GOCE precise orbit determination for the entire Mission – challenges in the final mission phase

The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), ESA’s first Earth Explorer core mission, was launched on March 17, 2009 into a sunsynchronous dusk-dawn orbit and eventually re-entered into the Earth’s atmosphere on November 11, 2013. A precise science orbit (PSO) product was provided by the GOCE High-level Processing Facility (HPF) from the GPS high-low Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking (hl-SST) data from the beginning until the very last days of the mission. We recapitulate the PSO procedure and refer to the results achieved until the official end of the GOCE mission on October 21, 2013, where independent validations with Satellite Laser ranging (SLR) measurements confirmed a high quality of the PSO product of about 2 cm 1-D RMS. We then focus on the period after the official end of the mission, where orbits could still be determined thanks to the continuously running GPS receivers delivering high quality data until a few hours before the re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere. We address the challenges encountered for orbit determination during these last days and report on adaptions in the PSO procedure to also obtain good orbit results at the unprecedented low orbital altitudes below 224 km.

Stable isotope ratios and chemistry on corals from the Caribbean Sea

Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.

Age determination of sediment core MD99-2201

A marine sediment core from the leeward margin of Great Bahama Bank (GBB) was subjected to a multiproxy study. The aragonite dominated core MD992201 comprises the past 7230 years in a decadal time resolution and shows sedimentation rates of up to 13.8 m/kyr. Aragonite mass accumulation rates, age differences between planktonic foraminifera and aragonite sediments, and temperature distribution are used to deduce changes in aragonite production rates and paleocurrent strengths. Aragonite precipitation rates on GBB are controlled by exchange of carbonate ions and CO2 loss due to temperature-salinity conditions and biological activity, and these are dependent on the current strength. Paleocurrent strengths on GBB show high current velocities during the periods 6000-5100 years BP, 3500-2700 years BP, and 1600-700 years BP; lower current speeds existed during the time intervals 5100-3500 years BP, 2700-1600 years BP, and 700-100 years BP. Bahamian surface currents are directly linked to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation, and thus periods with high (low) current speeds are proposed to be phases of strong (weak) atmospheric circulation.

(Table 1) Ice flux, polynya area and sea-ice drift speed in the Kara Sea during winter (Jan-Apr) 1997-2001

The Shelf Seas of the Arctic are known for their large sea-ice production. This paper presents a comprehensive view of the Kara Sea sea-ice cover from high-resolution numerical modeling and space-borne microwave radiometry. As given by the latter the average polynya area in the Kara Sea takes a value of 21.2 × 10**3 km**2 ± 9.1 × 10**3 km**2 for winters (Jan.-Apr.) 1996/97 to 2000/01, being as high as 32.0 × 10**3 km**2 in 1999/2000 and below 12 × 10**3 km**2 in 1998/99. Day-to-day variations of the Kara Sea polynya area can be as high as 50 × 10**3 km**2. For the seasons 1996/97 to 2000/01 the modeled cumulative winter ice-volume flux out of the Kara Sea varied between 100 km**3/a and 350 km**3/a. Modeled high (low) ice export coincides with a high (low) average and cumulative polynya area, and with a low (high) sea-ice compactness in the Kara Sea from remote sensing data, and with a high (low) sea-ice drift speed across its northern boundary derived from independent model data for the winters 1996/97 to 2000/01.

Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.

Climatic evolution of eastern South America during the last deglaciation: a paleoceanographic approach

Para dar suporte ao atual debate sobre as consequências climáticas da liberação antropogênica de CO2 na atmosfera, o refinamento do conhecimento sobre mudanças climáticas e oceanográficas no passado é necessário. A Circulação de Revolvimento Meridional do Atlântico (CRMA) tem papel fundamental na oceanografia e clima das áreas sob influência do Oceano Atlântico, controlando diretamente a estratificação e distribuição de massas d\'água, a quantidade de calor transportada pelo oceano e os ciclo e armazenamento de compostos químicos, como o CO2 em mar profundo. A formação e circulação da Água Intermediária Antártica (AIA), envolvida no transporte de calor e sal para o giro subtropical do Hemisfério Sul e nas teleconexões climáticas entre altas e baixas latitudes, é componente importante do ramo superior da CRMA. A reconstrução de propriedades de massas de água intermediárias é, portanto, importante para a compreensão dos sistemas de retroalimentação entre oceano-clima. No entanto, informações quanto a evolução da AIA continuam limitadas. Oscilações da CRMA e consequentes mudanças na distribuição de calor tem implicações importantes para o clima Sul Americano, influenciando a disponibilidade de umidade para o Sistema de Monções Sul Americano (SMSA), via temperatura da superfície marinha e posicionamento da Zona de Convergência Intertropical. Neste trabalho nós reconstruímos a assinatura isotópica da AIA durante os estágios isotópicos marinhos 2 e 3 (41-12 cal ka AP) usando isótopos de carbono e oxigênio de foraminíferos bentônicos (gêneros Cibicidoides e Uvigerina) de um testemunho de sedimentos marinhos datados por radiocarbono (1100 m de profundidade e a 20°S na costa do Brasil). Concluímos que propriedades físicas e químicas da AIA mudaram durante os estadiais Heinrich 3 e 4, provavelmente como consequência de enfraquecimento da CRMA durante estes períodos. Também reconstruímos as condições continentais do leste brasileiro entre o último máximo glacial e a deglaciação (23-12 cal ka AP) baseadas em razões Ti/Ca de nosso testemunho de sedimentos marinhos como indicadoras de aporte terrígeno do Rio Doce. A maior parte da chuva que cai na Bacia do Rio Doce está relacionada a atividade do SMAS. Nosso registro de Ti/Ca em conjunto com \'\'delta\' POT.18\'O de espeleotemas da Caverna Lapa Sem Fim, também no leste do Brasil, sugere diminuição marcante da chuva durante o interestadial Bølling-Allerød, provavelmente relacionada a enfraquecimento do SMAS. Ademais comparamos as razões de Ti/Ca com dados de saída da rodada SYNTRACE do modelo climático CCSM3 com forçantes transientes para a última deglaciação. Os registros geoquímicos e a saída do modelo mostram resultados consistentes entre si e sugerem que o leste da América do Sul passou pelo seu período mais seco de toda a última deglaciação durante o interestadial Bølling-Allerød, provavelmente relacionado ao enfraquecimento do SMAS.

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.

Miller's modern acting drama, consisting of the most popular pieces produced at the London theatres, subject to the provisions of the Dramatic copyright act ...

Half-title: Modern acting drama.

The extravaganzas of J. R. Planché, esq., (Somerset herald) 1825-1871.

Imperfect: List of subscribers wanting.

Crossover evaluation of silicone hydrogel daily disposable contact lenses

PURPOSE: To assess the surface tear breakup time and clinical performance of three daily disposable silicone hydrogel contact lenses over 16 hours of wear. METHODS: Thirty-nine patients (mean [±SD] age, 22.1 [±3.5] years) bilaterally wore (narafilcon A, filcon II-3, and delefilcon A) contact lenses in a prospective, randomized, masked, 1-week crossover clinical trial. Tear film was assessed by the tear meniscus height (TMH), ocular/contact lens surface temperature dynamics, and lens surface noninvasive breakup time at 8, 12, and 16 hours of wear. Clinical performance and ocular physiology were assessed by subjective questionnaire, by high-/low-contrast logMAR (logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution) acuity, and through bulbar and limbal hyperemia grading. Corneal and conjunctival staining were assessed after lens removal. RESULTS: Delefilcon A demonstrated a longer noninvasive breakup time (13.4 [±4.4] seconds) than filcon II-3 (11.6 [±3.7] seconds; p < 0.001) and narafilcon A (12.3 [±3.7] seconds; p < 0.001). A greater TMH (0.35 [±0.11] mm) was shown by delefilcon A than filcon II-3 (0.32 [±0.10] seconds; p = 0.016). Delefilcon A showed less corneal staining after 16 hours of lens wear (0.7 [±0.6] Efron grade) than filcon II-3 (1.1 [±0.7]; p < 0.001) and narafilcon A (0.9 [±0.7]; p = 0.031). Time was not a significant factor for prelens tear film stability (F = 0.594, p = 0.555) or TMH (F = 0.632, p = 0.534). Lens brand did not affect temperature (F = 1.220, p = 0.308), but it decreased toward the end of the day (F = 19.497, p < 0.001). Comfort, quality of vision, visual acuity and contrast acuity, and limbal grading were similar between the lens brands but decreased with time during the day (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The tear breakup time over the contact lens surface differed between lens types and may have a role in protecting the ocular surface.

How much is corporate cash-pooling worth? Modelling and simulation

The paper analyzes a special corporate banking product, the so called cash-pool, which gained remarkable popularity in the recent years as firms try to centralize and manage their liquidity more efficiently. The novelty of this paper is the formalization of a valuation model which can serve as a basis for a Monte Carlo simulation to assess the most important benefits of the firms arising from the pooling of their cash holdings. The literature emphasizes several benefits of cash-pooling such as interest rate savings, economy of scale and reduced cash-flow volatility. The presented model focuses on the interest rate savings complemented with a new aspect: the reduced counterparty risk toward the bank. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the value of a cash-pool is higher in case of firms with large, diverse and volatile cash-flows having less access to the capital markets especially if the partner bank is risky and offers a high interest spread. It is also shown that cash-pooling is not the privilege of large multinational firms any more as the initial direct costs can be easily regained within a year even in the case of SMEs.

Psychological and cognitive factors that influence post -exercise energy intake in normal weight and overweight sedentary males

Physical activity is recommended to facilitate weight management. However, some individuals may be unable to successfully manage their weight due to certain psychological and cognitive factors that trigger them to compensate for calories expended in exercise. The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of moderate-intensity exercise on lunch and 12-hour post-exercise energy intake (PE-EI) in normal weight and overweight sedentary males. Perceived hunger, mood, carbohydrate intake from beverages, and accuracy in estimating energy intake (EI) and energy expenditure (EE) were also assessed. The study consisted of two conditions, exercise (treadmill walking) and rest (sitting), with each participant completing each condition, in a counterbalanced-crossover design on two days. Eighty males, mean age 30 years (SD=8) were categorized into five groups according to weight (normal-/overweight), dietary restraint level (high/low), and dieting status (yes/no). Results of repeated measures, 5x2 ANOVA indicated that the main effects of condition and group, and the interaction were not significant for lunch or 12-hour PE-EI. Among overweight participants, dieters consumed significantly (p<0.05) fewer calories than non-dieters at lunch (M=822 vs. M=1149) and over 12 hours (M=1858 vs. M =2497). Overall, participants’ estimated exercise EE was significantly (p<0.01) higher than actual exercise EE, and estimated resting EE was significantly (p<0.001) lower than actual resting EE. Participants significantly (p<0.001) underestimated EI at lunch on both experimental days. Perceived hunger was significantly (p<0.05) lower after exercise (M=49 mm, SEM=3) than after rest (M=57 mm, SEM=3). Mood scores and carbohydrate intake from beverages were not influenced by weight, dietary restraint, and dieting status. In conclusion, a single bout of moderate-intensity exercise did not influence PE-EI in sedentary males in reference to weight, dietary restraint, and dieting status, suggesting that this population may not be at risk for overeating in response to exercise. Therefore, exercise can be prescribed and used as an effective tool for weight management. Results also indicated that there was an inability to accurately estimate EI (ad libitum lunch meal) and EE (60 minutes of moderate-intensity exercise). Inaccuracies in the estimation of calories for EI and EE could have the potential to unfavorably impact weight management.

Psychological and Cognitive Factors that Influence Post-Exercise Energy Intake in Normal Weight and Overweight Sedentary Males

The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of a single bout of moderate-intensity exercise on acute (ad libitum lunch) post-exercise energy intake (PE-EI) and 12-hour energy intake in normal-weight and overweight sedentary males. Accuracy in estimating energy intake (EI) and energy expenditure (EE), solid vs. liquid carbohydrate intake, mood, and perceived hunger were also assessed. The study consisted of two conditions, exercise and rest, with each subject participating in each condition, in a counterbalanced-crossover design on two days. The participants were randomly assigned to either the exercise or resting (seated) control condition on the first day of the experiment, and then the condition was reversed on the second day. Exercise consisted of walking on a treadmill at moderate-intensity for 60 minutes. Eighty males, mean age 30+8 years were categorized into five groups according to weight status (overweight/normal-weight), dietary restraint status (high/low), and dieting status (yes/no). The main effects of condition and group, and the interaction were not significant for acute (lunch) or 12-hour PE-EI. Overall, participants estimated EE for exercise at 46% higher than actual exercise EE, and they estimated EE for rest by 45% lower than actual resting EE. Participants significantly underestimated EI at lunch on both the exercise and rest days by 43% and 44%, respectively. Participants with high restraint were significantly better at estimating EE on the exercise day, and better at estimating EI on the rest day. Mood, perceived hunger, and solid vs. liquid carbohydrate intake were not influenced by dietary restraint, weight, or dieting status. In conclusion, a single bout of moderate-intensity exercise did not influence PE-EI in sedentary males in reference to dietary restraint, weight, and dieting status. Results also suggested that among sedentary males, there is a general inability to accurately estimate calories for moderate-intensity physical activity and EI. Inaccurate estimates of EE and EI have the potential to influence how males manage their weight.

Hepatite C crônica em serviço de referência no nordeste do Brasil: um estudo retrospectivo de dezoito anos de acompanhamento

Chronic Hepatitis C is the leading cause of chronic liver disease in advanced final stage of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and of death related to liver disease. Evolves progressively in time 20-30 years. Evolutionary rates vary depending on factors virus, host and behavior. This study evaluated the impact of hepatitis C on the lives of patients treated at a referral service in Hepatology of the University Hospital Onofre Lopes - Liver Study Group - from May 1995 to December 2013. A retrospective evaluation was performed on 10,304 records, in order to build a cohort of patients with hepatitis C, in which all individuals had their diagnosis confirmed by gold standard molecular biological test. Data were obtained directly from patient charts and recorded in an Excel spreadsheet, previously built, following an elaborate encoding with the study variables, which constitute individual data and prognostic factors defined in the literature in the progression of chronic hepatitis C. The Research Ethics Committee approved the project. The results were statistically analyzed with the Chi-square test and Fisher's exact used to verify the association between variable for the multivariate analysis, we used the Binomial Logistic regression method. For both tests, it was assumed significance p < 0.05 and 95%. The results showed that the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in NEF was 4.96 %. The prevalence of cirrhosis due to hepatitis C was 13.7%. The prevalence of diabetes in patients with Hepatitis C was 8.78 % and diabetes in cirrhotic patients with hepatitis C 38.0 %. The prevalence of HCC was 5.45%. The clinical follow-up discontinuation rates were 67.5 %. The mortality in confirmed cases without cirrhosis was 4.10% and 32.1% in cirrhotic patients. The factors associated with the development of cirrhosis were genotype 1 (p = 0.0015) and bilirubin > 1.3 mg % (p = 0.0017). Factors associated with mortality were age over 35 years, abandon treatment, diabetes, insulin use, AST> 60 IU, ALT> 60 IU, high total bilirubin, extended TAP, INR high, low albumin, treatment withdrawal, cirrhosis and hepatocarcinoma. The occurrence of diabetes mellitus increased mortality of patients with hepatitis C in 6 times. Variables associated with the diagnosis of cirrhosis by us were blood donor (odds ratio 0.24, p = 0.044) and professional athlete (odds ratio 0.18, p = 0.35). It is reasonable to consider a revaluation in screening models for CHC currently proposed. The condition of cirrhosis and diabetes modifies the clinical course of patients with chronical hepatitis C, making it a disease more mortality. However, being a blood donor or professional athlete is a protective factor that reduces the risk of cirrhosis, independent of alcohol consumption. Public policies to better efficient access, hosting and resolution are needed for this population.

The Neural Basis of Involuntary Episodic Memories

Involuntary episodic memories are memories that come into consciousness without preceding retrieval effort. These memories are commonplace and are relevant to multiple mental disorders. However, they are vastly understudied. We use a novel paradigm to elicit involuntary memories in the laboratory so that we can study their neural basis. In session one, an encoding session, sounds are presented with picture pairs or alone. In session two, in the scanner, sounds-picture pairs and unpaired sounds are reencoded. Immediately following, participants are split into two groups: a voluntary and an involuntary group. Both groups perform a sound localization task in which they hear the sounds and indicate the side from which they are coming. The voluntary group additionally tries to remember the pictures that were paired with the sounds. Looking at neural activity, we find a main effect of condition (paired vs. unpaired sounds) showing similar activity in both groups for voluntary and involuntary memories in regions typically associated with retrieval. There is also a main effect of group (voluntary vs. involuntary) in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region typically associated with cognitive control. Turning to connectivity similarities and differences between groups again, there is a main effect of condition showing paired > unpaired sounds are associated with a recollection network. In addition, three group differences were found: (1) increased connectivity between the pulvinar nucleus of the thalamus and the recollection network for the voluntary group, (2) a higher association between the voluntary group and a network that includes regions typically found in frontoparietal and cingulo-opercular networks, and (3) shorter path length for about half of the nodes in these networks for the voluntary group. Finally, we use the same paradigm to compare involuntary memories in people with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) to trauma-controls. This study also included the addition of emotional pictures. There were two main findings. (1) A similar pattern of activity was found for paired > unpaired sounds for both groups but this activity was delayed in the PTSD group. (2) A similar pattern of activity was found for high > low emotion stimuli but it occurred early in the PTSD group compared to the control group. Our results suggest that involuntary and voluntary memories share the same neural representation but that voluntary memories are associated with additional cognitive control processes. They also suggest that disorders associated with cognitive deficits, like PTSD, can affect the processing of involuntary memories.