Leprosy reactions: the effect of gender and household contacts

Various host-related factors have been reported as relevant risk factors for leprosy reactions. To support a new hypothesis that an antigenic load in local tissues that is sufficient to trigger the immune response may come from an external supply of Mycobacterium leprae organisms, the prevalence of reactional leprosy was assessed against the number of household contacts. The number of contacts was ascertained at diagnosis in leprosy patients coming from an endemic area of Brazil. The prevalence of reactions (patients with reactions/total patients) was fitted by binomial regression and the risk difference (RD) was estimated with a semi-robust estimation of variance as a measure of effect. Five regression models were fitted. Model 1 included only the main exposure variable "number of household contacts"; model 2 included all four explanatory variables ("contacts", "fertile age", "number of skin lesions" and "bacillary index") that were found to be associated with the outcome upon univariate analysis; models 3-5 contained various combinations of three predictors. Male and female patients were analyzed separately. In females, household contacts were a significant predictor for leprosy reactions in model 1 [crude RD = 0.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.01; 0.12] and model 5 (RD = 0.05; CI = 0.02; 0.09), which included contacts, bacillary index and skin lesions as predictors. Other models were unsatisfactory because the joint presence of fertile age and bacillary index was a likely source of multicollinearity. No significant results were obtained for males. The likely interpretation of our findings might suggest that in female patients, leprosy reactions may be triggered by an external spreading of M. leprae by healthy carrier family members. The small number of observations is an obvious limitation of our study which requires larger confirmatory studies.

Explaining Fiscal Balances with a Simultaneous Equation Model of Revenue and Expenditure : A Case Study of Swiss Cantons Using Panel Data

Empirical literature on the analysis of the efficiency of measures for reducing persistent government deficits has mainly focused on the direct explanation of deficit. By contrast, this paper aims at modeling government revenue and expenditure within a simultaneous framework and deriving the fiscal balance (surplus or deficit) equation as the difference between the two variables. This setting enables one to not only judge how relevant the explanatory variables are in explaining the fiscal balance but also understand their impact on revenue and/or expenditure. Our empirical results, obtained by using a panel data set on Swiss Cantons for the period 1980-2002, confirm the relevance of the approach followed here, by providing unambiguous evidence of a simultaneous relationship between revenue and expenditure. They also reveal strong dynamic components in revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance. Among the significant determinants of public fiscal balance we not only find the usual business cycle elements, but also and more importantly institutional factors such as the number of administrative units, and the ease with which people can resort to political (direct democracy) instruments, such as public initiatives and referendum.

Social inequalities and mortality in Europe-results from a large multi-national cohort

BACKGROUND Socio-economic inequalities in mortality are observed at the country level in both North America and Europe. The purpose of this work is to investigate the contribution of specific risk factors to social inequalities in cause-specific mortality using a large multi-country cohort of Europeans. METHODS A total of 3,456,689 person/years follow-up of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) was analysed. Educational level of subjects coming from 9 European countries was recorded as proxy for socio-economic status (SES). Cox proportional hazard model's with a step-wise inclusion of explanatory variables were used to explore the association between SES and mortality; a Relative Index of Inequality (RII) was calculated as measure of relative inequality. RESULTS Total mortality among men with the highest education level is reduced by 43% compared to men with the lowest (HR 0.57, 95% C.I. 0.52-0.61); among women by 29% (HR 0.71, 95% C.I. 0.64-0.78). The risk reduction was attenuated by 7% in men and 3% in women by the introduction of smoking and to a lesser extent (2% in men and 3% in women) by introducing body mass index and additional explanatory variables (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake) (3% in men and 5% in women). Social inequalities were highly statistically significant for all causes of death examined in men. In women, social inequalities were less strong, but statistically significant for all causes of death except for cancer-related mortality and injuries. DISCUSSION In this European study, substantial social inequalities in mortality among European men and women which cannot be fully explained away by accounting for known common risk factors for chronic diseases are reported.

Regional Determinants of Firm Entry in a Developing Country

Regional policies aiming to attract new firms are largely based on evidence that originates from Europe, the USA and Japan. This may raise doubts about the usefulness of such policies when applied to developing economies. This paper addresses this issue by providing estimates of the determinants of firm entry in the Argentinean provinces. We find that most of the determinants used in previous studies analysing developed countries are still relevant. However, there is a need for additional explanatory variables that reflect the specificities of developing economies. Key words: firm entry, regional economics, Argentina. JEL: R12; R30; C33

Role of Age and Sex in the Diagnosis of Early-stage Malignant Melanoma: A Cross-Sectional study.

Age and sex have been identified as predictors of outcome in malignant melanoma (MM). This aim of this multicentre, cross-sectional study was to analyse the role of age and sex as explanatory variables for the diagnosis of thin MM. A total of 2430 patients with MM were recruited. Cases of in situ-T1 MM were more frequent than T2-T4 MM (56.26% vs. 43.74%). Breslow thickness increased throughout decades of life (analysis of variance (ANOVA) p < 0.001), with a weak correlation between Breslow thickness and patient's age (r   = 0.202, p < 0.001). Breslow thickness was significantly less in women (1.79 vs. 2.38 mm, p = 0.0001). Binary logistic regression showed a significant (p < 0.001) odds ratio for age 0-29 years (1.18), and 30-59 years (1.16), and for women (1.09). Age and sex explained 3.64% of the variation observed in Tis-T1 frequency (R2 = 0.0364). Age and sex appear to explain a low percentage of the variation in the early detection of MM.

Networks of PhD Students and Academic Performance: A Comparison across Countries

In this article we compare regression models obtained to predict PhD students’ academic performance in the universities of Girona (Spain) and Slovenia. Explanatory variables are characteristics of PhD student’s research group understood as an egocentered social network, background and attitudinal characteristics of the PhD students and some characteristics of the supervisors. Academic performance was measured by the weighted number of publications. Two web questionnaires were designed, one for PhD students and one for their supervisors and other research group members. Most of the variables were easily comparable across universities due to the careful translation procedure and pre-tests. When direct comparison was notpossible we created comparable indicators. We used a regression model in which the country was introduced as a dummy coded variable including all possible interaction effects. The optimal transformations of the main and interaction variables are discussed. Some differences between Slovenian and Girona universities emerge. Some variables like supervisor’s performance and motivation for autonomy prior to starting the PhD have the same positive effect on the PhD student’s performance in both countries. On the other hand, variables like too close supervision by the supervisor and having children have a negative influence in both countries. However, we find differences between countries when we observe the motivation for research prior to starting the PhD which increases performance in Slovenia but not in Girona. As regards network variables, frequency of supervisor advice increases performance in Slovenia and decreases it in Girona. The negative effect in Girona could be explained by the fact that additional contacts of the PhD student with his/her supervisor might indicate a higher workload in addition to or instead of a better advice about the dissertation. The number of external student’s advice relationships and social support mean contact intensity are not significant in Girona, but they have a negative effect in Slovenia. We might explain the negative effect of external advice relationships in Slovenia by saying that a lot of external advice may actually result from a lack of the more relevant internal advice

Les cadres scolaires souhaitent plus d'autonomie qu'ils pensent en avoir : une analyse de la situation en Suisse romande

De manière générale, l'autonomie des établissements de formation influence positivement la performance scolaire. Une enquête réalisée en Suisse romande auprès de 219 cadres scolaires permet, dans la présente contribution, de mesurer l'écart existant entre le degré d'autonomie souhaitée par les cadres scolaires d'une part et le degré d'autonomie dont ils disent disposer d'autre part. Le traitement descriptif des données de l'enquête démontre que, dans tous les domaines de gestion, les cadres scolaires souhaitent disposer de plus d'autonomie qu'ils n'en perçoivent. Ce constat est valable dans tous les cantons, tous les degrés du système éducatif et toutes les fonctions. Le degré d'autonomie souhaitée ne varie que peu selon les cantons, les degrés ou les fonctions. Sur cette base, il n'est pas possible de conclure à la nécessité ou à la pertinence d'un degré d'autonomie différenciée selon les cantons, les degrés ou les fonctions. Le traitement analytique des données de l'enquête identifie les facteurs expliquant l'écart entre les degrés d'autonomie souhaitée et perçue. Cet écart est plus élevé que la moyenne dans les cantons de Fribourg et de Genève, dans le degré primaire et dans la fonction de directeur. En d'autres termes, l'adéquation entre les degrés d'autonomie souhaitée et perçue est moins bonne dans ces cantons, ce degré et cette fonction. Un rattrapage en matière de délégation d'autonomie est dès lors possible. La reconnaissance, à l'intérieur de l'établissement, d'une faculté de conduite et de pilotage à la direction exerce un effet positif sur le degré d'autonomie souhaitée et un effet positif plus important encore sur le degré perçu. Par conséquent, il apparaît qu'une direction dont la faculté de conduite est avérée souhaite non seulement disposer de plus d'autonomie mais parvienne à obtenir (ou à « gagner ») plus d'autonomie. Abstract School autonomy has a positive influence on pupils' performance. This article presents the results of a survey conducted in the French-speaking part of Switzerland on 219 school leaders. The objective of the survey is to measure and to explain the gap between the level of autonomy desired by school leaders, and the level of autonomy that they perceive. Descriptive statistics show that, in every single management area, school leaders wish to have more autonomy than they actually have. This result is valid in all cantons, all levels of the education system and all types of job. The desired level of autonomy varies only slightly depending on the cantons, the levels of the education system and the types of job. On this basis, it is not possible to conclude that it is necessary and relevant to differentiate the level of autonomy depending on the cantons, the levels of the education system and the types of job. Analytical statistics identify the explanatory variables of the gap between the desired level of autonomy and the perceived level of autonomy. This gap is higher than average in the cantons of Fribourg and Geneva, in the primary level of education and in the position of head-teacher. In other words, the adequacy between the desired and the perceived levels of autonomy is worse in these cantons, this level and this position. As a result, a catch-up on the delegation of school autonomy is possible. Results also show that school leaders, whose management competence is recognized by its staff, not only want more autonomy but succeed in securing (or "gaining") more autonomy.

The building blocks of international ecological footprint inequality: a regression-based decomposition

This paper performs an empirical Decomposition of International Inequality in Ecological Footprint in order to quantify to what extent explanatory variables such as a country’s affluence, economic structure, demographic characteristics, climate and technology contributed to international differences in terms of natural resource consumption during the period 1993-2007. We use a Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition approach. As a result, the methodology extends qualitatively the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions as it comprehends further social dimensions of the Sustainable Development concept, i.e. equity within generations. The results obtained point to prioritizing policies that take into account both future and present generations.

The Building Blocks of International Ecological Footprint inequality: A Regression-Base Decomposition

This paper performs an empirical Decomposition of International Inequality in Ecological Footprint in order to quantify to what extent explanatory variables such as a country’s affluence, economic structure, demographic characteristics, climate and technology contributed to international differences in terms of natural resource consumption during the period 1993-2007. We use a Regression- Based Inequality Decomposition approach. As a result, the methodology extends qualitatively the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions as it comprehends further social dimensions of the Sustainable Development concept, i.e. equity within generations. The results obtained point to prioritizing policies that take into account both future and present generations. Keywords: Ecological Footprint Inequality, Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition, Intragenerational equity, Sustainable development.

Life-Cycle Effects on Household Expenditures: A Latent-Variable Approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life- cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Experimental design on the simplex

Optimum experimental designs depend on the design criterion, the model andthe design region. The talk will consider the design of experiments for regressionmodels in which there is a single response with the explanatory variables lying ina simplex. One example is experiments on various compositions of glass such asthose considered by Martin, Bursnall, and Stillman (2001).Because of the highly symmetric nature of the simplex, the class of models thatare of interest, typically Scheff´e polynomials (Scheff´e 1958) are rather differentfrom those of standard regression analysis. The optimum designs are also ratherdifferent, inheriting a high degree of symmetry from the models.In the talk I will hope to discuss a variety of modes for such experiments. ThenI will discuss constrained mixture experiments, when not all the simplex is availablefor experimentation. Other important aspects include mixture experimentswith extra non-mixture factors and the blocking of mixture experiments.Much of the material is in Chapter 16 of Atkinson, Donev, and Tobias (2007).If time and my research allows, I would hope to finish with a few comments ondesign when the responses, rather than the explanatory variables, lie in a simplex.ReferencesAtkinson, A. C., A. N. Donev, and R. D. Tobias (2007). Optimum ExperimentalDesigns, with SAS. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Martin, R. J., M. C. Bursnall, and E. C. Stillman (2001). Further results onoptimal and efficient designs for constrained mixture experiments. In A. C.Atkinson, B. Bogacka, and A. Zhigljavsky (Eds.), Optimal Design 2000,pp. 225–239. Dordrecht: Kluwer.Scheff´e, H. (1958). Experiments with mixtures. Journal of the Royal StatisticalSociety, Ser. B 20, 344–360.1

Lyfe-cycle effects on household expenditures: A latent-variable approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life-cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Fuzzy coding in constrained ordinations

Canonical correspondence analysis and redundancy analysis are two methods of constrained ordination regularly used in the analysis of ecological data when several response variables (for example, species abundances) are related linearly to several explanatory variables (for example, environmental variables, spatial positions of samples). In this report I demonstrate the advantages of the fuzzy coding of explanatory variables: first, nonlinear relationships can be diagnosed; second, more variance in the responses can be explained; and third, in the presence of categorical explanatory variables (for example, years, regions) the interpretation of the resulting triplot ordination is unified because all explanatory variables are measured at a categorical level.