Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

Event-related brain potentials dissociate the developmental time-course of automatic numerical magnitude analysis and cognitive control functions during the first three years of primary school

In this study we set out to dissociate the developmental time course of automatic symbolic number processing and cognitive control functions in grade 1-3 British primary school children. Event-related potential (ERP) and behavioral data were collected in a physical size discrimination numerical Stroop task. Task-irrelevant numerical information was processed automatically already in grade 1. Weakening interference and strengthening facilitation indicated the parallel development of general cognitive control and automatic number processing. Relationships among ERP and behavioral effects suggest that control functions play a larger role in younger children and that automaticity of number processing increases from grade 1 to 3.

Structural damage detection using frequency response functions and neural networks

This paper illustrates the damage identification and condition assessment of a three story bookshelf structure using a new frequency response functions (FRFs) based damage index and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). A major obstacle of using measured frequency response function data is a large size input variables to ANNs. This problem is overcome by applying a data reduction technique called principal component analysis (PCA). In the proposed procedure, ANNs with their powerful pattern recognition and classification ability were used to extract damage information such as damage locations and severities from measured FRFs. Therefore, simple neural network models are developed, trained by Back Propagation (BP), to associate the FRFs with the damage or undamaged locations and severity of the damage of the structure. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated and validated by using the real data provided by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA. The illustrated results show that the PCA based artificial Neural Network method is suitable and effective for damage identification and condition assessment of building structures. In addition, it is clearly demonstrated that the accuracy of proposed damage detection method can also be improved by increasing number of baseline datasets and number of principal components of the baseline dataset.

Structural damage identification with noise polluted Frequency Response Functions (FRFs)

Damage detection in structures has become increasingly important in recent years. While a number of damage detection and localization methods have been proposed, very few attempts have been made to explore the structure damage with noise polluted data which is unavoidable effect in real world. The measurement data are contaminated by noise because of test environment as well as electronic devices and this noise tend to give error results with structural damage identification methods. Therefore it is important to investigate a method which can perform better with noise polluted data. This paper introduces a new damage index using principal component analysis (PCA) for damage detection of building structures being able to accept noise polluted frequency response functions (FRFs) as input. The FRF data are obtained from the function datagen of MATLAB program which is available on the web site of the IASC-ASCE (International Association for Structural Control– American Society of Civil Engineers) Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) Task Group. The proposed method involves a five-stage process: calculation of FRFs, calculation of damage index values using proposed algorithm, development of the artificial neural networks and introducing damage indices as input parameters and damage detection of the structure. This paper briefly describes the methodology and the results obtained in detecting damage in all six cases of the benchmark study with different noise levels. The proposed method is applied to a benchmark problem sponsored by the IASC-ASCE Task Group on Structural Health Monitoring, which was developed in order to facilitate the comparison of various damage identification methods. The illustrated results show that the PCA-based algorithm is effective for structural health monitoring with noise polluted FRFs which is of common occurrence when dealing with industrial structures.

Development of a high-speed sensing and detection system for automatic removal of packages with leaky seals from a high-speed food processing and packaging line

Contamination of packaged foods due to micro-organisms entering through air leaks can cause serious public health issues and cost companies large amounts of money due to product recalls, consumer impact and subsequent loss of market share. The main source of contamination is leaks in packaging which allow air, moisture and microorganisms to enter the package. In the food processing and packaging industry worldwide, there is an increasing demand for cost effective state of the art inspection technologies that are capable of reliably detecting leaky seals and delivering products at six-sigma. The new technology will develop non-destructive testing technology using digital imaging and sensing combined with a differential vacuum technique to assess seal integrity of food packages on a high-speed production line. The cost of leaky packages in Australian food industries is estimated close to AUD $35 Million per year. Contamination of packaged foods due to micro-organisms entering through air leaks can cause serious public health issues and cost companies large sums of money due to product recalls, compensation claims and loss of market share. The main source of contamination is leaks in packaging which allow air, moisture and micro-organisms to enter the package. Flexible plastic packages are widely used, and are the least expensive form of retaining the quality of the product. These packets can be used to seal, and therefore maximise, the shelf life of both dry and moist products. The seals of food packages need to be airtight so that the food content is not contaminated due to contact with microorganisms that enter as a result of air leakage. Airtight seals also extend the shelf life of packaged foods, and manufacturers attempt to prevent food products with leaky seals being sold to consumers. There are many current NDT (non-destructive testing) methods of testing the seal of flexible packages best suited to random sampling, and for laboratory purposes. The three most commonly used methods are vacuum/pressure decay, bubble test, and helium leak detection. Although these methods can detect very fine leaks, they are limited by their high processing time and are not viable in a production line. Two nondestructive in-line packaging inspection machines are currently available and are discussed in the literature review. The detailed design and development of the High-Speed Sensing and Detection System (HSDS) is the fundamental requirement of this project and the future prototype and production unit. Successful laboratory testing was completed and a methodical design procedure was needed for a successful concept. The Mechanical tests confirmed the vacuum hypothesis and seal integrity with good consistent results. Electrically, the testing also provided solid results to enable the researcher to move the project forward with a certain amount of confidence. The laboratory design testing allowed the researcher to confirm theoretical assumptions before moving into the detailed design phase. Discussion on the development of the alternative concepts in both mechanical and electrical disciplines enables the researcher to make an informed decision. Each major mechanical and electrical component is detailed through the research and design process. The design procedure methodically works through the various major functions both from a mechanical and electrical perspective. It opens up alternative ideas for the major components that although are sometimes not practical in this application, show that the researcher has exhausted all engineering and functionality thoughts. Further concepts were then designed and developed for the entire HSDS unit based on previous practice and theory. In the future, it would be envisaged that both the Prototype and Production version of the HSDS would utilise standard industry available components, manufactured and distributed locally. Future research and testing of the prototype unit could result in a successful trial unit being incorporated in a working food processing production environment. Recommendations and future works are discussed, along with options in other food processing and packaging disciplines, and other areas in the non-food processing industry.

Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

A comparison of safety climate and safety outcomes between construction and resource functions in a large case study organisation

The research described in this paper forms part of an in-depth investigation of safety culture in one of Australia’s largest construction companies. The research builds on a previous qualitative study with organisational safety leaders and further investigates how safety culture is perceived and experienced by organisational members, as well as how this relates to their safety behaviour and related outcomes at work. Participants were 2273 employees of the case study organisation, with 689 from the Construction function and 1584 from the Resources function. The results of several analyses revealed some interesting organisational variance on key measures. Specifically, the Construction function scored significantly higher on all key measures: safety climate, safety motivation, safety compliance, and safety participation. The results are discussed in terms of relevance in an applied research context.

An in-vitro 3-D cell culture model for studying pathomechanisms in AMD

Purpose To develop a novel 3-D cell culture model with the view to studying the pathomechanisms underlying the development of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Our central hypothesis is that the silk structural protein fibroin used in conjunction with cultured human cells can be used to mimic the structural relationships between the RPE and choriocapillaris in health and disease. Methods Co-cultures of human RPE cells (ARPE-19 cells grown in Miller’s medium) and microvascular endothelial cells (HMEC-1 cells grown in endothelial culture medium) were established on opposing sides of a synthetic Bruch’s membrane (3 microns thick) constructed from B mori silk fibroin. Cell attachment was facilitated by pre-coating the fibroin membrane with vitronectin (for ARPE-19 cells) and gelatin (for HMEC-1 cells) respectively. The effects of tropoelastin on attachment of ARPE-19 cells was also examined. Barrier function was examined by measurement of trans-epithelial resistance (TER) using a voltohmmeter (EVOM-2). The phagocytic activity of the synthetic RPE was tested using vitronectin-coated microspheres (2 micron diameter FluoSpheres). In some cultures, membrane defects were created by puncturing within a 24 G needle. The architecture of the synthetic tissue before and after wounding was examined by confocal microscopy after staining for ZO-1 and F-actin. Results The RPE layer of the 3D model developed a cobblestoned morphology (validated by staining for ZO-1 and F-actin), displayed barrier function (validated by measurement of TER) and demonstrated cytoplasmic uptake of vitronectin-coated microspheres. Attachment of ARPE-19 cells to fibroin was unaffected by tropoelastin. Microvascular endothelial cells attached well to the gelatin-coated surface of the fibroin membrane and remained physically separated from the overlaying RPE layer. The fibroin membranes were amenable to puncturing without collapse thus providing the opportunity to study transmembrane migration of the endothelial cells. Conclusions Synthetic Bruch’s membranes constructed from silk fibroin, vitronectin and gelatin, support the co-cultivation of RPE cells and microvascular endothelial cells. The resulting RPE layer displays functions similar to that of native RPE and the entire tri-layered structure displays potential to be used as an in vitro model of choroidal neovascularization.

Planar difference functions

In 1980 Alltop produced a family of cubic phase sequences that nearly meet the Welch bound for maximum non-peak correlation magnitude. This family of sequences were shown by Wooters and Fields to be useful for quantum state tomography. Alltop’s construction used a function that is not planar, but whose difference function is planar. In this paper we show that Alltop type functions cannot exist in fields of characteristic 3 and that for a known class of planar functions, x^3 is the only Alltop type function.

Principles of motor learning in ecological dynamics : a comment on functions of learning and the acquisition of motor skills (with reference to sport)

This paper provides a commentary on the contribution by Dr Chow who questioned whether the functions of learning are general across all categories of tasks or whether there are some task-particular aspects to the functions of learning in relation to task type. Specifically, they queried whether principles and practice for the acquisition of sport skills are different than what they are for musical, industrial, military and human factors skills. In this commentary we argue that ecological dynamics contains general principles of motor learning that can be instantiated in specific performance contexts to underpin learning design. In this proposal, we highlight the importance of conducting skill acquisition research in sport, rather than relying on empirical outcomes of research from a variety of different performance contexts. Here we discuss how task constraints of different performance contexts (sport, industry, military, music) provide different specific information sources that individuals use to couple their actions when performing and acquiring skills. We conclude by suggesting that his relationship between performance task constraints and learning processes might help explain the traditional emphasis on performance curves and performance outcomes to infer motor learning.

ICT in vocational education and training: a view of information and communication technology in vocational education in New Zealand

This report looks at opportunities in relation to what is either already available or starting to take off in Information and Communication Technology (ICT). ICT focuses on the entire system of information, communication, processes and knowledge within an organisation. It focuses on how technology can be implemented to serve the information and communication needs of people and organisations. An ICT system involves a combination of work practices, information, people and a range of technologies and applications organised to make the business or organisation fully functional and efficient, and to accomplish goals in an organisation. Our focus is on vocational, workbased education in New Zealand. It is not about eLearning, although we briefly touch on the topic. We provide a background on vocational education in New Zealand, cover what we consider to be key trends impacting workbased, vocational education and training (VET), and offer practical suggestions for leveraging better value from ICT initiatives across the main activities of an Industry Training Organisation (ITO). We use a learning value chain approach to demonstrate the main functions ITOs engage in and also use this approach as the basis for developing and prioritising an ICT strategy. Much of what we consider in this report is applicable to the wider tertiary education sector as it relates to life-long learning. We consider ICT as an enabler that: a) connects education businesses (all types including tertiary education institutions) to learners, their career decisions and their learning, and as well, b) enables those same businesses to run more efficiently. We suggest that these two sets of activities are considered as interconnected parts of the same education or training business ICT strategy.

Exploring the validity and predictive power of an extended volunteer functions inventory within the context of episodic skilled volunteering by retirees

The current study examined the structure of the volunteer functions inventory within a sample of older individuals (N = 187). The career items were replaced with items examining the concept of continuity of work, a potentially more useful and relevant concept for this population. Factor analysis supported a four factor solution, with values, social and continuity emerging as single factors and enhancement and protective items loading together on a single factor. Understanding items did not load highly on any factor. The values and continuity functions were the only dimensions to emerge as predictors of intention to volunteer. This research has important implications for understanding the motivation of older adults to engage in contemporary volunteering settings.