Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

Strings in horizons, dissipation and a possible interpretation of the Hagedorn temperature

We consider the entanglement of closed bosonic strings intersecting the event horizon of a Rindler spacetime, and, by using some simplified (rather semiclassical) arguments and some elements of the string field theory, we show the existence of a critical temperature beyond which closed strings cannot be in thermal equilibrium. The order of magnitude of this critical value coincides with the Hagedorn temperature, which suggests an interpretation consistent with the fact of having a partition function that is ill defined for temperatures higher than it. Possible implications of the present approach for the microscopical structure of stretched horizons are also pointed out.

Análise da estabilidade da região externa do sistema Plutão-Caronte após a descoberta dos novos satélites NIX e HIDRA: aplicação à sonda new horizons

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Horizons 2030: Equality at the centre of sustainable development. Summary

The world is living a change of era. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals represent the international community’s response to the economic, distributive and environmental imbalances built up under the prevailing development pattern. This document, presented by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) to its member States at its thirty-sixth session, provides an analytical complement to the 2030 Agenda from a structuralist perspective and from the point of view of the Latin American and Caribbean countries. The proposals made here stem from the need to achieve progressive structural change in order to incorporate more knowledge into production, ensure social inclusion and combat the negative impacts of climate change. The reflections and proposals for advancing towards a new development pattern are geared to achieving equality and environmental sustainability. In these proposals, the creation of global and regional public goods and the corresponding domestic policies form the core for expanding the structuralist tradition towards a global Keynesianism and a development strategy centred around an environmental big push.

Horizons 2030: l’égalité au coeur du développement durable. Synthèse

Le monde traverse un changement d’époque. Face aux déséquilibres économiques, distributifs et environnementaux du mode de développement prédominant, la communauté internationale vient d’adopter le Programme de développement durable à l’horizon 2030 et ses 17 objectifs. Le document que la Commission économique pour l’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes (CEPALC) présente aux états membres à l’occasion de sa trente-sixième session a pour but d’apporter un complément analytique à ce Programme dans la perspective structuraliste du développement et de l’optique des pays d’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes. Les propositions contenues dans ce document sont centrées sur la nécessité de promouvoir un changement structurel progressif qui favorise l’incorporation du savoir à la production, garantisse l’inclusion sociale et combatte les effets néfastes du changement climatique. Les réflexions et les propositions visant à avancer sur la voie d’un nouveau mode de développement sont axées sur la promotion de l’égalité et de la pérennité de l’environnement. La création de biens publics mondiaux et leurs équivalents à l’échelle régionale, ainsi que l’application de politiques nationales sont au coeur d’une vision structuraliste qui est appelée à évoluer vers un keynésianisme mondial et une stratégie de développement centrée sur un élan majeur pour l’environnement.

Horizons 2030: Equality at the centre of sustainable development

The world is living a change of era. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals represent the international community’s response to the economic, distributive and environmental imbalances built up under the prevailing development pattern. This document, presented by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) to its member States at its thirty-sixth session, provides an analytical complement to the 2030 Agenda from a structuralist perspective and from the point of view of the Latin American and Caribbean countries. The proposals made here stem from the need to achieve progressive structural change in order to incorporate more knowledge into production, ensure social inclusion and combat the negative impacts of climate change. The reflections and proposals for advancing towards a new development pattern are geared to achieving equality and environmental sustainability. In these proposals, the creation of global and regional public goods and the corresponding domestic policies form the core for expanding the structuralist tradition towards a global Keynesianism and a development strategy centred around an environmental big push.

The sailboat island and the New Horizons trajectory

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Phase Structure of Radar Stratigraphic Horizons Within Antarctic Firn

We have recorded reflection profiles of firn through large areas of West Antarctica and part of the East Antarctic plateau using 400 MHz short-pulse radar. The locations show accumulation rates that vary from well above to well below the vertical radar resolution. Most reflection horizons have extensive lateral continuity, and are composed of distinctive wavelets with a consistent phase polarity sequence within their successive half-cycles. We modeled these waveforms, and conclude that they arise from thin, double layers of ice over hoar, which is consistent with the standard model of firn stratification. In addition, we conclude that ice/hoar layers are extensive throughout West Antarctica and also present (although more sparsely) beneath the Antarctic Plateau.