Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation A field study conducted over three consecutive years, on a farm using crop rotation system under center-pivot and infested with the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, P. zeae, Meloidogyne incognita, Paratrichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus dihystera, Mesocriconema ornata and M. onoense, demonstrated that intensive crop systems provide conditions for the maintenance of high densities of polyphagous phytonematodes. Of the crops established on the farm (cotton, maize, soybean and cowpea), cotton and soybean suffered the most severe crop losses, caused respectively by M. incognita and P. brachyurus. Since maize is a good host for both nematodes, but tolerant of M. incognita, its exclusion from cropping system would be favorable to the performance of cotton, soybean and cowpea. Results from experiments carried out in controlled conditions confirmed the pathogenicity of P. brachyurus on cotton. Additional management with genetic resistance was useful in fields infested with M. incognita, although the soybean performance was affected by low resistance of the cultivars used for P. brachyurus. In conclusion, crop rotation must be carefully planned in areas infested with polyphagous nematodes, specifically in the case of occurrence of two or more major pathogenic nematodes.

Host Status of Graminaceous Cover Crops for Pratylenchus brachyurus

Taking into account that information about the host status of cover crops for Pratylenchus brachyurus is scarce or contradictory, this study was undertaken to assess the host status of selected graminaceous cover crops by estimating nematode reproduction and their ability to decrease the nematode density in glasshouse conditions. Furthermore, the reproductive fitness of three P. brachyurus populations was assessed for Brachiaria grasses. Silage and forage sorghum proved to be good hosts for P. brachyurus; consequently, they should be avoided in fields infested with this lesion nematode, mainly before susceptible crop such as soybean, common bean, cowpea, and cotton. Dictyoneura grass, the pearl millet cv. ADR 300, and black oat were poor hosts for P. brachyurus but may increase densities of this nematode over time. Consequently, these cover crops might be used in infested fields for only short periods, because they could increase the P. brachyurus population density slowly but progressively.

Host suitability of oats for Pratylenchus brachyurus

Host suitability of oats for Pratylenchus brachyurus Black oat (Avena strigosa), white oat (A. sativa) and Algerian oat (A. byzantina) are extensively cultivated in the south of Brazil for grain, forage, hay and silage production, or as cover crop in no-tillage and crop-pasture integration systems. In both systems, the genotypes of oat used as cover crop must be nonhosts or poor hosts of damaging nematodes for summer cash crops. Taking into account the relevance of Pratylenchus brachyurus as a pathogen for many cash crops in Brazil, two experiments were carried out in a glasshouse in order to evaluate the host suitability of selected oat cultivars to this nematode. The initial population inoculated (Pi) were 92 specimens/plot in experiment 1, and 270 in experiment 2. At the end of experimental periods (86 days after inoculation in experiment 1 and 67 days in experiment 2), the final population (Pf) of P. brachyurus was estimated and the reproductive factor (RF = Pf/Pi) was calculated. The results demonstrated that black oat (RF = 0.04-1.03) is more valuable than Algerian oat (RF = 2.63-2.88) or white oat (RF = 1.37-1.93) for the management of P. brachyurus.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Oxisol as Affected by Liming and Crop Residues under No-Till

The short-term effects of surface lime application and black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, with or without N fertilization, were evaluated in a long-term no-till (NT) system on a sandy clay loam, a kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox from the state of Parana, Brazil. The main plot treatments were: control and dolomitic lime applied on soil surface at 8 Mg ha(-1). Three treatments with crop residues were evaluated on the subplots: (i) fallow, (ii) black oat residues, and (iii) black oat residues aft er N fertilization at 180 kg ha(-1). Black oat dry biomass was not affected by the treatments during 3 yr. Surface liming increased soil pH, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and bacterial/fungal ratio at the soil surface (0-5 cm), resulting in increased amino acid turnover, water-soluble humic substances formation, and N mineralization and nitrification. While the application of black oat did increase the soil pH, overall it had much less effect on soil biological processes and C and N pools than did lime. We concluded that black oat cannot replace the need for lime to optimize crop production in these tropical NT systems. In the long term, however, black oat should aid in the amelioration of acidity and replenishment of soil organic C pools and should help reduce erosion. Overall, this study suggests that overapplication of inorganic fertilizer N may occur in some tropical NT systems. Further experiments are required in NT systems to investigate the use of slow-release N fertilizers in combination with lime and black oat as a mechanism to reduce acidification and promote sustainability.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of seedless watermelon

The research was developed in Fortaleza, CE (latitude 3 degrees 43`S, longitude of 38 degrees 32`W and altitude of 19.5 m). It aimed to determine the Evapotranspiration and the crop coefficients for the different stadiums of seedless watermelon (Citrullus lanatus, Schrad), using the water balance method in drainage lysimeter. The experimental unit consisted of four located drainage lysimeter in an area of 600 m(2). The culture Evapotranspiration (ETc) was determined by the method of the water balance, in a volume of soil control with depth of 0.45 m, whose humidity was monitored by tensiometers. The reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) was estimated by the method of the class A pan. The crop coefficients were obtained from the rate between ETc and ETo in the different stages. The ETc presented growing values from the vegetative stage to the fruiting stage, dropping straight away in the mature stage. The maximum value of kc was observed in the fruiting stage.

Silicon distribution and accumulation in shoot tissue of the tropical forage grass Brachiaria brizantha

Silicon (Si) accumulation in organs and cells is one of the most prominent characteristics of plants of the family Poaceae. Many species from this family are used as forage plants for animal feeding. The present study investigates in Brachiaria brizantha (Hochst. ex A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. Marandu: (1) the dry matter production and Si content in shoot due to soil Si fertilizations; (2) the Si distribution among shoot parts; and (3) the silica deposition and localization in leaves. Plants of B. brizantha cv. Marandu were grown under contrasting Si supplies in soil and nutrient solution. Silica deposition and distribution in grass leaf blades were observed using light microscope and scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer (SEM-EDXS). Silicon concentration in the B. brizantha shoot increased according to the Si supply. Silicon in grass leaves decreased following the order: mature leaf blades > recently expanded leaf blades > non-expanded leaf blades. Silicon accumulates mainly on the upper (adaxial) epidermis of the grass leaf blades and, especially, on the bulliform cells. The Si distribution on adaxial leaf blade surface is non uniform and reflects a silica deposition exclusively on the cell wall of bulliform cells.

Analysis of long-term light-trap data for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia: the effect of climate and crop host plants

Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri, Australia, were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner). The size of the second generation was significantly related to the size of the first generation, to winter rainfall, which had a positive effect, and to spring rainfall which had a negative effect. These variables accounted for up to 96% of the variation in size of the second generation from year to year. Rainfall and crop hosts were also important for the size of the third generation. The area and tonnage of many potential host crops were significantly correlated with winter rain. When winter rain was omitted from the analysis, the sizes of both the second and third generations could be expressed as a function of the size of the previous generation and of the areas planted to lucerne, sorghum and maize. Lucerne and maize always had positive coefficients and sorghum a negative one. We extended our analysis to catches of H. punctigera (Wallengren), which declines in abundance after the second generation. Winter rain had a positive effect on the sizes of the second and third generations, and rain in spring or early summer had a negative effect. Only the area grown to lucerne had a positive effect on abundance. Forecasts of pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance are discussed, along with the improved understanding of the seasonal dynamics of both species and the significance of crops in the management of insecticide resistance for H. armigera.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.