985 resultados para forecast combination


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This paper proposes a multilevel inverter configuration which produces a hexagonal voltage space vector structure in the lower modulation region and a 12-sided polygonal space vector structure in the overmodulation region. A conventional multilevel inverter produces 6n plusmn 1 (n = odd) harmonics in the phase voltage during overmodulation and in the extreme square-wave mode of operation. However, this inverter produces a 12-sided polygonal space vector location, leading to the elimination of 6n plusmn 1 (n = odd) harmonics in the overmodulation region extending to a final 12-step mode of operation with a smooth transition. The benefits of this arrangement are lower losses and reduced torque pulsation in an induction motor drive fed from this converter at higher modulation indexes. The inverter is fabricated by using three conventional cascaded two-level inverters with asymmetric dc-bus voltages. A comparative simulation study of the harmonic distortion in the phase voltage and associated losses in conventional multilevel inverters and that of the proposed inverter is presented in this paper. Experimental validation on a prototype shows that the proposed converter is suitable for high-power applications because of low harmonic distortion and low losses.

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Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

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An analytical method for the measurement of five naturally occurring bromophenols of sensory relevance in seafood (barramundi and prawns) is presented. The method combines simultaneous distillation−extraction followed by alkaline back extraction of a hexane extract and subsequent acetylation of the bromophenols. Analysis of the bromophenol acetates was accomplished by headspace solid phase microextraction and gas chromatography−mass spectrometry using selected ion monitoring. The addition of 13C6 bromophenol stable isotope internal standards for each of the five congeners studied permitted the accurate quantitation of 2-bromophenol, 4-bromophenol, 2,6-dibromophenol, 2,4-dibromophenol, and 2,4,6-tribromophenol down to a limit of quantification of 0.05 ng/g of fish flesh. The method indicated acceptable precision and repeatability and excellent linearity over the typical concentration range of these compounds in seafood (0.5−50 ng/g). The analytical method was applied to determine the concentration of bromophenols in a range of farmed and wild barramundi and prawns and was also used to monitor bromophenol uptake in a pilot feeding trial.

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Estimation of secondary structure in polypeptides is important for studying their structure, folding and dynamics. In NMR spectroscopy, such information is generally obtained after sequence specific resonance assignments are completed. We present here a new methodology for assignment of secondary structure type to spin systems in proteins directly from NMR spectra, without prior knowledge of resonance assignments. The methodology, named Combination of Shifts for Secondary Structure Identification in Proteins (CSSI-PRO), involves detection of specific linear combination of backbone H-1(alpha) and C-13' chemical shifts in a two-dimensional (2D) NMR experiment based on G-matrix Fourier transform (GFT) NMR spectroscopy. Such linear combinations of shifts facilitate editing of residues belonging to alpha-helical/beta-strand regions into distinct spectral regions nearly independent of the amino acid type, thereby allowing the estimation of overall secondary structure content of the protein. Comparison of the predicted secondary structure content with those estimated based on their respective 3D structures and/or the method of Chemical Shift Index for 237 proteins gives a correlation of more than 90% and an overall rmsd of 7.0%, which is comparable to other biophysical techniques used for structural characterization of proteins. Taken together, this methodology has a wide range of applications in NMR spectroscopy such as rapid protein structure determination, monitoring conformational changes in protein-folding/ligand-binding studies and automated resonance assignment.

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Glucosinolates are a group of sulphur-containing glycosides found in the plant order Brassicales which includes the Brassica vegetables such as broccoli, cabbage and cauliflower. When brought into contact with the plant enzymes, myrosinases, the glucosinolates break down releasing glucose and other products which serve principally in plant defence against herbivores. The most important of the products from a human nutritional viewpoint, are the isothiocyanates. These potent inducers of detoxifying enzymes bestow the distinct anti-cancer properties on these plants. Unique among tropical fruits, papaya is known to contain an abundance of one particular glucosinolate, glucotropaeolin. Other compounds that play a pivotal role in the chemical defence system of many plants are the cyanogenic glycosides. Cyanogenic glycosides are activated by plant enzymes in the event of pest attack, releasing the deterrent: toxic hydrogen cyanide. Papaya, in addition to glucosinolates, also contains low levels of cyanogenic glycosides, an unusual occurrence because it was assumed that the two classes of metabolites were mutually exclusive. Studies measuring the levels of both in the edible parts of the papaya fruit and other utilised tissues are discussed and considered in the context of potential human health ramifications. All rights reserved, Elsevier.

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Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types: a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat production. This research project in environmental geology has arisen out of an observed need to be able to predict more accurately the loading of watercourses with detrimental organic substances and nutrients from already existing and planned peat production areas, since the authorities capacity for insisting on such predictions covering the whole duration of peat production in connection with evaluations of environmental impact is at present highly limited. National and international decisions regarding monitoring of the condition of watercourses and their improvement and restoration require more sophisticated evaluation methods in order to be able to forecast watercourse loading and its environmental impacts at the stage of land-use planning and preparations for peat production.The present project thus set out from the premise that it would be possible on the basis of existing mire and peat data properties to construct estimates for the typical loading from production mires over the whole duration of their exploitation. Finland has some 10 million hectares of peatland, accounting for almost a third of its total area. Macroclimatic conditions have varied in the course of the Holocene growth and development of this peatland, and with them the habitats of the peat-forming plants. Temperatures and moisture conditions have played a significant role in determining the dominant species of mire plants growing there at any particular time, the resulting mire types and the accumulation and deposition of plant remains to form the peat. The above climatic, environmental and mire development factors, together with ditching, have contributed, and continue to contribute, to the existence of peat horizons that differ in their physical and chemical properties, leading to differences in material transport between peatlands in a natural state and mires that have been ditched or prepared for forestry and peat production. Watercourse loading from the ditching of mires or their use for peat production can have detrimental effects on river and lake environments and their recreational use, especially where oxygen-consuming organic solids and soluble organic substances and nutrients are concerned. It has not previously been possible, however, to estimate in advance the watercourse loading likely to arise from ditching and peat production on the basis of the characteristics of the peat in a mire, although earlier observations have indicated that watercourse loading from peat production can vary greatly and it has been suggested that differences in peat properties may be of significance in this. Sprinkling is used here in combination with simulations of conditions in a milled peat production area to determine the influence of the physical and chemical properties of milled peats in production mires on surface runoff into the drainage ditches and the concentrations of material in the runoff water. Sprinkling and extraction experiments were carried out on 25 samples of milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peat of humification grades H 2.5 8.5 with moisture content in the range 23.4 89% on commencement of the first sprinkling, which was followed by a second sprinkling 24 hours later. The water retention capacity of the peat was best, and surface runoff lowest, with Sphagnum and Carex peat samples of humification grades H 2.5 6 in the moisture content class 56 75%. On account of the hydrophobicity of dry peat, runoff increased in a fairly regular manner with drying of the sample from 55% to 24 30%. Runoff from the samples with an original moisture content over 55% increased by 63% in the second round of sprinkling relative to the first, as they had practically reached saturation point on the first occasion, while those with an original moisture content below 55% retained their high runoff in the second round, due to continued hydrophobicity. The well-humified samples (H 6.5 8.5) with a moisture content over 80% showed a low water retention capacity and high runoff in both rounds of sprinkling. Loading of the runoff water with suspended solids, total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and also the chemical oxygen demand (CODMn O2), varied greatly in the sprinkling experiment, depending on the peat type and degree of humification, but concentrations of the same substances in the two sprinklings were closely or moderately closely correlated and these correlations were significant. The concentrations of suspended solids in the runoff water observed in the simulations of a peat production area and the direct surface runoff from it into the drainage ditch system in response to rain (sprinkling intensity 1.27 mm/min) varied c. 60-fold between the degrees of humification in the case of the Carex peats and c. 150-fold for the Sphagnum peats, while chemical oxygen demand varied c. 30-fold and c. 50-fold, respectively, total phosphorus c. 60-fold and c. 66-fold, total nitrogen c. 65-fold and c. 195-fold and ammonium nitrogen c. 90-fold and c. 30-fold. The increases in concentrations in the runoff water were very closely correlated with increases in humification of the peat. The correlations of the concentrations measured in extraction experiments (48 h) with peat type and degree of humification corresponded to those observed in the sprinkler experiments. The resulting figures for the surface runoff from a peat production area into the drainage ditches simulated by means of sprinkling and material concentrations in the runoff water were combined with statistics on the mean extent of daily rainfall (0 67 mm) during the frost-free period of the year (May October) over an observation period of 30 years to yield typical annual loading figures (kg/ha) for suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand of organic matter (CODmn O2), total phosphorus (tot. P) and total nitrogen (tot. N) entering the ditches with respect to milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peats of humification grades H 2.5 8.5. In order to calculate the loading of drainage ditches from a milled peat production mire with the aid of these annual comparative values (in kg/ha), information is required on the properties of the intended production mire and its peat. Once data are available on the area of the mire, its peat depth, peat types and their degrees of humification, dry matter content, calorific value and corresponding energy content, it is possible to produce mutually comparable estimates for individual mires with respect to the annual loading of the drainage ditch system and the surrounding watercourse for the whole service life of the production area, the duration of this service life, determinations of energy content and the amount of loading per unit of energy generated (kg/MWh). In the 8 mires in the Köyhäjoki basin, Central Ostrobothnia, taken as an example, the loading of suspended solids (SS) in the drainage ditch networks calculated on the basis of the typical values obtained here and existing mire and peat data and expressed per unit of energy generated varied between the mires and horizons in the range 0.9 16.5 kg/MWh. One of the aims of this work was to develop means of making better use of existing mire and peat data and the results of corings and other field investigations. In this respect combination of the typical loading values (kg/ha) obtained here for S, SC, CS and C peats and the various degrees of humification (H 2.5 8.5) with the above mire and peat data by means of a computer program for the acquisition and handling of such data would enable all the information currently available and that deposited in the system in the future to be used for defining watercourse loading estimates for mires and comparing them with the corresponding estimates of energy content. The intention behind this work has been to respond to the challenge facing the energy generation industry to find larger peat production areas that exert less loading on the environment and to that facing the environmental authorities to improve the means available for estimating watercourse loading from peat production and its environmental impacts in advance. The results conform well to the initial hypothesis and to the goals laid down for the research and should enable watercourse loading from existing and planned peat production to be evaluated better in the future and the resulting impacts to be taken into account when planning land use and energy generation. The advance loading information available in this way would be of value in the selection of individual peat production areas, the planning of their exploitation, the introduction of water protection measures and the planning of loading inspections, in order to achieve controlled peat production that pays due attention to environmental considerations.

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Interaction of shock heated test gas in the free piston driven shock tube with bulk and thin film of cubic zirconium dioxide (ZrO2) prepared by combustion method is investigated. The test samples before and after exposure to the shock wave are analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). The study shows transformation of metastable cubic ZrO2 to stable monoclinic ZrO2 phase after interacting with shock heated oxygen gas due to the heterogeneous catalytic recombination surface reaction.

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Adoptive T cell therapy uses the specificity of the adaptive immune system to target cancer and virally infected cells. Yet the mechanism and means by which to enhance T cell function are incompletely described, especially in the skin. In this study, we use a murine model of immunotherapy to optimize cell-mediated immunity in the skin. We show that in vitro - derived central but not effector memory-like T cells bring about rapid regression of skin-expressing cognate Ag as a transgene in keratinocytes. Local inflammation induced by the TLR7 receptor agonist imiquimod subtly yet reproducibly decreases time to skin graft rejection elicited by central but not effector memory T cells in an immunodeficient mouse model. Local CCL4, a chemokine liberated by TLR7 agonism, similarly enhances central memory T cell function. In this model, IL-2 facilitates the development in vivo of effector function from central memory but not effector memory T cells. In a model of T cell tolerogenesis, we further show that adoptively transferred central but not effector memory T cells can give rise to successful cutaneous immunity, which is dependent on a local inflammatory cue in the target tissue at the time of adoptive T cell transfer. Thus, adoptive T cell therapy efficacy can be enhanced if CD8+ T cells with a central memory T cell phenotype are transferred, and IL-2 is present with contemporaneous local inflammation. Copyright © 2012 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

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The self-diffusion properties of pure CH4 and its binary mixture with CO2 within MY zeolite have been investigated by combining an experimental quasi-elastic neutron scattering (QENS) technique and classical Molecular dynamics simulations. The QENS measurements carried out at 200 K led to an unexpected self-diffusivity profile for Pure CH4 with the presence of a maximum for a loading of 32 CH4/unit cell, which was never observed before for the diffusion of apolar species in azeolite system With large windows. Molecular dynamics simulations were performed using two distinct microscopic models for representing the CH4/NaY interactions. Depending on the model, we are able to fairly reproduce either the magnitude or the profile of the self-diffusivity.Further analysis allowed LIS to provide some molecular insight into the diffusion mechanism in play. The QENS measurements report only a slight decrease of the self-diffusivity of CH4 in the presence of CO2 when the CO2 loading increases. Molecular dynamics simulations successfully capture this experimental trend and suggest a plausible microscopic diffusion mechanism in the case of this binary mixture.

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Evaluation of protein and metabolite expression patterns in blood using mass spectrometry and high-throughput antibody-based screening platforms has potential for the discovery of new biomarkers for managing breast cancer patient treatment. Previously identified blood-based breast cancer biomarkers, including cancer antigen 15.3 (CA15-3) are useful in combination with imaging (computed tomography scans, magnetic resonance imaging, X-rays) and physical examination for monitoring tumour burden in advanced breast cancer patients. However, these biomarkers suffer from insufficient levels of accuracy and with new therapies available for the treatment of breast cancer, there is an urgent need for reliable, non-invasive biomarkers that measure tumour burden with high sensitivity and specificity so as to provide early warning of the need to switch to an alternative treatment. The aim of this study was to identify a biomarker signature of tumour burden using cancer and non-cancer (healthy controls/non-malignant breast disease) patient samples. Results demonstrate that combinations of three candidate biomarkers from Glutamate, 12-Hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid, Beta-hydroxybutyrate, Factor V and Matrix metalloproteinase-1 with CA15-3, an established biomarker for breast cancer, were found to mirror tumour burden, with AUC values ranging from 0.71 to 0.98 when comparing non-malignant breast disease to the different stages of breast cancer. Further validation of these biomarker panels could potentially facilitate the management of breast cancer patients, especially to assess changes in tumour burden in combination with imaging and physical examination.

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We combine searches by the CDF and D0 collaborations for a Higgs boson decaying to W+W-. The data correspond to an integrated total luminosity of 4.8 (CDF) and 5.4 (D0) fb-1 of p-pbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. No excess is observed above background expectation, and resulting limits on Higgs boson production exclude a standard-model Higgs boson in the mass range 162-166 GeV at the 95% C.L.

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The momentum balance of the linear-combination integral model for the transition zone is investigated for constant pressure flows. The imbalance is found to be small enough to be negligible for all practical purposes. [S0889-504X(00)00703-0].

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An alternative pulse scheme which simplifies and improves the recently proposed P.E.COSY experiment is suggested for the retention of connected or unconnected transitions in a coupled spin system. An important feature of the proposed pulse scheme is the improved phase characteristics of the diagonal peaks. A comparison of various experiments designed for this purpose, namely COSY-45, E.COSY, P.E.COSY and the present scheme (A.E.COSY), is also presented. The suppression of unconnected transitions and the measurement of scalar coupling constants and their relative signs are illustrated from A.E.COSY spectra of 2,3-dibromopropionic acid and 2-(2-thienyl)pyridine.