Welfare Maximizing Contest Success Functions when the Planner Cannot Commit

We analyze how a contest organizer chooses optimally the winner when the contestants' efforts are already exerted and commitment to the use of a given contest success function is not possible. We de…ne the notion of rationalizability in mixed-strategies to capture such a situation. Our approach allows to derive different contest success functions depending on the aims and attitudes of the decider. We derive contest success functions which are closely related to commonly used functions providing new support for them. By taking into account social welfare considerations our approach bridges the contest literature and the recent literature on political economy. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function, Mixed-Strategies. JEL Classi…cation: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances)

Product differentiation, competitive pressure and the effects of innovation on the success and survivability of firms in oligopoly markets

In a recent paper Tishler and Milstein (2009) fi…nd that increased competition may increase aggregate R&D spending while market output decreases. Therefore, they obtain the surprising result that R&D spending is excessive when competition becomes intense. Their result is based on the standard linear demand function for differentiated products introduced by Bowley (1924) where decreased product differentiation is interpreted as more competitive pressure. In this paper I show that at an aggregate level this interpretation is problematic because equilibrium effects are dominated by a demand reduction effect. A slight modifi…cation of the standard demand function eliminates this effect. For the Tishler and Milstein (2009) setting it is shown that then increased competition increases both R&D spending and aggregate market output. Therefore, at least for consumers, more intense competition increases welfare. Journal of Economic Literature Classi…fication Numbers: D43, L1, O3. Keywords: Oligopoly markets, Product differentiation, Competitive pressure.

In-situ revascularisation for secondary aorto-enteric fistulae: the success of silver-coated Dacron is closely linked to a suitable bowel repair.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess short- and mid-term results of in-situ revascularisation (ISR) using silver-coated Dacron prostheses and bowel repair for management of secondary aorto-enteric fistulae (SAEF). DESIGN: Single-centre retrospective chart review. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study includes all the patients treated by ISR using silver-coated Dacron for SAEF between 2006 and 2010. Primary end points were mortality and survival rates. Secondary end points were reinfection-free survival and secondary patency rates. RESULTS: Eighteen male patients with SAEF with a median age of 64 years were operated by ISR using silver-coated Dacron during the study period without operative death. The 30-day mortality was 22% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 39%. Indeed, during hospitalisation, a duodenal leak was observed in four patients including three who died. Four others patients died due to multi-system organ failure. Median follow-up was 16 months (range 1-66). The survival rate at 12 months was 55%. One duodenal leak was observed leading to death. The reinfection-free survival and the secondary patency rates at 12 months were 60% and 89%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In-situ revascularisation with silver-coated Dacron provides acceptable results in terms of mortality. This treatment may be useful for simple vascular reconstruction and allow greater attention to bowel repair that is a determinant in short- and mid-term survival.

Analysis of functional and anatomical success following endonasal dacryocystorhinostomy

RésuméLes sténoses des voies lacrymales sont fréquentes surtout chez les patients âgés et provoquent en général un epiphora avec parfois des dacryocystites aiguës ou chroniques. La dacryocystorhinostomie par voie externe (DCREX) a été la technique de choix pour traiter les sténoses post-canaliculaires au XXe siècle. Avec l'avènement de l'endoscopie nasale, l'abord endonasal est devenu facilement accessible et depuis une dizaine d'années, la dacryocystorhinostomie par voie endonasale (DCREN) est en train de supplanter la DCREX dans la majorité des cas.Le but de ce travail est de déterminer les étiologies des sténoses des voies lacrimales, d'évaluer le taux de succès et les complications de la DCREN et de détailler les gestes associés peropératoires.Cette étude rétrospective porte sur 98 patients ayant subi 104 DCREN entre janvier 1994 et février 2006. 78 patients (53 femmes et 25 hommes) présentant 84 sténoses post- canaliculaires remplissent les critères d'inclusion de l'étude. L'âge moyen est de 59 ans (4 - 89 ans).Les résultats obtenus montrent un taux de succès fonctionnel de 94.9% après une première intervention (59/84 DCREN) et de 63.6% pour les DCREN secondaires qui nous ont été référées après d'autres interventions des voies lacrymales (25/84 DCREN). Le suivi postopératoire est de 36,8 mois (12-77 mois). On dénombre 61 gestes rhino-sinusaux associés à la DCREN. Les complications per- et postopératoires sont rares, essentiellement liées aux drains bicanaliculaires. Une étiologie n'a été retrouvée que dans 28% des cas.En conclusion, la DCREN donne d'excellents résultats et peu de complications. En raison des nombreux avantages par rapport à la voie externe et la possibilité du traitement simultané de la pathologie ORL parfois associée, la DCREN est devenue le traitement de premier choix pour les sténoses postcanaliculaires. Le principal défi, quelque soit le type de DCR, est de poser la bonne indication opératoire et en cas d'échec opératoire savoir méticuleusement analyser ses causes

Success and Failure for Children Born with Facial Clefts in Africa: A 15-Year Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: This study reviews the 15 year program of our Department of Pediatric Surgery for the treatment and follow-up of children born with a cleft in Benin and Togo. METHODS: We analyzed files of children born in Africa with a cleft. They were referred to us through a nongovernmental organization (NGO) between 1993 and 2008 and assessed in Africa by local pediatricians before and after surgery. Operations were performed by our team. RESULTS: Two hundred files were reviewed: 60 cases of unilateral cleft lip, seven of bilateral cleft lip, 44 of unilateral cleft lip palate (UCLP), 29 of bilateral cleft lip palate (BCLP), 53 of cleft palate (CP), three of bilateral oro-ocular cleft, one of unilateral and two of median clefts (Binder), and one of commissural cleft. Sixty-nine (35 %) of these cases were not operated in Africa: 25 (12.5 %) had not shown up, 28 (15 %) were considered unfit for surgery (Down's syndrome, HIV-positive, malnutrition, cardiac malformation), and 16 (7.5 %) were transferred to Switzerland. Palatal fistula occurred in 20 % of UCLP, 30 % of BCLP, and 16 % of CP. Evaluation of speech after palate surgery gave less than 50 % of socially acceptable speech. CONCLUSIONS: Our partnership with a NGO and a local team makes it possible to treat and subsequently follow children born with a cleft in West Africa. Surgery is performed under good conditions. If aesthetic results are a success, functional results after palate surgery need further improvement to promote integration in school and social life.

The attractiveness of nations in global competition : an empirical assessment of the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events, 1990-2012

This dissertation aims to investigate empirical evidence on the importance and influence of attractiveness of nations in global competition. The notion of country attractiveness, which has been widely developed in the research areas of international business, tourism and migration, is a multi-dimensional construct to measure a country's characteristics with regard to its market or destination that attract international investors, tourists and migrants. This analytical concept provides an account of the mechanism as to how potential stakeholders evaluate more attractive countries based on certain criteria. Thus, in the field of international sport-event bidding, do international sport event owners also have specific country attractiveness for their sport event hosts? The dissertation attempts to address this research question by statistically assessing the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events. Based on theories of signaling and soft power, country attractiveness is defined and measured as the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. This thesis proceeds to examine the concept of sport-event-hosting strategy and explore multi-level factors affecting the success in international sport-event bidding. By exploring past history of the Olympic Movement from theoretical perspectives, the thesis proposes and tests the hypotheses that economic, social and environmental attractiveness of a country may be correlated with its bid wins or the success of sport-event-hosting strategy. Quantitative analytical methods with various robustness checks are employed with using collected data on bidding results of major events in Olympic sports during the period from 1990 to 2012. The analysis results reveal that event owners of international Olympic sports are likely to prefer countries that have higher economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. The empirical assessment of this thesis suggests that high country attractiveness can be an essential element of prerequisites for a city/country to secure in order to bid with an increased chance of success.

What is the most relevant standard of success in assisted reproduction?: The cumulated singleton/twin delivery rates per oocyte pick-up: the CUSIDERA and CUTWIDERA.

National and international registries are essential tools for establishing new standards and comparing success rates, but they do not take into account the total pregnancy/delivery rate per oocyte recovery. In Switzerland and Germany, because of legal constraints, a maximum of three two-pronuclear zygotes are allocated for transfer whereas all the supernumerary pronuclear zygotes are immediately cryopreserved, preventing selection of the transferred embryos. We report on a 10 years' experience (1993-2002) of our centre which performs transfers of unselected embryos and cryopreservation at the two-pronuclear zygote stage. As approximately 30% of all deliveries are from cryo cycles, it is essential to take into account the contribution of the cryo transfers, and we propose therefore to evaluate, as a measure of IVF performance, the cumulated delivery rate per oocyte pick-up. This delivery rate is broken down further into the cumulated singleton delivery rate (CUSIDERA) and the cumulated twin delivery rate (CUTWIDERA). The sum (S) of these two rates is a measure of efficacy while the ratio CUTWIDERA/S as a percentage is a measure of safety of IVF treatments. Using these new indexes, the average 10 year efficacy and safety of our IVF programme were 26 and 19%, respectively. Both CUSIDERA and CUTWIDERA can be calculated easily in any clinical situation and yield useful parameters for patient counselling and internal/external benchmarking purposes.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital: predictive value of patient and process characteristics.

To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence. Alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43%for treatment adherence and 28%for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow to identify subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

HIV-1 reverse transcriptase connection domain mutations: dynamics of emergence and implications for success of combination antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Factors promoting the emergence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) reverse transcriptase (RT) connection domain mutations and their effect on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are still largely undetermined. We investigated this matter by analyzing genotypic resistance tests covering 400 amino acid positions in the RT of HIV-1 subtype B viruses and corresponding treatment histories and laboratory measurements. METHODS: The emergence of connection domain mutations was studied in 334 patients receiving monotherapy or dual therapy with thymidine analogues at the time of the genotypic resistance test. Response to subsequent combination ART (cART) was analyzed using Cox regression for 291 patients receiving unboosted protease inhibitors. Response was defined by ever reaching an HIV RNA level <50 copies/mL during the first cART. RESULTS: The connection domain mutations N348I, R356K, R358K, A360V, and A371V were more frequently observed in ART-exposed than ART-naive patients, of which only N348I and A360V were nonpolymorphic (with a prevalence of <1.5% in untreated patients). N348I correlated with M184V and predominantly occurred in patients receiving lamivudine and zidovudine concomitantly. A360V was not associated with specific drug combinations and was found to emerge later than M184V or thymidine analogue mutations. Nonpolymorphic connection domain mutations were rarely detected in the absence of established drug resistance mutations in ART-exposed individuals (prevalence, <1%). None of the 5 connection domain mutations associated with treatment showed a statistically significant effect on response to cART. CONCLUSIONS: Despite their frequent emergence, connection domain mutations did not show large detrimental effects on response to cART. Currently, routine implementation of connection domain sequencing seems unnecessary for developed health care settings.

Suitability, success and sinks: how do predictions of nesting distributions relate to fitness parameters in high arctic waders?

AimAlthough habitat suitability maps derived from species distribution models (SDMs) are often assumed to highlight locations that can sustain healthy populations over time, the relationship between suitability scores and fitness parameters has rarely been tested thoroughly. LocationZackenberg Valley, north-east Greenland. MethodsUsing 14years of data (1997-2010) representing three wader species (dunlin Calidris alpina, sanderling Calidris alba and ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres), we tested the relationships between modelled suitability and fitness parameters at nesting locations. ResultsAmong the three species examined, only the ruddy turnstone exhibited significant relationships between suitability and nest success, but over time rather than space. During years with extensive snow cover in the landscape, the nesting sites of ruddy turnstone occurred in different habitats than were typically used across years. Moreover, in years with extensive snow cover, the ruddy turnstone initiated nests later and suffered from higher egg predation rates. Main conclusionOur results suggest that SDMs derived from species occurrences that include years of low reproductive success may over-estimate the potential suitable habitat in the landscape. Whenever possible, variation in reproductive success should be considered when building models to inform species' response to environmental change. species' response to environmental change.

An ecomorphological analysis of the determinants of mating success

Investigating the factors affecting the strength of sexual selection is important for understanding the evolution of sex-specific morphological and behavioural traits. Traditionally, sexual selection studies focus on male ornaments, although recent evidence indicates that sexual selection mechanisms also target organismal performance. In the present study, we investigated the role of sexually dimorphic morphological and performance traits of the common (viviparous) lizard (Zootoca vivipara, Jacquin 1787) with respect to determining mating behaviour. Using an experimental set-up controlling for size differences, we found that males with longer tails had a higher probability of mating a female. Unexpectedly, males with lower bite forces had an advantage over males with higher bite forces, whereas males with bigger heads copulated for a longer time with the female. This shows that predicting mating success is not straightforward and is sometimes counterintuitive because a longer tail appears to be beneficial, whereas biting harder is not, for male Z. vivipara in a male-female interaction context

Poland’s adaptation to the CFSP: success or failure?

This paper attempts to analyse the process of Poland’s adaptation to the European Union in the area of CFSP before the enlargement in order to show if such institutional processes might have impact on the present Polish position in the EU’s foreign policy. The first, introductory section sets out the analytical framework of such processes based upon the adaptation concept definition. The second section provides the analysis of Polish predisposition to adapt to the emerging external challenge. The third section is dedicated to the analysis of the institutional relations between Poland and EU paying special attention to the CFSP area. The fourth section discusses the Polish behavior towards different aspects of CFSP cooperation and her positions regarding further development of this area of European integration.