Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Hybrid system simulation of computer control applications over communication networks

Discrete event-driven simulations of digital communication networks have been used widely. However, it is difficult to use a network simulator to simulate a hybrid system in which some objects are not discrete event-driven but are continuous time-driven. A networked control system (NCS) is such an application, in which physical process dynamics are continuous by nature. We have designed and implemented a hybrid simulation environment which effectively integrates models of continuous-time plant processes and discrete-event communication networks by extending the open source network simulator NS-2. To do this a synchronisation mechanism was developed to connect a continuous plant simulation with a discrete network simulation. Furthermore, for evaluating co-design approaches in an NCS environment, a piggybacking method was adopted to allow the control period to be adjusted during simulations. The effectiveness of the technique is demonstrated through case studies which simulate a networked control scenario in which the communication and control system properties are defined explicitly.

A genetic algorithm for the multi-source and multi-sink minimum vertex cut problem and its applications

We present a new penalty-based genetic algorithm for the multi-source and multi-sink minimum vertex cut problem, and illustrate the algorithm’s usefulness with two real-world applications. It is proved in this paper that the genetic algorithm always produces a feasible solution by exploiting some domain-specific knowledge. The genetic algorithm has been implemented on the example applications and evaluated to show how well it scales as the problem size increases.

Infrastructure project planning decision making : challenges for decision support system applications

Most infrastructure projects share the same characteristics in term of management aspects and shortcomings. Human factor is believed to be the major drawbacks due to the nature of unstructured problems which can further contribute to management conflicts. This growing complexity in infrastructure projects has shift the paradigm of policy makers to adopt Information Communication Technology (ICT) as a driving force. For this reason, it is vital to fully maximise and utilise the recent technologies to accelerate management process particularly in planning phase. Therefore, a lot of tools have been developed to assist decision making in construction project management. The variety of uncertainties and alternatives in decision making can be entertained by using useful tool such as Decision Support System (DSS). However, the recent trend shows that most DSS in this area only concentrated in model development and left few fundamentals of computing. Thus, most of them were found complicated and less efficient to support decision making within project team members. Due to the current incapability of many software aspects, it is desirable for DSS to provide more simplicity, better collaborative platform, efficient data manipulation and reflection to user needs. By considering these factors, the paper illustrates four challenges for future DSS development i.e. requirement engineering, communication framework, data management and interoperability, and software usability

Every player wins a prize? Family provision applications and bequests to charity

This research deals with the interaction of family provision law and charitable bequests in wills, including qualitative research relating to the practical issues arising with both legal practitioners and charities’ bequest officers.

Departing from the virtual community : a discussion of the ways and means to uncover localised order in online games

This paper is part one of a three part study into the collective regulation processes of players in massive multiplayer online games (MMOG). Traditionally game playing has not been classed as problematic, however with introduction of new media technologies and new ways to play games, certain contexts have become obscure, namely the localised order of ‘playing online’ or how players manage and maintain order between each other as opposed to ‘following the rules’. Principally this paper will examine concepts of ‘virtual community’. These will be illustrated as particularly unhelpful when considering how people conduct themselves in these spaces. Thus, ‘virtual community’ will be seen as critical in implicating various online behaviours as superior to other online behaviours causing obscurity and blurring actions. This obscurity is grounded by strong associations in the virtual community as logic of practise in and of itself; behaviours that fall outside this category become common sense and as such are made invisible for investigation. This paper will draw upon the theories of Basil Bernstein and Pierre Bourdieu to produce a distinction between online behaviours and ultimately make them visible for further investigation. In doing so this paper seeks to form a basis for future research where interaction in these spaces can be identified as belonging to a certain framework to inform the design of online games and applications more effectively.

Dynamic Lock Synchronisation for collaborative 3D applications

In a typical collaborative application, users contends for common resources by mutual exclusion. The introduction of multi-modal environment, however, introduced problems such as frequent dropping of connection or limited connectivity speed of mobile users. This paper target 3D resources which require additional considerations such as dependency of users' manipulation command. This paper introduces Dynamic Locking Synchronisation technique to enable seamless and collaborative environment for large number of user, by combining the contention-free concepts of locking mechanism and the seamless nature of lockless design.

Multi-edge decimation in multi-modal 3D collaborative applications

Multi-resolution modelling has become essential as modern 3D applications demand 3D objects with higher LODs (LOD). Multi-modal devices such as PDAs and UMPCs do not have sufficient resources to handle the original 3D objects. The increased usage of collaborative applications has created many challenges for remote manipulation working with 3D objects of different quality. This paper studies how we can improve multi-resolution techniques by performing multiedge decimation and using annotative commands. It also investigates how devices with poorer quality 3D object can participate in collaborative actions.

The Explicit Hazard Model – Part 2 : Applications

Hazard and reliability prediction of an engineering asset is one of the significant fields of research in Engineering Asset Health Management (EAHM). In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset can be influenced and/or indicated by different factors that are termed as covariates. The Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) as a covariate-based hazard model is a new approach for hazard prediction which explicitly incorporates both internal and external covariates into one model. EHM is an appropriate model to use in the analysis of lifetime data in presence of both internal and external covariates in the reliability field. This paper presents applications of the methodology which is introduced and illustrated in the theory part of this study. In this paper, the semi-parametric EHM is applied to a case study so as to predict the hazard and reliability of resistance elements on a Resistance Corrosion Sensor Board (RCSB).

Social networking : investigating the features of Facebook application

Research on social networking sites like Facebook is emerging but sparse. The exploratory study investigates the value users derive from self-described ‘cool’ Facebook applications, and explores the features that either encourage or discourage users to recommend application to their friends. Thus the concepts of value and cool are explored in a social networking setting. Our qualitative data shows that consumers derive a combination of functional value along with either social or emotional value from the applications. Female Facebook users indicated self-expression as important, while mates then to use Facebook application to socially compete. Three broad categories emerged for application features; symmetrical features can both encourage or discourage recommendation, asymmetrical features one encourage or discourage but not both, and polar features where different levels of the same feature encourage or discourage. Recommending or not recommending an application tends to be the result of a combination of features rather than one feature in isolation.

Planning for smart urban ecosystems : information technology applications for capacity building in environmental decision making

Since the industrial revolution, our world has experienced rapid and unplanned industrialization and urbanization. As a result, we have had to cope with serious environmental challenges. In this context, an explanation of how smart urban ecosystems can emerge, gains a crucial importance. Capacity building and community involvement have always been key issues in achieving sustainable development and enhancing urban ecosystems. By considering these, this paper looks at new approaches to increase public awareness of environmental decision making. This paper will discuss the role of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), particularly Webbased Geographic Information Systems (Web-based GIS) as spatial decision support systems to aid public participatory environmental decision making. The paper also explores the potential and constraints of these webbased tools for collaborative decision making.

Krylov subspace methods for approximating functions of symmetric positive definite matrices with applications to applied statistics and anomalous diffusion

Matrix function approximation is a current focus of worldwide interest and finds application in a variety of areas of applied mathematics and statistics. In this thesis we focus on the approximation of A^(-α/2)b, where A ∈ ℝ^(n×n) is a large, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix and b ∈ ℝ^n is a vector. In particular, we will focus on matrix function techniques for sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields in applied statistics and the solution of fractional-in-space partial differential equations. Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are multivariate normal random variables characterised by a sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrix. GMRFs are popular models in computational spatial statistics as the sparse structure can be exploited, typically through the use of the sparse Cholesky decomposition, to construct fast sampling methods. It is well known, however, that for sufficiently large problems, iterative methods for solving linear systems outperform direct methods. Fractional-in-space partial differential equations arise in models of processes undergoing anomalous diffusion. Unfortunately, as the fractional Laplacian is a non-local operator, numerical methods based on the direct discretisation of these equations typically requires the solution of dense linear systems, which is impractical for fine discretisations. In this thesis, novel applications of Krylov subspace approximations to matrix functions for both of these problems are investigated. Matrix functions arise when sampling from a GMRF by noting that the Cholesky decomposition A = LL^T is, essentially, a `square root' of the precision matrix A. Therefore, we can replace the usual sampling method, which forms x = L^(-T)z, with x = A^(-1/2)z, where z is a vector of independent and identically distributed standard normal random variables. Similarly, the matrix transfer technique can be used to build solutions to the fractional Poisson equation of the form ϕn = A^(-α/2)b, where A is the finite difference approximation to the Laplacian. Hence both applications require the approximation of f(A)b, where f(t) = t^(-α/2) and A is sparse. In this thesis we will compare the Lanczos approximation, the shift-and-invert Lanczos approximation, the extended Krylov subspace method, rational approximations and the restarted Lanczos approximation for approximating matrix functions of this form. A number of new and novel results are presented in this thesis. Firstly, we prove the convergence of the matrix transfer technique for the solution of the fractional Poisson equation and we give conditions by which the finite difference discretisation can be replaced by other methods for discretising the Laplacian. We then investigate a number of methods for approximating matrix functions of the form A^(-α/2)b and investigate stopping criteria for these methods. In particular, we derive a new method for restarting the Lanczos approximation to f(A)b. We then apply these techniques to the problem of sampling from a GMRF and construct a full suite of methods for sampling conditioned on linear constraints and approximating the likelihood. Finally, we consider the problem of sampling from a generalised Matern random field, which combines our techniques for solving fractional-in-space partial differential equations with our method for sampling from GMRFs.

Understanding Shared Services : an exploration of the IS literature

In a competitive environment, companies continuously innovate to offer superior services at lower costs. ‘Shared services’ have been extensively adopted in practice as one means for improving organisational performance. Shared services is considered most appropriate for support functions, and is widely adopted in Human Resource Management, Finance and Accounting; more recently being employed across the Information Systems function. IS applications and infrastructure are an important enabler and driver of shared services in all functional areas. As computer based corporate information systems have become de facto and the internet pervasive and increasingly the backbone of administrative systems, the technical impediments to sharing have come down dramatically. As this trend continues, CIOs and IT professionals will need a deeper understanding of the shared services phenomenon and its implications. The advent of shared services has consequential implications for the IS academic discipline. Yet, archival analysis of IS the academic literature reveals that shared services, though mentioned in more than 100 articles, has received little in depth attention. This paper is the first attempt to investigate and report on the current status of shared services in the IS literature. The paper presents detailed review of literature from main IS journals and conferences, findings evidencing a lack of focus and definitions and objectives lacking conceptual rigour. The paper concludes with a tentative operational definition, a list of perceived main objectives of shared services, and an agenda for related future research.

Microstructural characterization of electron beam evaporated tungsten oxide films for gas sensing applications

Tungsten trioxide is one of the potential semiconducting materials used for sensing NH3, CO, CH4 and acetaldehyde gases. The current research aims at development, microstructural characterization and gas sensing properties of thin films of Tungsten trioxide (WO3). In this paper, we intend to present the microstructural characterization of these films as a function of post annealing heat treatment. Microstructural and elemental analysis of electron beam evaporated WO3 thin films and iron doped WO3 films (WO3:Fe) have been carried out using analytical techniques such as Transmission electron microscopy, Rutherford Backscattered Spectroscopy and XPS analysis. TEM analysis revealed that annealing at 300oC for 1 hour improves cyrstallinity of WO3 film. Both WO3 and WO3:Fe films had uniform thickness and the values corresponded to those measured during deposition. RBS results show a fairly high concentration of oxygen at the film surface as well as in the bulk for both films, which might be due to adsorption of oxygen from atmosphere or lattice oxygen vacancy inherent in WO3 structure. XPS results indicate that tungsten exists in 4d electronic state on the surface but at a depth of 10 nm, both 4d and 4f electronic states were observed. Atomic force microscopy reveals nanosize particles and porous structure of the film. This study shows e-beam evaporation technique produces nanoaparticles and porous WO3 films suitable for gas sensing applications and doping with iron decreases the porosity and particle size which can help improve the gas selectivity.