The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.

Deposition History of Polychlorinated Biphenyls to the Lomonosovfonna Glacier, Svalbard: A 209 Congener Analysis

A 37 m deep ice core representing 1957–2009 and snow from 2009 to 2010 were collected on the Lomonosovfonna glacier, Svalbard (78.82° N; 17.43° E) and analyzed for 209 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners using high-resolution mass spectrometry. Congener profiles in all samples showed the prevalence of tetra- and pentachlorobiphenyls, dominated in all samples by PCB-44, PCB-52, PCB-70 + PCB-74, PCB-87 + PCB-97, PCB-95, PCB-99, PCB-101, and PCB-110. The ∑PCB flux varied over time, but the peak flux, 19 pg cm–2 year–1 from 1957 to 1966, recurred in 1974–1983, 1998–2009, and 2009–2010. The minimum was 5.75 pg cm–2 year–1 in 1989–1998, following a 15 year decline. Peak ∑PCB fluxes here are lower than measured in the Canadian Arctic. The analysis of all 209 congeners revealed that PCB-11 (3,3′-dichlorobiphenyl) was present in all samples, representing 0.9–4.5% of ∑PCB. PCB-11 was not produced in a commercial PCB product, and its source to the Arctic has not been well-characterized; however, our results confirm that the sources to Lomonosovfonna have been active since 1957. The higher fluxes of ∑PCB correspond to periods when average 5 day air mass back trajectories have a frequency of 8–10% and reach 60° N or beyond over northern Europe and western Russia or the North Sea into the U.K

Net accumulation rates derived from ice core stable isotope records of Pío XI glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield

Pío XI, the largest glacier of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, reached its neoglacial maximum extent in 1994 and is one of the few glaciers in that area which is not retreating. In view of the recent warming it is important to understand glacier responses to climate changes. Due to its remoteness and the harsh conditions in Patagonia, no systematic mass balance studies have been performed. In this study we derived net accumulation rates for the period 2000–2006 from a 50 m (33.2 4 m weq) ice core collected in the accumulation area of Pío XI (2600 m a.s.l., 49°16'40"S, 73°21'14"W). Borehole temperatures indicate near temperate ice, but the average melt percent is only 16 ± 14%. Records of stable isotopes are well preserved and were used for identification of annual layers. Net accumulation rates range from 3.4–7.1 water equivalent (m weq) with an average of 5.8 m weq, comparable to precipitation amounts at the Chilean coast, but not as high as expected for the Icefield. Ice core stable isotope data correlate well with upper air temperatures and may be used as temperature proxy.

Glacier response to the change in atmospheric circulation in the eastern Mediterranean during the Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, we document glacial deposits and reconstruct the glacial history in the Karagöl valley system in the eastern Uludağ in northwestern Turkey based on 42 cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages from boulders and bedrock. Our results suggest the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) advance prior to 20.4 ± 1.2 ka and at least three re-advances until 18.6 ± 1.2 ka during the global LGM within Marine Isotope Stage-2. In addition, two older advances of unknown age are geomorphologically well constrained, but not dated due to the absence of suitable boulders. Glaciers advanced again two times during the Lateglacial. The older is exposure dated to not later than 15.9 ± 1.1 ka and the younger is attributed to the Younger Dryas (YD) based on field evidence. The timing of the glaciations in the Karagöl valley correlates well with documented archives in the Anatolian and Mediterranean mountains and the Alps. These glacier fluctuations may be explained by the change in the atmospheric circulation pattern during the different phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter indices.

C-14 Measurements of Ice Samples from the Juvfonne Ice Tunnel, Jotunheimen, Southern Norway-Validation of a C-14 Dating Technique for Glacier Ice

Establishing precise age-depth relationships of high-alpine ice cores is essential in order to deduce conclusive paleoclimatic information from these archives. Radiocarbon dating of carbonaceous aerosol particles incorporated in such glaciers is a promising tool to gain absolute ages, especially from the deepest parts where conventional methods are commonly inapplicable. In this study, we present a new validation for a published C-14 dating method for ice cores. Previously C-14-dated horizons of organic material from the Juvfonne ice patch in central southern Norway (61.676 degrees N, 8.354 degrees E) were used as reference dates for adjacent ice layers, which were C-14 dated based on their particulate organic carbon (POC) fraction. Multiple measurements were carried out on 3 sampling locations within the ice patch featuring modern to multimillennial ice. The ages obtained from the analyzed samples were in agreement with the given age estimates. In addition to previous validation work, this independent verification gives further confidence that the investigated method provides the actual age of the ice.

Sudden Increase in Tidal Response Linked to Calving and Acceleration at a Large Greenland Outlet Glacier

Large calving events at Greenland's largest outlet glaciers are associated with glacial earthquakes and near instantaneous increases in glacier flow speed. At some glaciers and ice streams, flow is also modulated in a regular way by ocean tidal forcing at the terminus. At Helheim Glacier, analysis of geodetic data shows decimeter-level periodic position variations in response to tidal forcing. However, we also observe transient increases of more than 100% in the glacier's responsiveness to such tidal forcing following glacial-earthquake calving events. The timing and amplitude of the changes correlate strongly with the step-like increases in glacier speed and longitudinal strain rate associated with glacial earthquakes. The enhanced response to the ocean tides may be explained by a temporary disruption of the subglacial drainage system and a concomitant reduction of the friction at the ice-bedrock interface, and suggests a new means by which geodetic data may be used to infer glacier properties. Citation: de Juan, J., et al. (2010), Sudden increase in tidal response linked to calving and acceleration at a large Greenland outlet glacier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L12501, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043289.

Stable-Isotope and Trace Element Time Series from Fedchenko Glacier (Pamirs) Snow/Firn Cores

In summer 2005, two pilot snow/firn cores were obtained at 5365 and 5206 m a.s.l. on Fedchenko glacier, Pamirs, Tajikistan, the world's longest and deepest alpine glacier. The well-defined seasonal layering appearing in stable-isotope and trace element distribution identified the physical links controlling the climate and aerosol concentration signals. Air temperature and humidity/precipitation were the primary determinants of stable-isotope ratios. Most precipitation over the Pamirs originated in the Atlantic. In summer, water vapor was re-evaporated from semi-arid regions in central Eurasia. The semi-arid regions contribute to non-soluble aerosol loading in snow accumulated on Fedchenko glacier. In the Pamir core, concentrations of rare earth elements, major and other elements were less than those in the Tien Shan but greater than those in Antarctica, Greenland, the Alps and the Altai. The content of heavy metals in the Fedchenko cores is 2-14 times lower than in the Altai glaciers. Loess from Afghan-Tajik deposits is the predominant lithogenic material transported to the Pamirs. Trace elements generally showed that aerosol concentration tended to increase on the windward slopes during dust storms but tended to decrease with altitude under clear conditions. The trace element profile documented one of the most severe droughts in the 20th century.

Fracture and Back Stress Along the Byrd Glacier Flowband on the Ross Ice Shelf

East Antarctic ice discharged by Byrd Glacier continues as a flowband to the calving front of the Ross Ice Shelf. Flow across the grounding line changes from compressive to extensive as it leaves the fjord through the Transantarctic Mountains occupied by Byrd Glacier. Magnitudes of the longitudinal compressive stress that suppress opening of transverse tensile cracks are calculated for the flowband. As compressive back stresses diminish, initial depths and subsequent growth of these cracks, and their spacing, are calculated using theories of elastic and ductile fracture mechanics. Cracks are initially about one millimeter wide, with approximately 30 in depths and 20 in spacings for a back stress of 83 kPa at a distance of 50 kin beyond the fjord, where floating ice is 600 in thick. When these crevasses penetrate the whole ice thickness, they release tabular icebergs 20 kin to 100 kin wide, spaced parallel to the calving front of the Ross Ice Shelf

Ice-Bed Coupling Beneath and Beyond Ice Streams: Byrd Glacier, Antarctica

Ice sheet thickness is determined mainly by the strength of ice-bed coupling that controls holistic transitions from slow sheet flow to fast streamflow to buttressing shelf flow. Byrd Glacier has the largest ice drainage system in Antarctica and is the fastest ice stream entering Ross Ice Shelf. In 2004 two large subglacial lakes at the head of Byrd Glacier suddenly drained and increased the terminal ice velocity of Byrd Glacier from 820 m yr(-1) to 900 m yr(-1). This resulted in partial ice-bed recoupling above the lakes and partial decoupling along Byrd Glacier. An attempt to quantify this behavior is made using flowband and flowline models in which the controlling variable for ice height above the bed is the floating fraction phi of ice along the flowband and flowline. Changes in phi before and after drainage are obtained from available data, but more reliable data in the map plane are required before Byrd Glacier can be modeled adequately. A holistic sliding velocity is derived that depends on phi, with contributions from ice shearing over coupled beds and ice stretching over uncoupled beds, as is done in state-of-the-art sliding theories.

Step-Wise Changes in Glacier Flow Speed Coincide With Calving and Glacial Earthquakes at Helheim Glacier, Greenland

Geodetic observations show several large, sudden increases in flow speed at Helheim Glacier, one of Greenland's largest outlet glaciers, during summer, 2007. These step-like accelerations, detected along the length of the glacier, coincide with teleseismically detected glacial earthquakes and major iceberg calving events. No coseismic offset in the position of the glacier surface is observed; instead, modest tsunamis associated with the glacial earthquakes implicate glacier calving in the seismogenic process. Our results link changes in glacier velocity directly to calving-front behavior at Greenland's largest outlet glaciers, on timescales as short as minutes to hours, and clarify the mechanism by which glacial earthquakes occur. Citation: Nettles, M., et al. (2008), Step-wise changes in glacier flow speed coincide with calving and glacial earthquakes at Helheim Glacier, Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L24503, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036127.

Oxygen Isotopic and Soluble Ionic Composition of a Shallow Firn Core, Inilchek Glacier, Central Tien Shan

Oxygen isotopic and soluble ionic measurements made on snow-pit (2 in depth) and firn-core (12.4 m depth samples recovered from the accumulation zone 5100 m) of Inilchek glacier 43degrees N, 79degrees E) provide information on recent (1992-98) climatic and environmental conditions in the central Tien Shan region of central Asia. The combined 14.4 m snow-pit/firn-core profile lies within the firn zone, arid contains only one observed melt feature (10 m temperature = - 12 degreesC), Although some post-depositional attenuation of the sub-seasonal delta(18)O record is possible, annual cycles are apparent throughout the isotope profile. We therefore use the preserved delta(18)O record to establish a depth/age scale for the core. Mean delta(18)O values for the entire core and for summer periods are consistent with delta(18)O/temperature observations, and suggest the delta(18)O record provides a means to reconstruct past changes in summer surface temperature at the site. Major-ion (Na(+), K(+), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), NH(4)(+), Cl(-), NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-)) data from the core demonstrate the dominant influence of dust deposition on the soluble chemistry at the site, arid indicate significant interannual variability in atmospheric-dust loading during the 1900s. Anthropogenic impacts oil NH(4)(+) concentrations are observed at the site, and suggest a summer increase in atmospheric NH(4)(+) that may be related to regional agricultural (nitrogen-rich fertilizer use activities.

Surface "Waves" on Byrd Glacier, Antarctica

Byrd Glacier has one of the largest ice catchment areas in Antarctica, delivers more ice to the Ross Ice Shelf than any other ice stream, and is the fastest of these ice streams. A force balance, combined with a mass balance, demonstrates that stream flow in Byrd Glacier is transitional from sheet flow in East Antarctica to shelf flow in the Ross Ice Shelf. The longitudinal pulling stress, calculated along an ice flowband from the force balance, is linked to variations of ice thickness, to the ratio of the basal water pressure to the ice overburden pressure where Byrd Glacier is grounded, and is reduced by an ice-shelf buttressing stress where Byrd Glacier is floating. Longitudinal tension peaks at pressure-ratio maxima in grounded ice and close to minima in the ratio of the pulling stress to the buttressing stress in floating ice. The longitudinal spacing of these tension peaks is rather uniform and, for grounded ice, the peaks occur at maxima in surface slope that have no clear relation to the bed slope. This implies that the maxima in surface slope constitute a "wave train" that is related to regular variations in ice-bed coupling, not primarily to bed topography. It is unclear whether these surface "waves" are "standing waves" or are migrating either upslope or downslope, possibly causing the grounding line to either retreat or advance. Deciding which is the case will require obtaining bed topography in the map plane, a new map of surface topography, and more sophisticated modeling that includes ice flow linked to subglacial hydrology in the map plane.

Basal Melting Along the Floating Part of Byrd Glacier

A mass balance calculation was made for the floating part of Byrd Glacier, using 1978-79 ice elevation and velocity data, over the 45 km of Byrd Glacier from its grounding line to where it leaves its fjord and merges with the Ross Ice Shelf. Smoothed basal melting rates were relatively uniform over this distance and averaged 12 +/- 2 m yr(-1).