Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures

Uplands around the world are facing significant social, economic and environmental changes, and decision-makers need to better understand what the future may hold if they are to adapt and maintain upland goods and services. This paper draws together all major research comprising eight studies that have used scenarios to describe possible futures for UK uplands. The paper evaluates which scenarios are perceived by stakeholders to be most likely and desirable, and assesses the benefits and drawbacks of the scenario methods used in UK uplands to date. Stakeholders agreed that the most desirable and likely scenario would be a continuation of hill farming (albeit at reduced levels) based on cross-compliance with environmental measures. The least desirable scenario is a withdrawal of government financial support for hill farming. Although this was deemed by stakeholders to be the least likely scenario, the loss of government support warrants close attention due to its potential implications for the local economy. Stakeholders noted that the environmental implications of this scenario are much less clear-cut. As such, there is an urgent need to understand the full implications of this scenario, so that upland stakeholders can adequately prepare, and policy-makers can better evaluate the likely implications of different policy options. The paper concludes that in future, upland scenario research needs to: (1) better integrate in-depth and representative participation from stakeholders during both scenario development and evaluation; and (2) make more effective use of visualisation techniques and simulation models. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The futures of construction: A critical review of construction future studies

Anticipating the future is increasingly being seen as a useful way to align, direct and improve current organizational strategy. Several such 'future studies' have been produced which envision various construction industry scenarios which result from technological and socio-economic trends and influences. Thirteen construction-related future studies are critically reviewed. Most studies fail to address the complexities and uncertainties of both the present and the future, and fail to explore the connections between global, local, construction-specific and more widespread factors. The methodological approaches used in these studies do not generate any significantly different advice or recommendations for the industry than those emerging from the much larger canon of non-future oriented construction research. As such, these reports are less about the future than the present. If future studies are to make a worthwhile contribution to construction, it is critical that they develop our appreciation of the practical ability of stakeholders to influence some aspects of the future and not others, and an awareness of the competing agendas and the relative benefits and disadvantages of specific futures within the construction sector. Only then can future studies provide insights and help in preparing for the opportunities and threats the future may bring.

City futures: exploring urban retrofit and sustainable transitions

Cities are responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption. By 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city-regions (i.e. the city and its wider hinterland) to re-engineer systemically their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. To inform transitions to urban sustainability, key stakeholders' perceptions were sought though a participatory backcasting and scenario foresight process in order to illuminate challenging but realistic socio-technical scenarios for the systemic retrofit of core UK city-regions. The challenge of conceptualizing complex urban transitions is explored across multiple socio-technical ‘regimes’ (housing, non-domestic buildings, urban infrastructure), scales (building, neighbourhood, city-region), and domains (energy, water, use of resources) within a participatory process. The development of three archetypal ‘guiding visions’ of retrofit city-regional futures developed through this process are discussed, along with the contribution that such foresight processes might play in ‘opening up’ the governance and strategic navigation of urban sustainability.

Education and training futures in horticulture and horticultural science

Horticultural knowledge and skills training have been with humankind for some 10,000 to 20,000 years. With permanent settlement and rising wealth and trade, horticulture products and services became a source of fresh food for daily consumption, and a source of plant material in developing a quality environment and lifestyle. The knowledge of horticulture and the skills of its practitioners have been demonstrated through the advancing civilizations in both eastern and western countries. With the rise of the Agricultural Revolutions in Great Britain, and more widely across Continental Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries, as well as the move towards colonisation and early migration to the New Worlds, many westernised countries established the early institutions that would provide education and training in agriculture and horticulture. Today many of these colleges and universities provide undergraduate, postgraduate and vocational and technical training that specifically targets horticulture and/or horticultural science with some research and teaching institutions also providing extension and advisory services to industry. The objective of this chapter is to describe the wider pedagogic and educational context in which those concerned with horticulture operate, the institutional structures that target horticulture and horticultural science education and training internationally; examine changing educational formats, especially distance education; and consider strategies for attracting and retaining young people in the delivery of world-class horticultural education. In this chapter we set the context by investigating the horticultural education and training options available, the constraints that prevent young people entering horticulture, and suggest strategies that would attract and retain these students. We suggest that effective strategies and partnerships be put in place by the institution, the government and most importantly the industry to provide for undergraduate and postgraduate education in horticulture and horticultural science; that educational and vocational training institutions, government, and industry need to work more effectively together to improve communication about horticulture and horticultural science in order to attract enrolments of more and talented students; and that the horticulture curriculum be continuously evaluated and revised so that it remains relevant to future challenges facing the industries of horticulture in the production, environmental and social spheres. These strategies can be used as a means to develop successful programs and case studies that would provide better information to high school career counsellors, improve the image of horticulture and encourage greater involvement from alumni and the industries in recruitment, provide opportunities to improve career aspirations, ensure improved levels of remuneration, and promote the social features of the profession and greater awareness and recognition of the profession in the wider community. A successful career in horticulture demands intellectual capacities which are capable of drawing knowledge from a wide field of basic sciences, economics and the humanities and integrating this into academic scholarship and practical technologies.

RP94-217 No. 18 Use of Crop Futures and Options by the Nontrader

Crop producers make a number of decisions that are market related. They may be categorized as financial decisions, production decisions, or marketing decisions. All three decisions depend on what prices are likely to be at some specific time in the future. The marketing decisions is complex. This research publication discusses the number of alternatives that are available even for the producer who does not directly buy or sell futures or options contracts.

Live Cattle Futures and Options: How Have They Done?

Futures did reduce price risk. Hedging produced a higher minimum return and higher return at the 25th percentile (75% of the returns are better than this figure) than did the cash market. The 50th percentile, or median return, was higher for yearlings in the cash market than hedged cattle, and the calves had mixed results. Although the differences are not great, there have been months when the option strategies performed better than cash or futures, (i.e., January–April and September–October), and there are months when they did not fare well (i.e., June–August).

Volatility spillovers for spot, futures, and ETF prices in energy and agriculture

The agricultural and energy industries are closely related, both biologically and financially. The paper discusses the relationship and the interactions on price and volatility, with special focus on the covolatility spillover effects for these two industries. The interaction and covolatility spillovers or the delayed effect of a returns shock in one asset on the subsequent volatility or covolatility in another asset, between the energy and agricultural industries is the primary emphasis of the paper. Although there has already been significant research on biofuel and biofuel-related crops, much of the previous research has sought to find a relationship among commodity prices. Only a few published papers have been concerned with volatility spillovers. However, it must be emphasized that there have been numerous technical errors in the theoretical and empirical research, which needs to be corrected. The paper not only considers futures prices as a widely-used hedging instrument, but also takes an interesting new hedging instrument, ETF, into account. ETF is regarded as index futures when investors manage their portfolios, so it is possible to calculate an optimal dynamic hedging ratio. This is a very useful and interesting application for the estimation and testing of volatility spillovers. In the empirical analysis, multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK models are estimated for comparing patterns of covolatility spillovers. The paper provides a new way of analyzing and describing the patterns of covolatility spillovers, which should be useful for the future empirical analysis of estimating and testing covolatility spillover effects.

A handbook on scrap futures markets and futures trading /

Mode of access: Internet.

Nominations of James M. Stone to be a member and chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [microform] : hearing before the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, United States Senate, Ninety-sixth Congress, first session ... April 4, 1979.

Reuse of record except for individual research requires license from Congressional Information Service, Inc.

Family Futures Planning : training, support, and advocacy program for adults with developmental disabilities and their families : family member's manual /

"Funded by: Illinois Council on Developmental Disabilities, Chicago Association for Retarded Citizens, Rehabilitation Research Training Center on Aging and Developmental Disabilities (National Institute on Disability and Rehabilitation Research Grant #H133B980046) in the Department of Disability and Human Development at the University of Illinois at Chicago."

Negotiating regional futures:the successes and failures of the West Midlands Regional Development Agency Network

The introduction of Regional Development Agencies (RDAs) in the English regions in 1999 presented a new set of collaborative challenges to existing local institutions. The key objectives of the new policy impetus emphasise increased joined-up thinking and holistic regional governance. Partners were enjoined to promote cross-sector collaboration and present a coherent regional voice. This study aims to evaluate the impact of an RDA on the partnership infrastructure of the West Midlands. The RDA network incorporates a wide spectrum of interest and organisations with diverse collaborative histories, competencies and capacities. The study has followed partners through the process over an eighteen-month period and has sought to explore the complexities and tensions of partnership working 'on the ground'. A strong qualitative methodology has been employed in generating 'thick descriptions' of the policy domain. The research has probed beyond the 'rhetoric' of partnerships and explores the sensitivities of the collaboration process. A number of theoretical frameworks have been employed, including policy network theory; partnership and collaboration theory; organisational learning; and trust and social capital. The structural components of the West Midlands RDA network are explored, including the structural configuration of the network and stocks of human and social capital assets. These combine to form the asset base of the network. Three sets of network behaviours are then explored, namely, strategy, the management of perceptions, and learning. The thesis explores how the combination of assets and behaviours affect, and in turn are affected by, each other. The findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge and understanding surrounding policy networks and collaborative governance.

Forging futures? Engineering in the primary school curriculum

Starting with the research question, "How can the Primary School Curriculum be developed so as to spark Children's Engineering Imaginations from an early age?" this paper sets out to critically analyse the issues around embedding Engineering in the Primary School Curriculum from the age of 5 years. Findings from an exploratory research project suggest that in order to promote the concept of Engineering Education to potential university students (and in doing so begin to address issues around recruitment / retention within Engineering) there is a real need to excite and engage children with the subject from a young age. Indeed, it may be argued that within today's digital society, the need to encourage children to engage with Engineering is vital to the future sustainable development of our society. Whilst UK Government policy documents highlight the value of embedding Engineering into the school curriculum there is little or no evidence to suggest that Engineering has been successfully embedded into the elementary level school curriculum. Building on the emergent findings of the first stage of a longitudinal study, this paper concludes by arguing that Engineering could be embedded into the curriculum through innovative pedagogical approaches which contextualise project-based learning experiences within more traditional subjects including science, history, geography, literacy and numeracy.