An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Is maximizing resilience compatible with established ecological goal functions?

Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] used a simple phytoplanktonzooplankton-nutrient model and a genetic algorithm to determine the parameter values that would maximize the value of certain goal functions. These goal functions were to maximize biomass, maximize flux, maximize flux to biomass ratio, and maximize resilience. It was found that maximizing goal functions maximized resilience. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] result was indicative of a general ecosystem principle, or peculiar to the model and parameter ranges used. This study successfully replicated the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] experiment for a number of different model types, however, a different interpretation of the results is made. A new metric, concordance, was devised to describe the agreement between goal functions. It was found that resilience has the highest concordance of all goal functions trialled. for most model types. This implies that resilience offers a compromise between the established ecological goal functions. The parameter value range used is found to affect the parameter versus goal function relationships. Local maxima and minima affected the relationship between parameters and goal functions, and between goal functions. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The gambin model provides a superior fit to species abundance distributions with a single free parameter : evidence, implementation and interpretation

The species abundance distribution (SAD) has been a central focus of community ecology for over fifty years, and is currently the subject of widespread renewed interest. The gambin model has recently been proposed as a model that provides a superior fit to commonly preferred SAD models. It has also been argued that the model's single parameter (α) presents a potentially informative ecological diversity metric, because it summarises the shape of the SAD in a single number. Despite this potential, few empirical tests of the model have been undertaken, perhaps because the necessary methods and software for fitting the model have not existed. Here, we derive a maximum likelihood method to fit the model, and use it to undertake a comprehensive comparative analysis of the fit of the gambin model. The functions and computational code to fit the model are incorporated in a newly developed free-to-download R package (gambin). We test the gambin model using a variety of datasets and compare the fit of the gambin model to fits obtained using the Poisson lognormal, logseries and zero-sum multinomial distributions. We found that gambin almost universally provided a better fit to the data and that the fit was consistent for a variety of sample grain sizes. We demonstrate how α can be used to differentiate intelligibly between community structures of Azorean arthropods sampled in different land use types. We conclude that gambin presents a flexible model capable of fitting a wide variety of observed SAD data, while providing a useful index of SAD form in its single fitted parameter. As such, gambin has wide potential applicability in the study of SADs, and ecology more generally.

Long-term monitoring across elevational gradients to assess ecological hypothesis : a description of standardized sampling methods in oceanic islands and first results

We are launching a long-term study to characterize the biodiversity at different elevations in several Azorean Islands. Our aim is to use the Azores as a model archipelago to answer the fundamental question of what generates and maintains the global spatial heterogeneity of diversity in islands and to be able to understand the dynamics of change across time. An extensive, standardized sampling protocol was applied in most of the remnant forest fragments of five Azorean Islands. Fieldwork followed BRYOLAT methodology for the collection of bryophytes, ferns and other vascular plant species. A modified version of the BALA protocol was used for arthropods. A total of 70 plots (10 m x 10 m) are already established in five islands (Flores, Pico, São Jorge, Terceira and São Miguel), all respecting an elevation step of 200 m, resulting in 24 stations examined in Pico, 12 in Terceira, 10 in Flores, 12 in São Miguel and 12 in São Jorge. The first results regarding the vascular plants inventory include 138 vascular species including taxa from Lycopodiophyta (N=2), Pteridophyta (N=27), Pinophyta (N=2) and Magnoliophyta (N=107). In this contribution we also present the main research question for the next six years within the 2020 Horizon.

Social contextual factors contributing to child and adolescent labor: an ecological analysis

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between social contextual factors and child and adolescent labor. METHODS: Population-based cohort study carried out with 2,512 families living in 23 subareas of a large urban city in Brazil from 2000 to 2002. A random one-stage cluster sampling was used to select families. Data were obtained through individual household interviews using questionnaires. The annual cumulative incidence of child and adolescent labor was estimated for each district. New child and adolescent labor cases were those who had their first job over the two-year follow-up. The annual cumulative incidence of child and adolescent labor was the response variable and predictors were contextual factors such as lack of social support, social deprivation, unstructured family, perceived violence, poor school quality, poor environment conditions, and poor public services. Pearson's correlation and multiple linear regression were used to assess the associations. RESULTS: There were selected 943 families corresponding to 1,326 non-working children and adolescents aged 8 to 17 years. Lack of social support, social deprivation, perceived violence were all positively and individually associated with the annual cumulative incidence of child and adolescent labor. In the multiple linear regression model, however, only lack of social support and perceived violence in the neighborhood were positively associated to child and adolescent labor. No effect was found for poor school quality, poor environment conditions, poor public services or unstructured family. CONCLUSIONS: Poverty reduction programs can reduce the contextual factors associated with child and adolescent labor. Violence reduction programs and strengthening social support at the community level may contribute to reduce CAL.

Integrated ecological-economic modelling and assessment aproach for coastal ecosystem management

Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology, New University of Lisbon, for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Sciences

A crop-land allocation model: A case study in La Rioja, Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Valuation of marine and coastal ecosystems: The role of ecological-economic modeling

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Forest structure of artificial islands in the Tucuruí dam reservoir in northern Brazil: a test core-area model

Construction of hydroelectric dams in tropical regions has been contributing significantly to forest fragmentation. Alterations at edges of forest fragments impact plant communities that suffer increases in tree damage and dead, and decreases in seedling recruitment. This study aimed to test the core-area model in a fragmented landscape caused by construction of a hydroelectric power plant in the Brazilian Amazon. We studied variations in forest structure between the margin and interiors of 17 islands of 8-100 hectares in the Tucuruí dam reservoir, in two plots (30 and >100m from the margin) per island. Mean tree density, basal area, seedling density and forest cover did not significantly differ between marginal and interior island plots. Also, no significant differences were found in liana density, dead tree or damage for margin and interior plots. The peculiar topographic conditions associated with the matrix habitat and shapes of the island seem to extend edge effects to the islands' centers independently of the island size, giving the interior similar physical microclimatic conditions as at the edges. We propose a protocol for assessing the ecological impacts of edge effects in fragments of natural habitat surrounded by induced (artificial) edges. The protocol involves three steps: (1) identification of focal taxa of particular conservation or management interest, (2) measurement of an "edge function" that describes the response of these taxa to induced edges, and (3) use of a "Core-Area Model" to extrapolate edge function parameters to existing or novel situations.

Zebrafish embryos as in vivo model for toxicity evaluation: screening of nanoparticle formulations DODAB:MO and DODAC:MO

Dissertação de mestrado em Molecular Genetics

Ecological economics

Ecological economics is a recently developed field, which sees the economy as a subsystem of a larger finite global ecosystem. Ecological economists question the sustainability of the economy because of its environmental impacts and its material and energy requirements, and also because of the growth of population. Attempts at assigning money values to environmental services and losses, and attempts at correcting macroeconomic accounting, are part of ecological economics, but its main thrust is rather in developing physical indicators and indexes of sustainability. Ecological economists also work on the relations between property rights and resource management, they model the interactions between the economy and the environment, they study ecological distribution conflicts, they use management tools such as integrated environmental assessment and multi-criteria decision aids, and they propose new instruments of environmental policy.

Ecological and Economic Impacts within the Environmental Input-Output Framework

The environmental input-output approach reveals the channels through which the environmental burdens of production activities are transmitted throughout the economy. This paper uses the input-output framework and analyses the changes in Spanish emission multipliers during the period 1995-2000. By decomposing the global changes in multipliers into different components, it is possible to evaluate separately the economic and ecological impacts captured by the environmental input-output model. Specifically, in this study we distinguish between the effects on multipliers caused by changes in emission coefficients (the ecological impacts) and the effects on multipliers caused by changes in technical coefficients (the economic impacts). Our results show a significant improvement in the ecological impacts of production activities, which contributed negatively to changes in emission multipliers. They also show a deterioration in the economic impacts, which contributed positively to changes in emission multipliers. Together, these two effects lead to a small reduction in global multipliers during the period of analysis. Our results also show significant differences in the individual behaviour of different sectors in terms of their contribution to multiplier changes. Since there are considerable differences in the way individual sectors affect the changes in emission levels, and in the intensity of these effects, this means that the final effects will basically depend on the activity considered. Keywords: emission multipliers, multipliers' changes, ecological impacts, economic impacts.

Ecological sustainability and urban form

One controversial idea present in the debate on urban sustainability is that urban sprawl is an ecological stressing problem. We have tested this popular assumption by measuring the ecological footprint of commuting and housing of the 163 municipalities of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region and by relating the estimated values with residential density and accessibility, the fundamental determinant of residential density according to the Monocentric City Model.

Deliberative ecological economics: emergence and research issues

We discuss the recent emergence of "deliberative ecological economics", a field that highlights the potential of deliberation for improving environmental governance. We locate the emergence of this literature in the long concern in ecological economics over the policy implications of limited views of human action and its encounter with deliberative democracy scholarship and the model of communicative rationality as an alternative to utilitarianism. Considering criticisms over methods used and the focus of research in deliberative decision-making, we put forward a research agenda for deliberative ecological economics. Given the promising potential of deliberative processes for improving the effectiveness and legitimacy of environmental decision-making, work in this area could help advance both theory and practice in environmental governance.

Map of ecological networks for landscape planning

This paper presents a method based on a geographical information system (GIS) to model ecological networks in a fragmented landscape. The ecological networks are generated with the help of a landscape model (which integrate human activities) and with a wildlife dispersal model. The main results are maps which permit the analysis and the understanding of the impact of human activities on wildlife dispersal. Three applications in a study area are presented: ecological networks at the landscape scale, conflicting areas at the farmstead scale and ecological distance between biotopes. These applications show the flexibility of the model and its potential to give information on ecological networks at different planning scales.