Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GMC

A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Abscisic acid and auxin accumulation in Catasetum fimbriatum roots growing in vitro with high sucrose and mannitol content

Endogenous contents of indolyl-3-acetic acid (IAA) and abscisic acid (ABA) were quantified in excised roots of Catasetum fimbriatum (Orchidaceae) cultured in vitro on solidified Vacin and Went medium with 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 % sucrose, as well as 2 % sucrose plus mannitol. Maximum root growth was observed in media with 4 % sucrose and 2 % sucrose plus 2.2 % mannitol, suggesting that a moderate water or osmotic stress promotes orchid root growth. Contents of both ABA and IAA increased in parallel to increasing sucrose concentration and a correlation between root elongation and the ABA/IAA ratio was observed. Incubating isolated C. fimbriatum roots with radiolabeled tryptophan, we showed an accumulation of IAA and its conjugates.

Conservation laws and tachyon potentials in the sliver frame

Conservation laws have provided an elegant and efficient tool to evaluate the open string field theory interaction vertex, they have been originally implemented in the case where the string field is expanded in the Virasoro basis. In this work we derive conservation laws in the case where the string field is expanded in the so-called sliver L(0)-basis. As an application of this new set of conservation laws, we compute the open string field action relevant to the tachyon condensation and in order to present not only an illustration but also an additional information, we evaluate the action without imposing a gauge choice.

Effects of a high fat diet on liver mitochondria: increased ATP-sensitive K(+) channel activity and reactive oxygen species generation

High fat diets are extensively associated with health complications within the spectrum of the metabolic syndrome. Some of the most prevalent of these pathologies, often observed early in the development of high-fat dietary complications, are non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases. Mitochondrial bioenergetics and redox state changes are also widely associated with alterations within the metabolic syndrome. We investigated the mitochondrial effects of a high fat diet leading to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in mice. We found that the diet does not substantially alter respiratory rates, ADP/O ratios or membrane potentials of isolated liver mitochondria. However, H(2)O(2) release using different substrates and ATP-sensitive K(+) transport activities are increased in mitochondria from animals on high fat diets. The increase in H(2)O(2) release rates was observed with different respiratory substrates and was not altered by modulators of mitochondrial ATP-sensitive K(+) channels, indicating it was not related to an observed increase in K(+) transport. Altogether, we demonstrate that mitochondria from animals with diet-induced steatosis do not present significant bioenergetic changes, but display altered ion transport and increased oxidant generation. This is the first evidence, to our knowledge, that ATP-sensitive K(+) transport in mitochondria can be modulated by diet.

Extended local labor markets due to high speed trains : Visualization of estimations in the Swedish national travel demand forecasting tool, SAMPERS

Wider economic benefits resulting from extended geographical mobility is one argument for investments in high-speed rail. More specifically, the argument for high-speed trains in Sweden has been that they can help to further spatially extend labor market regions which in turn has a positive effect on growth and development. In this paper the aim is to cartographically visualize the potential size of the labor markets in areas that could be affected by possible future high-speed trains. The visualization is based on the forecasts of labor mobility with public transport made by the Swedish national mobility transport forecasting tool, SAMPERS, for two alternative high-speed rail scenarios. The analysis, not surprisingly, suggests that the largest impact of high-speed trains results in the area where the future high speed rail tracks are planned to be built. This expected effect on local labor market regions of high-speed trains could mean that possible regional economic development effects also are to be expected in this area. However, the results, in general, from the SAMPERS forecasts indicaterelatively small increases in local labor market potentials.

High-resolution electrocardiography in dogs under doxorubicin-induced cardiomyopathy

Determinaram-se a ocorrência de potencial tardio em cães com cardiomiopatia induzida pela doxorrubicina e sua relação com o desenvolvimento de arritmias ventriculares ou morte súbita. Sete cães adultos, sem raça definida, de ambos os sexos foram utilizados. A cardiomiopatia foi induzida por infusão venosa lenta de doxorrubicina (30mg/m²) em intervalos de 21 dias, até uma dose total cumulativa de 240mg/m². Os animais foram monitorados ecocardiograficamente. Após a confirmação da cardiomiopatia, foi feito o registro da eletrocardiografia de alta resolução. Potenciais tardios foram observados em dois animais que morreram subitamente poucos dias após.

Effects of the high temperature plasma immersion ion implantation (PIII) of nitrogen in AISI H13 steel

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Screened potential and quarkonia properties at high temperatures

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Corrosion of the component phases presents in high copper dental amalgams. Application of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and electrochemical noise analysis

The corrosion resistance of three of the constituent phases in high copper dental amalgams has been investigated by electrochemical methods in 0.9% NaCl solution. Polarization curves show corrosion potentials most positive for gamma(1)-Ag2Hg3, followed by Ag-Cu, and gamma-Ag3Sn in agreement with the order of corrosion resistance deduced from the corrosion currents. Complex plane impedance plots at the open circuit potential showed distorted semicircles with diffusional components at low frequency for Ag-Hg and Ag-Cu, while for gamma-Ag3Sn a layer of corrosion products is formed, partially or completely covering the surface of the electrode. Impedance and noise spectra have been compared in the frequency domain, and show good agreement. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using an effective surface charge to explain surface potentials of Langmuir monolayers from dialkyldimethylammonium halides with the Gouy-Chapman theory

The use of an effective surface charge density has allowed the Gouy-Chapman (CC) theory to explain surface potential isotherms of Langmuir monolayers of dioctadecyldimethylammonium bromide (DODAB). The effective surface charge density of DODAB monolayer increases with the electronegativity of the counterions in the subphase. The pressure-area isotherms indicate a very condensed monolayer for DODAB spread on an I--containing subphase, which exhibits the lowest surface charge density, whereas the monolayer on a F-containing subphase is extremely expanded owing to the high surface charge density or electrostatic repulsion between headgroups. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier B.V. B.V.

Fine tuning in quintessence models with exponential potentials

We explore regions of parameter space in a simple exponential model of the form V = V0 e-λ(Q/Mp) that are allowed by observational constraints. We find that the level of fine tuning in these models is not different from more sophisticated models of dark energy. We study a transient regime where the parameter λ has to be less than √3 and the fixed point ΩQ = 1 has not been reached. All values of the parameter λ that lead to this transient regime are permitted. We also point out that this model can accelerate the universe today even for λ > √2, leading to a halt of the present acceleration of the universe in the future thus avoiding the horizon problem. We conclude that this model can not be discarded by current observations. © SISSA/ISAS 2002.

What does the National High School Exam (enem) tell Brazilian society?

This article assesses the limitations and potentials of the National High School Exam (ENEM) as an indicator of school effectiveness in Brazil, and considers the effects of introducing contextual variables. A multilevel regression analysis was performed on three levels (individual, school and state) using microdata on 17,359 schools from 2009 and 2010. Contextual factors made it possible to explain 79% of the difference between schools. The raw average and value-added (random effect at the school level) produced contrasting evaluations in 34% of cases; and the average was more stable (r = 0.8) than value-added (r = 0.5) in both years. Various shortcomings in the ENEM as an indicator of school effectiveness were identified. The results show that this league table reveals more about socioeconomic conditions than the schools' own merit, in other words the value-added they are supposedly providing to the students.

Comparison of the reliability of multifocal visual evoked cortical potentials generated by pattern reversal and pattern pulse stimulation

This study compared the effectiveness of the multifocal visual evoked cortical potentials (mfVEP) elicited by pattern pulse stimulation with that of pattern reversal in producing reliable responses (signal-to-noise ratio >1.359). Participants were 14 healthy subjects. Visual stimulation was obtained using a 60-sector dartboard display consisting of 6 concentric rings presented in either pulse or reversal mode. Each sector, consisting of 16 checks at 99% Michelson contrast and 80 cd/m2 mean luminance, was controlled by a binary m-sequence in the time domain. The signal-to-noise ratio was generally larger in the pattern reversal than in the pattern pulse mode. The number of reliable responses was similar in the central sectors for the two stimulation modes. At the periphery, pattern reversal showed a larger number of reliable responses. Pattern pulse stimuli performed similarly to pattern reversal stimuli to generate reliable waveforms in R1 and R2. The advantage of using both protocols to study mfVEP responses is their complementarity: in some patients, reliable waveforms in specific sectors may be obtained with only one of the two methods. The joint analysis of pattern reversal and pattern pulse stimuli increased the rate of reliability for central sectors by 7.14% in R1, 5.35% in R2, 4.76% in R3, 3.57% in R4, 2.97% in R5, and 1.78% in R6. From R1 to R4 the reliability to generate mfVEPs was above 70% when using both protocols. Thus, for a very high reliability and thorough examination of visual performance, it is recommended to use both stimulation protocols.