Reduced Bayesian Hierarchical Models: Estimating Health Effects of Simultaneous Exposure to Multiple Pollutants

Quantifying the health effects associated with simultaneous exposure to many air pollutants is now a research priority of the US EPA. Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) have been extensively used in multisite time series studies of air pollution and health to estimate health effects of a single pollutant adjusted for potential confounding of other pollutants and other time-varying factors. However, when the scientific goal is to estimate the impacts of many pollutants jointly, a straightforward application of BHM is challenged by the need to specify a random-effect distribution on a high-dimensional vector of nuisance parameters, which often do not have an easy interpretation. In this paper we introduce a new BHM formulation, which we call "reduced BHM", aimed at analyzing clustered data sets in the presence of a large number of random effects that are not of primary scientific interest. At the first stage of the reduced BHM, we calculate the integrated likelihood of the parameter of interest (e.g. excess number of deaths attributed to simultaneous exposure to high levels of many pollutants). At the second stage, we specify a flexible random-effect distribution directly on the parameter of interest. The reduced BHM overcomes many of the challenges in the specification and implementation of full BHM in the context of a large number of nuisance parameters. In simulation studies we show that the reduced BHM performs comparably to the full BHM in many scenarios, and even performs better in some cases. Methods are applied to estimate location-specific and overall relative risks of cardiovascular hospital admissions associated with simultaneous exposure to elevated levels of particulate matter and ozone in 51 US counties during the period 1999-2005.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Mechanical and technical risks in implant therapy

PURPOSE: To systematically appraise the impact of mechanical/technical risk factors on implant-supported reconstructions. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A MEDLINE (PubMed) database search from 1966 to April 2008 was conducted. The search strategy was a combination of MeSH terms and the key words: design, dental implant(s), risk, prosthodontics, fixed prosthodontics, fixed partial denture(s), fixed dental prosthesis (FDP), fixed reconstruction(s), oral rehabilitation, bridge(s), removable partial denture(s), overdenture(s). Randomized controlled trials, controlled trials, and prospective and retrospective cohort studies with a mean follow-up of at least 4 years were included. The material evaluated in each study had to include cases with/without exposure to the risk factor. RESULTS: From 3,568 articles, 111 were selected for full text analysis. Of the 111 articles, 33 were included for data extraction after grouping the outcomes into 10 risk factors: type of retentive elements supporting overdentures, presence of cantilever extension(s), cemented versus screw-retained FDPs, angled/angulated abutments, bruxism, crown/implant ratio, length of the suprastructure, prosthetic materials, number of implants supporting an FDP, and history of mechanical/technical complications. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of a metal framework in overdentures, the presence of cantilever extension(s) > 15 mm and of bruxism, the length of the reconstruction, and a history of repeated complications were associated with increased mechanical/technical complications. The type of retention, the presence of angled abutments, the crown-implant ratio, and the number of implants supporting an FDP were not associated with increased mechanical/technical complications. None of the mechanical/technical risk factors had an impact on implant survival and success rates.

Cone beam computed tomography in implant dentistry: a systematic review focusing on guidelines, indications, and radiation dose risks.

PURPOSE The aim of the paper is to identify, review, analyze, and summarize available evidence in three areas on the use of cross-sectional imaging, specifically maxillofacial cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) in pre- and postoperative dental implant therapy: (1) Available clinical use guidelines, (2) indications and contraindications for use, and (3) assessment of associated radiation dose risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS Three focused questions were developed to address the aims. A systematic literature review was performed using a PICO-based search strategy based on MeSH key words specific to each focused question of English-language publications indexed in the MEDLINE database retrospectively from October 31, 2012. These results were supplemented by a hand search and gray literature search. RESULTS Twelve publications were identified providing guidelines for the use of cross-sectional radiography, particularly CBCT imaging, for the pre- and/or postoperative assessment of potential dental implant sites. The publications discovered by the PICO strategy (43 articles), hand (12), and gray literature searches (1) for the second focus question regarding indications and contraindications for CBCT use in implant dentistry were either cohort or case-controlled studies. For the third question on the assessment of associated radiation dose risk, a total of 22 articles were included. Publication characteristics and themes were summarized in tabular format. CONCLUSIONS The reported indications for CBCT use in implant dentistry vary from preoperative analysis regarding specific anatomic considerations, site development using grafts, and computer-assisted treatment planning to postoperative evaluation focusing on complications due to damage of neurovascular structures. Effective doses for different CBCT devices exhibit a wide range with the lowest dose being almost 100 times less than the highest dose. Significant dose reduction can be achieved by adjusting operating parameters, including exposure factors and reducing the field of view (FOV) to the actual region of interest.

Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

Environmental tobacco smoke exposure, respiratory and cardiovascular health in restaurant and bar workers in Mexico

Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is a well established health hazard, being causally associated to lung cancer and cardiovascular disease. ETS regulations have been developed worldwide to reduce or eliminate exposure in most public places. Restaurants and bars constitute an exception. Restaurants and bar workers experience the highest ETS exposure levels across several occupations, with correspondingly increased health risks. In Mexico, previous exposure assessment in restaurants and bars showed concentrations in bars and restaurants to be the highest across different public and workplaces. Recently, Mexico developed at the federal level the General Law for Tobacco Control restricting indoors smoking to separated areas. AT the local level Mexico City developed the Law for the Protection of Non-smokers Health, completely banning smoking in restaurants and bars. Studies to assess ETS exposure in restaurants and bars, along with potential health effects were required to evaluate the impact of these legislative changes and to set a baseline measurement for future evaluations.^ A large cross-sectional study conducted in restaurants and bars from four Mexican cities was conducted from July to October 2008, to evaluate the following aims: Aim 1) Explore the potential impact of the Mexico City ban on ETS concentrations through comparison of Mexico City with other cities. Aim 2). Explore the association between ETS exposure, respiratory function indicators and respiratory symptoms. Aim 3). Explore the association between ETS exposure and blood pressure and heart rate.^ Three cities with no smoking ban were selected: Colima (11.5% smoking prevalence), Cuernavaca (21.5% smoking prevalence) and Toluca (27.8% smoking prevalence). Mexico City (27.9% smoking prevalence), the only city with a ban at the time of the study, was also selected. Restaurants and bars were randomly selected from municipal records. A goal of 26 restaurants and 26 bars per city was set, 50% of them under 100 m2. Each establishment was visited during the highest occupancy shift, and managers and workers answered to a questionnaire. Vapor-phase nicotine was measured using passive monitors, that were activated at the beginning and deactivated at the end of the shift. Also, workers participated at the beginning and end of the shift in a short physical evaluation, comprising the measurement of Forced Expiratory Volume in the first second (FEV1) and Peak Expiratory Flow (PEF), as well as blood pressure and heart rate.^ A total of 371 establishments were invited, 219 agreed to participate for a 60.1% participation rate. In them, 828 workers were invited, 633 agreed to participate for a 76% participation rate. Mexico City had at least 4 times less nicotine compared to any of the other cities. Differences between Mexico City and other cities were not explained by establishment characteristics, such as ventilation or air extraction. However, differences between cities disappeared when ban mechanisms, such as policy towards costumer's smoking, were considered in the models. An association between ETS exposure and respiratory symptoms (cough OR=1.27, 95%CI=1.04, 1.55) and respiratory illness (asthma OR=1.97, 95%CI=1.20, 3.24; respiratory illness OR=1.79, 95%CI=1.10, 2.94) was observed. No association between ETS and phlegm, wheezing or respiratory infections was observed. No association between ETS and any of the spirometric indicators was observed. An association between ETS exposure and increased systolic and diastolic blood pressure at the end of the shift was observed among non-smokers (systolic blood pressure beta=1.51, 95%CI=0.44, 2.58; diastolic blood pressure beta=1.50, 95%CI=0.72, 2.28). The opposite effect was observed in heavy smokers, were increased ETS exposure was associated with lower blood pressure at the end of the shift (systolic blood pressure beta=1.90, 95%CI=-3.57, -0.23; diastolic blood pressure beta=-1.46, 95%CI=-2.72, -0.02). No association in light smokers was observed. No association for heart rate was observed. ^ Results from this dissertation suggest Mexico City's smoking ban has had a larger impact on ETS exposure. Ventilation or air extraction, mechanisms of ETS control suggested frequently by tobacco companies to avoid smoking bans were not associated with ETS exposure. This dissertation suggests ETS exposure could be linked to changes in blood pressure and to increased respiratory symptoms. Evidence derived from this dissertation points to the potential negative health effects of ETS exposure in restaurants and bars, and provides support for the development of total smoking bans in this economic sector. ^

Information bias and lifetime mortality risks of radiation-induced cancer

Additive and multiplicative models of relative risk were used to measure the effect of cancer misclassification and DS86 random errors on lifetime risk projections in the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The true number of cancer deaths in each stratum of the cancer mortality cross-classification was estimated using sufficient statistics from the EM algorithm. Average survivor doses in the strata were corrected for DS86 random error ($\sigma$ = 0.45) by use of reduction factors. Poisson regression was used to model the corrected and uncorrected mortality rates with covariates for age at-time-of-bombing, age at-time-of-death and gender. Excess risks were in good agreement with risks in RERF Report 11 (Part 2) and the BEIR-V report. Bias due to DS86 random error typically ranged from $-$15% to $-$30% for both sexes, and all sites and models. The total bias, including diagnostic misclassification, of excess risk of nonleukemia for exposure to 1 Sv from age 18 to 65 under the non-constant relative projection model was $-$37.1% for males and $-$23.3% for females. Total excess risks of leukemia under the relative projection model were biased $-$27.1% for males and $-$43.4% for females. Thus, nonleukemia risks for 1 Sv from ages 18 to 85 (DRREF = 2) increased from 1.91%/Sv to 2.68%/Sv among males and from 3.23%/Sv to 4.02%/Sv among females. Leukemia excess risks increased from 0.87%/Sv to 1.10%/Sv among males and from 0.73%/Sv to 1.04%/Sv among females. Bias was dependent on the gender, site, correction method, exposure profile and projection model considered. Future studies that use LSS data for U.S. nuclear workers may be downwardly biased if lifetime risk projections are not adjusted for random and systematic errors. (Supported by U.S. NRC Grant NRC-04-091-02.) ^

EXPOSURE OF PHARMACY PERSONNEL TO ANTINEOPLASTIC DRUGS

This dissertation consists of two parts: (1) Exposure of pharmacy personnel to antineoplastic drugs. The Salmonella reversion test was used to measure the mutagenic activities of urine concentrates from individuals preparing antineoplastic drugs for intravenous administration. Longitudinal studies were performed in which the total urine produced in 24-hour periods was collected, starting on a Sunday at 7 P.M. after a duty-free weekend and extending over an eight-day period. There was no detectable increase in mutagenic activity in the urine concentrates of three pharmacy administrators who had no contact with these drugs. All six individuals admixing drugs in open-faced, horizontal laminar flow hoods displayed a two-fold increase in mutagenesis by the fourth day with peak values of 2.7 to 24-fold occurring on days five and six, reduced values by day seven with a return to the spontaneous level by day eight. When four of the six positive individuals in the preceding experiment admixed comparable amounts of antineoplastic drugs in a closed-faced, vertical laminar flow hood, no increase in mutagenic activity was detected in their urine concentrates over the eight-day period. (2) Estimate of potential carcinogenic risks of antineoplastic drugs. Excision repair is the major repair system that is involved with the elimination of chemically induced DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) lesions. This DNA excision repair capability increases in mammalian species with longer life span such as humans. In this study, the effect of functional DNA excision repair on the mutagenesis invoked by 17 antineoplastic drugs was determined by using a Salmonella/Microsome assay which was expanded to include some uvr('+) counterparts of the excisionless (uvrB) tester strains routinely employed. Although extrapolation cannot be made from bacteria to humans, one should be able to make a qualitative comparison as to which antineoplastic drugs are more potentially carcinogenic to humans based on the effects of excision repair on their mutagenesis in bacteria. The tested antineoplastic drugs were divided into three classes: those requiring excision repair for mutagenesis; those producing nonrepairable genetic damage; and those producing mostly repairable premutational DNA lesions. ^

Arsenic, antimony and selenium in urban soils: potential risks for human health in urban gardening

The benefits of urban agriculture are many and well documented, ranging from health improvement to community betterment, more sustainable urban development and environment protection. On the negative side, urban soils are commonly enriched in toxic trace elements that have accumulated over time through the deposition of atmospheric particles (generated by automotive traffic, heating systems, historical industrial activities and resuspended street dust), and the uncontrolled disposal of domestic, commercial and industrial wastes. This in turn has given rise to concerns about the level of exposure of urban farmers to these elements and the potential health hazards associated with this exposure. Research efforts in this field have started relatively recently and have almost systematically omitted the influence of Sb and Se, and to a lesser extent of As, although all three have proven toxic effects.

A risk assessment for exposure to grunerite asbestos (amosite) in an iron ore mine

The potential for health risks to humans exposed to the asbestos minerals continues to be a public health concern. Although the production and use of the commercial amphibole asbestos minerals—grunerite (amosite) and riebeckite (crocidolite)—have been almost completely eliminated from world commerce, special opportunities for potentially significant exposures remain. Commercially viable deposits of grunerite asbestos are very rare, but it can occur as a gangue mineral in a limited part of a mine otherwise thought asbestos-free. This report describes such a situation, in which a very localized seam of grunerite asbestos was identified in an iron ore mine. The geological occurrence of the seam in the ore body is described, as well as the mineralogical character of the grunerite asbestos. The most relevant epidemiological studies of workers exposed to grunerite asbestos are used to gauge the hazards associated with the inhalation of this fibrous mineral. Both analytical transmission electron microscopy and phase-contrast optical microscopy were used to quantify the fibers present in the air during mining in the area with outcroppings of grunerite asbestos. Analytical transmission electron microscopy and continuous-scan x-ray diffraction were used to determine the type of asbestos fiber present. Knowing the level of the miner’s exposures, we carried out a risk assessment by using a model developed for the Environmental Protection Agency.

Characterization and Degradation of Fatty Acid Methyl Esters and Biodiesel in Artificial Seawater Under UV Exposure Using Raman Spectroscopy

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Distribution of major health risks: findings from the global burden of disease study

Background Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. Methods and Findings For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. Conclusions Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.

Urinary excretion of cadmium among Torres Strait Islanders (Australia) at risk of elevated dietary exposure through traditional foods

This study explored urinary cadmium levels among Torres Strait Islanders in response to concerns about potential health impact of high levels of cadmium in some traditional seafood (dugong and turtle liver and kidney). Cadmium levels were measured by inductively coupled mass spectrometry in de-identified urine samples collected during general screening programs in 1996 in two communities with varying dugong and turtle catch statistics. Statistical analysis was performed to identify links between cadmium levels and demographic and background health information. Geometric mean cadmium level among the sample group was 0.83 mu g/g creatinine with 12% containing over 2 mu g/g creatinine. Cadmium level was most strongly associated with age (46% of variation), followed by sex (females > males, 7%) and current smoking status (smokers > non-smokers, 4.7%). Adjusting model conditions suggested further positive associations between cadmium level and diabetes (p = 0.05) and residence in the predicted higher exposure community (p = 0.07). Positive correlations between cadmium and body fat in bivariate analysis were eliminated by control for age and sex. This study found only suggestive differences in cadmium levels between two communities with predicted variation in exposure from traditional foods. However, the data indicate that factors linked with higher cadmium accumulation overlap with those of renal disease risk (i.e. older, females, smokers, diabetes) and suggest that levels may be sufficient to contribute to renal pathology. More direct assessment of exposure and health risks of cadmium to Torres Strait Islanders is needed given the disproportionate level of diet-related disease and the cultural importance of dugong and turtle. This study highlights the need to consider social and cultural variation in exposure and to de. ne "safe'' cadmium levels during diabetes given its rising global prevalence.

Feel it and deal with it: mental health practitioners' experiences of exposure to the trauma of survivor clients

Empathic engagement by the trauma therapist with another person's traumatic experiences is believed to create risks for the helping professional. Much attention has been focused upon the mental health professional experiencing symptoms of distress as a result of their exposure to the material of clients who survive traumatic incidents. This thesis contains the findings of a qualitative study that centres on a group of male mental health professionals and their experiences of exposure to the trauma material of survivor clients. The participants of the study practise within an internal Employee Assistance Program that provides, among other duties, a 24 hour, 7 day response to critical incidents to a heavy transport industry. Using semi-structured, in-depth interviews, the effects on the trauma therapists are explored by analysing their reactions to their survivor clients' accounts, the impact of these experiences upon their psychological schema, the organisational culture in which they practise and its influence upon their experiences and the methods participants use to cope with the psychological effects of exposure to trauma material. Participants' experiences are closely examined for critical comparisons with vicarious traumatization. Therapists' responses reveal their continued ability and motivation to empathically engage with the trauma material of survivor clients despite the potential risks.