Improving accuracy and intelligibility of decisions

Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.

Enhanced J-protein interaction and compromised protein stability of mtHsp70 variants lead to mitochondrial dysfunction in Parkinsons disease

Parkinsons disease (PD) is the second most prevalent progressive neurological disorder commonly associated with impaired mitochondrial function in dopaminergic neurons. Although familial PD is multifactorial in nature, a recent genetic screen involving PD patients identified two mitochondrial Hsp70 variants (P509S and R126W) that are suggested in PD pathogenesis. However, molecular mechanisms underlying how mtHsp70 PD variants are centrally involved in PD progression is totally elusive. In this article, we provide mechanistic insights into the mitochondrial dysfunction associated with human mtHsp70 PD variants. Biochemically, the R126W variant showed severely compromised protein stability and was found highly susceptible to aggregation at physiological conditions. Strikingly, on the other hand, the P509S variant exhibits significantly enhanced interaction with J-protein cochaperones involved in folding and import machinery, thus altering the overall regulation of chaperone-mediated folding cycle and protein homeostasis. To assess the impact of mtHsp70 PD mutations at the cellular level, we developed yeast as a model system by making analogous mutations in Ssc1 ortholog. Interestingly, PD mutations in yeast (R103W and P486S) exhibit multiple in vivo phenotypes, which are associated with omitochondrial dysfunction', including compromised growth, impairment in protein translocation, reduced functional mitochondrial mass, mitochondrial DNA loss, respiratory incompetency and increased susceptibility to oxidative stress. In addition to that, R103W protein is prone to aggregate in vivo due to reduced stability, whereas P486S showed enhanced interaction with J-proteins, thus remarkably recapitulating the cellular defects that are observed in human PD variants. Taken together, our findings provide evidence in favor of direct involvement of mtHsp70 as a susceptibility factor in PD.

History of whaling in and near North Carolina

This study aims to reconstruct the history of shore whaling in the southeastern United States, emphasizing statistics on the catch of right whales, Eubalaena glacialis, the preferred targets. The earliest record of whaling in North Carolina is of a proposed voyage from New York in 1667. Early settlers on the Outer Banks utilized whale strandings by trying out the blubber of carcasses that came ashore, and some whale oil was exported from the 1660s onward. New England whalemen whaled along the North Carolina coast during the 1720s, and possibly earlier. As some of the whalemen from the northern colonies moved to Nortb Carolina, a shore-based whale fishery developed. This activity apparently continued without interruption until the War of Independence in 1776, and continued or was reestablished after the war. The methods and techniques of the North Carolina shore whalers changed slowly: as late as the 1890s they used a drogue at the end of the harpoon line and refrained from staying fast to the harpooned whale, they seldom employed harpoon guns, and then only during the waning years of the fishery. The whaling season extended from late December to May, most successfully between February and May. Whalers believed they were intercepting whales migrating north along the coast. Although some whaling occurred as far north as Cape Hatteras, it centered on the outer coasts of Core, Shackleford, and Bogue banks, particularly near Cape Lookout. The capture of whales other than right whales was a rare event. The number of boat crews probably remained fairly stable during much of the 19th century, with some increase in effort in the late 1870s and early 1880s when numbers of boat crews reached 12 to 18. Then by the late 1880s and 1890s only about 6 crews were active. North Carolina whaling had become desultory by the early 1900s, and ended completely in 1917. Judging by export and tax records, some ocean-going vessels made good catches off this coast in about 1715-30, including an estimated 13 whales in 1719, 15 in one year during the early 1720s, 5-6 in a three-year period of the mid to late 1720s, 8 by one ship's crew in 1727, 17 by one group of whalers in 1728-29, and 8-9 by two boats working from Ocracoke prior to 1730. It is impossible to know how representative these fragmentary records are for the period as a whole. The Carolina coast declined in importance as a cruising ground for pelagic whalers by the 1740s or 1750s. Thereafter, shore whaling probably accounted for most of the (poorly documented) catch. Lifetime catches by individual whalemen on Shackleford Banks suggest that the average annual catch was at least one to two whales during 1830·80, perhaps about four during the late 1870s and early 1880s, and declining to about one by the late 1880s. Data are insufficient to estimate the hunting loss rate in the Outer Banks whale fishery. North Carolina is the only state south of New Jersey known to have had a long and well established shore whaling industry. Some whaling took place in Chesapeake Bay and along the coast of Virginia during the late 17th and early 18th centuries, but it is poorly documented. Most of the rigbt whales taken off South Carolina, Georgia, and northern Florida during the 19th century were killed by pelagic whalers. Florida is the only southeastern state with evidence of an aboriginal (pre-contact) whale fishery. Right whale calves may have been among the aboriginal whalers' principal targets. (PDF file contains 34 pages.)

Fluxo de carbono orgânico particulado e dissolvido no estuário do rio Barra Grande em Vila Dois Rios, Ilha Grande, RJ.

Os estuários são ambientes costeiros semifechados, que atuam como um sítio de troca de água e de matéria. De acordo com suas características, estuários podem exportar ou importar matéria orgânica (MO). A MO é um complexo bioquímico formado por diversos compostos orgânicos, e sua quantificação é normalmente traduzida pela quantidade de carbono orgânico total (COT), seu elemento mais abundante, tanto na forma de carbono orgânico dissolvido (COD), quanto carbono orgânico particulado (COP). Determinar a origem do carbono orgânico pode auxiliar na compreensão da dinâmica da MO, podendo ser feita com auxílio de isótopos estáveis de carbono (13C) e de nitrogênio (15N). Vila Dois Rios, é um vilarejo localizado ao sul da Ilha Grande, onde se localiza o rio Barra Grande, que possui pouca intervenção antrópica. Esse é um rio de porte pequeno, com uma mata ciliar bem preservada, representada por espécies de Mata Atlântica, com presença de manguezal, ao lado está localizado o Centro de Estudos Ambientais e Desenvolvimento Sustentável (CEADS). Foram realizadas amostragens sazonais, todas em maré de sizígia, ao longo do ano de 2012, totalizando quatro coletas trimestrais. Todas as campanhas ocorreram em uma estação fixa, na foz do rio Barra Grande. A amostragem de água foi realizada em duas profundidades, superfície e fundo, coletadas em intervalos de 30 minutos, ao longo de 25 horas, para as seguintes determinações: carbono orgânico particulado (COP), carbono orgânico dissolvido (COD) e isótopos estáveis de carbono (13C) e de nitrogênio (15N). Concomitantemente, foram medidos in situ: pH, salinidade, temperatura, oxigênio dissolvido (OD), profundidade do Disco de Secchi e medidas de fluxo. Ao fim da amostragem na Ilha Grande, o material coletado foi transportado para o Laboratório de Geoquímica Orgânica Marinha (LaGOM), na UERJ, onde foi analisado posteriormente. Durante todas as campanhas, foi observada uma maré mista, predominantemente semidiurna com desigualdade. Os resultados de temperatura e salinidade evidenciaram uma estratificação vertical em todas as campanhas. Os valores medianos de MPS foram sempre maiores no fundo em relação às amostras coletadas na superfície. O carbono orgânico apresentou maiores concentrações sob a forma dissolvida do que na particulada, variando entre as profundidades e as campanhas, sendo observadas maiores concentrações medianas, tanto de COD quanto de COP, em superfície e no fundo, na campanha de verão. As concentrações medianas de Nt observadas ao longo das três campanhas foram baixas, estando relacionadas às baixas concentrações de COP. A razão molar C/N e as isotópicas indicaram que o manguezal demonstrou ser a fonte mais abundante de COP nesse estuário. Os cálculos de fluxo indicaram que o estuário tanto importou, quanto exportou material, e apenas o COD foi importado em todas as campanhas.

Status of fish broodstock management and seed production in Bangladesh

The study was conducted with the broad objectives to assess the existing situation of broodstock management and fish seed production in private fish seed farms in Bangladesh. The data were collected from 100 private hatcheries and 40 nurseries in seven upazilas under four districts. There was no shed in forty hatcheries and the owners faced many problems. Brood fish ponds were found suitable for rearing brood fish. About 66% of the hatchery owners collected brood fish from their own ponds and ponds of neighboring areas. Activities like pond preparation; manuring and supplementary feeding were done properly but stocking density of brood fish in 76% of the hatcheries was 3,000-7,000 kg/ha. Infection of argulosis was found in brood fish of 87% of the hatcheries. About 67% of the hatchery owners practiced inter-species crossing. Major problems faced by the hatchery owners were argulosis of brood fish, unavailability of pure brood stock, inadequate brood fish pond. The hatchery owners were found interested to find out the preventive measures of argulosis, develop pure brood stock of indigenous carp and import pure strain of exotic carp. According to the nursery operators, they cultivated hybrid fry because of high demand, rapid growth and good taste. Problems of using hatchery spawn as mentioned by the nursery operators were inbreeding, under sized and aged brood stock, stunted growth, physical deformities and high mortality of spawn due to unknown causes.

The Viking age glass beads of Ireland and their North Atlantic context

Hitherto, the majority of studies which have included the discussion of Viking glass beads have mainly focused on the assemblages from individual sites, with limited use of known parallels. Exceptions to this include recent publications regarding the Icelandic material and Callmer’s 1977 catalogue of the finds from mainland Scandinavia, now over thirty years old. Analysis of these finds from Ireland was, for the most part, non-existent. The aim of this research is to address this lack of analysis within Ireland, while incorporating the wider context of the beads within the Viking North Atlantic. The research thus examines the use of glass beads of diagnostically Scandinavian manufacture and import found in Ireland, particularly in relation to their context and distribution. The history of research from Ireland as well as from across the Viking world is considered and explored throughout the thesis, with critique of methods and discussions used. Focussed analysis of both published and unpublished material detailing artefacts from Scandinavia (especially Vestfold), Britain, Iceland, the Faroe Islands and L’Anse aux Meadows is presented within the thesis in order to provide the greater picture for the core section of the thesis, the glass beads found in Ireland. Three appendices are included within Volume 2, databases of the glass beads under discussion from Ireland, the Vestfold region graves in Norway and the topsoil finds from the Kaupang trading place, also located within Vestfold. These appendices therefore represent the first-hand analysis of glass beads by the author. In total, this research represents the most up-to-date analysis of Viking glass beads from Ireland and presents a new look at the patterns of use, trade and interpersonal contact that affected the everyday lives of individuals living within Viking Age Ireland.

Coupled synthesis and translocation restrains polyphosphate to acidocalcisome-like vacuoles and prevents its toxicity.

Eukaryotes contain inorganic polyphosphate (polyP) and acidocalcisomes, which sequester polyP and store amino acids and divalent cations. Why polyP is sequestered in dedicated organelles is not known. We show that polyP produced in the cytosol of yeast becomes toxic. Reconstitution of polyP translocation with purified vacuoles, the acidocalcisomes of yeast, shows that cytosolic polyP cannot be imported, whereas polyP produced by the vacuolar transporter chaperone (VTC) complex, an endogenous vacuolar polyP polymerase, is efficiently imported and does not interfere with growth. PolyP synthesis and import require an electrochemical gradient, probably as a driving force for polyP translocation. VTC exposes its catalytic domain to the cytosol and carries nine vacuolar transmembrane domains. Mutations in the VTC transmembrane regions, which are likely to constitute the translocation channel, block not only polyP translocation but also synthesis. Given that they are far from the cytosolic catalytic domain of VTC, this suggests that the VTC complex obligatorily couples synthesis of polyP to its import in order to avoid toxic intermediates in the cytosol. Sequestration of otherwise toxic polyP might be one reason for the existence of acidocalcisomes in eukaryotes.

A relationship between photosynthesis and translocation in plants stressed by ionizing radiation

Since previous investigations have shown that low levels of ionizing radiation can induce a reduction in the rates of apparent photosynthesis and in the magnitude of photoassimilated l4C exported out of a leaf, the present studies were designed and conducted to determine the relationship, if any, between the radiation effects on these two physiological processes. The experiments were particularly designed to determine if the radiation-induced reduction in export is the result of the reduction in photosynthesis and hence availability of materials for translocation or the result of a reduction in the amount of energy available for the vein loading process. This study has shown that the radiation-induced reduction in l4C export out of a leaf is likely related to a loss of energy available for the vein loading process rather than a reduction in the supply of materials available for export due to reduced C02 uptake. The process of photophosphorylation was shown to be reduced by exposure to radiation to an extent similar to the reduction in the export of l4C which was also observed. Both of these processes returned to their pre-irradiation rates 120 minutes following radiatruon exposure. The rate of photosynthetic C02 uptake was also reduced by radiation exposur~ howeve~ this process did not return to the control level nor was the extent of reduction as large as observed for photophosphorylation and photoassimilate export. The observed relationship between the reductions of export and photoph~sphorylation pointed to the utilization of photosynthetically produced ATP in the vein loading process. The radiation-induced reduction in the export of l4C was observed at the highest light intensity used in this study which would also imply the involvement of the photophosphorylation process as an energy seurce for vein loading. The lack of radiation-induced reduction in export at low light intensities was interpreted as being due to the utilization of respiratory derived ATP, a process known to be insensitive to radiation at the levels used in this study, as the energy source for the vein loading process. Studies using plants not stressed by radiation showed that there was an increase in export of 14C with higher light intensities. In summary, the data has been interpreted as showing that at high light intensities the ATP, produced by photophosphorylation, is available for use in the vein loading process. The site of ATP utilization could not be determined from the data obtained in this study but possible sites have been indicated from the work done by other physiologists and are discussed in the thesis.

Essays in International Trade

Dans ma thèse doctorale, j'étudie trois facteurs importants qui caractérisent le commerce international : les différences technologiques entre les pays, les barrières à l'entrée sous la forme de coûts fixes et la migration internationale. Le premier chapitre analyse si les différences technologiques entre les pays peuvent expliquer la spécialisation dans le commerce international entre les pays. Pour mesurer le niveau de la spécialisation, je calcule les index de concentration pour la valeur des importations et des exportations et décompose la concentration totale dans la marge de produits extensive (nombre de produits commercialisés) et la marge de produits intensive (volume de produits commercialisés). En utilisant des données commerciales détaillées au niveau du produit dans 160 pays, mes résultats montrent que les exportations sont plus concentrées que les importations, que la spécialisation se produit principalement au niveau de la marge intensive du produit, et que les économies plus grandes disposent d'importations et d'exportations plus diversifiées, car elles commercialisent plus de produits. Compte tenu de ces faits, j'évalue la capacité du modèle Eaton-Kortum, le principal modèle de la théorie ricardienne du commerce, pour représenter les preuves empiriques. Les résultats montrent que la spécialisation à travers l'avantage comparatif induit par les différences de technologie peut expliquer les faits qualitatifs et quantitatifs. De plus, j'évalue le rôle des déterminants clés de la spécialisation : le degré de l'avantage comparatif, l'élasticité de la substitution et la géographie. Une implication de ces résultats est qu'il est important d’évaluer jusqu'à quel point la volatilité de production mesurée par la volatilité du PIB est motivée par la spécialisation des exportations et des importations. Étant donné le compromis entre l'ouverture du commerce et la volatilité de production, les bénéfices tirés du commerce peuvent s'avérer plus faibles que ceux estimés précédemment. Par conséquent, les politiques commerciales alternatives telles que l'ouverture graduelle au commerce combinée à la diversification de la production pour réduire la concentration de l'exportation peuvent se révéler être une meilleure stratégie que l'approche du laissez-faire. En utilisant la relation entre la taille du marché et l’entrée de firmes et produits, le deuxième chapitre évalue si les barrières à l'entrée sous la forme de coûts fixes à exporter sont au niveau de la firme ou au niveau du produit. Si les coûts fixes se trouvent au niveau de la firme, la firme multiproduits a un avantage de coût de production par rapport aux autres firmes parce qu’elles peuvent diviser les coûts fixes sur plusieurs produits. Dans ce cas, le commerce international sera caractérisé par peu de firmes qui exportent beaucoup des produits. Si les coûts fixes sont au niveau du produit, l’entrée d’un produit est associée avec l’entrée de plusieurs firmes. La raison est qu’une fois que la première firme entre et paye les coûts fixes du produit, elle crée un effet d’entrainement qui réduit les coûts fixes pour des firmes rivales. Dans ce cas, le commerce international sera caractérisé par plusieurs firmes qui vendent des variétés différentes du même produit. En utilisant des données détaillées provenant de 40 pays exportateurs à travers 180 marchés de destination, mes résultats montrent que les barrières à l'entrée se trouvent principalement au niveau du produit. Un marché plus large favorise l'expansion d'un plus grand nombre d’entreprises au sein d'une catégorie de produit plutôt que de permettre aux entreprises produisant plusieurs produits de croître dans une gamme de produits. En regardant la différence entre le nombre d'exportateurs au sein d'une catégorie de produit dans des destinations données, je trouve que le taux d'entrée de firmes augmente significativement après qu'un produit entre la première fois dans le marché. J'en déduis donc que le premier entrant réduit les coûts fixes pour les firmes suivantes. Mes recherches démontrent également que malgré une plus grande compétition sur le marché du produit, les entreprises disposent de revenus d'exportation supérieurs et sont plus susceptibles de rester sur les marchés internationaux. Ces résultats sont cohérents avec l’hypothèse que l’effet d’entrainement incite l'entrée de firmes rivales et permettent aux entreprises de produire à plus grande échelle. Cette recherche dévoile un nombre de conclusions importantes. D'abord, les politiques commerciales encouragent l'entrée de nouveaux produits, par exemple, en promouvant des produits dans les marchés de destination entraînant ainsi des retombées qui se traduiront par un taux de participation plus élevé de l'entreprise et une croissance de l'exportation. Deuxièmement, les consommateurs du pays importateur peuvent bénéficier de prix plus bas pour le produit en réduisant les barrières techniques du commerce. Troisièmement, lorsque l'on effectue des expérimentations politiques sous la forme de réduction des coûts commerciaux, il est de coutume de considérer uniquement une baisse des coûts marginaux et d'évaluer les répercussions sur le bien-être du consommateur. Cependant, un élément important des accords commerciaux est la réduction des barrières techniques au commerce grâce à la négociation de normes communes pour un produit. Négliger l'existence des barrières à l'entrée et les conséquences des réaffectations de l'industrie affaiblit l'impact des réformes commerciales. Le troisième chapitre prend en compte le rôle de l'information dans la facilitation du commerce international. Les immigrants réduisent les coûts de transaction dans le commerce international en fournissant des informations sur les possibilités d'échange avec leur pays d'origine. En utilisant des données géographiques détaillées sur l'immigration et les importations aux États-Unis entre 1970 et 2005, je quantifie l'incidence qu'ont les nouveaux immigrants sur la demande pour les importations de biens intermédiaires aux États-Unis. Pour établir le lien cause à effet entre le commerce et la migration, j’exploite l'important afflux d'immigrants d'Amérique centrale après l'ouragan Mitch. Les résultats montrent que l'augmentation de dix pour cent d'immigrants a fait croître la demande pour les importations de biens intermédiaires de 1,5 pour cent. Mes résultats sont robustes aux problèmes de la causalité inverse ou la décision d’émigrer est causée par des opportunités de faire du commerce.

Thanatos empresarial : prolegómenos y causas

Este trabajo de investigación se diseño con base en una lista de empresas que fue entregada por la Superintendencia de Sociedades, conforme a este listado se filtraron la empresas que pertenecían al sector de Servicios, Minería y los ND que hayan entrado en el proceso de liquidación obligatoria. De esta manera se determino que la muestra serian las empresas pertenecientes a los sectores antes mencionados pero que hayan realizado procesos de exportación o importación; por ultimo en la investigación se analizo el caso en particular de la empresa Refinare S.A. única refinería privada del país, donde se podrá ver detalladamente las implicaciones que tuvo a causa del proceso de Liquidación obligatoria por el que atravesó. Encontraremos una breve descripción del sector minero, sector al cual fue enfocada la siguiente investigación; un panorama de como era el patrón de comportamiento de la empresa a nivel gerencial y de que manera estratégicamente este era usado. En segundo lugar, se desplegara la información detallada sobre la empresa seleccionada de la muestra, datos como procesos y niveles de producción, infraestructura, los principales productos y estados financieros.

Trade diversification in Colombia, 1991-2011

We describe the evolution of international trade and the behavior of export diversification in Colombia during the period 1991-2011. For measuring trade diversification and following up its behavior along the period, we employ alternative ways of decomposing trade flows along its intensive and extensive margins, using the latter as a measure of diversification. Results indicate that, in the short run, trade diversification in Colombia can be characterized as weak but that there is a modest trend for an increase in its importance. With some differences in degree, for both exports and imports, the number of partner countries increases faster than the number of products contained in the average basket traded and, simultaneously, the number of traded products increases faster than the average number of countries with which they are traded. Hence, trade diversification in Colombia seems to follow a pattern that implies that trade with new partners tends to be relatively slowly populated in terms of products or, from the opposite point of view, trade of new products is relatively sluggish in extending to new partner countries

Biofuel policies in the EU, US and Brazil

The development of biofuels has been one of the most visible and controversial manifestations of the use of biomass for energy. Biofuels policies in the EU, US and Brazil have been particularly important for the development of the industry in these three important markets. All three have used a variety of measures, including consumption or use mandates, tax incentives and import protection to promote the production and use of biofuels. Despite this, it is uncertain whether the EU will achieve its objective of a 10 per cent share for renewables in transport fuels by 2020. The US is also running into difficulties in meeting consumption mandates for biofuels. Questions are being raised about the continuation of tax credits and import protection. Brazil has liberalised its domestic ethanol market and adopted a more market-oriented approach to biofuels policy, but the management of domestic petroleum prices and the inter-relationship between the sugar market and ethanol production are important factors affecting domestic consumption and exports. In both the EU and the US an ongoing debate about the benefits of reliance on biofuels derived from food crops and concern about the efficacy of current biofuels policies may put their future in doubt.

British public policy and multinationals during the “Dollar Gap” era, 1945–1960

This article examines the role of British exchange and import controls in stimulating the dramatic increase in overseas (particularly American) multinationals in Britain from the end of the Second World War to the late 1950s, together with the ways in which the government used controls to regulate the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow. Exchange controls were both an important stimulus to inward investment and a powerful and flexible means of regulating its volume and character. Government was relatively successful in using these powers to maximize the dollar balance and industrial benefits of FDI to Britain, given initially severe dollar and capacity constraints, and in liberalizing policy once these constraints receded and competition from other FDI hosts intensified.

A comparison of models for estimating the riverine export of nitrogen from large watersheds

We evaluated the accuracy of six watershed models of nitrogen export in streams (kg km2 yr−1) developed for use in large watersheds and representing various empirical and quasi-empirical approaches described in the literature. These models differ in their methods of calibration and have varying levels of spatial resolution and process complexity, which potentially affect the accuracy (bias and precision) of the model predictions of nitrogen export and source contributions to export. Using stream monitoring data and detailed estimates of the natural and cultural sources of nitrogen for 16 watersheds in the northeastern United States (drainage sizes = 475 to 70,000 km2), we assessed the accuracy of the model predictions of total nitrogen and nitrate-nitrogen export. The model validation included the use of an error modeling technique to identify biases caused by model deficiencies in quantifying nitrogen sources and biogeochemical processes affecting the transport of nitrogen in watersheds. Most models predicted stream nitrogen export to within 50% of the measured export in a majority of the watersheds. Prediction errors were negatively correlated with cultivated land area, indicating that the watershed models tended to over predict export in less agricultural and more forested watersheds and under predict in more agricultural basins. The magnitude of these biases differed appreciably among the models. Those models having more detailed descriptions of nitrogen sources, land and water attenuation of nitrogen, and water flow paths were found to have considerably lower bias and higher precision in their predictions of nitrogen export.

Phosphorus loss from agricultural catchments: pathways and implications for management

The contribution non-point P sources make to the total P loading on water bodies in agricultural catchments has not been fully appreciated. Using data derived from plot scale experimental studies, and modelling approaches developed to simulate system behaviour under differing management scenarios, a fuller understanding of the processes controlling P export and transformations along non-point transport pathways can be achieved. One modelling approach which has been successfully applied to large UK catchments (50-350km2 in area) is applied here to a small, 1.5 km2 experimental catchment. The importance of scaling is discussed in the context of how such approaches can extrapolate the results from plot-scale experimental studies to full catchment scale. However, the scope of such models is limited, since they do not at present directly simulate the processes controlling P transport and transformation dynamics. As such, they can only simulate total P export on an annual basis, and are not capable of prediction over shorter time scales. The need for development of process-based models to help answer these questions, and for more comprehensive UK experimental studies is highlighted as a pre-requisite for the development of suitable and sustainable management strategies to reduce non-point P loading on water bodies in agricultural catchments.