento realizado pela arquitetura proposta são melodias no formato .mid, compostas através da utilização de dois autômatos celulares, um para escolha das notas e outro para escolha dos instrumentos a serem emulados, de acordo com o protocolo MIDI. Para tal esta arquitetura é formada por três unidades principais, a unidade divisor de frequência, que é responsável pelo sincronismo das tarefas executadas pela arquitetura, a unidade de conjunto de autômatos celulares, que é responsável pelo controle e habilitação dos autômatos celulares, e a unidade máquina MIDI, que é responsável por organizar os resultados de cada iteração corrente dos autômatos celulares e convertê-los conforme a estrutura do protocolo MIDI, gerando-se assim o produto musical. A arquitetura proposta é parametrizável, de modo que a configuração dos dados que influenciam no produto musical gerado, como por exemplo, a definição dos conjuntos de regras para os autômatos celulares habilitados, fica a cargo do usuário, não havendo então limites para as combinações possíveis a serem realizadas na arquitetura. Para validação da funcionalidade e aplicabilidade da arquitetura proposta, alguns dos resultados obtidos foram apresentados e detalhados através do uso de técnicas de obtenção de informação musical.

Cenários de mudanças climáticas usando modelagem dinâmica na Bacia do Alto Taquari.

A região Centro-Oeste do Brasil tornou-se nos últimos 40 anos grande produtora de grãos e carne bovina. As condições edafoclimáticas, o sistema de manejo do solo e o descumprimento de leis ambientais trouxeram conseqüências drásticas à região como o agravamento do processo hídrico erosivo, principalmente na Bacia do Alto Taquari (BAT). Cerca de 90% da BAT localiza-se na porção norte do estado de Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), porém os efeitos do transporte de sedimentos e volume de água são refletidos a jusante dos rios, na Bacia do Pantanal. Utilizando-se pressupostos do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) foram estabelecidos cenários de mudanças climáticas na Bacia do Alto Taquari, visando identificar áreas com maior vulnerabilidade ao processo erosivo em função de pressões de uso da terra. Usando a modelagem dinâmica no TerraME (Environment Modeling) foram gerados cenários topopluviais até 2100, considerando-se para a temperatura do ar média anual um aumento de 1C, em cenário otimista e, em pessimista, elevações térmicas de 3C. Para a precipitação pluvial média anual um cenário foi com aumento de 15% e outro com reduções de 15%. Os dados foram espacializados no ArcGis 9.2 e exportados para o TerraView 3.2, criando-se espaços celulares e integrando-se com as informações do modelo digital do terreno do Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) para geração dos mapas topoclimáticos e simulações de cenários no TerraMe. Os resultados apontam que 85% da área da BAT nas condições atuais as temperaturas médias variam entre 23,6 a 25,7C. As simulações térmicas no cenário otimista indicam que em 40 anos as temperaturas tendem a superar o maior limite térmico médio nas áreas ao longo do rio Taquari, no sentido Oeste-Leste. Esses valores evidenciam elevações nas taxas evapotranspiratórias de matas ciliares, indicando reduções na vazão do Taquari. Em cenário pessimista essas temperaturas antecipam sua ocorrência, em um prazo de 20 anos. Os cenários com acréscimo de 15% na precipitação pluvial mostram aumentos no volume de água precipitada na parte norte da Bacia, região mais vulnerável aos problemas de erosão hídrica. Cenários do regime térmico-hídrico apontam áreas mais sensíveis às mudanças climáticas na parte oeste da BAT e impactos ambientais também na Bacia do Pantanal. Conclui-se que o TerraME é indicado para gerar cenários de mudanças climáticas em bacias hidrográficas.

对一个基于细胞自动机的分组密码变形的分析

Subhayan Sen等人提出了一个基于细胞自动机的分组密码系统(cellular automata based cryptosystem,简称CAC),但并没有给出CAC的某些构造模块的细节描述,从应用角度考虑,将其中的一个模块固定得到CAC的变形--SMCAC(samemajor-CACAC).对SMCAC进行密码分析,结果表明,CAC的这种变形在选择明文攻击下是极不安全的.对SMCAC进行分析的意义在于,知道CAC的具体设计细节以后,借鉴对SMCAC的分析,有可能对CAC密码系统本身的安全性造成威胁.

Application of rough set-based analysis to extract spatial relationship indicator rules: An example of land use in Pearl River Delta

Spatial relations, reflecting the complex association between geographical phenomena and environments, are very important in the solution of geographical issues. Different spatial relations can be expressed by indicators which are useful for the analysis of geographical issues. Urbanization, an important geographical issue, is considered in this paper. The spatial relationship indicators concerning urbanization are expressed with a decision table. Thereafter, the spatial relationship indicator rules are extracted based on the application of rough set theory. The extraction process of spatial relationship indicator rules is illustrated with data from the urban and rural areas of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, located in the Pearl River Delta. Land use vector data of 1995 and 2000 are used. The extracted spatial relationship indicator rules of 1995 are used to identify the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Macao. The identification accuracy is approximately 96.3%. Similar procedures are used to extract the spatial relationship indicator rules of 2000 for the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Macao. An identification accuracy of about 83.6% is obtained.

QCA Systolic array design

Quantum-dot Cellular Automata (QCA) technology is a promising potential alternative to CMOS technology. To explore the characteristics of QCA and suitable design methodologies, digital circuit design approaches have been investigated. Due to the inherent wire delay in QCA, pipelined architectures appear to be a particularly suitable design technique. Also, because of the pipeline nature of QCA technology, it is not suitable for complicated control system design. Systolic arrays take advantage of pipelining, parallelism and simple local control. Therefore, an investigation into these architectures in QCA technology is provided in this paper. Two case studies, (a matrix multiplier and a Galois Field multiplier) are designed and analyzed based on both multilayer and coplanar crossings. The performance of these two types of interconnections are compared and it is found that even though coplanar crossings are currently more practical, they tend to occupy a larger design area and incur slightly more delay. A general semi-conductor QCA systolic array design methodology is also proposed. It is found that by applying a systolic array structure in QCA design, significant benefits can be achieved particularly with large systolic arrays, even more so than when applied in CMOS-based technology.

A compendium of modelling techniques

This Integration Insight provides a brief overview of the most popular modelling techniques used to analyse complex real-world problems, as well as some less popular but highly relevant techniques. The modelling methods are divided into three categories, with each encompassing a number of methods, as follows: 1) Qualitative Aggregate Models (Soft Systems Methodology, Concept Maps and Mind Mapping, Scenario Planning, Causal (Loop) Diagrams), 2) Quantitative Aggregate Models (Function fitting and Regression, Bayesian Nets, System of differential equations / Dynamical systems, System Dynamics, Evolutionary Algorithms) and 3) Individual Oriented Models (Cellular Automata, Microsimulation, Agent Based Models, Discrete Event Simulation, Social Network
Analysis). Each technique is broadly described with example uses, key attributes and reference material.

Modélisation de répartition d’espèces aviaires et de feux en forêt boréale du Québec dans un contexte de changement climatique

Les changements climatiques prennent une importance grandissante dans l’étude des phénomènes spatiaux à grande échelle. Plusieurs experts affirment que les changements climatiques seront un des principaux moteurs de changement écologique dans les prochaines décennies et que leurs conséquences seront inévitables. Ces changements se manifesteront sur le milieu physique par la fonte des calottes glaciaires, le dégel du pergélisol, l’instabilité des versants montagneux en zone de pergélisol, l’augmentation de l’intensité, de la sévérité et de la fréquence des événements climatiques extrêmes tels les feux de forêt. Les changements climatiques se manifesteront aussi sur le milieu biologique, tel la modification de la durée de la saison végétative, l’augmentation des espèces exotiques invasives et les changements dans la distribution en espèces vivantes. Deux aspects sont couverts par cette étude : 1) les changements dans la répartition spatiale de 39 espèces d’oiseaux et 2) les modifications dans les patrons spatiaux des feux, en forêt boréale québécoise, tous deux dans l’horizon climatique de 2100. Une approche de modélisation statistique démontre que la répartition spatiale des oiseaux de la forêt boréale est fortement liée à des variables bioclimatiques (R2adj = 0.53). Ces résultats permettent d’effectuer des modélisations bioclimatiques pour le gros-bec errant et la mésange à tête noire quivoient une augmentation de la limite nordique de distribution de l’espèce suivant l’intensité du réchauffement climatique. Finalement, une modélisation spatialement explicite par automate cellulaire permet de démontrer comment les changements climatiques induiront une augmentation dans la fréquence de feux de forêt et dans la superficie brûlée en forêt boréale du Québec.

Programmable Self-Assembly: Constructing Global Shape using Biologically-inspire

In this thesis I present a language for instructing a sheet of identically-programmed, flexible, autonomous agents (``cells'') to assemble themselves into a predetermined global shape, using local interactions. The global shape is described as a folding construction on a continuous sheet, using a set of axioms from paper-folding (origami). I provide a means of automatically deriving the cell program, executed by all cells, from the global shape description. With this language, a wide variety of global shapes and patterns can be synthesized, using only local interactions between identically-programmed cells. Examples include flat layered shapes, all plane Euclidean constructions, and a variety of tessellation patterns. In contrast to approaches based on cellular automata or evolution, the cell program is directly derived from the global shape description and is composed from a small number of biologically-inspired primitives: gradients, neighborhood query, polarity inversion, cell-to-cell contact and flexible folding. The cell programs are robust, without relying on regular cell placement, global coordinates, or synchronous operation and can tolerate a small amount of random cell death. I show that an average cell neighborhood of 15 is sufficient to reliably self-assemble complex shapes and geometric patterns on randomly distributed cells. The language provides many insights into the relationship between local and global descriptions of behavior, such as the advantage of constructive languages, mechanisms for achieving global robustness, and mechanisms for achieving scale-independent shapes from a single cell program. The language suggests a mechanism by which many related shapes can be created by the same cell program, in the manner of D'Arcy Thompson's famous coordinate transformations. The thesis illuminates how complex morphology and pattern can emerge from local interactions, and how one can engineer robust self-assembly.